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Silent Service Method

  • #14,341
  • Aug 11, 2012 8:50am Aug 11, 2012 8:50am
Quoting stewrigh
Problem I have is I am bearish stocks and bullish gold.

Trouble is that they seem so closely correlated, which makes sense I guess because if the dollar is weak then gold should be strong, same with stocks.

Question is, under what circumstances would the dow drop and gold go up. So do I sell the dow or buy gold hmmmm
Zooming in to the charts again they haven't been so well correlated since last August - the dow has gone up and gold has dropped. So maybe?? who knows??
  • #14,342
  • Aug 11, 2012 12:23pm Aug 11, 2012 12:23pm
Quoting stewrigh
Trouble is that they seem so closely correlated, which makes sense I guess because if the dollar is weak then gold should be strong, same with stocks.

Question is, under what circumstances would the dow drop and gold go up. So do I sell the dow or buy gold hmmmm
This is a little known secret: The Dollar AND Gold can rise at the same time. In fact, 15 years ago - it happened quite often.

There is one scenario where all of the things you think can happen: A financial shock to the system. It really depends on how it happens, but the reality is that the Dollar can be bought in times of trouble, as well as Gold. (Especially if the Euro evaporates.) As for stocks, they would tank in a fearful environment.

Not the most likely scenario - but it does happen.
  • #14,343
  • Aug 12, 2012 12:55pm Aug 12, 2012 12:55pm
Go USA!
Attached Image
  • #14,344
  • Aug 12, 2012 1:07pm Aug 12, 2012 1:07pm
Without going into details, I am becoming increasingly worried about the news section of this site.
  • #14,345
  • Aug 12, 2012 2:05pm Aug 12, 2012 2:05pm
Quoting clockwork71
Go USA!
I suppose if your going to get a headache from part of a woman's anatomy, I can think of worse places..........
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #14,346
  • Aug 12, 2012 4:09pm Aug 12, 2012 4:09pm
Quoting clockwork71
Without going into details, I am becoming increasingly worried about the news section of this site.
This site has a news section? Never been there

Well, in a couple of hours it's back to trading for me again, extended summer vacation is over. Placed my weekly pivot lines and everything, ready to go.
I promise to post about trading more and less about everything else
  • #14,347
  • Aug 12, 2012 10:24pm Aug 12, 2012 10:24pm
Quoting clockwork71
Without going into details, I am becoming increasingly worried about the news section of this site.
Not sure exactly what you are referring to but.......all I could think of was this! Baahahaha
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  • #14,348
  • Aug 12, 2012 11:56pm Aug 12, 2012 11:56pm
Quoting mypipbull
Not sure exactly what you are referring to but.......all I could think of was this! Baahahaha
NICE!!!
  • #14,349
  • Aug 13, 2012 10:38am Aug 13, 2012 10:38am
Well. I had a fun ride with the euro last night. It's playing a little counter to the rest of the markets at the moment. This thing feels like it's about ready to fall off of a cliff though.

Markets are bleeeeeding today.
  • #14,350
  • Aug 13, 2012 12:28pm Aug 13, 2012 12:28pm
Quoting Venice
Well. I had a fun ride with the euro last night. It's playing a little counter to the rest of the markets at the moment. This thing feels like it's about ready to fall off of a cliff though.

Markets are bleeeeeding today.
Yeah, I am short EUR/CAD myself.
  • #14,351
  • Edited 4:34pm Aug 13, 2012 1:14pm | Edited 4:34pm
Quoting clockwork71
Yeah, I am short EUR/CAD myself.
Nice! On the H4, it peaked out right at the demand turned supply area.

This is how the market flips me around at times. In order to retest the D>S area, it ends up creating a HH (within the upwave). So then the question... is it just going back to retest the old area, or area we actually turning around? Or maybe I shouldn't consider what I am considering to be a high (and then to be broken...). Ehh... I'm lost

Bastardly, this ol market is.
  • #14,352
  • Aug 13, 2012 2:08pm Aug 13, 2012 2:08pm
Anyone think the Aussie is overvalued? - I read a report today about commodities(coal iron etc) that are taking a hit bcos of the economic outlook.

The Aussie is a commodity currency.

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  • #14,353
  • Aug 13, 2012 4:01pm Aug 13, 2012 4:01pm
Quoting stewrigh
Anyone think the Aussie is overvalued? - I read a report today about commodities(coal iron etc) that are taking a hit bcos of the economic outlook.

The Aussie is a commodity currency.

Attachment
I read a news piece where they linked countries/currencies with AAA ratings to how currencies have fared of late. By that view, Canada, Sweden, Australia, Norway, Singapore should do well.
  • #14,354
  • Aug 13, 2012 5:27pm Aug 13, 2012 5:27pm
Quoting o990l6mh
I read a news piece where they linked countries/currencies with AAA ratings to how currencies have fared of late. By that view, Canada, Sweden, Australia, Norway, Singapore should do well.
I think a lot of this comes down to the market waiting for its next free ride from the central banks. Commods do well - the people get screwed.

AUD will do well if this is true.
  • #14,355
  • Aug 13, 2012 6:36pm Aug 13, 2012 6:36pm
Quoting stewrigh
Anyone think the Aussie is overvalued? - I read a report today about commodities(coal iron etc) that are taking a hit bcos of the economic outlook.

The Aussie is a commodity currency.

Attachment
yes and no, China is in a slow melt by design, they are trying to slow down their construction industry (which effects aussie resources), theres no secret on this. Question is does this mean buying less in total or just reducing the growth? Does India take up the slack, while this is happening, what would you expect to see happen to Euro/US region. If a slow melt will hurt Australia will it relatively hurt US or Euro more?

Of course there is still a carry trade, investors are chasing some return and they arent getting it in Japan, US or Eurozone, unless you have some sort of inside track saying the Greeks are gonna come good on their bonds.. HA!

I think we have a 'new normal' for the AUDUSD, i wouldnt want to be shorting at these levels personally, wait for better confirmation then catching a knife, then again timeframe and trade length can totally spit on all analysis.
Grabbing the bull by the horns!
  • #14,356
  • Aug 13, 2012 7:47pm Aug 13, 2012 7:47pm
Quoting whitegoodman

I think we have a 'new normal' for the AUDUSD.
I have been wondering about this myself. I think that perhaps the Aussie is a bit of both higher yield and safe haven at the same time. I don't know exactly how to articulate it at the moment, but we are certainly seeing a different currency at this point.

More importantly - good to see you T!
  • #14,357
  • Aug 13, 2012 8:03pm Aug 13, 2012 8:03pm
Quoting stewrigh
Anyone think the Aussie is overvalued? - I read a report today about commodities(coal iron etc) that are taking a hit bcos of the economic outlook.

The Aussie is a commodity currency.

Attachment
I got Long at about 1.0 and closed it out a few days ago at about 1.05.
Working in the mining industry in Oz I have been lead to believe that some large local miners are pulling the plug on some of their projects that have yet to be reported to market (the old brother-in-law Stock tip)....this is obviously not so good for the redback.

If anything I will be shorting this pair if/when PA breaks down......probably ride it back down towards the recent weekly low of about 0.96 then buy it again.

Who knows these days though....all you can do is follow price....for me its south from here but the uptrend is still intact for the time being.
  • #14,358
  • Aug 14, 2012 4:55am Aug 14, 2012 4:55am
Quoting mypipbull
I got Long at about 1.0 and closed it out a few days ago at about 1.05.
Working in the mining industry in Oz I have been lead to believe that some large local miners are pulling the plug on some of their projects that have yet to be reported to market (the old brother-in-law Stock tip)....this is obviously not so good for the redback.

If anything I will be shorting this pair if/when PA breaks down......probably ride it back down towards the recent weekly low of about 0.96 then buy it again.

Who knows these days though....all you can do is follow...
Interesting.... I forgot that you worked in the mining sector - should have talked to you!
  • #14,359
  • Aug 14, 2012 9:10am Aug 14, 2012 9:10am
Quoting mypipbull
I got Long at about 1.0 and closed it out a few days ago at about 1.05.
Working in the mining industry in Oz I have been lead to believe that some large local miners are pulling the plug on some of their projects that have yet to be reported to market (the old brother-in-law Stock tip)....this is obviously not so good for the redback.

If anything I will be shorting this pair if/when PA breaks down......probably ride it back down towards the recent weekly low of about 0.96 then buy it again.

Who knows these days though....all you can do is...
From a technical perspective, and what I have been talking about for the last few weeks... is the compression being put into place as well. I think we will see .077 levels but not much more than that. Then it will unwind something fierce.
  • #14,360
  • Aug 14, 2012 1:41pm Aug 14, 2012 1:41pm
Quoting mypipbull
I got Long at about 1.0 and closed it out a few days ago at about 1.05.
Working in the mining industry in Oz I have been lead to believe that some large local miners are pulling the plug on some of their projects that have yet to be reported to market (the old brother-in-law Stock tip)....this is obviously not so good for the redback.

If anything I will be shorting this pair if/when PA breaks down......probably ride it back down towards the recent weekly low of about 0.96 then buy it again.

Who knows these days though....all you can do is follow...
Mixed messages in here but my bias is still short looking at the chart and if RBA cut rates again it should drop.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...376488508.html
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