Amyc Trade Journal

thanks Dan

Im having a good week. I hope all is well with you too.


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Im selling my 400cc motorbike at the moment. I liked it, but I want a different one. bikes are really cheap here in Japan.

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/11681/m_...g93n-442kb.jpg

here is an example of how one of these bikes goes like on the track, looks like lots of fun. I got my bike license a year ago.

I went short AU last night as it reached my short zone. shorted 1.0440 + 1.0438

http://my.jetscreenshot.com/11681/m_...ebb0-152kb.jpg

Im holding my short position, added at 1.0416.

AU 3rd quarter levels. possibly I may short AU at these levels with a new month opening. 1st attempt 1.0534 - 1.0568.
another area may come into play at 1.0645 the 3 x monthly 61% high.

1.0534 1 x weekly 50% high
1.0540 3 x daily 50% high
1.0546 3 x monthly 50% high
1.0547 3 x weekly 50% high
1.0559 5 x daily 50% high
1.0564 3 x daily 61% high
1.0568 1 x weekly 61% high
1.0590 3 x weekly 61% high
1.0596 5 x daily 61% high

AU is trading about 90 pips above the monthly highs. the new monthly levels tomorrow will be of interest.
the current 80 pip range bar will complete at 1.0557 - 1.0558 area, if PA trades there.

watching AU here after the rate announcement.

1.0601 was the high. that may be the high. price has gone close to 30 pips away from the high, if it can pull back and not take out the high and form a hook structure. then I think I will try a short. weekly highs 1.0596 + 1.0612 , 3x daily 50% highs + 5 x daily 50% highs 1.0610. more highs too 5 x 4hr 1.0602 + 1.0608, 2 x 12hr and daily highs 1.0593 + 1.0599. monthly 50% highs at 1.0597.

I have one entry idea after PA has peaked out (at an area with multiple levels forming a confluence area.) then take trade at 5x4hr mid area, for price rejecting this area and continuing down.
another idea is letting price peak out (at an area with multiple levels forming a confluence area) then reversing 30 pips then trade the pull back hook structure . today this is 1.0601 - 1.0571.
another idea is just trading the level area aggressively using some trend lines like this 2nd chart below.
my goal is to find which entry idea works best.

AUDUSD, the 1.06 area was definately a nice area to go short. I have attached 2 charts from strong daily points of interest. We had a break and extend month on the 1 period but not on the 3 period monthly so once we got to the outer level on the 1mth a retace was due especially combined with the trend lines on the daily, see 2nd chart.

bella

hi Bella

very nice charts. well done. I can understand the break and extend pattern, looks like from breaking July monthly 50% high and extending to August monthly 50% high.

Is the lower August line, the 3 x monthly balance point ? (I call it mid on the charts I post)

Nice idea putting the monthly levels on a daily chart the way you have done it. looks very clear and easy to recognise and trade.

USDX.. 4 hr picture.. i am long euud because of usdx.. pivot resistance on chart and current shapes on 4 and 1 hr CCI

hi Dan

thanks for posting.
Im short AU until 1.0200 area if it goes well.
ES s+p 500 mini futures looks to have found resistance at 1400 area.

Im not trading EU at present, but hope your trade goes well.

Hi danc
I spotted (and posted elsewhere about 9hrs ago) eur ascending triangle, normally a sell set up, 4hr sell divergence and reject candles on D. So all in all thought eur a sell today.

Yeah i saw you r call on that V.. and u were rite.. but am working diffrent method here.. will will explain on yr thred later.. later..

Hi Ian,

I'm short to the 1.0325 area. GL!

-Marc

usdx.. still below.. pivot band .. fingers crossed..short.. 4 hr chart

Hi Marc

thanks for posting. I hope you daughter is doing well. My daughter turned 5 last month, the time goes so fast.

Im not sure if this is the best ship to be on at present. AU has weekly 50 % high at 1.0596 and the weekly 61% high at 1.0612. Price today has managed to get up to 1.0611.

Im currently short again after being stopped out.
short at 1.0600.

This trade may still work out fine from here, but ES s+p500 mini futures is still trading near its highs at 1400 area and has busted through its weekly trendline . Amy posted last month :

amyc | Jul 4, 2012
the s&p needs 1450 imo before a sizeable decline can occur.

amyc | Jul 3, 2012
Also I am not bearish on us equities and won't be until August at the earliest, so there may be limited downside for currencies until that changes.


So if AU continues higher and takes out 1.0612, my stop is 1.0620. I will sit on the sidelines and re-evaluate. the idea of s+p hitting 1450 may be the best way to go. when I shorted AU from 1.0438 on about July 19th, it acted very differently and took off for a 270 pip decline.

price will need to start trading below 1.0524.

one clear observation I see from this chart is that 1.0524 the weekly mid has supported price all week. in the event of AU continuing higher, that was the place to enter long to 1.0790.

Nice.

4 hr ud x.. current hi is 3 week mid and mth mid.. aalso 50% CCI has turned down.. currently between..2 setts of pivots..resting on weekly mid and 5 weekly mid..i remain long EU..

The smile is good for 1000 words, just like a picture. thankyou.

hope your doing well.

hi Dan

EU 1.2303 is key level. the weekly mid + 5x daily mid is there. PA must be above for longs. 9 pips away at present.

The Really Useless Thread. I like to read it.

Thanks Ian