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GBP/JPY

  • #181
  • Aug 21, 2012 6:27am Aug 21, 2012 6:27am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
I think there is a mistake in color, as Public Sector Net Borrowing; if Actual is < then Forecast then it is good for currency. Or am I interpreting this wrong?
ok the color is wrong that is the difference of languages ​​I speak Spanish and there is a time in the interpretation and may result in loss of silver greetings
  • #182
  • Aug 21, 2012 6:33am Aug 21, 2012 6:33am
Quoting forexarg
ok the color is wrong that is the difference of languages ​​I speak Spanish and there is a time in the interpretation and may result in loss of silver greetings
No, the color is right, I corrected myself. My native language is Slovene so I have problems, too. Big traders that move the market make decision where to go with the Price. You need to follow them and not blindly follow the news. Good luck!
  • #183
  • Aug 21, 2012 7:22am Aug 21, 2012 7:22am
I appr your way of thinking. I also have been moving towards longer timeframes. been using daily but will start using weekly also. I agree looking ofr potential daily/weekly hi lows in advance gives you a fighting chance!

(QUOTE) I recently started looking at the weekly chart. Months ago even Daily chart was simply to much for me. But now I realize that price most of the time makes 200-450 pip move per week and I try to see starting and ending of weekly bars. I am just learning myself, too. But it is Tuesday, Price confirmed what appears to be strong Trendline and only made 45 pips this week (before this large brake up North). So if the Price is going for 125.5 that will be less then 100 pips this week. Price can't just stay there since in the last 9 years price made less then 150 pip move only in 8 weeks. Of course nothing in FX is fixed and sure and Price can drop through the recent Trendline and continue dropping for hundred's of pips, but is it likely?
  • #184
  • Aug 21, 2012 7:23am Aug 21, 2012 7:23am
yes, this seems opposite!


Quoting IndigoPingvi
I think there is a mistake in color, as Public Sector Net Borrowing; if Actual is < then Forecast then it is good for currency. Or am I interpreting this wrong?

Edit, nope, I am wrong:A positive number indicates a budget deficit, a negative number indicates a surplus.

I guess you just have to go with the Big guys that move the market
  • #185
  • Aug 21, 2012 7:26am Aug 21, 2012 7:26am
everyday I get up and see that big move you londons have done and get to figure out what to do for the day
  • #186
  • Aug 21, 2012 7:31am Aug 21, 2012 7:31am
So this week would you go with low of 124.133 (10ma) to @126.5 as possible weekly range?

Quoting IndigoPingvi
But now I realize that price most of the time makes 200-450 pip move per week and I try to see starting and ending of weekly bars. I am just learning myself, too. But it is Tuesday, Price confirmed what appears to be strong Trendline and only made 45 pips this week (before this large brake up North). .
  • #187
  • Aug 21, 2012 7:43am Aug 21, 2012 7:43am
Quoting zephyru
So this week would you go with low of 124.133 (10ma) to @126.5 as possible weekly range?
No, for the start of the Weekly bar I would take 20 EMA Weekly which is almost identical to 153 EMA Daily (124.5 area). Price has a lot of obstacles on the way up, I have no idea till where it is about to go, we almost hit 53 EMA Weekly at 125.5. If Price goes through this we have 2 more levels of trouble, then upper Trendline of a Channel, all together 350 pips. It is doable for this pair on Weekly, but who knows. A simple speech can push everything in the opposite way I am trailing my 7 buy positions so whatever happens some money will be made.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #188
  • Aug 21, 2012 8:01am Aug 21, 2012 8:01am
Thanks. agreed lots of obstacles, but momentum is up. 125.75 first to negotiate.

Quoting IndigoPingvi
No, for the start of the Weekly bar I would take 20 EMA Weekly which is almost identical to 153 EMA Daily (124.5 area). Price has a lot of obstacles on the way up, I have no idea till where it is about to go, we almost hit 53 EMA Weekly at 125.5. If Price goes through this we have 2 more levels of trouble, then upper Trendline of a Channel, all together 350 pips. It is doable for this pair on Weekly, but who knows. A simple speech can push everything in the opposite way I am trailing my 7 buy positions so whatever happens some money will be...
  • #189
  • Aug 21, 2012 8:12am Aug 21, 2012 8:12am
Quoting zephyru
Thanks. agreed lots of obstacles, but momentum is up. 125.75 first to negotiate.
Looking at the 4H chart we maybe had Bullish flag. From the start of the pole 123.00 till the flag is about 150 pips. If I understand the Flag concept correctly, you take another 150 pips above the Flag as a possible target, and that is 126.4 area. Just a thought...
  • #190
  • Aug 21, 2012 8:19am Aug 21, 2012 8:19am
Another way I understand flags is it allows the moving averages to catch up with price. On shorter time frames this is very easy to see.

Quoting IndigoPingvi
Looking at the 4H chart we maybe had Bullish flag. From the start of the pole 123.00 till the flag is about 150 pips. If I understand the Flag concept correctly, you take another 150 pips above the Flag as a possible target, and that is 126.4 area. Just a thought...
  • #191
  • Aug 21, 2012 8:26am Aug 21, 2012 8:26am
Quoting zephyru
Another way I understand flags is it allows the moving averages to catch up with price. On shorter time frames this is very easy to see.
Yes! That's exactly what I meant in some previous post when I said that Price doesn't move without EMAs as they provide liquidity.
  • #192
  • Aug 22, 2012 3:07am Aug 22, 2012 3:07am
Price is between a resistance and a support level, 125.50 and 124.90
1h QQE is crossing upwards, we might see a crack at the resistance and if it breaks then we could see 126.80 area

http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/1610/18615171.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #193
  • Aug 22, 2012 3:36am Aug 22, 2012 3:36am
seems to have stalled now though
  • #194
  • Aug 22, 2012 3:48am Aug 22, 2012 3:48am
Quoting grandad
seems to have stalled now though
IMO it shall be able to break the resistance, need to have some patience n let it do it's work
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #195
  • Aug 22, 2012 4:31am Aug 22, 2012 4:31am
I agree I'm back in long and graph looks as if it's on it's way upward once more
  • #196
  • Aug 22, 2012 5:00am Aug 22, 2012 5:00am
I see a double top at 121.5 on H4..Does anybody else see it (might depend on the broker). It's a risk trading it, but with an SL 10 pips away might be a good R:R..
  • #197
  • Aug 22, 2012 5:16am Aug 22, 2012 5:16am
Quoting vinfx
I see a double top at 121.5 on H4..Does anybody else see it (might depend on the broker). It's a risk trading it, but with an SL 10 pips away might be a good R:R..

Assuming you mean 125.5, it's the weekly 50ema. It's been tested twice now. Once price gets above it, that's the new support
  • #198
  • Edited 4:41pm Aug 22, 2012 5:17am | Edited 4:41pm
My little contributions

See attch for charts gbp

later that afternoon gbpjpy pushed down and i was taken out. will have to reposition
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy daily elwave count 22082012.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #199
  • Aug 22, 2012 5:19am Aug 22, 2012 5:19am
Quoting vinfx
I see a double top at 121.5 on H4..Does anybody else see it (might depend on the broker). It's a risk trading it, but with an SL 10 pips away might be a good R:R..
Everything is possible in FX... Someone once said something like: Playing Price Action blindly in high momentum market will wipe your account.
  • #200
  • Aug 22, 2012 7:19am Aug 22, 2012 7:19am
I'm out with +30 pips..
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