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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #35,681
  • Aug 17, 2012 2:22am Aug 17, 2012 2:22am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Whats going on there....freefalll.....


V
euro aussie crosses.
  • #35,682
  • Aug 17, 2012 7:15am Aug 17, 2012 7:15am
Quoting fti
euro aussie crosses.
  • #35,683
  • Aug 17, 2012 8:38am Aug 17, 2012 8:38am
Quoting Manekineko
???

regards
  • #35,684
  • Aug 17, 2012 1:33pm Aug 17, 2012 1:33pm
Hmm... they say if you want a honest friend, get a dog. And if you want a hundred friends, get a fishtank. Yeah they're quiet, make no mess and can be quite spectacular. But goldfish don't mix well with others; they will vandalise the plants.
Good luck with the aquarium ... it definitely boosts the room. I used to have fishy-fishy but not anymore.

Quoting fti
ya , was thinking start a aquarium of that light up the dark corners for better feng sui.

also bagged eyes goldfish.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #35,685
  • Edited 2:41am Aug 18, 2012 2:04am | Edited 2:41am
Quoting spekitox
Hmm... they say if you want a honest friend, get a dog. And if you want a hundred friends, get a fishtank. Yeah they're quiet, make no mess and can be quite spectacular. But goldfish don't mix well with others; they will vandalise the plants.
Good luck with the aquarium ... it definitely boosts the room. I used to have fishy-fishy but not anymore.

i have.
dogs, pond of fishes, garden of flowers, friends.
Fucked up ISPs.
but also have lots enemies.They hate my guts.

regards

Aquarium need lots maintainance, is like dependants.
garden pond, is very relaxing. Maintainance only annually, sometimes in 2 years.
and lots surprises of the world they build.
just not put hostile stuff into it.
if you tile the ponds bed white, can see mostly whats living in it. If you like can make netted zones for the delicate lifeforms. Can have netted section where life food source lives. But mostly artificial waterfall is relaxing white noise for relaxation. God mostly is the one refresh the water supply, weekly. Thanks to him.
Japanese carp pond is very entertaining. and easy to gate connect to shallow guppy pond.
can finger gate to the goldfish ponds also. If you scale drop the pond bottoms, can havethe debres slides to the sucker fish sections. They very hard working cleaners.
Try not disturb the ponds after they matured, them seem hate humans disturb their lives. Everytime humans disturbs, much casualties.
  • #35,686
  • Aug 18, 2012 2:36am Aug 18, 2012 2:36am
Hi fti


I have ponds in my garden, one natural and one koi, a little effort for lots of return


regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #35,687
  • Edited 3:17am Aug 18, 2012 2:51am | Edited 3:17am
Quoting phil13
Hi fti


I have ponds in my garden, one natural and one koi, a little effort for lots of return


regards


Phil.
phil
great: can get lots ideas from japanese gardens , intergrate the garden to our living.
nice just carry camp bed sleep out there on a nice night.
if only can find ways get rid of mosquitoes, instead of the using net would be great. Already using lemon grass barricade, but them females still come suck blood.
I tried use high frequency sound waves, doesn't work, still gets bitten.
Is nice have small pebble bear foot walk path around the pond make like inspection tour, but unfortunately i cannot walk too well now.

Nice , have you trained the koi recognise you yet?
they very friendly playful pets, just like dolphines.
make sure they have many friends, they die quickly in solitairy. otherwise they can outlive us.

regards
  • #35,688
  • Aug 18, 2012 3:11am Aug 18, 2012 3:11am
Mosquitoes not much of an issue in england, though my ponds do attract some, the natural pond attracts all sorts of wildlife you do not normally see very often in england , we are often out by the koi pond until late in the summer, yes, my koi are really friendly so the kids (and friends) love them and always want to hand feed them when they come around, they do recognise me I have had some of them for about 16 years now so they are part of the family.


Just like a dolphin, I used to have one that used to tale walk now and again, but has not done it this year for some reason.


I have some tables and chairs near the pond so we can sit, eat and relax out there while watching them.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #35,689
  • Edited 3:41am Aug 18, 2012 3:27am | Edited 3:41am
Quoting phil13
Mosquitoes not much of an issue in england, though my ponds do attract some, the natural pond attracts all sorts of wildlife you do not normally see very often in england , we are often out by the koi pond until late in the summer, yes, my koi are really friendly so the kids (and friends) love them and always want to hand feed them when they come around, they do recognise me I have had some of them for about 16 years now so they are part of the family.


Just like a dolphin, I used to have one that used to tale walk now and again, but has...
wow, nice
big pond?

I did try shift trade station near garden, but i cannot see the led screen clearly.
still trying, would be good for my sun thraphy.

regards
  • #35,690
  • Aug 18, 2012 4:05am Aug 18, 2012 4:05am
The koi pond is about 12,000 gallons and it is about 3 metres deep (at the drain), I have a 1,500 gallon filter with spray bars to oxygenate it, it is filled with mainly lava rock and some brushes, a 220uv sterilisers to keep the water clear and it pumps 3,600gallon an hour, because of the depth the koi grow big quickly, I believe it is because it makes their swim bladders work properly, I have a bottom drain that feeds the filter and I only have to flush (pull a few levers) about once a fortnight.


I thought about trading by the pond but as you say it is hard to see the screen properly, I am wondering if a plasma tv screen would work better outside, you could connect it as a second screen on a laptop


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #35,691
  • Aug 18, 2012 5:00am Aug 18, 2012 5:00am
Wow, thanks for the interesting bits of information. It's worth listening to other people's experiences, it can save a lot of effort, time, pain and money. Have a nice weekend.

Quoting fti
Aquarium need lots maintainance, is like dependants.
garden pond, is very relaxing. Maintainance only annually, sometimes in 2 years.
and lots surprises of the world they build.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #35,692
  • Aug 18, 2012 10:05am Aug 18, 2012 10:05am
Hi fti,
Thank you, that makes things clearer in my mind.

Quoting fti
to shade , i no use currencies in holdings.
I use exposure of room books.
Thats whats showing the real market pressures.
not individual, big cannons.
they manipulators only, always gets splashed.
Shading doesn't involve selling what you have...it involves matching up the orders on the Books to move prices in a direction that gets things closer to where the nearest Ducks are sitting.

Very nice.

Best,

Eric.
" Be always employed in something useful." - Benjamin Franklin
  • #35,693
  • Aug 19, 2012 1:57pm Aug 19, 2012 1:57pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...-the-euro.html

It's a catch 22, i better stop shorting euro now,
  • #35,694
  • Edited 3:56pm Aug 19, 2012 3:31pm | Edited 3:56pm
Quoting simpleman
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...-the-euro.html

It's a catch 22, i better stop shorting euro now,
what type of mindset is that, simple?
with abias, i wonder if your fingers can still work efficiently
clear mind.
Thats not news, thats just positions.
WE cannot see his blotter movements, so is not useful info.
only that we know already markets not absolutely confident in the managing of it's health.

regards
  • #35,695
  • Edited 4:01pm Aug 19, 2012 3:34pm | Edited 4:01pm
Quoting phil13
The koi pond is about 12,000 gallons and it is about 3 metres deep (at the drain), I have a 1,500 gallon filter with spray bars to oxygenate it, it is filled with mainly lava rock and some brushes, a 220uv sterilisers to keep the water clear and it pumps 3,600gallon an hour, because of the depth the koi grow big quickly, I believe it is because it makes their swim bladders work properly, I have a bottom drain that feeds the filter and I only have to flush (pull a few levers) about once a fortnight.


I thought about trading by the pond but as...
you done well. You know your fishs.
yes the depth and the temperature is important.
the colder the water the better their colour.
here because of warm climate, their colours not vibrant.

is most relaxing watching them playing at the pool divide waterfalls.
natural oxyginating pool, and seems they like playing at waterfalls,
same like us. Makes for not so boring lifestyle.


regards
  • #35,696
  • Aug 19, 2012 4:26pm Aug 19, 2012 4:26pm
That article links to an interesting perspective-opinion..
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...-eurozone.html

if one leaves, then others will have a heavier burden, making their departure only more attractive, and its domino effect.

Regards.

Quoting simpleman
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...-the-euro.html

It's a catch 22, i better stop shorting euro now,
  • #35,697
  • Aug 19, 2012 4:32pm Aug 19, 2012 4:32pm
I don't really like technical analysis all that much because of this one little issue... People are trying to find something solid in something which is merely a game of odds.

Most technical analysis systems are not built to do statistical analysis. The kind of things I like to know are... If there is five down days, how big is the average range range of a reversal day that occurs after that number of down days? What are the odds of a reversal occurring two days after that day?

Here is my 8hr chart... The dots on my chart show me plain candle odds. Very large dots on the chart indicate that there is high statistical odds of price being above/below those levels within a certain number of candles. This has to be calculated out versus market momentum and news events have to be taken into consideration. If there is very high odds that price will reverse I go down onto lower timeframes and prepare to trade when price trend reverses on lower timeframes.
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  • #35,698
  • Aug 19, 2012 5:05pm Aug 19, 2012 5:05pm
Here is my summary of current odds for the euro in the longer term in laymans terms.

The statistical odds that the euro will move lower in following months is still statistically too high for me to consider being bullish without a unexpected fundamental change. If nothing were to change fundamentally the euro will continue downward.

It's weekly averaged/filtered momentum is at 322 pips per 10 weeks. Monthly momentum is projected to be downward at over 500 pips per ten months ten months from now because of the current downtrend acceleration rate.

Taking into account momentum and cross comparing with candle odds... Taking long positions in the euro is crazy!!! If you manage to pick a good high odds bottom realize that you are countering a trend strength of over 300 pips per 10 weeks...


I use many different factors in calculating odds.

These are the core elements that must be analyzed when determining the probability of a trades success.

 

  1. Duration of time in cycle and cycle starting level.
  2. Current trend speed and acceleration.
  3. Recent price volatility range vs planned trade duration.
  4. Price level of trade entry.
  5. Cyclic or velocity divergence.

Don't focus on technical analysis... Focus on statistical analysis of technical indicators vs price. It's quite complicated and a lot of work.



One of the most important things traders must realize is that the statistical odds of a cycle continuing in a direction for a number of candles are heavily slanted by the trend and cycle alignments.

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  • #35,699
  • Aug 19, 2012 5:09pm Aug 19, 2012 5:09pm
Quoting MasterGamble
...... It's quite complicated and a lot of work.


One of the most important things traders must realize is that the statistical odds of a cycle continuing in a direction for a number of candles are heavily slanted by the trend and cycle alignments.
Indeed...
above my pay grade...
I cannot figure this out.
I better go to bed.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #35,700
  • Aug 19, 2012 5:33pm Aug 19, 2012 5:33pm
Here is how I trade... I cross compare odds across multiple timeframes. There were some good odds shorts early as this market was transitioning into a downtrend. Count a certain number of up candles that are relative to number of down candles. I place a bet if my risk/reward calculations look decent then take it off when the odds of a bounce get high again.

Currently I am no longer continuing to attempt shorts because of two factors.

We are at four hours of double engulfing reversal on hourly. Odds of price being higher than these levels in the next five candles is increasing and the odds of getting trapped short and stopped are becoming unsatisfactory. Also, the current price strength on 30m/60m is basically flatline.

The odds of traders buying off the weekly pivot area shifting the market significantly is also very high by my calculations.
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