Probability in forex a 100% edge signal?

Probability in forex
Hi, what do you think about this:
I was tested it in broker on EUR/USD with 1pip spread like 1.5000/ 15001
Rule:
We open a position Long 1 lot or can be any other like(0.01) and when price move below 1 pips we open another position 1 lot, and when price move another time 1 pip down, we open another 1lot long and we open and open and repeat it until the price move 1pips in plus we close all posiotions.
Now we count all open LONG positions, so we can have sum of it mayby 23 in a one row.
On second demo account we open a short 1 lot and similar that when price move agains us we buy next positions SHORT and stop when the price move 1 tick/ pips in our trend(down).

So far I have a statistics like this, its for a 2pips on the plus, from 2 week's test
for LONG:
0.01 = 2946// 0.02 = 2254// 0.03 = 1629// 0.04 = 1152// 0.05 = 838// 0.06 = 599// 0.07 = 438// 0.08 = 302// 0.09 = 216// 0.10 = 151// 0.11 = 105// 0.12 = 74// 0.13 = 44// 0.14 = 30// 0.15 = 23// 0.16 = 18// 0.17 = 14// 0.18 = 6// 0.19 = 5// 0.20 = 4// 0.21 = 2// 0.22 = 1// 0.23 = 1// 0.24 = 0
for SHORT:
0.01 = 3038// 0.02 = 2289// 0.03 = 1650// 0.04 = 1194// 0.05 = 843// 0.06 = 622// 0.07 = 412// 0.08 = 274// 0.09 = 186// 0.10 = 134// 0.11 = 82// 0.12 = 60// 0.13 = 41// 0.14 = 27// 0.15 = 16// 0.16 = 11// 0.17 = 6// 0.18 = 5// 0.19 = 4// 0.20 = 1// 0.21 = 0// 0.22 = 0// 0.23 = 0// 0.24 = 0

So for Long it was a 1 series of 23 open in a row, and Short max row was 20 repeat 1, for row 19 it was repeat 4 times.
So 100% perfect signal to buy Long was 1 on 23 row, and then price move in our direction for 2 pips profit.
In the future this statistics maybe change, that whay is importante to colect data.
We can change the parameters like open every LONG when price move in bad direction on 1 pips and close all when price move in our favorite direction on +1 pips, 2, 3, 4, 5, .... 1000pips
So we have a good statistics with almost 100% probability to enter good position and get profit like 1 or 2, or 10 pips.
To a 1 or 2 pips profit we must use a martingale strategy, but 10 or 30 we can only buy at good signal.
We will have a much more signal to buy LONG/ SHORT position when we play at 1,2 profit then a 10 or 20 pips.
In 1, 2 pips profit we will have a requote and slipage, its not a problem with a 10 or 20 or 50 pips profit.

The history data its not similar to real time price, slipage, requote.
So what we need? We only count open positions.
We need a statistics from every currency pair, stock, index, option etc. on every tick data in real time like close at +1, 2, 3, 4, ...150pips to figureat out when is a great signal to take position. We need a get as much data and send it to a server, so every one can see how much the price move up, or down to long and sell signals.
It will be good when someone develope this - sory i dont know how.
Why data from meany useres - to get a full statistics and knowlege how it works exactly on every close + 1, 2, 3, ...
every broker, every currency pair, stock, every spread, every users, every trading platform that can be programete like mt4, oanda etc.
In the future we will se what the statistics is telling to us, when buy and when close

On mt5 the price is close quicker then MT4, check it yoursel.
EA to show you what i have on the mind:
MT4/MT5 - platform
D - demo for statistics
L/S - Long Short
L=const/ L+1 - lot constans or increse 1 then 2 then 3 4 5 ...
I was test it for a broker admiral markets mt4/mt5
External link www wrzuc.to/OAZ4CXTd.wt

So what do u think about this, and yea i know my english hehe

Dam, im not a rookie, dont know why moderator move this thread here. I have 4 yr experiens on trade future, stocks, bond, option and index, i was testing meny strategy and indicators, yea i know so what? So that when we even have a good filing to a price move down and we have a short position open, the price on tick is moving sometime -5, -10 pips and then in our direction. So when it fall down even 60 pips on the h1 chart, on the tick data price move it like max 23 in a row(not tick/pips, but open position LONG) and then climb up for min 2pip. and then still fal down for a 13in a row and climb up for 2pips. When i start to counting thos repeating, was wandering if we all have the same statistics. Yes I was testing this on a real account and earn some money with +2pips close.

As far as I know, any thread with words like "100%", "holy grail", "guaranteed" etc in the title gets moved to the Rookie section. Perfection is not possible, because the market is a mix of anonymous participants with unknown agendas, at any given point in time. Forex Factory does not want to appear foolish, hence any thread that appears to make unrealistic claims is immediately demoted, or even binned.

I don't believe that you can use statistics in the manner that you propose to predict the future. The forex markets are also driven by news, macroeconomics, sentiment, triangular equilibrium, and many other factors, which your system takes no cognizance of.

I see that you mention martingale. Systems lacking a real edge tend to look to dodgy MM techniques to give them a chance of short-term survival. However, martingale ultimately increases risk of ruin without improving expectancy.

It won't work how you have it... opening trades on every pip move will not work because there are gaps. Euro can move hundreds of pips without turning back for long periods.

On a 1 pip opening you could have hundreds of trades open at once which leads to margin problems inevitably.

On a whip saw day you will scratch your head to wonder what happened.

Test it on demo for a long time you'll be glad you did.

I must say I am a bit shocked that somebody with 4 years experience posts about such a system. First, you don't always have liquidity, so that is a problem.
Secondly, when I open one lot from say 1.5000 and price goes down to 1.4950, then I have 50 lots open. But now it doesn't take only 2 pips to become profitable, the average entry price would be 1.4975. Now you need 25 pips just to breakeven.
Or you could double down, like in a martingale system, but martingale systems are anyways the worst mm systems I have seen and will blow your account.

summa summarum: your system doesn't have an edge and am astonished that you have 4 years of experience.

When it happend, the price wll move for exemple like: LONG 12in row +2pips, when we have a 0(zero long) the EA start buy another, next 15 in a row with gap or maybe 3 pips and +2pips, and some like 20 in a row iwth some gap, but newer ptrice move 50 pips with no revers move more like 23, so far, even on nevs or big moves.
We open this 1 lot on DEMO to count how much was opened position LONG to get a profit a +2pips.
This +2pips is a only example we can count for a profit +5 pips or +50pips profit.

The strategy will fail. The end.

The probability in forex is 50/50 in a 1/1 risk reward ratio. Always, Period.
Regardless of the stats you pull from a short time of data.

But it is 50/50 less the spreads.

The more trades you make the more you lose or the less you win.

It would tend to be profitable if you average down every.. say, every 200 pips or so. The system would idle for long periods of time. But not much risk if done with a proper money management.

J.
.

100% in FX doesnt exist. Its a game of probability, better look for a system that has a winning probability of 51% much higher chance that you really are going to find one.

Now Im looking for somthing with 99% winning startegy, maybe this is it, I will check it

100%? 99%? What does it matter?

Perhaps the biggest determinant of a trader's win rate is stoplosses (or loss exits). If you don't use a stoploss, you'll achieve your desired win rate of 100%, because no trade will ever be closed at a loss. But you leave yourself open to account wipeout, if price moves against you far enough.

Conversely, the tighter your stoploss, the more frequently you'll get stopped out, but the losses will be smaller, allowing your account to survive a greater number of trades.

Trading performance is always a compromise between these two factors: win rate (which is what you're talking about), and average net win size to loss size (aka RR, R-value, or payoff ratio). In general, you can only increase one at the expense of the other. The product of these is profit factor, or risk-adjusted-return, and determines the expectancy of your method.

Professional traders focus not on win rate, nor overall return, but on risk management, and flawless execution. The basis of professional trading is a risk model, as explained in this video.

People come to this forum with unconventional ideas that they believe (or at least, hope) will work profitably. I salute their ingenuity and enthusiasm! But has it not occurred to them, that in a world where millions of people — including veteran traders, expert analysts, economists, econophysicists, and math professors; in other words, the smartest minds on the planet — have tinkered with all sorts of trading approaches, but NOBODY has ever discovered a 'holy grail'. The nature of markets, and price movement, obviously explains why. If there is some methodological or MM based gimmick that's a shortcut to forex riches, and is accessible to the retail trader, it would have been discovered long before now, and everybody would be using it. Yet somehow, people don't seem to grasp this. They believe (or hope) that they are smarter than everybody who has previously walked the same road.

Yea know that Im not reinvent the wheel. I was trying to find similar topic, didnt find it, so this is it.
Now im looking for a +10 pips statements, so RR will be a like 1:3, for me looks good, Usually Im trying to play in a long term viem on the market - my best is E/U. Now im checking this system next time will be another, but i will try to figuret put where is the best entry to get only +10 pips - if i have good statistics for it, i will try it on real acoount same like on +2pips.

A good trader can achieve a 98% win rate through fifty trades with equal target/stop ratio. I have done it and lots of people on here probably have their great streaks. A system having this kind of win rate? Not going to happen...

Win rate isn't important anyway. You can actually make more money faster with a low win rate strategy that outsizes your gains by capturing solid portions of trends. Some very solid trend capturing strategies have a win rate of around 40-45%.

The funny thing about the market is... What screws up system is that... Half of the time the market is doing what it's supposed to be doing, the other half of the time when it's not behaving the way it should you have to trade the opposite of what everything says or stay out of the move.

Read the book "Pit Bull" by Martin Schwartz. He talks about how he had his ratios calculated out off MACD, moving average locations vs price and everything... But the stock wasn't behaving the way it should, so he reversed and nailed the trade! You have to understand when the market is doing what the numbers say it should be doing, and know how to adjust when the market isn't doing what the numbers say it should be doing.

100% edge signal..........for me this is a little too low, i like to aim a bit higher
.

So the next goal is 99%? Now I have heard everything..but do let us know if you r strategy works out..99% - smh

I give u:
a 99% that u enter in a good price to get a profit
a 100% that u will see a a edge on history or in the future
and a 101% that it will be repeating all the time

Any other questions ?

But the point is:
When im playing on tick chart the game is faster then a long term sooooo
When u know how to get a +1 pip profit, u will know how to get a +10 profit or + 100pips profit. When u know how to earn a 0,0000001 cent u will know how to earn a 1 milion or sky is the limit money hehe.
When somthing work on tick chart it must work in long term, when u know how to ern a 100 pips u will know how to get a 1 pips.
So or u know how to get cash or not.
So or u have a 0 (zero) or 1
So or u will be have a 0 on your account or u will be earning money.
So or u play 0.01 lot or u play a 1 lot.
So so or u will be playing and earning faster or slower,
When u will know how to earn money on slower u can incrase lot size and earn this sh*t moeny faster.
When u will be earnig money on incrase size lot its easy to get the faster way to take profit.
So in teory its easy to take faster money on short term with big lot size then a smal lots and long term.
And when it can be real (true) that I or YOU can constantly earn a smal profit like + 1, 2 or 5 10 pips that means every can earn on stock.
But when its not possible, like constantly earning a + 1 or 2 ... small pips, that means there isnt a way to get a profit on every time frame.
So is there will be a non edge on + 1 or +2 pips that meany there is only a one way ------- a bankruptcy on every account on every time frame its a matter of time and you always losse your money.
The point is:
When u know how to get a 1 dolar u will be a milioner but this is , and we all know that that 95% of us lose money
So Im only trying to find out is there a way to get some more cash then i have on forex.
And probability i will lose all and have a stop out level
So if this will not work on shot term view (better it must work hehe) - what is a point to play on long term and find out that u lose for a 5 or 30 years in the future.
So if not this then what?
Is there a sense to invest in somthing and get a luck of non zero account? No
And thats im wanna to check it with this system