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GBP/USD outlook

  • #481
  • Aug 25, 2012 5:58pm Aug 25, 2012 5:58pm
Well, looking at this weekly congestion, if this monthl closes above the highlighted trigger line, I think I'm as bullish as all hell.

Never before has so much money been printed and it seems we have become used to it.

I totally agree with the comments in the Rumour, gossips and fun thread, devaluation wil continue and the rich guys are buying up Gold etc because they know what's coming. I have thoughts this same thing since 2009 when Money and Markets helped me switch the light on as to the BS going on.

Anyway, looking forward to seeing if August can close strong and set up September.
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  • #482
  • Aug 25, 2012 6:15pm Aug 25, 2012 6:15pm
I still think their is a decent chance the Fed may help out Europe.
If that happens, look out...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #483
  • Aug 26, 2012 8:28pm Aug 26, 2012 8:28pm
I have no confidence in my capacity as a daytrader so I closed out my cluster of buys positioned before the breakout to minimize damage should we get a total bearish reversal.
Leaving top one open this week I think unless we get a strong weekly close back inside the range.

Tiny trades, let's see...

Waiting for next swing signal...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #484
  • Aug 28, 2012 6:18pm Aug 28, 2012 6:18pm
Well, this is a messed up week for trading.

Still looks like a retest of the breakout at the moment.

Closed out my hedged short at BE and opened a long at 5807 for 14 pips HOORAY!!

Anyway...

Waiting to see if we get a close above my 5780 trigger line or so to finish the week/month on a new high after the breakout retest to hopefully set up September for more upward movement.

The highlighted zone starting at 5740 is an area I am watching for a return of bearish strength whereupon I will hedge this mofo again ha ha ha....

NOTE: These are not system swing trades, just BS trades based on my own analysis, so take with a huge grain of salt eh...
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  • #485
  • Aug 30, 2012 12:12am Aug 30, 2012 12:12am
I'm booooored
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #486
  • Aug 31, 2012 5:09pm Aug 31, 2012 5:09pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Well, this is a messed up week for trading.

Still looks like a retest of the breakout at the moment.

Closed out my hedged short at BE and opened a long at 5807 for 14 pips HOORAY!!

Anyway...

Waiting to see if we get a close above my 5780 trigger line or so to finish the week/month on a new high after the breakout retest to hopefully set up September for more upward movement.

The highlighted zone starting at 5740 is an area I am watching for a return of bearish strength whereupon I will hedge this mofo again ha ha ha.......
Just passing the time heading into the weekend with some loose speculation.

Well, IF that RED channel is going to play a role in the future direction of the Pound/Dollar, what will that take, considering the REAL financial situation in Europe and elsewhere???

When everywhere is in the crapper and with globally link finances, trade, economies suffering from each others poor management, what choice do they have but to come together and work something out for everyone's sake.

If Europe goes (the worlds largest economy), what does that spell for everyone else. How the f#^k can any nation pay off its debts in a global depression???

Will they "Guarantee" investor returns and just keep flooding the place with "extra" money until hope is restored?? Will they do this then deal with the inflationary fallout later??

Let's face it, if they are going to do whatever it takes to keep Europe afloat and simply inflate everything, then why miss out right?? If your currency is soon not going to be worth much, then missing the gravy train is hardly going to help your situation.

Hardcore, no ifs, no buts, investor guarantees, I wonder...

I really am a fundi dummy, I don't know shit from a frying pan, so if anyone with real fundi knowledge has anything to post, feel free, I'm just thinking out loud about what seems to be a possible logical scenerio.

My chart and weekly PA tells me they will work something out (for now) and it will be risk on big time, it is currently being priced in from what I can see.

Let's see...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #487
  • Sep 1, 2012 12:23am Sep 1, 2012 12:23am
We has closed clear of my weekly channel, but for a number of reasons, I am watching 1.57 like a Hawke on the channel retest if we get one.

Multiple confluences on the 4hr, Daily and Weekly...

200SMA and 55EMA shown. I hope I don't have to point out which is which


1.57 would be the 50fib from the last major swing low on the 4hr and daily TF.
It would be a retest of the 200SMA on ALL TF's shown from 4hr - Weekly and the 55EMA on the daily also.

It is also a round number and a good support area on the Daily and Weekly.

Interesting...
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  • #488
  • Sep 1, 2012 11:49am Sep 1, 2012 11:49am
Quoting Ill-b-back
We has closed clear of my weekly channel, but for a number of reasons, I am watching 1.57 like a Hawke on the channel retest if we get one.

Multiple confluences on the 4hr, Daily and Weekly...

200SMA and 55EMA shown. I hope I don't have to point out which is which


1.57 would be the 50fib from the last major swing low on the 4hr and daily TF.
It would be a retest of the 200SMA on ALL TF's shown from 4hr - Weekly and the 55EMA on the daily also.

It is also a round number and a good support area on the Daily and Weekly....



I like your journal. It's much like mine the way you discuss your thoughts along the way. We see things alike.

Week close up, Week zoomed out to show channel lines and 12H with a few thoughts.

Hope you don't mind the post
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Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #489
  • Sep 1, 2012 3:08pm Sep 1, 2012 3:08pm
Quoting albchr


I like your journal. It's much like mine the way you discuss your thoughts along the way. We see things alike.

Week close up, Week zoomed out to show channel lines and 12H with a few thoughts.

Hope you don't mind the post
No not at all man, post away, I like others thoughts.
In an earlier post/chart, I had the same ascending channel as your too chart, except I connected to tips, I'll have another look at it as for some reason I removed it. Probably because I got distracted by my weekly channel breakout.

Anyway, with the QE spike looking less fundamentally certain and the techs now lining up (voodoo ) I'm interested in what this week brings and where we are positioned for NFP

Cheers mate...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #490
  • Sep 1, 2012 3:25pm Sep 1, 2012 3:25pm
Quoting albchr


I like your journal. It's much like mine the way you discuss your thoughts along the way. We see things alike.

Week close up, Week zoomed out to show channel lines and 12H with a few thoughts.

Hope you don't mind the post
Your daily TL retest is now lining up fairly well with my analysis thanks to the delay in retrace and now Ben has given a fundamental justification. Due to the TL downward slope however, we may nudge just below 5730 on the retrace (I hope)

Anyway, I can't wait to begin swing trading again, it's all I can do with confidence.
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  • #491
  • Sep 1, 2012 4:45pm Sep 1, 2012 4:45pm
Shit, was just uploading my last image when explorer stopped working.
DAMN, now have to start again

Cleaner charts this time:

Monthly:
Closed below 20ema. We also have good history of monthly cande reaction at a current 50 fib 1.57.

Weekly:
200sma and 20ema are both below around 1.57 region waiting for a possible retest after a confirmed candle close ouside of my channel.

Waiting to see if we get a rejection of some sort from the monthly 20ema to retest below.

I may close out my short if we get close to 1.57 and leave the long above. Still undecided on this
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  • #492
  • Sep 1, 2012 6:05pm Sep 1, 2012 6:05pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
We has closed clear of my weekly channel, but for a number of reasons, I am watching 1.57 like a Hawke on the channel retest if we get one.

Multiple confluences on the 4hr, Daily and Weekly...

200SMA and 55EMA shown. I hope I don't have to point out which is which


1.57 would be the 50fib from the last major swing low on the 4hr and daily TF.
It would be a retest of the 200SMA on ALL TF's shown from 4hr - Weekly and the 55EMA on the daily also.

It is also a round number and a good support area on the Daily and...
Shows a weekly QE hopeful breakout bar, followed by Bens weekly "indecision" bar with no new high.
Retest is a good one to watch out for.

I wonder in how many ways I can express my thoughts
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #493
  • Sep 1, 2012 8:36pm Sep 1, 2012 8:36pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Shows a weekly QE hopeful breakout bar, followed by Bens weekly "indecision" bar with no new high.
Retest is a good one to watch out for.

I wonder in how many ways I can express my thoughts
How about the only way you haven't? "I think it will do this __________!!
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #494
  • Sep 1, 2012 9:38pm Sep 1, 2012 9:38pm
Quoting albchr
How about the only way you haven't? "I think it will do this __________!!
I could try that but I don't have forex confidence without swing trading.
The lower TF's suggest we are heading down.
In the past, when I say I think it will do THIS, the market does THAT, it's as if "someone " is watching my posts.

I'm not showing my hand anymore, just looking at possibilities but we know what I am looking out for.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #495
  • Sep 1, 2012 10:26pm Sep 1, 2012 10:26pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
No not at all man, post away, I like others thoughts.
In an earlier post/chart, I had the same ascending channel as your too chart, except I connected to tips, I'll have another look at it as for some reason I removed it. Probably because I got distracted by my weekly channel breakout.

Anyway, with the QE spike looking less fundamentally certain and the techs now lining up (voodoo ) I'm interested in what this week brings and where we are positioned for NFP

Cheers mate...
I hand draw channel lines and in most cases, I also connect tips. But in situations like that weekly mid line (red) one, when I see an obvious area price respected, I just draw it by eye through the best "average" of as many wicks as possible to come up with the line. So yep, every once in a while the start or end of the line can be out in space...LOL

I've actually started doing this "averaging" with TL's as well. I used to be pretty strict about them, Say it's descending, drawing from a top to a top and never changing it until it was actually broken (not breached). Now after a few tops along the way, I'll pull it through any (Breaches) to the next available top. As long as it doesn't go through any higher closes, I leave it.

I find subsequent PA "seems" to respect that averaged line a bit better. I just started this end of July so I only have about a months data on this and only on 4 pairs...GU, GJ, EU, EJ. SO far, it looks like a tighter average line. After a full cycle of seasons I'll know better.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #496
  • Sep 1, 2012 10:33pm Sep 1, 2012 10:33pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
I could try that but I don't have forex confidence without swing trading.
The lower TF's suggest we are heading down.
In the past, when I say I think it will do THIS, the market does THAT, it's as if "someone " is watching my posts.

I'm not showing my hand anymore, just looking at possibilities but we know what I am looking out for.
....I know exactly what you mean brother...lol. And the pisser of it is? There IS "someone" watching. The universe, your energy, spirit, subconsious, whatever you want to call it. The second you put that thought energy out there, it's already too late!! LOL

I think that's why I can't fake it our either by saying..."it's gonna do THIS! (expecting it to do THAT), play it that way, and then it really does do THIS!!

So I put that thought out there and "IT" knew it. You can define "IT" anyway you like.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #497
  • Sep 1, 2012 11:04pm Sep 1, 2012 11:04pm
Quoting albchr
....I know exactly what you mean brother...lol. And the pisser of it is? There IS "someone" watching. The universe, your energy, spirit, subconsious, whatever you want to call it. The second you put that thought energy out there, it's already too late!! LOL

I think that's why I can't fake it our either by saying..."it's gonna do THIS! (expecting it to do THAT), play it that way, and then it really does do THIS!!

So I put that thought out there and "IT" knew it. You can define "IT" anyway you like.
Yep, pretty much...
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #498
  • Sep 2, 2012 1:01am Sep 2, 2012 1:01am
What is the next week's GBP/USD outlook ?
Oooooooooopppppppppssssssss
  • #499
  • Sep 2, 2012 1:05am Sep 2, 2012 1:05am
Quoting Crucifix
What is the next week's GBP/USD outlook ?
The previous 2 pages are full of the possible outlook. For next week and beyond.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #500
  • Sep 2, 2012 3:29pm Sep 2, 2012 3:29pm
WOW.
There's now posts from 3 different people all on the 1 page

It's getting quite busy in my little corner of FF world

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It's total Gridlock Man...

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