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Silent Service Method

  • #14,321
  • Aug 8, 2012 7:12pm Aug 8, 2012 7:12pm
Quoting mypipbull
C12,Venice & CW,
Thanks for the replies. Its interesting how we all approach things slightly differently. I just find limit orders counter intuitive as I 'feel more comfortable' getting taken in by price using stop entries. Venice, you are right about getting run over 50/50......i guess it balances out as buying a breakout on a stop is much the same due to false breaks. Limit entries are something i would love to work on more as when they work out well they seem to be able to be used with a small stop.
Thanks guys
The only way to overcome the 50/50 nature of all entries really is to make sure you take advantage of profitable trades. Its a cliche for a reason: You must let profits run. Also, when you trade with the trend - I think you have more than a 50/50 shot on any given trade, as long as you are also using resistance, support, etc with the entry.
  • #14,322
  • Aug 8, 2012 8:28pm Aug 8, 2012 8:28pm
Quoting clockwork71
....You must let profits run.....
aahhh....that ol' chestnut

I agree with the weight of evidence thing.....trend + S/R = >50% win rate.
  • #14,323
  • Edited 9:03pm Aug 8, 2012 8:53pm | Edited 9:03pm
Uggg. This market is dumb. They dont want to let it drop but not willing enough to take it any higher either. Blehh.

I take it... the dollar is just going to be all devalued until after elections?

You know, because we can't have the ol stock market take a plunge, because for some reason, that is a measure of economic stability.
  • #14,324
  • Aug 9, 2012 6:01am Aug 9, 2012 6:01am
Sorry. I'm done complaining now. Price should go back to the 2224 area to retest the rally base. Ill be looking to buy there. Their is a lot of price in the way down to it though, so it may not make it that far.

HH and HL on the daily...
  • #14,325
  • Aug 9, 2012 6:53am Aug 9, 2012 6:53am
Quoting Venice
Sorry. I'm done complaining now. Price should go back to the 2224 area to retest the rally base. Ill be looking to buy there. Their is a lot of price in the way down to it though, so it may not make it that far.

HH and HL on the daily...
Should get there but not sure I like that wick for a long. If we get a retrace to the circled area first I'd take a short to target that level.
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  • #14,326
  • Aug 9, 2012 8:25am Aug 9, 2012 8:25am
Quoting Venice
Uggg. This market is dumb. They dont want to let it drop but not willing enough to take it any higher either. Blehh.

I take it... the dollar is just going to be all devalued until after elections?

You know, because we can't have the ol stock market take a plunge, because for some reason, that is a measure of economic stability.

I know you are only venting, but the comment about the stock market is spot on. We have entered a generation where the stock markets have absolutely nothing to do with economics.

And Wall Street wonders when the retail investor comes back. lol
  • #14,327
  • Aug 9, 2012 3:22pm Aug 9, 2012 3:22pm
Quoting clockwork71
I know you are only venting, but the comment about the stock market is spot on. We have entered a generation where the stock markets have absolutely nothing to do with economics.

And Wall Street wonders when the retail investor comes back. lol

Jim thinks the dollar and markets are gonna crash too.

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  • #14,328
  • Aug 9, 2012 3:37pm Aug 9, 2012 3:37pm
Quoting stewrigh
Jim thinks the dollar and markets are gonna crash too.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALnwPKJT7S0
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=E...41,13874A&p=w1

What I find interesting... Is this looks compressed all to hell. And we are now approaching the supply area that ends up kicking the party off. When? Who knows... but if this does actually let go... it's going to go brutal. Compression completes its move... in just a few bars.
  • #14,329
  • Aug 9, 2012 10:02pm Aug 9, 2012 10:02pm
Quoting Venice
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=E...41,13874A&p=w1

What I find interesting... Is this looks compressed all to hell. And we are now approaching the supply area that ends up kicking the party off. When? Who knows... but if this does actually let go... it's going to go brutal. Compression completes its move... in just a few bars.
I suspect the Bond market has already shown its hand here.
Quarterly 30 year T-Bond chart says it all. This is a 'sell to hell' trade if ever I saw one (pin in formation). Forget the inverse relations with Bonds / Stocks, this 'ideal' may work when things are going swimmingly, in case nobody noticed.....things aren't.
When it all turns to custard the 'Market' will get the crap kicked out of it.
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  • #14,330
  • Aug 10, 2012 12:40am Aug 10, 2012 12:40am
Quoting mypipbull
I suspect the Bond market has already shown its hand here.
Quarterly 30 year T-Bond chart says it all. This is a 'sell to hell' trade if ever I saw one (pin in formation). Forget the inverse relations with Bonds / Stocks, this 'ideal' may work when things are going swimmingly, in case nobody noticed.....things aren't.
When it all turns to custard the 'Market' will get the crap kicked out of it.
Interesting chart. Certainly something to be watching........of course, the Fed is distorting the markets at the moment, so who knows?
  • #14,331
  • Aug 10, 2012 8:30am Aug 10, 2012 8:30am
Manchester United rings the bell at the NYSE........

A dark day on Wall Street indeed.
  • #14,332
  • Edited 8:57am Aug 10, 2012 8:44am | Edited 8:57am
The Aussie hit my retrace target of 1.05009. Now just waiting on the euro fatty for the 20 pips or so it needs to go to 2224. Probably no new positions out of me for the week, will look for agreeing PA on the lower time frames though starting Sunday for some longs.

The move is a little too obvious. I may get run over
  • #14,333
  • Aug 10, 2012 9:16am Aug 10, 2012 9:16am
Quoting clockwork71
Manchester United rings the bell at the NYSE........

A dark day on Wall Street indeed.
Why?

Elite soccer as well as the elite levels in all other sports is just big business now anyway so I don't see how this will change anything really. (Man Utd is the team I've always had in my heart btw)

I'd rather see this happen than see rich criminals like Abramovich take control of great clubs.
  • #14,334
  • Aug 10, 2012 11:52am Aug 10, 2012 11:52am
Quoting o990l6mh
Why?

Elite soccer as well as the elite levels in all other sports is just big business now anyway so I don't see how this will change anything really. (Man Utd is the team I've always had in my heart btw)

I'd rather see this happen than see rich criminals like Abramovich take control of great clubs.
I don't have a problem w/ clubs offering shares. In fact, I am a share owner of the mighty Swindon Town FC in England, and the ever more impressive Porthmadog FC in the League of Wales. (Also know ironically as "LoW". lol)

It's the Man United part that ruined the day. I would rather invest in a decent club like East Fife in Scotland, or Rigsby's School for Indigent Urchins FC in Cornwall.

Man United......pfff.
  • #14,335
  • Aug 10, 2012 11:53am Aug 10, 2012 11:53am
Quoting Venice
The Aussie hit my retrace target of 1.05009. Now just waiting on the euro fatty for the 20 pips or so it needs to go to 2224. Probably no new positions out of me for the week, will look for agreeing PA on the lower time frames though starting Sunday for some longs.

The move is a little too obvious. I may get run over
It's that age old question......is the light at the end of the tunnel an opening" Or is it a train?
  • #14,336
  • Aug 10, 2012 1:25pm Aug 10, 2012 1:25pm
Quoting clockwork71
I don't have a problem w/ clubs offering shares. In fact, I am a share owner of the mighty Swindon Town FC in England, and the ever more impressive Porthmadog FC in the League of Wales. (Also know ironically as "LoW". lol)

It's the Man United part that ruined the day. I would rather invest in a decent club like East Fife in Scotland, or Rigsby's School for Indigent Urchins FC in Cornwall.

Man United......pfff.
Aha, well tastes are individual. I've loved Man U since the days of Eric Cantona, Ryan Giggs etc. And there's just one Sir Alex in this world.

Btw, if you want to invest in Scotland, I hear there's a small money need in Glasgow Rangers...
  • #14,337
  • Aug 10, 2012 1:26pm Aug 10, 2012 1:26pm
Quoting Venice
http://finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=E...41,13874A&p=w1

What I find interesting... Is this looks compressed all to hell. And we are now approaching the supply area that ends up kicking the party off. When? Who knows... but if this does actually let go... it's going to go brutal. Compression completes its move... in just a few bars.

What do you reckon guys - I'm no fan of hanging men but I do like divergence.

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  • #14,338
  • Aug 10, 2012 10:48pm Aug 10, 2012 10:48pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Aha, well tastes are individual. I've loved Man U since the days of Eric Cantona, Ryan Giggs etc. And there's just one Sir Alex in this world.

Btw, if you want to invest in Scotland, I hear there's a small money need in Glasgow Rangers...
Never trust a Frenchman. Especially if he flips his collar up like Cantona.

I have been an Arsenal fan for ages - could never root for United. I do have to admit I always did like Giggs though.....although I would never say that out loud!
  • #14,339
  • Aug 10, 2012 10:51pm Aug 10, 2012 10:51pm
Quoting stewrigh
What do you reckon guys - I'm no fan of hanging men but I do like divergence.
I can only tell you what I think, which isn't worth much to be honest. I think that the markets are going to continue to run on "hopium" for the next couple of weeks, as the Fed will find a way to ease again. The markets demand this, and Bernanke gives it. However, there is a real chance that the markets don't get as much as they want. This would be bad for the indices.

However, we could see a bit of a fall based on your charts, but I think of it more as a pullback than anything else. We are in the lowest liquidity of the year, and the big firms are all on vacation. In September, we will have that Fed meeting, and the real reaction will be seen. I think that is when we could see a real move....

Again, just my thoughts.....and thoughts aren't worth much.
  • #14,340
  • Aug 11, 2012 8:24am Aug 11, 2012 8:24am
Quoting clockwork71
I can only tell you what I think, which isn't worth much to be honest. I think that the markets are going to continue to run on "hopium" for the next couple of weeks, as the Fed will find a way to ease again. The markets demand this, and Bernanke gives it. However, there is a real chance that the markets don't get as much as they want. This would be bad for the indices.

However, we could see a bit of a fall based on your charts, but I think of it more as a pullback than anything else. We are in the lowest liquidity of the year, and the big firms...
Problem I have is I am bearish stocks and bullish gold.

Trouble is that they seem so closely correlated, which makes sense I guess because if the dollar is weak then gold should be strong, same with stocks.

Question is, under what circumstances would the dow drop and gold go up. So do I sell the dow or buy gold hmmmm
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