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Perfect Wave - 2012-2/2

  • #41
  • Aug 6, 2012 4:50pm Aug 6, 2012 4:50pm
Thanks a million for the chart Dean. It supports my view as well.No position yet. Will wait for tomorrow as it's Wednesday, Carry trades usually are bullish due to triple interest rates, so i'll wait.

Regards
STING
  • #42
  • Aug 6, 2012 4:53pm Aug 6, 2012 4:53pm
Quoting snowrider
Thank you stringfx for the suggestion. I'll think about it ...
STING
  • #43
  • Aug 8, 2012 8:43am Aug 8, 2012 8:43am
I got another lucky number:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-hlz-gBfRyL...s1600/7777.jpg
  • #44
  • Aug 8, 2012 10:53am Aug 8, 2012 10:53am
Good on you SR. Might bring you luck in your trades

I took partial profit on EU yesterday and left half on BE which hit SL.

I have another buy on EU at 1.2332. TP at 1.2515.

Good luck on your positions everyone..

STING
  • #45
  • Aug 8, 2012 10:46pm Aug 8, 2012 10:46pm
Quoting stringfx
Good on you SR. Might bring you luck in your trades

I took partial profit on EU yesterday and left half on BE which hit SL.

I have another buy on EU at 1.2332. TP at 1.2515.

Good luck on your positions everyone..

  • #46
  • Aug 12, 2012 2:11am Aug 12, 2012 2:11am
Wave Count

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bfSFnV_IOB...SP+-+Daily.png

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6Sztfriy6F...PY+-+Daily.png

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jpZ_sPT01N...ld+-+Daily.png

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YEGaCzmHvO...UR+-+Daily.png
  • #47
  • Aug 12, 2012 11:10pm Aug 12, 2012 11:10pm
NZDUSD @ .8117

BULL TARGET ZONES:
1) 8168 / 8179
2) 8238 / 8252
3) 8274 / 8286
4) 8341 / 8353

BEAR TARGET ZONES:
1) 8058 / 8042
2) 7956 / 7929
3) 7853 / 7839
4) 7797 / 7784


OBSERVATIONS:
Price continues to trade within the boundaries of a potential Elliott Wave corrective pattern identified as an expanding triangle. If in fact this pattern is developing, then price may have begun its final leg of the pattern to the downside.

The "textbook" rules for this particular pattern are similar to a regular triangle in that the sub-waves still must divide into five threes (five waves each with three subwaves). Waves C, D and E each moves beyond the end of the preceding same-directional wave, and waves B, C, and D each retrace at least 100% but no more than 150% of the preceding wave - the “guideline” being 105% to 125%.
~Elliott Wave Principal, Page 91~

The measurements thru wave d(aqua) are within the textbook parameters, however, there are no guidelines for the potential or typical ending points for wave e.

If this pattern unfolds, wave e(aqua) targets are difficult to determine.
If this pattern unfolds, and price is to continue to the upside upon completion of the pattern, then wave e(aqua) could end anywhere from .8012 to .7784.

EXIT STRATEGY:
If price closes beyond the .8239 area, before declining to .8012, it may disqualify the expanding triangle pattern, and the anticipation may be for price to test higher targets.

Feedback Welcomed !!!!! Happy Trading All !!!!!!!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012.08.12.NU.wo.FFPost.jpg Size: 88 KB
  • #48
  • Aug 15, 2012 9:52pm Aug 15, 2012 9:52pm
http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/0...principle.html
Quote
Snowrider, Thank you for your response. May be I did not pick a good example. Say, today is the bottom of the previous (down) wave (before the establishment of wave 1 and 2), then how is one going to ascertain whether this is a 3-wave correction or a 5-wave progressive wave? Or, do you trade wave 1, 2 at all? Or, you will trade through all the 5 waves (in one hit), riding through the wave 2/4 corrections, a swing trade, or do you get out of wave 1, then position for wave 2, and then wave 3 ...... 4, and then 5.
When we deal with something very complex, a good idea is to simplify the process. Keep it simple and stupid (KISS Principle). How to? We first look at the chart and make a guess (with some imagination) about what the wave structure the market is forming most likely. With a scenario in our mind, we then *peg* an existing wave by assuming that wave is something. For example, we make an assertion that the stock market is going to surge tomorrow because the market has finished wave-2 today. With that assertion, we will need to find out two things:

1. what a correct movement (in favor of us) is, and
2. what market movement will invalidate our assertion

For example, if the market does surge, then our preferred wave count is correct; if the market goes below yesterday's low, then the wave-2 has not finished yet.

About the second question, we need to understand what purpose each wave segment serves:
wave-1: recover after panic or climax
wave-2: accumulation
wave-3: moving the price
wave-4: distribution
wave-5: panic or climax (false break)
So my answer to your second question is that I trade wave-3 only most of the time.
  • #49
  • Aug 19, 2012 4:43pm Aug 19, 2012 4:43pm
Wave Count

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-nb4dpLxL6t...SP+-+Daily.png

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-94vm-vD6ne...PY+-+Daily.png

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-5E2g_LNcff...ld+-+Daily.png

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7iTjigWQGe...UR+-+Daily.png
  • #50
  • Aug 21, 2012 5:43pm Aug 21, 2012 5:43pm
OCO Order and Trading Wave-3

Ideally, it's true to stay away corrections in order to make life easier and to make the best use of the trading money to trade only the fastest movements. However, it is not that easy to clearly identify a corrective wave. Also, if you are managing a large fund, wave-2 is where you use for accumulating and wave-4 for distributing because it is not possible to get fully loaded at the very moment when wave-3 is confirmed. Most of the time the confirmation is coming from the penetration of some key area, and it's very hard to load much when the market moves very fast at that moment.

About the idea to "trade only wave 3 (and 5) of wave C", it is essentially trading the impulsive wave of a lower timeframe. (Remember that we talked about to trade the timeframe that we count the wave? in http://perfectew.blogspot.com/2012/0...have-been.html)
  • #51
  • Aug 23, 2012 6:12pm Aug 23, 2012 6:12pm
Wave Count - SP

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-PQOkrANKNa...SP+-+Daily.png
  • #52
  • Aug 24, 2012 7:58am Aug 24, 2012 7:58am
Good morning! I turn on my computers and see these lucky numbers come together: 8888 & 111

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-uORexXLmPT...s1600/8888.png
  • #53
  • Aug 26, 2012 12:15am Aug 26, 2012 12:15am
Wave Count

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-aJ1GphppQv...SP+-+Daily.png

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zfNJ-sxXly...PY+-+Daily.png

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kg85QRYSOi...ld+-+Daily.png

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-h7sjFf0YdR...UR+-+Daily.png
  • #54
  • Aug 29, 2012 6:25pm Aug 29, 2012 6:25pm
Quote
Snowrider, As you know, I have only started to read your posts recently, and am glad to learn that you do not use indicators. I am in a love-hate situation with indicators. I would like to get rid of them completely, however, they nevertheless give me some indication, even though, at times, they do not work at all, but which I have prepared for. Would you be happy to tell me your view point of indicators, and why you dislike them? And how would you be able to notice divergence(s)?
I did started from using TA indicators, and I have played all indicators inside out before throwing them away. I understand and know them too well so that I won't use them. Given a TA indicator, you can ask yourself some simple questions about that indicator:
1. Do you know how to use it?
2. Do you know the formula (how it is calculated)?
3. Do you know the idea behind the formula (why it is designed that way)?
4. Do you know what timeframes that indicator work best with what parameter values?
Once you know the formula, have you thought about tweaking it a little bit or create your own formula? Once you create your own formular (your own TA indicator), you might be wondering what the optimal parameter values for your indicator are? At that moment, you might want to start playing system trading. You will then write you own systems and start back-testing historical data. In the end, you might succeed on that route - system trading. However, I did not, so I threw away everything and went back to price action/behavior. Please read more:
System Trading vs Elliott Wave (I, II, and III)
About the question of identifying divergence ... EW has some very good patterns for you to identify the end of a wave. For example, the Ending Diagonal Triangle pattern will bring your TA indicators to divergence. You don't need an indicator to tell you that because the chart already told you.
  • #55
  • Aug 31, 2012 11:42am Aug 31, 2012 11:42am
Hi SR,

[your abbrev itself is support resistance :-)]

Thanks for the charts. I have one more request. Is it possible for you to give a count on dollar index chart (daily time frame) whenever time permits? thanks.

on eur/usd, i feel your alt count down to 1.2000 seems more possible. (just my view)
STING
  • #56
  • Sep 1, 2012 2:02pm Sep 1, 2012 2:02pm
Hi stringfx - Interesting! I did not notice that I have such a interesting screen name. I'll put that in my signature. Thanks!

Quoting stringfx
Hi SR,

[your abbrev itself is support resistance :-)]

Thanks for the charts. I have one more request. Is it possible for you to give a count on dollar index chart (daily time frame) whenever time permits? thanks.

on eur/usd, i feel your alt count down to 1.2000 seems more possible. (just my view)
  • #57
  • Sep 2, 2012 11:27am Sep 2, 2012 11:27am
STING
  • #58
  • Sep 2, 2012 3:41pm Sep 2, 2012 3:41pm
Wave Count

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-dwab4bpSCK...SP+-+Daily.png

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mpsCowBHUJ...PY+-+Daily.png

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-N9JoWDzRv0...ld+-+Daily.png

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kusV_K-haU...UR+-+Daily.png
  • #59
  • Sep 9, 2012 1:09pm Sep 9, 2012 1:09pm
Wave Count

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-WgpopLbo43...SP+-+Daily.png

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SL0EQzhPSR...PY+-+Daily.png

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-leOV70pAeK...ld+-+Daily.png

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YzQwA9GeES...UR+-+Daily.png
  • #60
  • Sep 16, 2012 12:56am Sep 16, 2012 12:56am
Wave Count

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PPGR7FwgW4...SP+-+Daily.png

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-KCuhnFGlhg...PY+-+Daily.png

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-h9uU4O0Po0...ld+-+Daily.png

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ua9_M3XHzD...UR+-+Daily.png
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