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Silent Service Method

  • #14,381
  • Aug 16, 2012 12:12am Aug 16, 2012 12:12am
Quoting mypipbull
I suspect the Bond market has already shown its hand here.
Quarterly 30 year T-Bond chart says it all. This is a 'sell to hell' trade if ever I saw one
I like this action now for sure. I should have shorted Bar1 Needless to say I'm selling the next rally and holding for a while all going well......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30 Year T-Bond Daily.png Size: 11 KB
  • #14,382
  • Aug 16, 2012 12:15am Aug 16, 2012 12:15am
Quoting mypipbull
I like this action now for sure. I should have shorted Bar1 Needless to say I'm selling the next rally and holding for a while all going well......
I could be wrong, but I think the 30 year is one of the notes that the Fed isn't messing with at the moment. In other words: you might actually see some kind of reality in the market. I could be wrong though - I have only a rudimentary knowledge of the bond markets.
  • #14,383
  • Aug 16, 2012 12:43am Aug 16, 2012 12:43am
Quoting clockwork71
I have only a rudimentary knowledge of the bond markets.
Me too, the 5, 10 & 30 year seem to be moving together atm.
The only thing that concerns (why I did not take the first trade) is this kinda means I'm bullish the stock indexes due to the 'traditional' relationship but I think the indexes are looking a bit toppy? As usual confusion reigns. Trade what you see.
  • #14,384
  • Aug 16, 2012 2:33am Aug 16, 2012 2:33am
Interesting take on FX from April - makes you wonder why we do this.

Commodities anyone?

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012...raders-lament/
  • #14,385
  • Aug 16, 2012 2:57am Aug 16, 2012 2:57am
Another Aussie pair. Still think it's overvalued.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,386
  • Aug 16, 2012 3:32am Aug 16, 2012 3:32am
Quoting stewrigh
Interesting take on FX from April - makes you wonder why we do this.

Commodities anyone?

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012...raders-lament/
I love this line:

"Even the diminutive New Zealand dollar is a lost cause, one trader groaned. If you take a position over NZD25 million, you are the market. Likewise with the currencies of Norway and Sweden. Take a position in those currencies and you’ll have the same position as everyone else on the Street"

Is this guy on crack?

I actually disagree that the market is dead (well except for the EUR/CHF)
Its all about the hold time, look at a weekly charts of the four majors and the three commodity pairs and there is plenty of money in the swings, but as an FX day trader he might be right. I rarely bother looking at charts under Daily.

I guess I'm lucky as I trade Commodities via CFD's which have hugely discounted margins and tick values. This allows us 'on the street' to get involved albeit in a derivative market.

........25 million.......
  • #14,387
  • Aug 16, 2012 3:49am Aug 16, 2012 3:49am
Quoting mypipbull
I love this line:

"Even the diminutive New Zealand dollar is a lost cause, one trader groaned. If you take a position over NZD25 million, you are the market. Likewise with the currencies of Norway and Sweden. Take a position in those currencies and you’ll have the same position as everyone else on the Street"

Is this guy on crack?

I actually disagree that the market is dead (well except for the EUR/CHF)
Its all about the hold time, look at a weekly charts of the four majors and the three commodity pairs and there is plenty of...
Yeah I guess it depends what you look for - I suppose when you could trade the Dmark it was a lot easier to get in the trend and forget it.

Not sure I'd trade equities either, now that is a ponzi scheme.
  • #14,388
  • Aug 16, 2012 8:44am Aug 16, 2012 8:44am
Someone seems to be manipulating the Euro again today......
  • #14,389
  • Edited 9:22am Aug 16, 2012 9:04am | Edited 9:22am
Quoting clockwork71
Someone seems to be manipulating the Euro again today......
I'm reading this two separate ways. (charts attached respective to the scenarios)

Scenario one:
Descending Triangle into Demand. Demand will need to break for the play south to be valid. This formation implies a weakening of demand.

Scenario two: More so a symmetrical triangle marked by lower highs and higher lows. Play the breakout for whichever direction it wants to go. The daily chart HH and HL's would imply a bias to the north though.



Edit. I just want to say, that this move north was painted all over the charts. The euro does not like moving on without getting certain numbers hit. It's extremely strange, and I do not understand why. But, another number that was missed was the 2225 level from the daily chart that I pointed out a week or two ago. That was missed by 20 pips. I wouldn't be surprised to see us break down to at least go tap it.

I seriously would love to understand the market dynamics of why price seems to most of the time (like 98% of the time) go back and retouch the overlapping area of an engulfing candle no matter the force of the initial move.

That is to say, if we have an engulfing candle to the north, price will come back minimum to touch the open of the previous bear candle that gets engulfed. Freaky deeky, man.

For instance, the H4 to the north will want at least 2356 minimum.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,390
  • Aug 16, 2012 9:53am Aug 16, 2012 9:53am
Quoting clockwork71
Someone seems to be manipulating the Euro again today......

Yep Spanish bond manipulation and tbill yields fell looks like I'll get a better price to sell the yoorow. lol.
  • #14,391
  • Aug 16, 2012 10:12am Aug 16, 2012 10:12am
Quoting stewrigh
Interesting take on FX from April - makes you wonder why we do this.

Commodities anyone?
Commodities are no longer safe as well. The assholes at MF Global aren't facing criminal charges. Ridiculous.

The behavior of Wall Street and large firms is getting worse, and they don't know why people aren't investing anymore. This truly worries me, and I believe that the stock markets especially are going to be something very different in the future. In fact, I think that I will see the death of the stock markets in my lifetime.

Simply put, we cannot have a functioning market with only large funds going back and forth in the terms of milliseconds. In fact, I am looking into what to do with my longer-term investments as I want them out of the stock markets before much longer.

Maybe gold......but then again - that's too wild at times. Maybe I will look into rental properties.
  • #14,392
  • Aug 16, 2012 10:13am Aug 16, 2012 10:13am
Quoting Venice
I'm reading this two separate ways. (charts attached respective to the scenarios)

Scenario one:
Descending Triangle into Demand. Demand will need to break for the play south to be valid. This formation implies a weakening of demand.

Scenario two: More so a symmetrical triangle marked by lower highs and higher lows. Play the breakout for whichever direction it wants to go. The daily chart HH and HL's would imply a bias to the north though.



Edit. I just want to say, that this move north was painted all over the charts. The euro does...
I understand what you are saying.....but I am getting news flashes about some idiots in the US pouring a ton of money into EUR/SEK and EUR/NOK......and this in turn is playing havoc everywhere. I was more or less talking about the EUR/CAD pair, but it seems to be everywhere.
  • #14,393
  • Aug 16, 2012 10:14am Aug 16, 2012 10:14am
Remember AUDCHF? looks interesting now


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,394
  • Aug 16, 2012 10:25am Aug 16, 2012 10:25am
Quoting clockwork71
Commodities are no longer safe as well. The assholes at MF Global aren't facing criminal charges. Ridiculous.

The behavior of Wall Street and large firms is getting worse, and they don't know why people aren't investing anymore. This truly worries me, and I believe that the stock markets especially are going to be something very different in the future. In fact, I think that I will see the death of the stock markets in my lifetime.

Simply put, we cannot have a functioning market with only large funds going back and forth in the terms...
You know what they say right?

"Buy land - they ain't making more of it but we're making more people every day."
  • #14,395
  • Aug 16, 2012 3:11pm Aug 16, 2012 3:11pm
Sweet!
Attached Image
  • #14,396
  • Aug 16, 2012 3:18pm Aug 16, 2012 3:18pm
Quoting clockwork71
Maybe I will look into rental properties.
This also is surely a really good time to be buying property with prices so depressed? If you want a better deal why not try the UK housing market? We have even more of a supply problem and prices here are pretty depressed too. A long way to come if someone needs a tap fixed though I suppose
  • #14,397
  • Aug 16, 2012 7:07pm Aug 16, 2012 7:07pm
Quoting stewrigh
Remember AUDCHF? looks interesting now
Attachment
Oh yeah, a daily close below 1.02 and this is going down.....imho
  • #14,398
  • Aug 16, 2012 9:56pm Aug 16, 2012 9:56pm
Quoting clockwork71
Klinsmann coaches the United States to its first victory at the Azteca stadium in Mexico City tonight. Final is 1-0 with a piecemeal side.

Mexico is 110-7 in that stadium. Or I should say was.
Too much for Uncle Sam's Team at the Azteca yesterday!
Sorry to say nonetheless, but It's been quite sometime since I hadn't seen such erratic USA National Soccer Team.
Surely, they will pick it up on the upcoming qualifying games 'cause yesterday's team didn't look good at all.
Greetings!
  • #14,399
  • Aug 17, 2012 12:08am Aug 17, 2012 12:08am
Quoting RoquePlumas
Too much for Uncle Sam's Team at the Azteca yesterday!
Sorry to say nonetheless, but It's been quite sometime since I hadn't seen such erratic USA National Soccer Team.
Surely, they will pick it up on the upcoming qualifying games 'cause yesterday's team didn't look good at all.
Greetings!
The team was a mix of really young players. Most of them were MLS players at that. The real pros were mainly left behind in Europe as it was only a friendly and so close to the opening of the season. The biggest name was certainly Tim Howard.

Mexico had about 90% of their World Cup qualifying squad, which made it that much more impressive. Not pretty......but impressive. You are right they were erratic. However, this is by design as well as Jurgen Klinsmann trying new players and even some at new positions so he can get a real read on how to put together the World Cup team.

I can tell you this though: By beating Mexico in Mexico City, he probably just got a contract extension. Also, if he was to do it during WC qualifying, he could name his own terms on that contract extension.
  • #14,400
  • Aug 17, 2012 1:37am Aug 17, 2012 1:37am
Quoting mypipbull
Oh yeah, a daily close below 1.02 and this is going down.....imho
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