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Go against it

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 21, 2012 4:51am Aug 21, 2012 4:51am
English is not my mother language so sorry for my english if it looks strange.

It's said more than 95% people lose their money in FX market.In another word 5% people win.
So,how to be the 5%?

We can confiently belive that:
1:the 95% and the 5% behave differently
2:all the 95% themselves behave the same
So if we go against what the 95% always do we can hopefully become the 5%.

I think what the 95% always do is what we always say.For example:
ALWAYS TRADE WITH A STOPLOSS.
A GOOD WIN:LOSS RATE IS IMPORTANT.
TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.
so on...

What will happen if we go against those stuffs?
something like that...
NEVER TRADE WITH A STOPLOSS.
A GOOD WIN:LOSS RATE IS NOTHING.
TREND IS NOT YOUR FRIEND.
so on...

I think most of those red words is not right,but a few of them may be right.If we really find it we will be the 5%.let's try it out.

A good example of my idea is the "E.&O.E. " by forexcube.
A GOOD WIN:LOSS RATE IS NOTHING.so we trade 1:10 and make lots of pips.

have fun
Hanxiong M.
  • #2
  • Aug 21, 2012 5:21am Aug 21, 2012 5:21am
[quote=mahanxiong;5944410
have fun
Hanxiong M.[/quote]

could you please give example
  • #3
  • Aug 21, 2012 6:08am Aug 21, 2012 6:08am
Quoting mahanxiong
NEVER TRADE WITH A STOPLOSS.
A GOOD WIN:LOSS RATE IS NOTHING.
TREND IS NOT YOUR FRIEND.
Just test your rule with live account. You'll see

People lose because of their mind, not the system.
  • #4
  • Aug 21, 2012 6:16am Aug 21, 2012 6:16am
Quoting duyk20
Just test your rule with live account. You'll see

People lose because of their mind, not the system.
could you please show me your system
  • #5
  • Aug 21, 2012 6:21am Aug 21, 2012 6:21am
Haha, all I can say is good luck.

Tell us what happens. Just don't lose your life savings
  • #6
  • Aug 21, 2012 6:46am Aug 21, 2012 6:46am
Quoting jasakreatif
could you please show me your system
My system? When I see a pin bar on 1h chart in a support/resistance level. I get into the market with the direction of the pin bar.

Simple.

  • #7
  • Aug 21, 2012 7:13am Aug 21, 2012 7:13am
Quoting duyk20
My system? When I see a pin bar on 1h chart in a support/resistance level. I get into the market with the direction of the pin bar.

Simple.

aaa.. top bottom trade... why you lough ?
  • #8
  • Aug 21, 2012 7:32am Aug 21, 2012 7:32am
Contrarian investing is well documented. The problem is, everyone wants to be contrary, which makes it the majority. So maybe you should think like the 95% when the 95% are thinking like the 5%. Except when the 95% is 50%... and you should flip a coin.

Free markets are without restraint. The key is to get your piece and get out... except when everyone else is doing the same.

  • #9
  • Aug 21, 2012 8:02am Aug 21, 2012 8:02am
I see where you are coming from on this issue and particularly as following the rules usually leaves you at a loss but there is one rule that must stay inviolate.

that is regarding the use of SLs. If you don't use them then you are risking your entire account on every trade. An adjustment in this volatile market can send you to the cleaners so setting one somewhere is a must. Where to set it is a bigger discussion and I suspect I would have a bigger win ratio if I had set mine far further out.

Just not setting them at all will wipe you out at some point for sure.

  • #10
  • Aug 21, 2012 8:46am Aug 21, 2012 8:46am
95% don't do what 95% say you should , that's the problem..

close early, hold losers too long.... simple as that
tradewith60
  • #11
  • Aug 21, 2012 9:02am Aug 21, 2012 9:02am
It's just an idea and i don't know if it's right.
It's here to discuss.I don't have a profitable system in this idea.

I belive backtest result of ea in M15+ TF,and I will find the ea that lose and re-code it to make trade opposite.
I will try this way and post the result later.

after i think we will have more intersting thing to dicuss.

hanxiong M.
  • #12
  • Aug 21, 2012 1:07pm Aug 21, 2012 1:07pm
The problem is 95% of traders are under-capitalised so they risk more than they should, over-trade and take risks.

When your account size means that a 40 pips gain nets you 4K profit you only look for the best set-ups and take profits when you can and cut your losses quickly.

There is no reason why you can't trade the same way with a small account but when 40 pips is only worth $4 you are less inclined to stick to your rules.

Just my 2 cents
  • #13
  • Aug 21, 2012 7:49pm Aug 21, 2012 7:49pm
Quoting willf
The problem is 95% of traders are under-capitalised so they risk more than they should, over-trade and take risks.

When your account size means that a 40 pips gain nets you 4K profit you only look for the best set-ups and take profits when you can and cut your losses quickly.

There is no reason why you can't trade the same way with a small account but when 40 pips is only worth $4 you are less inclined to stick to your rules.

Just my 2 cents
very true, what ever is your systems.. 95% lose trader need big margin more than 1K and above to survive.
  • #14
  • Aug 22, 2012 12:20am Aug 22, 2012 12:20am
Quoting mahanxiong
English is not my mother language so sorry for my english if it looks strange.

It's said more than 95% people lose their money in FX market.In another word 5% people win.
So,how to be the 5%?

W
How would you go about getting the stats, losing positions and other relevant info?
  • #15
  • Aug 22, 2012 3:45am Aug 22, 2012 3:45am
trend is your friend reversal is your nightmare.

hold losers too long? hold losers so long they become winners.

setting unrealistic trading goals and then over trade when volatility falls.

hold losers too short which makes you take more losses.

100% no lose system... everyone gets drunk once in awhile.

90% losers 10% winners = forex winner.

death by 1000 paper cuts is still death.

death by jumping off lack of margin cliff is still death.

Knowing "when" whether it be to open, close or sit... determines who wins / loses. The rest is just math.
  • #16
  • Aug 22, 2012 4:25am Aug 22, 2012 4:25am
Quoting duyk20
People lose because of their mind, not the system.
This basically summed up what most need.


Btw, I am curious where does the stats of 95% losers and 5% winners come from?

Eg, Out of 100 accounts, maybe there are 5 traders with 19 accounts(95%) fell in the losing pool, while 5 accounts shared by a lot of traders which made the 5% winning pool. Be optimistic, possibly there are more winners than losers.

I lost 8 accounts(small accounts for testing systems), but I won on 2 accounts consistently, with overall net positive. The general stats shall not be perceive like this.

Doing the opposite of a loser doesn't theoretically reflect a winner, but the above quote by duky20 summed it up.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #17
  • Aug 22, 2012 6:05am Aug 22, 2012 6:05am
Quoting kinspk
This basically summed up what most need.


Btw, I am curious where does the stats of 95% losers and 5% winners come from?

Eg, Out of 100 accounts, maybe there are 5 traders with 19 accounts(95%) fell in the losing pool, while 5 accounts shared by a lot of traders which made the 5% winning pool. Be optimistic, possibly there are more winners than losers.

I lost 8 accounts(small accounts for testing systems), but I won on 2 accounts consistently, with overall net positive. The general stats shall not be perceive like this.

Doing the opposite of...
I think the 95%/5% winners/losers came out of some brokers stats of their clients. Meaning, if they have 1000 clients 950 lost 50 wins,. But in money could be that the 5% winner is making double of what the losers are losing.

Most Good size brokers have may different type of accounts... say micro, pro, professional.. whatever they call them... but micro accounts are 50 000 and the other levels 100. so It really does not matter.

Point is, now, the whole thing is almost like a myth. Mostly coming out of our friendly crap seller and marketers... Be in the 5% group!!! with This...BS, etc.

Someone already mentioned the main reason why so many number of speculated traders fail. Under capitalized and trading way above their financial ability. This game is all about how long can you hold your purchases.

Why sell below our purchased price?

J.
  • #18
  • Aug 22, 2012 8:05am Aug 22, 2012 8:05am
[quote=mahanxiong;5944410]
NEVER TRADE WITH A STOPLOSS.
A GOOD WIN:LOSS RATE IS NOTHING.
TREND IS NOT YOUR FRIEND.

Stop loss orders are not that important as long as you know when to get out market, limit orders are essential to open a position though.
Trend is important, but you have to know how to identify the real trend and how to go with it.
  • #19
  • Aug 22, 2012 8:56am Aug 22, 2012 8:56am
95% or whatever the number may be, fail because of lack of discipline in controlling emotions and yourself. Psychology is a huge part of trading, eventually moreso than the trading technique you use, and most people who begin trading are not conditioned to deal with the hour to hour, day to day stress fluctuations of trading. This involves the stress of losing, the euphoria of winning, having a string of 10 losers. If your a long term trader, thats tough, 10 trades might be 2 months.

In reality trading should be robotic for an ideal environment, but psychology changes the whole game. It also takes time, a lot of people think trading is a get in, win big thing. Trading is just like becoming a doctor, an engineer, anything high level really, it takes years and years to perfect the skill, years of staring at charts with the INTENTION and FOCUS of becoming great.
  • #20
  • Aug 22, 2012 11:57am Aug 22, 2012 11:57am
Quoting duyk20
My system? When I see a pin bar on 1h chart in a support/resistance level. I get into the market with the direction of the pin bar.

Simple.

Can you show me her your latest trades you have taken as pinbars on hr1 please with your charts.
Thanks.
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