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GBP/JPY

  • #141
  • Aug 18, 2012 7:51am Aug 18, 2012 7:51am
  • #142
  • Aug 18, 2012 9:41am Aug 18, 2012 9:41am
This is what I am expecting this week.

A short on Monday (bull trap formed with thursday and friday's candles and confirmed when Friday's low is taken out) - shorting until the pink line (retest of weekly IB candle high and 161.8 bearish fib) for a long later on in the week.

Forex Untangled

[IMG]http://i1051.photobucket.com/albums/...ENweeklyEA.png[/IMG]
  • #143
  • Aug 18, 2012 10:44am Aug 18, 2012 10:44am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
My view... Anything can happen on Monday. I actually expect a gap up when market opens due to Friday night market news. Not to much but still a gap. Very likely is also a test of TL/124.5 area with Dynamic support in 20 EMA 4H, 153 EMA Daily and 20 EMA Weekly. Bullish look with some obstacles on the way. GBP News on Monday morning will accelerate or decelerate Price across 125.5 and 126.4-5 resistance. If Price slide easily through those levels I might reconsider my 127 TP area and push it higher, especially if market is copying Jan/Feb this year...

Hello
Beautiful six trades GBP / JPY Buy 728 PIPS, but I think the market will go down now does not agree?
  • #144
  • Aug 18, 2012 12:26pm Aug 18, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting Silvaa
Hello
Beautiful six trades GBP / JPY Buy 728 PIPS, but I think the market will go down now does not agree?
We will see For now there is no technical sign for short. However, if Price will fall below 124.47 and keep falling through 124.2 ... if we'll see 1H chart momentum decreasing then yes, further down is always possible. The Price behaviour after the GBP news on Monday will decide direction. If News will be red but market will instantly fall only a few pips then North is still a way to go.

This is just my view. I have blown many accounts in the past!
  • #145
  • Aug 18, 2012 12:31pm Aug 18, 2012 12:31pm
Quoting IndigoPingvi
We will see For now there is no technical sign for short. However, if Price will fall below 124.47 and keep falling through 124.2 ... if we'll see 1H chart momentum decreasing then yes, further down is always possible. The Price behaviour after the GBP news on Monday will decide direction. If News will be red but market will instantly fall only a few pips then North is still a way to go.

This is just my view. I have blown many accounts in the past!

Hello

Thank you in advance, but we already have a fractal h1 low to 124,964
  • #146
  • Aug 18, 2012 12:34pm Aug 18, 2012 12:34pm
Quoting Silvaa
Hello

Thank you in advance, but we already have a fractal h1 low to 124,964 despite being above 50 rsi.
I am sorry, I have no idea what fractals are and I don't use RSI so I can't comment on this
  • #147
  • Aug 18, 2012 12:43pm Aug 18, 2012 12:43pm
Quoting FXUntangled
This is what I am expecting this week.

A short on Monday (bull trap formed with thursday and friday's candles and confirmed when Friday's low is taken out) - shorting until the pink line (retest of weekly IB candle high and 161.8 bearish fib) for a long later on in the week.
Would you say that if Price goes North beyond Friday's top that last two bars are not Bull trap?
  • #148
  • Aug 18, 2012 11:00pm Aug 18, 2012 11:00pm
Been playing with this and has been kind to me.. Short term.. look forward to getting some insights .. seem a lot easier to call than some..
  • #149
  • Aug 19, 2012 2:32am Aug 19, 2012 2:32am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
Would you say that if Price goes North beyond Friday's top that last two bars are not Bull trap?
If it closes higher than friday's candle (or goes significantly higher - ie more than a few pips of stop loss hunting) then it isn't likely to be a bull trap but let's see what monday brings.

Forex Untangled
  • #150
  • Aug 19, 2012 12:39pm Aug 19, 2012 12:39pm
Eid Mubarak to all my muslim brothers & sisters
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #151
  • Aug 20, 2012 5:08am Aug 20, 2012 5:08am
Short 125.00 sl 125.42 tp open, resistance at daily 200 EMA...
  • #152
  • Aug 20, 2012 5:25am Aug 20, 2012 5:25am
Quoting vinfx
Short 125.00 sl 125.42 tp open, resistance at daily 200 EMA...
What about the Trendline beneath it?
  • #153
  • Aug 20, 2012 6:12am Aug 20, 2012 6:12am
A chart showing significant LINEAR trendlines /andrews pitchfork lines (blue) / channels that I understand appear above the present price levels.

The current boring consolidation channel is about 45 pips in height but should break soon to the upside and over the daily 200ema - probably to enable a foothold and more consolidation above/around the weekly 50ema at 125.5.

The daily is still moderately stretched and all this consolidation has done ( so far) is unwind the 4hr TF. Maybe a few more hours of going nowhere.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #154
  • Aug 20, 2012 9:32am Aug 20, 2012 9:32am
Hi guys,

Am i wrong in thinking this is due some sort of pullback before heading further north?
Its been in uptrend since 10th and has risen by over 300 pips..??
  • #155
  • Aug 20, 2012 9:46am Aug 20, 2012 9:46am
at least in the shorter time frame I think 125 is a strong resist level. could drop to 124 range. I would not rule out drop to 121 either. current trend is up and cant be ignored either.
  • #156
  • Aug 20, 2012 9:46am Aug 20, 2012 9:46am
Quoting Freshpips
Hi guys,

Am i wrong in thinking this is due some sort of pullback before heading further north?
Its been in uptrend since 10th and has risen by over 300 pips..??

Just need 124.52 to be taken out....
  • #157
  • Aug 20, 2012 9:51am Aug 20, 2012 9:51am
Quoting zephyru
at least in the shorter time frame I think 125 is a strong resist level. could drop to 124 range. I would not rule out drop to 121 either. current trend is up and cant be ignored either.

Hi Zephyru,

I agree, this pair is and has been in an uptrend, but like all pairs, will become exhausted and pullback before confirming the next more either north or south. We have been stuck in this range now since 16/8 and price has been unable to break 125 which insinuates theres a large number of sellers there??
  • #158
  • Aug 20, 2012 10:11am Aug 20, 2012 10:11am
I think 125 is most affected by 200ma. with 6/21 high of 125.80 as a backup. an engulfing daily today would be my confirmation of downturn.
  • #159
  • Aug 20, 2012 12:05pm Aug 20, 2012 12:05pm
Let's stay optimistic. Trendline is still holding, Price didn't take yesterday's bottom, Price is staying in range and made Higher High on Daily chart. As of now my bias is Bullish, but if price takes down yesterday's bottom, then Bears might take over.
  • #160
  • Aug 20, 2012 1:19pm Aug 20, 2012 1:19pm
GJ has ranged and took a breather after last weeks rally. 124.90 seems to be a good resistance level but I believe it will be taken out once 4h has recovered from it's overbought levels, 4h QQE has crossed down but price is not going anywhere down, as long as price remains above 4h 50ema, wait for a 4h QQE cross upwards and a 4h candle close above 4h gann, I'd expect to see 126.80 level. Price might retrace to 124.10-124.20 IMO before continuing upwards.

http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/884/20161815.gif

Here's something else I look at, learned it from auslanco a couple of years back. We use 5sma (close, high, low)
The weekly candle has closed above the 5sma high and that indicates to me a bullish sign, price usually retraces to the 5sma high/close before resuming upwards, and the the 5sma high coincides with the retrace level I expect which is 124.10-124.20 level

http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/450/gjw.gif

This is just my analysis and it could be wrong!
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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