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GBP/JPY

  • #101
  • Edited 6:28am Aug 16, 2012 5:00am | Edited 6:28am
Quoting Jonitfr
2 different harmonic patterns formed on 4h and 1h... time for selling... TP 122.760
Pair is climbing steadily for the whole week. We had good news for GBP today. Pair rejected the 4H Trendline with the Bullish Pin, price is climbing above this Pin... Why do you think it will drop 160 pips? The only obstacle I see is 20 EMA on Weekly chart...but maybe I am wrong, who knows?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #102
  • Aug 16, 2012 5:42am Aug 16, 2012 5:42am
At the post 64:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...03#post5926903
I projected 3 TP levels, second level got hit today. 153 EMA on Daily chart is major EMA. Should the price cross it today/tomorrow then there is reasonable possibility for the price to hit 127 area.
  • #103
  • Edited 6:23am Aug 16, 2012 6:01am | Edited 6:23am
My first post in this thread. Thanks so much for getting it going, especially after the other GJ thread fell by the wayside. I ONLY trade GJ, so I guess I pay pretty close attention to it.

Anyway, back on topic. No chart on this occasion. Everyone reading this has the same stuff in front of them.

OK, ... you all thought today was August 16 or thereabouts (wherever you reside).

Well, you were wrong. Today is February 16, 2012. ......... Really!

Look at your daily chart. Aug3 price moves= Feb 3 price moves, Aug 4 = Feb 4, Aug 5 = Feb 5 and so on. The moves of the last 13 days of August are almost identical to the same period in February. Today, Aug 16 is, so far, the same as February 16.

Move for move. Almost pip for pip.

Yes, some of the moves seem a little less impulsive this time and are sometimes spread out a little more in time, but it does give cause to think where this is going. 126.7 or 127.6 seems logical as targets ............ unless the pattern continues.
  • #104
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:31am Aug 16, 2012 6:31am
Quoting Mpt
My first post in this thread. Thanks so much for getting it going, especially after the other GJ thread fell by the wayside. I ONLY trade GJ, so I guess I pay pretty close attention to it.

Anyway, back on topic. No chart on this occasion. Everyone reading this has the same stuff in front of them.

OK, ... you all thought today was August 16 or thereabouts (wherever you reside).

Well, you were wrong. Today is February 16, 2012. ......... Really!

Look at your daily chart. Aug3 price moves= Feb 3 price moves, Aug 4 = Feb...
EDITED:

Sorry, i was reading 2011. So that means it'll take about another week or so before it goes down?
  • #105
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:31am Aug 16, 2012 6:31am
Quoting thailand5041
Oh look, price landed. What a surprise. NFP tomorow can push price in any direction.
I am not sure why you quote me from 14 days ago?
  • #106
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:32am Aug 16, 2012 6:32am
Quoting thailand5041
Oh look, price landed. What a surprise. NFP tomorow can push price in any direction.
please tell us more about the NFP tomorrow
  • #107
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:33am Aug 16, 2012 6:33am
Quoting Mpt
please tell us more about the NFP tomorrow
There isn't NFP tomorrow, he quoted me from 14 days ago.
  • #108
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:37am Aug 16, 2012 6:37am
Quoting tradechamp
That's an impressive observation. So do you think it'll start to be bearish 3 days from now?
If the pattern were to continue, the answer is no.

Logic tells us that the two price points I mentioned may be the top. I hasten to add that if they are, GJ would become VERY bearish. If price breaks up, though, I would anticipate a double top, probably/possibly continuing in a long term ranging pattern for some months before a major drop.

And an edit following your edit ... yes. If we reach the top in the 126~127 area. But last time, price blew right through it. It was a Monday morning if I recall (where I live). Price opened higher and shot up 300 pips, only to fall back to 126.7.
  • #109
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:45am Aug 16, 2012 6:45am
Quoting Mpt
If the pattern were to continue, the answer is no.

Logic tells us that the two price points I mentioned may be the top. I hasten to add that if they are, GJ would become VERY bearish. If price breaks up, though, I would anticipate a double top, probably/possibly continuing in a long term ranging pattern for some months before a major drop.
I disagree. From my perspective...Looking at the Weekly graph we recently had Double bottom, but second bottom was a Higher Low. In between them we had wave up, after those two bottoms we had Higher high again on the wave up. Then we had a low - a second Higher Low. Then Price finally found a Trendline, making another Higher Low... From my perspective, if Price makes another Higher High we can start talking about the change of the trend. It will not just shoot up but it will return, maybe even for the recent Supportive Trendline.
  • #110
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:54am Aug 16, 2012 6:54am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
I disagree. From my perspective...Looking at the Weekly graph we recently had Double bottom, but second bottom was a Higher Low. In between them we had wave up, after those two bottoms we had Higher high again on the wave up. Then we had a low - a second Higher Low. Then Price finally found a Trendline, making another Higher Low... From my perspective, if Price makes another Higher High we can start talking about the change of the trend. It will not just shoot up but it will return, maybe even for the recent Supportive Trendline.
The bearish argument goes along the lines that the move to 127.3 (intervention) and the next peak at 133.4 were a wave A and C of the very final wave D and the next drop to 118.8 was wave A of E, we are in wave B of E and wave C of E will take GJ down to 103~110.

That is a common argument. But, to be valid, this move would stop at 127.7, meaning this move is 700 pips long.

Should price move above 127.7, then there is a strong chance of an ABCDE pattern forming instead, which drags things out for some months yet.

And yes, any move over about 140 would tend to negate any bearish tone.
  • #111
  • Aug 16, 2012 6:56am Aug 16, 2012 6:56am
Quoting Jonitfr
2 different harmonic patterns formed on 4h and 1h... time for selling... TP 122.760
I see it as well but there is no reason yet to jump in short and if price continues to rise like it is, this pattern will easily be invalid so wait for confirmation before jumping in shorts only because we have a pattern on the chart.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #112
  • Aug 16, 2012 7:02am Aug 16, 2012 7:02am
Quoting grandad
Thanks for great posts especially consistency of Karmostaji.
New to forex and like GBP/JPY plenty of action and medium term up trend.
You're most welcome, I hope we can all learn a thing or two and grab some green pips along the way
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #113
  • Aug 16, 2012 7:20am Aug 16, 2012 7:20am
Will the rise in Consumption Tax to 8% not tend to maintain current trend?
  • #114
  • Aug 16, 2012 10:51am Aug 16, 2012 10:51am
I shorted this pair last night for +25pips.
Seriously high. 124.85 Could go back at least 124.50
I am kind of surprised how little interest this pair gets here.I know the spread is high but this pair can move very quickly.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #115
  • Aug 16, 2012 10:55am Aug 16, 2012 10:55am
Quoting Davit
I shorted this pair last night for +25pips.
Seriously high. 124.85 Could go back at least 124.50
I am kind of surprised how little interest this pair gets here.I know the spread is high but this pair can move very quickly.
Reason for short, please?
  • #116
  • Aug 16, 2012 11:01am Aug 16, 2012 11:01am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
Reason for short, please?
Short answer Cable. At 5735-40 is overbought big time.Its seating on the edge back to 5600
Whenever Cable drops JP drops as well.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #117
  • Aug 16, 2012 11:07am Aug 16, 2012 11:07am
Quoting Davit
Short answer Cable. At 5735-40 is overbought big time.Its seating on the edge back to 5600
Whenever Cable drops JP drops as well.
So you are talking about correlation. But GBPUSD is still missing about 50 pips till Pivot zone, it is not there yet, and looking from far away it seems that it can brake that Pivot zone at 1.579, probably not today, but who knows what next week brings.... Just my view.

By the way, what makes you decide if pair is overbought or oversold, please?
  • #118
  • Aug 16, 2012 11:15am Aug 16, 2012 11:15am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
So you are talking about correlation. But GBPUSD is still missing about 50 pips till Pivot zone, it is not there yet, and looking from far away it seems that it can brake that Pivot zone at 1.579, probably not today, but who knows what next week brings.... Just my view.

By the way, what makes you decide if pair is overbought or oversold, please?
I look at the Euro/GP correlations.They are not in sink.
I look for Cable economic news compare with EU and US
Right at this very day 5740 is overvalued price.I have a short on Cable to 5700.Recent numbers on Cable were not impressive at all.
I am a day trader seldom hold position more then a day hence I can care less what next weeks price may be.Today I am short.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #119
  • Aug 16, 2012 12:08pm Aug 16, 2012 12:08pm
shorted the 'beast' @ 124.6 with 150pip stop loss@ 126.1 and first target =123.1
Nice Gartley Pattern on daily chart,counter short term trend.Long term we're in a downtrend,so let's see what happens.....
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  • #120
  • Aug 16, 2012 12:36pm Aug 16, 2012 12:36pm
Quoting mscf
shorted the 'beast' @ 124.6 with 150pip stop loss@ 126.1 and first target =123.1
Nice Gartley Pattern on daily chart,counter short term trend.Long term we're in a downtrend,so let's see what happens.....
What do you recon about the fact that Price broke the Trendline? Market noise, test of TL?
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