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EURUSD predictive trading

  • #61
  • Edited Aug 13, 2012 2:30am Aug 12, 2012 8:41pm | Edited Aug 13, 2012 2:30am
Well since you've been emphasizing time so far some ideas on how those vertical time lines are developed would be great.


Quoting Mike Haran
What do you want first prices or time? All the best Mike Haran
  • #62
  • Aug 16, 2012 4:57pm Aug 16, 2012 4:57pm
We are now entering a phase where the eurusd has made its move according to my calculations and a decline is now going to occur. A retest of the lows again I think with my date for the next big move being the end of August the start of september, so the 31 August could be the start of the next move to be on in the eurusd.Around 15:00 GMT is when I think the high might be in.

Mike Haran

So 17th August 2012 by 15:00 is when I think the high in the EURUSD will form.
  • #63
  • Edited 11:50am Aug 28, 2012 11:32am | Edited 11:50am
I was thinking the 17-18th August would be a high instead it turned out to be a low. My call for this month is a high possibly the end of August in the EURUSD with the 31st being a possible date or the , my hopes would be for either a high on the 31st August or 3rd September.

Lets see how this one goes.

All the best


Mike Haran
  • #64
  • Aug 31, 2012 7:53am Aug 31, 2012 7:53am
31st August my price levels are 1.26222 and 1.26645

EURUSD top possible.

Mike Haran
  • #65
  • Aug 31, 2012 8:20am Aug 31, 2012 8:20am
This seems too philosophical to propose any real trading implementation from it, but I do give you credit Mike as you seem to be experienced in what you do. May I hazard a guess as to this method or approach currently still being in test mode?
  • #66
  • Sep 1, 2012 8:14am Sep 1, 2012 8:14am
Cycle exist in the market and they keep repeating. Why do I think that the 30-31 August might be a top. Here is the evidence for my case.29.8.2011 high in the eurusd1.9.2010 low in the EURUSD1.9.2009 low in EURUSD28.8.2008 minor swing high EURUSD29.8.2007 swing low in the EURUSD31.8.2006 swing high EURUSD2.9.2005 swing high EURUSD30.8.2004 swing low so we can see that around now end of August start of September the EURUSD often makes a turn, usually it reverses direction into these dates.Look for yourselves how often we get a turn around these dates. Now I will go back to 1993 August, 31st of August was a swing low before a massive up move. Now I will go to 2004 August, the 3oth again a move. Using more esoteric methods I take the swing on the 24th 2nd 2012 which was the start of this leg down in the EURUSD the sun was at an angle of 335.19 degress add 180 to this and I get 515.19 subtract 360 I get an angle of 155.19 which give me the 28th August 2012. Some of you will be wondering why I use solar degrees, well its just a good time keeper. Charts are missing the weekends and holidays which disrupt cycles, so using a constant reference of time is really important. We are also 134 traded days from that top on the 24th Feb 135 was one of Ganns number. From the low on the 24th.7.2012 the EURUSD has moved up approximately 30 traded day it will be on the 3rd September. So I have many reasons to suppose we are in a zone for a turn. Now how did I get the price level. Simple it was a 127% expansion ratio. Now am I right, really I am not sure, I am never sure, thats why I uses stops.
  • #67
  • Sep 1, 2012 8:57am Sep 1, 2012 8:57am
Should the EURUSD fall from here the 16th of September would be my next reversal target. It could be that price does not reverse on the 31st and this was a consolidation zone. These point often locate reversals but can also locate zones of power where the market will move away from, so the idea would be to set my stop above Fridays high and hold until the 16th, if my stop is taken then I will go long until the 16th, so although I like to predict the market, the market is always right no matter what I think.Mike Haran
  • #68
  • Sep 2, 2012 5:34am Sep 2, 2012 5:34am
Hi Mike I hope you are right. EUR/USD should move vividly this September, and Fed meeting on middle September (nearby 16th) should give a nice impulse towards the opposite direction that should start tomorrow...let us see...
  • #69
  • Sep 4, 2012 5:27am Sep 4, 2012 5:27am
Sorry from the low of 24.7.2012 the eurusd moved up 34 traded days and 34 is a fib number. Having double checked my cycle calculations. In the last instance of this cycle the minimum move was 200 points so this is the minimum I am looking for we could also have a move in excess of 1000 pips really no way to know for sure.

Mike Haran
  • #70
  • Sep 8, 2012 6:33am Sep 8, 2012 6:33am
31st.August call
there was a reaction of 120-130 pips which was nowhere near my expectation of a 200 pip fall. However, the trade was not a bad call as it was 17 pips from the high on the 31st.

My next two dates are the 10th of september where I expect a reaction down, however this is likely to be a 120-200 pip move and I would still be looking load up on long trades until the 15th September where I would look for a stronger move down, the move on the 15th should be late in the day and it is quite possible that we have quite a nice move up into it.

On the 10th a couple of price levels present themselves 1.29365 and of course 1.30, a move further up on the 16th might have me looking around 1.32 as a possible top where you can expect a 400 pip move down again.

Good luck to you all
  • #71
  • Sep 9, 2012 7:25am Sep 9, 2012 7:25am
Having sat and looked again the EURUSD does look like we are indeed in for a short squeeze 1.30 is more than possible and the 10th does look like a turn for sure. Now, I am wondering about the 16th, usually this would mark a cycle high but my wondering is will it actually mark a cycle low, sometimes it is quite hard to know.

However, Monday should be a strong day up, followed by a sell off in the afternoon session, from about 15:00 I calculate. Lets see what happens, if we continue to rise and no sell off occurs it sets up the 15-16th September as a nice top.

As always, use price action to confirm your trade.


Mike Haran
  • #72
  • Sep 9, 2012 8:49am Sep 9, 2012 8:49am
Quoting Mike Haran
I hope some of you are following this blog of my trades as it is a pleasure to make them. before the market gets there and

7th August looks like it could pull back hard, in the eurusd and this is a buying opportunity, I think we are down for a couple of days followed by a hard rally then a futher fall to around,

so 6th-7th down
8th 9th hard up
10,11,12th down

then a spectacular rally till 17-20 September to about 1.33, lets see how it plays out.

All the best


Mike Haran
Seems I should stop trying to catch every pulse of the market and just aim to catch the main moves. Still think we might get some sort of correction on Monday then a re push up. But, you have to take care because the cycles can invert (problem with chaotic systems), so if its a 150-200 pip fall from the 1oth then it is up till the 15-16th, a deeper correction in excess of 2-3 days and morethan 200 pips would set the 16th up to be a low. Cycles are often right on time, but establishing polarity is my next quest.

Mike Haran
  • #73
  • Sep 15, 2012 7:11am Sep 15, 2012 7:11am
So the big EURUSD rally that was expected came, so is this the place to join the ride up, I don't think so. My cycles are pointing to a top on the 16th Sept as mention earlier in the thread. This is Sunday night so are we going to see some correction in the EURUSD from here I think we are.If I am right then 1.31568,1.32187 or 1.32926 will mark the top of this move, at the cycle was on the 16th it could be friday will mark the high. If it is sunday then 1.32187 or 1.32926 would be the top.

A 30 pip stop is my risk and I am targeting a 400 point move down.

All the best


Mike Haran
  • #74
  • Sep 15, 2012 7:22am Sep 15, 2012 7:22am
1.31665 or 1.32267 would be my prefered levels. So Friday could have been the high if not then Sunday we might gap up to the higher level.

Happy weekend to all
  • #75
  • Sep 15, 2012 8:25am Sep 15, 2012 8:25am
Keep it up, nice work.

To some, they may not believe, yet to the minor, it may be predictive. I believe in business cycle, and had always wanted to integrate Gann into trading, but to fully understand Gann is difficult, so I had not be able to fully utilize it. If you can further share, that will be great.

I will correct it in my opinions of anticipating instead of predicting. I do not have the courage to predict, but I anticipate possible High or Low, or Reversal at hourly sessions of market opening/closing sessions followed with economic news to justify the top/bottom.

If someone open a chart, they will realise some of the tops and bottoms, are created by Asia/Europe/London/New York open and close sessions in hourly candles.

So to sum it up, I do not know where the price will go at this specific time, but I anticipate the price will move/turn at one direction at this time range (1hr to 3hr), and i wait patiently to that particular time for the price to react and give me a clue.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #76
  • Sep 22, 2012 4:30am Sep 22, 2012 4:30am
Hi Mike
Finally we got two main moves, turning about Sep 16-17th, as you predicted. My goal for this down move is about 1.2625, then it should go upwards again, to resume afterwards the downtrens. Let us see.....
  • #77
  • Sep 22, 2012 8:56am Sep 22, 2012 8:56am
I agree we are approaching a turn which is still by my calculation a long way below us circa 300 pips maybe 1.285 to 1.29 area followed by a surge up to the last high, then as you correctly say a decline into november and sideways action until next year.

I am looking for a low somewhere around the 24-24th which is a hard move down, I have no idea what will trigger this, but it seems to be a recurrent move in september, maybe markets like seasons go into a decline after the autumm equinox. I know Gann says in one of his books look for a decline around the period in september 22-23rd, I know its not that simple, but its a nice thing to be prepared for in advance just in case.

I am really quite suprised that traders on this forum don't seem to be interested in time analysis as it is so powerful, price is a walk in the park if you know where a market might turn.

I advise you all to study time and cycles as well as hurst in order to assist your trading, a knowledge of the past will show you the future.

Mike Haran
  • #78
  • Sep 22, 2012 2:27pm Sep 22, 2012 2:27pm
Quoting Mike Haran
I agree we are approaching a turn which is still by my calculation a long way below us circa 300 pips maybe 1.285 to 1.29 area followed by a surge up to the last high, then as you correctly say a decline into november and sideways action until next year.

I am looking for a low somewhere around the 24-24th which is a hard move down, I have no idea what will trigger this, but it seems to be a recurrent move in september, maybe markets like seasons go into a decline after the autumm equinox. I know Gann says in one of his books look for a decline...
Mass psichology is a fascinating part of trading, I am going into depth also in Elliott. Any suggestion about Gann? I´ve heared about Gann made easy from William Mclaren
  • #79
  • Sep 22, 2012 5:32pm Sep 22, 2012 5:32pm
Gann trained as a mathematition, and I am convinced he used fourier analysis as part of his cycle work. Hurst then developed cycles futher and I would suggest actively working through Hursts ideas and applying them to charts as active cycles can be picked up.

I would suggest that you ignore elliot waves as they talk about 5 waves and all you have to do is open any chart to see 5 waves are not the end of a trend, 7,9,11 are all possible calculations and sure elliot wave freaks will say "oh it divided" sure it did so unless you know its going to divide a count is only as good as guess. Time is the key so simply look at the markets and see where turns occur in the past and plot forward.

Gann thought each turn had a astrological basis and my analysis of this would appear to support his theorys although it is not as simple as Gann alluded to, his real method were never disclosed and he left loads of false trails to follow.Its a lot of work to sort out the fact from fiction and thats why most people give up on this line of research even though it is really powerful in assisting analysis. I would suggest a study of geometric structures mentioned by Gann these when the charts you use are correctly scaled are uncanny.

All the best


Mike Haran
  • #80
  • Sep 23, 2012 7:15am Sep 23, 2012 7:15am
Quoting Mike Haran
Gann trained as a mathematition, and I am convinced he used fourier analysis as part of his cycle work. Hurst then developed cycles futher and I would suggest actively working through Hursts ideas and applying them to charts as active cycles can be picked up.

I would suggest that you ignore elliot waves as they talk about 5 waves and all you have to do is open any chart to see 5 waves are not the end of a trend, 7,9,11 are all possible calculations and sure elliot wave freaks will say "oh it divided" sure it did so unless you know its going...
Ok Mike, thanks a lot
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