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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #35,701
  • Aug 19, 2012 7:42pm Aug 19, 2012 7:42pm
I'm kinda bored right now... Not worthwhile doing any exact calculations because the market is so slow. Once EU session opens ill be real focused and get some coffee in me.

Not even bothering to measure projections or anything. This type of trading is actually quite fun with small positions off hours... You can pretend it's a casino and shout at your charts and people nearby think your crazy!

"Downtrend strength of 3 pips per 50 minutes!!! SHORT GREEN FIVE SHORT GREEN FIVE!!! OH VOLUME SPIKE AT RED 6!!! TAKE WIN TAKE WIN!!!"

LoL...
  • #35,702
  • Aug 19, 2012 8:07pm Aug 19, 2012 8:07pm
Quoting MasterGamble
I'm kinda bored right now... Not worthwhile doing any exact calculations because the market is so slow. Once EU session opens ill be real focused and get some coffee in me.

Not even bothering to measure projections or anything. This type of trading is actually quite fun with small positions off hours... You can pretend it's a casino and shout at your charts and people nearby think your crazy!

"Downtrend strength of 3 pips per 50 minutes!!! SHORT GREEN FIVE SHORT GREEN FIVE!!! OH VOLUME SPIKE AT RED 6!!! TAKE WIN TAKE WIN!!!"

LoL... ...

wow you are way to beyond me... isn't everything can be glanced with an eye what u r doing with statistical thing...


V
  • #35,703
  • Aug 19, 2012 8:20pm Aug 19, 2012 8:20pm
I like having an exact handle on things when placing large positions.

I only like to monitor the last month of data as the market changes slightly over time. Key things I like to analyze are the behavior of 5m and 10m trends within 120m-240m reversals. Behavior of those 5m-10 cycles depending upon length of time within the 120m-240m cycle/trend.

Number of hours trends last after a major catalyst from Merkel/Mario/Bernanke... Momentum and acceleration levels in the trend compared to cycle time durations.

If you dig down in the numbers and do some serious statistical analysis you find some very useful stuff.

Straight technical analysis is crap... You have to be like Buzzy(Marty Schwartz) in Pit Bull... Have all your ratio's, expected trend speeds, everything calculated out... Be ready to adjust if your scenario is wrong.
  • #35,704
  • Aug 19, 2012 8:28pm Aug 19, 2012 8:28pm
Quoting MasterGamble
I like having an exact handle on things when placing large positions.

I only like to monitor the last month of data as the market changes slightly over time. Key things I like to analyze are the behavior of 5m and 10m trends within 120m-240m reversals. Behavior of those 5m-10 cycles depending upon length of time within the 120m-240m cycle/trend.

Number of hours trends last after a major catalyst from Merkel/Mario/Bernanke... Momentum and acceleration levels in the trend compared to cycle time durations.

If you dig down in the numbers and...
what r u trying to sell here??


V
  • #35,705
  • Aug 19, 2012 8:36pm Aug 19, 2012 8:36pm
Quoting MasterGamble
I don't really like technical analysis all that much because of this one little issue... People are trying to find something solid in something which is merely a game of odds.

Most technical analysis systems are not built to do statistical analysis. The kind of things I like to know are... If there is five down days, how big is the average range range of a reversal day that occurs after that number of down days? What are the odds of a reversal occurring two days after that day?

Here is my 8hr chart... The dots on my chart show me plain candle...
Odd?
wasting energy.
It all depends on the trend and the activities going about.
If conditions continue deteriorate, then trend persist.
whether will reverse or continue depends.
i not trade bias.Just whats happening.
Odds cannot dictate my trades, only my aggression.

regards
  • #35,706
  • Edited 9:16pm Aug 19, 2012 8:40pm | Edited 9:16pm
Quoting MasterGamble
I like having an exact handle on things when placing large positions.

I only like to monitor the last month of data as the market changes slightly over time. Key things I like to analyze are the behavior of 5m and 10m trends within 120m-240m reversals. Behavior of those 5m-10 cycles depending upon length of time within the 120m-240m cycle/trend.

Number of hours trends last after a major catalyst from Merkel/Mario/Bernanke... Momentum and acceleration levels in the trend compared to cycle time durations.

If you dig down in the numbers and...
if you have large blotter.
and markets not moving, then you wasting ammo.

In the first place if your position's large and markets not moving then you already disadvantaged.
You already clustered.

Maybe learning patiencea and mm for you would be better than building odds.
Odds can only work for anyone , when is going their way.
Odds cannot dertermine sucessful trades. Is abstracts.
Flowing with trend can.
Is same as if you need take a shit, then having a toilet is useful.
Otherwise is just decorations.

of course if you know your odds.
Just like toilets, it can become useful if you can manage use it timely.
But having in unprodutive manner, may just get in your way of living.
therwise you may end up living in the toilet.

I suggest for you learn allow the market determine if you should be large or not, than you decide.
Large positions in congestions does nothing for profitability.

Same as in casinos.
is hard determine survival odds by guessing next outcome.
only what kind of series is happening.
in a series run, you need stay persistant.
in a choppy series you just keep adjusting.
the strategies for a choppy series and a run series is same.
Only your activity changes to adapt to terrain, can put you on top.


regards
  • #35,707
  • Aug 19, 2012 9:18pm Aug 19, 2012 9:18pm
Quoting MasterGamble
Here is my summary of current odds for the euro in the longer term in laymans terms.

The statistical odds that the euro will move lower in following months is still statistically too high for me to consider being bullish without a unexpected fundamental change. If nothing were to change fundamentally the euro will continue downward.

It's weekly averaged/filtered momentum is at 322 pips per 10 weeks. Monthly momentum is projected to be downward at over 500 pips per ten months ten months from now because of the current downtrend acceleration rate.

Taking...

Wow! is all I can say.

My hat is off to you if you can understand all of that, let alone trade it.
  • #35,708
  • Aug 19, 2012 9:55pm Aug 19, 2012 9:55pm
Quoting MasterGamble
Here is my summary of current odds for the euro in the longer term in laymans terms.

The statistical odds that the euro will move lower in following months is still statistically too high for me to consider being bullish without a unexpected fundamental change. If nothing were to change fundamentally the euro will continue downward.

It's weekly averaged/filtered momentum is at 322 pips per 10 weeks. Monthly momentum is projected to be downward at over 500 pips per ten months ten months from now because of the current downtrend acceleration...
ok noted.
i go on fast.
will eat in 10 weeks time.
but will eat if things change.

regards
  • #35,709
  • Aug 19, 2012 10:11pm Aug 19, 2012 10:11pm
Quoting MasterGamble
We are at four hours of double engulfing reversal on hourly. Odds of price being higher than these levels in the next five candles is increasing and the odds of getting trapped short and stopped are becoming unsatisfactory. Also, the current price strength on 30m/60m is basically flatline.

The odds of traders buying off the weekly pivot area shifting the market significantly is also very high by my calculations.
Numbers are looking good tonight so far. I'm in sync with the market.

Most likely because I am not really expecting anything and just following the numbers.

The other day I had a set plan and it fell apart... Even though the market didn't follow my trading plan I still made money because I realized I was wrong in time.
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  • #35,710
  • Aug 19, 2012 10:42pm Aug 19, 2012 10:42pm
Here is what happened... I was glancing at the 120-240m expecting a higher low... Watching the hourly going toward the EU open trying to spot where the runup was going to begin.

I had my numbers all planned out for playing a 10 pip/hour steady uptrend.

Everything looks good... Trend acceleration past 1AM EST is picking up! Playing the market with the assumption of 2-3 candle dips max as entries on the 5m which is about the most you get on a 10pip/50minute velocity uptrend with these volatility levels... News catalyst of not too much importance.

Everything is going perfectly according to plan... Then the market starts having issues with the daily pivot? That is strange... So I lighten up. All the sudden we get hit with a vol spike. Normally during a solid uptrend there is NEVER any vol spikes expect at capitulations into new highs... So I review price strength and get myself out of position with a okay profit and just sit back and watch to see what the consolidation cycle does...

Holy #&*#! That was not in the numbers. Wrong/right... Who cares as long as your making $$!

So then I was like... Hmmm... My plan was to trade long for the day. Lets give it another go on a confirmed higher low! The market never frigging dipped... It just ran straight up to the next news release... Wth? Front-running I exclaimed!!! That was a frigging weird move...

So then I wait out and try an entry signal that shows up on the 5m. Picked the wrong bottom. Price moves against me a bit too much... Still decent momentum/price strength. If the EUR/USD really wanted to move it wouldn't dip for more than a couple candles.

I realized my trading plan was botched. So at that point I just cut my position with a slight profit there and call it a night. I kinda realized at that point that the market was screwed and going to drop hard...

But, I had absolutely no trading plan for shorting the market... No entry/exit plan. No candle count estimates for each play...

Just wasn't in the cards. I don't think any good traders were expecting that sharp reversal. But, when the market refuses to go up when it's supposed to be going up, it's gonna go down!!!

Martin Schwartz in the book pit bull describes this pretty well... If the market isn't doing what the numbers say it's supposed to be doing, it's going to do the opposite!!!
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  • #35,711
  • Aug 19, 2012 10:43pm Aug 19, 2012 10:43pm
Quoting MasterGamble
Numbers are looking good tonight so far. I'm in sync with the market.

Most likely because I am not really expecting anything and just following the numbers.

The other day I had a set plan and it fell apart... Even though the market didn't follow my trading plan I still made money because I realized I was wrong in time.
Something tells me you are not new to the thread as your profile is indicating.

  • #35,712
  • Aug 19, 2012 10:46pm Aug 19, 2012 10:46pm
Quoting MasterGamble
Here is what happened... I was glancing at the 120-240m expecting a higher low... Watching the hourly going toward the EU open trying to spot where the runup was going to begin.

I had my numbers all planned out for playing a 10 pip/hour steady uptrend.

Everything looks good... Trend acceleration past 1AM EST is picking up! Playing the market with the assumption of 2-3 candle dips max as entries on the 5m which is about the most you get on a 10pip/50minute velocity uptrend with these volatility levels... News catalyst of not too much importance.

Everything...

any idea of replying to people.. u kinda hijacking this thread and i am kinda getting feel u r not first time on this thread...


V
  • #35,713
  • Aug 19, 2012 10:59pm Aug 19, 2012 10:59pm
Quoting fti
Apologies
-no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"
Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.

Since the late 70s and into the millinium.
Many "engineers" have made public, their inventions of reading probabilities into Technical Indicators. Many Technical Analysis Gurus came to the forefront to sell their research findings. To name a few,
The Grand daddy being Charles Dow and...
hello FTI sir,,
pleased to meet with you
I had been peek and read your thread for about three month
very interesting,, and i like the word that says

'''''Apologies
-no mentor, or course, or literiture can give anyone the holy grail to the secrets of success in trading in the markets.
-"and no one, sells the goose that lays golden eggs, probably the eggs, but never the goose"
Nevertheless, I will humbly attempt.'''''

and also like the story of the scorpion and dancing trade etc,,etc,,
when i was young i like dancing cha cha cha too
one two cha cha cha ,,, one two cha cha cha ... ha,, ha,,

I am very pleased to meet with you and your community here
I also hope you and the community here always doing well

best regards
w
  • #35,714
  • Aug 20, 2012 12:01am Aug 20, 2012 12:01am
Quoting MasterGamble
Numbers are looking good tonight so far. I'm in sync with the market.

Most likely because I am not really expecting anything and just following the numbers.

The other day I had a set plan and it fell apart... Even though the market didn't follow my trading plan I still made money because I realized I was wrong in time.
maybe the best for all, if you open your own thread and start exploring your idea there. Please ...

Regards..

P
  • #35,715
  • Aug 20, 2012 12:35am Aug 20, 2012 12:35am
Just trying to show you guys what is wrong with most peoples ideas of technical analysis...

Crossovers, signals, etc etc... It's all crap.

You need to get down and start analyzing the data like an accountant. How long do candle trends last on average when momentum is x... What happens after a new catalyst that is negative/positive x amount with market momentum and cycles of x.

Have a good day everyone!!!

Time to drink some coffee and get ready for the party! EU open in an hour and a half!


Everything is flatline... The only statistical fact for the EUR/USD that is really solid right now is that there is a 99% chance we push above or below the current daily candle high or low. In the last 100 daily candles I don't see a single day with a range of 43 or less.(Our current daily range including weekend session.) So, there shall be action guaranteed!!!
  • #35,716
  • Aug 20, 2012 12:43am Aug 20, 2012 12:43am
Quoting fti
what type of mindset is that, simple?
with abias, i wonder if your fingers can still work efficiently
clear mind.
Thats not news, thats just positions.
WE cannot see his blotter movements, so is not useful info.
only that we know already markets not absolutely confident in the managing of it's health.

regards
Thanks fti, just thinking why they are saying to public they are short? Are they on the other side as we don't see blotter.
  • #35,717
  • Aug 20, 2012 12:47am Aug 20, 2012 12:47am
Quoting daytek
That article links to an interesting perspective-opinion..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...-eurozone.html

if one leaves, then others will have a heavier burden, making their departure only more attractive, and its domino effect.

Regards.
Finland is just a small fry not sure what will they prepare just go broke.
  • #35,718
  • Aug 20, 2012 12:56am Aug 20, 2012 12:56am
Quoting MasterGamble

You need to get down and start analyzing the data like an accountant.
Analyze like an accountant? OR analyze like an Analyst.

Never analyze like an accountant.
  • #35,719
  • Aug 20, 2012 7:00am Aug 20, 2012 7:00am
Quoting MasterGamble
Here is what happened... I was glancing at the 120-240m expecting a higher low... Watching the hourly going toward the EU open trying to spot where the runup was going to begin.

I had my numbers all planned out for playing a 10 pip/hour steady uptrend.

Everything looks good... Trend acceleration past 1AM EST is picking up! Playing the market with the assumption of 2-3 candle dips max as entries on the 5m which is about the most you get on a 10pip/50minute velocity uptrend with these volatility levels... News catalyst of not too much importance.

Everything...
wow...very pretty...hope you can get it to work from you..this rate of change thing seems a bit too risky to me....i studied calculus and that is all about change comparison rates of change in one thing and another over certain conditions....maybe there is some differential equations that can help you...

i dont think you will find this thread useful ....if you reread the whole thread from start to end ..you will notice its a totally different approach....you will see that your system if very predictive crystal ball style...and maybe you can get it to work occasionally. ....good luck to you ...i am no expert ...but i really think your gonna need it.
  • #35,720
  • Aug 20, 2012 7:48am Aug 20, 2012 7:48am
Quoting N_Trader
Something tells me you are not new to the thread as your profile is indicating.

Replay of the Pink Panther Strikes Again? Or is it red _?_?

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