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  • #41
  • Aug 4, 2012 6:16am Aug 4, 2012 6:16am
Quoting Mingary
Trading is so much NOT like a business. This idea is pushed so hard to give it some sort of legitimacy.
in trading just like in business is having to anticipate the next move of the markets that you're involved in. if you do not treat it with the same energy and dedication that you will treat a business you will fail. are you a failure ?
  • #42
  • Aug 4, 2012 7:01am Aug 4, 2012 7:01am
Quoting deltatrade
are you a failure ?
  • #43
  • Aug 4, 2012 7:15am Aug 4, 2012 7:15am
Quoting deltatrade
in trading just like in business is having to anticipate the next move of the markets that you're involved in. if you do not treat it with the same energy and dedication that you will treat a business you will fail. are you a failure ?
We are all failures until we succeed. As the ancient Japanese proverb tells us " Failure teaches success ".
  • #44
  • Aug 4, 2012 7:27am Aug 4, 2012 7:27am
Quoting cat
We are all failures until we succeed. As the ancient Japanese proverb tells us " Failure teaches success ".
failing at gambling it's not a build up for later success. it is futile work and it's stupid. if someone says trading is gambling why the f would you persist at it? just to be a negative nancy on a serious forum? or they are here just for the fun of gambling?
  • #45
  • Aug 4, 2012 9:18am Aug 4, 2012 9:18am
Quoting deltatrade
in trading just like in business is having to anticipate the next move of the markets that you're involved in. if you do not treat it with the same energy and dedication that you will treat a business you will fail. are you a failure ?
Trading does not fit the definition of "business", but is very close to the definition of "Gambling".

Analogy:

Business: Put energy and dedication in baking a vanilla cake ==> you get a vanilla cake (quality varies), the outcome is (mostly) certain

Trading: Put energy and dedication in baking a vanilla cake, sometimes you get a vanilla cake (enormous quality variations), sometimes you get a chocolate cake (enormous quality variations) ==> the outcome is (totally) uncertain.

Therefore planning and managing cannot be done, therefore trading cannot be run as a business.
  • #46
  • Aug 4, 2012 9:39am Aug 4, 2012 9:39am
Quoting Mingary
Trading does not fit the definition of "business", but is very close to the definition of "Gambling".

Analogy:

Business: Put energy and dedication in baking a vanilla cake ==> you get a vanilla cake (quality varies), the outcome is (mostly) certain

you're forgetting one thing. the market aspect of the business. you do not now if the vanilla cake will be sold at the price you want or in the quantity that you want. when dealing with future outcomes of business you're always dealing with probabilities exactly like in trading. you don't know whether to produce more or less of that good and you have to take a risk everytime you make that good. i don't care that you know how to make a vanilla cake . the most important thing in business is whether you have a good market of vanilla cake or not.
  • #47
  • Aug 4, 2012 10:01am Aug 4, 2012 10:01am
The reason I said trading is like a business is because I am a coffee trader. Not those traders who trade coffee futures , ETFs, or CFDs but I trade real physical coffee. I buy them straight from the plantations n distributes them. I see no difference between having that real coffee business n trading something I don't see. Both mechanics are the same. Supply demand and price is the common denominator. So trading is not gambling it is only gambling if you decide to go into the trade without planning. Imagine if I buy the beans at a high price and hoping That demand for coffee will pick up, that is a risk. It is not a risk if I know the trend will be up and I buy now. Like all things I follow the trend. I don't based my decisions on hope. If you are then you are gambling.
  • #48
  • Aug 4, 2012 10:07am Aug 4, 2012 10:07am
Quoting deltatrade
you're forgetting one thing. the market aspect of the business. you do not now if the vanilla cake will be sold at the price you want or in the quantity that you want. when dealing with future outcomes of business you're always dealing with probabilities exactly like in trading. you don't know whether to produce more or less of that good and you have to take a risk everytime you make that good. i don't care that you know how to make a vanilla cake . the most important thing in business is whether you have a good market of vanilla cake or not.
Great if this were true, but in trading it's not. In trading you never know if you have a good market or not (a trade is a bet)... and only after the fact.
also, in business it's possible to manage known risks or even emerging risks. But trading is all about black swans -- risks that cannot be known.
A business cannot survive if the risks are unknown.
Therefore trading cannot be run as a business and long term, any trading strategy is doomed to failure.
  • #49
  • Aug 4, 2012 10:15am Aug 4, 2012 10:15am
Quoting Mingary
Great if this were true, but in trading it's not. In trading you never know if you have a good market or not
false statement. you have to find things that actually predict price movements from the begining of the markets to these days. if you haven't done so than trading is not for you and you will obviously fail.
  • #50
  • Aug 4, 2012 10:23am Aug 4, 2012 10:23am
Quoting Mingary
Great if this were true, but in trading it's not. In trading you never know if you have a good market or not (a trade is a bet)... and only after the fact.
also, in business it's possible to manage known risks or even emerging risks. But trading is all about black swans -- risks that cannot be known.
A business cannot survive if the risks are unknown.
Therefore trading cannot be run as a business and long term, any trading strategy is doomed to failure.
Believe me businesses are full of black swans. These are called business risks. I have worked in third world economies and believe you me anything can happen when operating in such environment. Trading is not long term a business is? Count and name me companies that have survived the "long term". How many still survive out of the many companies that started. Let's go say 50 to 100 years ago till now. And don't tell me ford motors coz they got bailed out...
  • #51
  • Aug 4, 2012 10:23am Aug 4, 2012 10:23am
Quoting deltatrade
false statement. you have to find things that actually predict price movements from the begining of the markets to these days. if you haven't done so than trading is not for you and you will obviously fail.
It is not possible to predict price movements. It it were possible that person would own the universe.
It is perhaps possible to predict price movements some of the time, under certain conditions and in doing so opening the door to the situation I am describing.
  • #52
  • Aug 4, 2012 10:31am Aug 4, 2012 10:31am
with a certain degree of accuracy you can predict price movements. a lot of people have done this till now. they do not own the universe but exceptionally good traders make it to forbes 100. a lot of wealth is created as we speak.
  • #53
  • Aug 4, 2012 10:31am Aug 4, 2012 10:31am
Quoting cotnet
Believe me businesses are full of black swans. These are called business risks. I have worked in third world economies and believe you me anything can happen when operating in such environment. Trading is not long term a business is? Count and name me companies that have survived the "long term". How many still survive out of the many companies that started. Let's go say 50 to 100 years ago till now. And don't tell me ford motors coz they got bailed out...
Yes, businesses have black swans too and they fail.
A trading "business" is a lot less long term than a "normal" business.
  • #54
  • Aug 4, 2012 10:32am Aug 4, 2012 10:32am
Mingary, answer the question "Are you a failure?"

I'm eagerly waiting for your answer









  • #55
  • Aug 4, 2012 10:38am Aug 4, 2012 10:38am
Quoting duyk20
Mingary, answer the question "Are you a failure?"

I'm eagerly waiting for your answer


I am choosing to say yes, I love being the devil's advocate so much.
  • #56
  • Aug 4, 2012 10:45am Aug 4, 2012 10:45am
Quoting Mingary
I am choosing to say yes, I love being the devil's advocate so much.
Ok, Mingary, no devil's advocate this time; and I'm going to ask you: "Are you a failure in trading?"
  • #57
  • Aug 4, 2012 10:53am Aug 4, 2012 10:53am
Quoting duyk20
Ok, Mingary, no devil's advocate this time; and I'm going to ask you: "Are you a failure in trading?"
I see. No, I can't say that I am now.
But I used to really suck at it.
  • #58
  • Aug 4, 2012 12:51pm Aug 4, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting Mingary
I see. No, I can't say that I am now.
But I used to really suck at it.
I understand. How much did you loose?
  • #59
  • Aug 4, 2012 1:04pm Aug 4, 2012 1:04pm
Quoting duyk20
I understand. How much did you loose?
"Lose" not "loose"
  • #60
  • Aug 4, 2012 1:10pm Aug 4, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting Mingary
"Lose" not "loose"
How much did you lose?
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