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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #35,441
  • Aug 2, 2012 10:47am Aug 2, 2012 10:47am
I want to thank fti for this very nice thread. I have enjoyed reading it and it has helped my trading immensley. Don't trade during news events, instead wait for the dead to fall and then pick on the carrion.

This morning after the craziness I put on an EU Scout short at 1.2183. That turned out to be a 15 min reversal that was heading back to re-test the previous days low. Not a good place for a sell, but I had more arrows that I could use. I waited a bit and put in a EU Medic short at 1.2208, to help out Scout. I waited a bit more and when price retraced to the 1.2200 big round number I put in an EU Attack2 short.

S1 Sell EU 1.2183
M1 Sell EU 1.2208, new basis 1.2195
A2 Sell EU 1.2201, new basis 1.2198

Anything under 1.2198 is now profitable.

Thanks for the great teachings fti.

Eric.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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" Be always employed in something useful." - Benjamin Franklin
  • #35,442
  • Aug 2, 2012 10:59am Aug 2, 2012 10:59am
Quoting cougar73
I want to thank fti for this very nice thread. I have enjoyed reading it and it has helped my trading immensley. Don't trade during news events, instead wait for the dead to fall and then pick on the carrion.

This morning after the craziness I put on an EU Scout short at 1.2183. That turned out to be a 15 min reversal that was heading back to re-test the previous days low. Not a good place for a sell, but I had more arrows that I could use. I waited a bit and put in a EU Medic short at 1.2208, to help out Scout. I waited a bit more and when...
No problem Eric, anything to help a fellow out.
Wow you survived the 124 attack.
big balls.


regards
  • #35,443
  • Edited 11:48am Aug 2, 2012 11:02am | Edited 11:48am
"Draghi Says ECB May Undertake Outright Open Market Operations"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...buy-bonds.html

with all due respect. sir.
this not how it works.
you gotta get the $$$.
come into market full armoured.
you see shadow you shoot first, check later.
then you tell the market.
hey fellows, we in the market, open market ops.
and you no go put yourself down need do this.
Your representing banks will tell the wires.

Ai ya.
And we all sit guessing , how much more of the $$$ is coming in.
so if we short scutter like saw a ghost.
Just ask BUba intervene for you.
They experts at scaring the daylights out of the markets.

Please no do all the may, stuff.
may means nothing.
Need see the salt.


regards

so guys, watch your sizes.
MAY have some open market ops at last.

All ask is Honour. Honour your words.
I buy the dang thingy support your warning.
But don't you disappoint me.
If you no show , then we no choice but to sell the crap out of our longs.

holiday withdrawn.
everyone back to the consoles.
warning is taken under advicement.
sell at your own risk.

Lets try early octoberfest.
Inserted Video
  • #35,444
  • Edited 1:21pm Aug 2, 2012 12:59pm | Edited 1:21pm
Quoting fti

(...) mostly i only sight the charts see what they making.
is very obvious mostly. Just watching prices already can be sighted.
(...) i try make myself blind keep watching bid offer prices (...)
Could you elaborate on the above, please? I've been scratching my head over this to no avail.

Best regards
  • #35,445
  • Aug 2, 2012 2:08pm Aug 2, 2012 2:08pm
Quoting Hong
Could you elaborate on the above, please? I've been scratching my head over this to no avail.

Best regards
what you want elaborated.
don't ask general questions and expect me read your mind.

if nothing said makes any sense to you , then please read the thread.

regards
  • #35,446
  • Aug 2, 2012 4:54pm Aug 2, 2012 4:54pm
Quoting fti
note that euro has gone outside day reversal.
the berishness need be stopped at its tracks attract massive selling.
no other majors had sustained outside day reversal yet.
so is resposibility of the said Cb arrest the situation before NY closing, to avoid attract the bears.
A definition I found. I post here just in case some people are not paying any attention.

Quoting http://www.profunds.com/professionals/procharts/popup/chartingglossary/reversaloutsidereversaldaytop.html
An Outside Reversal Day (top) is a two-period pattern that suggests a potential reversal or deceleration of the current trend. The relationship of the two periods has the follow characteristics:

 

  1. The high is higher than the previous day's high.
  2. The low is lower than the previous day's low.

The resulting pattern is a smaller bar or candlestick totally encompassed by a larger bar or candlestick. The significance of the Outside Reversal Day (top) depends of the current trend, prior price action, support, resistance and other aspects of technical analysis. An Outside Reversal Day (top) at resistance might be considered bearish, while an Outside Reversal Day (top) at support might be considered bullish. This basic definition of the Outside Reversal Day (top) does not take into consideration the relationship of the closing levels. Generally, the larger the range and higher the volume, the more significant is the pattern. Although the example provided uses daily data, this pattern can also be applied to intraday, weekly or monthly data.

Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #35,447
  • Aug 2, 2012 5:00pm Aug 2, 2012 5:00pm
Back from a long day at work.
I was at a 4 hours meeting with the big shots.
-I have to give a 2 hrs presentation when you guys have all the European fun.
At 10:00 I pulled my iphone... check oanda.
All hell breaking loose. PA almost at 1.24.
Oh well...meeting restarted.
Ended at lunch.
Check oanda.
All hell breaking loose..in the opossite direction.
I thought of my wife...
" do not worry, all that goes
up comes down. Sell the bitch."
Check oanda...
the herd was betting long.
Tonight must might be crying.
Me?
I am drinking wine.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #35,448
  • Aug 2, 2012 5:31pm Aug 2, 2012 5:31pm
Quoting fti
About interest rates.

zero interest rates is crazy.
no investor wants invest in anything that pays no interest or dividents.
if this continue long term , all investors may leave for greener pastures.
Need have some interest defray cost of funds and savings,.
slightly above infaltion rates may be a good catalyst for growth.
but moving rates slowly and read the data for optimum performance is paramont for effectiveness.
Zero interest rates will slowly send all investors to alternative avenues.

As CB must also acetain that productive sectors can...
Let see if I understand...
I have 1 milion dollar,
so to put that money in a bank,
I have to pay them!
I think I would prefer to buy some property,
a steel box, get some guards and keep an eye
on my own money!
I guess I am very stupid.
Something is really broken here.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #35,449
  • Edited 7:15pm Aug 2, 2012 5:32pm | Edited 7:15pm
Quoting fti

what you want elaborated.
don't ask general questions and expect me read your mind.

if nothing said makes any sense to you , [it makes all the sense in the world and that's why I've asked you to elaborate] then please read the thread [I'm currently in the process of reading it, but it's a slow endeavor - still only on page 119].

regards
OK, these are the points I wish you would elaborate on:

Quoting fti

(...) mostly i only sight the charts see what they [the market makers, I presume?] making.
is very obvious mostly [how is it obvious?]. Just watching prices already can be sighted [sorry, again, how?].
(...) i try make myself blind keep watching bid offer prices [what can prices alone tell you?] (...)
If you could answer these questions it would be of great help to me.

Best regards
  • #35,450
  • Aug 2, 2012 7:54pm Aug 2, 2012 7:54pm
The dark deepens around Knight Capital Group and its looking for a White Knight to come to the rescue

http://www.reuters.com/article/video...eoId=236825084

The dark deepens around Knight Capital Group and its looking for a White Knight to come to the rescue. The Wall Street firm is fighting for its life after losing $440 million due to a technology glitch on Wednesday; its stock plummeting in a two-day loss totaling 75 percent. As one of the top market makers, Knight is supposed to ensure an orderly market by stepping in to buy or sell stocks to keep the market moving - but that's not what happened. Baruch Professor Bernard Donefer gives his interpretation of the mishap. SOUNDBITE: BERNARD DONEFER, PROFESSOR, BARUCH COLLEGE/CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK (ENGLISH) SAYING: "The night before the event they made a change to their infrastructure in order to interface with the New York Stock Exchange, the new system the New York Stock Exchange was putting in and they wanted to do it early and be prepared. The problem apparently occurred in that infrastructure and not in the trading models themselves, which caused them to keep repeating the same trades over and over again." About 140 stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange were impacted, leaving Knight's credibility in shambles and its future in the dark. Some of its biggest customers are sending orders elsewhere, and the company is exploring "strategic and financing alternatives": that's code for putting itself up for sale or at worse bankruptcy. But Knight is not alone in paying the price. The chaos follows the May 2010 flash crash, and the more recent botching of the Facebook IPO, along with electronic exchange BATS; events which have eroded investor confidence. Bill Singer is a securities attorney at law firm Herskovits. SOUNDBITE: BILL SINGER, SECURITIES ATTORNEY, HERSKOVITS (ENGLISH) SAYING: "Explain to me how something like Knight could have occurred after we just went through three similar scenarios in the last two years. So we are not learning anything. We are not fixing anything and that's dangerous because at some point when you look into the abyss, the abyss looks back at you and one day Wall Street is going to blow up and we're not going to be able to put it back together." With computer-driven trading here to stay - analysts say Wall Street has to figure out quickly how to give the machines a more human touch. Conway Gittens, Reuters
  • #35,451
  • Edited 8:46pm Aug 2, 2012 8:15pm | Edited 8:46pm
Quoting Jaro
The dark deepens around Knight Capital Group and its looking for a White Knight to come to the rescue

http://www.reuters.com/article/video...eoId=236825084

The dark deepens around Knight Capital Group and its looking for a White Knight to come to the rescue. The Wall Street firm is fighting for its life after losing $440 million due to a technology glitch on Wednesday; its stock plummeting in a two-day loss totaling 75 percent. As one of the top market makers, Knight is supposed to ensure an orderly market...

Nothing can save a robot.
they stupid and has no brains.
They just algorithm and command codes( and,or, if).
When the algo hits a bug.
This is to be expected.

I say again.
Nothing can save a robot if it hits a bug.
As in the case here.
and they work in nano seconds.
Nothing can sell the bank or any corporation , faster than a computer can, if it hits a bug.
Remember all codes have undiscovered bugs.
I said before, for every bug debugged, they create 10x more bugs.
Best robots can do is to route orders and tickets, due to their speed and ability in repeatative abilities.
Trade, is not possible.they not have brain. And they also vulnerable to viruses.

White knight? I say just pull the dang plug from the wall socket.
that should save them for now.
Next step is to employ professional human dealers to market make and with appropriate trade limits and book loss parameters, monitored by human compliance.
also beware employing robotic humans. Already have many of these.


regards
  • #35,452
  • Aug 2, 2012 9:33pm Aug 2, 2012 9:33pm
Quoting fti
thanks, i perused.
you not understand my condition, is classed terminal.
70% or more of heart tissues are rock.
i can actually feel them.
sometime in my meditation i talk with them.
In fact my good colestrol is very high, My bad colestrol is middle of road. According to the pros. I ever did ask them then how is this possible. Their answer was probably stress levels and because I am MALE and seems i carrys the gene.

However thank you for additional education and i will seek more help in that direction.
I notice all the links in the articles and...
Regeneration of heart cells is possible, albeit age slows the process.....what was once thought that our hearts were growth stationary at late teens early 20ish now it seems that about 60% of the heart actually renews itself over our lifetimes..... the addition of the enzymes CoQ10, L-Carnitine, D-Ribose and the mineral magnesium has had remarkable results when added to traditional approaches. many were terminal, waiting heart transplants.......... this is chronicled in Stephen Sinatra's book Metabolic Cardiology, it deals with revitalizing the cells inside the heart muscle, actually awaking parts of the heart once thought as dead in many patients.

regards.
  • #35,453
  • Aug 2, 2012 11:20pm Aug 2, 2012 11:20pm
Quoting fti

Nothing can save a robot.
they stupid and has no brains.
They just algorithm and command codes( and,or, if).
When the algo hits a bug.
This is to be expected.

I say again.
Nothing can save a robot if it hits a bug.
As in the case here.
and they work in nano seconds.
Nothing can sell the bank or any corporation , faster than a computer can, if it hits a bug.
Remember all codes have undiscovered bugs.
I said before, for every bug debugged, they create 10x more bugs.
Best robots can do is to route orders and tickets,...
Being in IT for last 11 years i can tell...what max we can do is cover as much holes we can and not sure what that can open up...and still doing it now


V
  • #35,454
  • Aug 2, 2012 11:53pm Aug 2, 2012 11:53pm
Quoting fti
note that euro has gone outside day reversal.
...
Thanks for the heads up chief. I've learnt something new again and reminded of the fundamentals behind it from the recent post on interest rates and M&A.

Since you mentioned about market equilibrium, just want to clarify a question I've had since Uni when I asked my lecturer and he didn't want to answer it or didn't know the answer for it. I asked him: How are forex prices determined? And what models are the banks using?
- From what I gather through the forum so far through your unselfish sharing and wisdom is, current price is determined through the spot interbank where the dealers make the market. And money markets rely on the prices that interbanks provide for their transactions. So would that mean that TM and higher decide where the market should be at based on money markets, TMU and economists?(If I'm opening a can of worms you need not reply, just my high interest in the fx markets)


I'm almost done reading the entire forum, will probably be able to finish it by tomorrow. I've got most of my questions answered by reading from front to back.

Just want to thank you again for all that you have done. Wish I started earlier on this thread and be able to participate. I would have learnt even more.
  • #35,455
  • Aug 3, 2012 1:04am Aug 3, 2012 1:04am
Hi fti and Wallet
I concur with Wallet re CoQ10 enzyme :-)
CoQ10 helps the cells work better. 70% of CoQ10 in the body is in the heart as this is the muscle doing the most work.

Also with age CoQ10 reduces in body to something like 30% of earlier levels

Also I think you have to take higher levels, 100mg+ from memory, lower levels less effective.

You may have already been down this path fti but a little redundancy doesn't hurt, the robot computers could have done with some ;-)


Quoting wallet
Regeneration of heart cells is possible, albeit age slows the process.....what was once thought that our hearts were growth stationary at late teens early 20ish now it seems that about 60% of the heart actually renews itself over our lifetimes..... the addition of the enzymes CoQ10, L-Carnitine, D-Ribose and the mineral magnesium has had remarkable results when added to traditional approaches. many were terminal, waiting heart transplants.......... this is chronicled in Stephen Sinatra's book Metabolic Cardiology, it deals with revitalizing the...
  • #35,456
  • Edited 8:41am Aug 3, 2012 1:30am | Edited 8:41am
Quoting wallet
Regeneration of heart cells is possible, albeit age slows the process.....what was once thought that our hearts were growth stationary at late teens early 20ish now it seems that about 60% of the heart actually renews itself over our lifetimes..... the addition of the enzymes CoQ10, L-Carnitine, D-Ribose and the mineral magnesium has had remarkable results when added to traditional approaches. many were terminal, waiting heart transplants.......... this is chronicled in Stephen Sinatra's book Metabolic Cardiology, it deals with revitalizing the...
hi wallet,
thanks for the info.
Dr sinatra blogs are very interesting.
i will take time peruse all his writings.

thank you, sir.


regards
  • #35,457
  • Aug 3, 2012 4:58am Aug 3, 2012 4:58am
FTI;

What is vacuum spike pls?
  • #35,458
  • Aug 3, 2012 5:41am Aug 3, 2012 5:41am
Quoting doddy
FTI;

What is vacuum spike pls?
Vacuum: an enclosed space from which matter, especially air, has been partially removed so that the matter or gas remaining in the space exerts less pressure than the atmosphere ( opposed to plenum).

Spike: an abrupt increase or rise: a chart showing a spike of unusual activity in the stock market



Think in terms of folks putting SL orders at certain levels. What would dealers do? How would it show on the charts?

Hope you have read the entire forum you would definitely understand
  • #35,459
  • Aug 3, 2012 6:04am Aug 3, 2012 6:04am
OK TY.I bought Darkstar book to further understand it but would like FTI wisdom here.
  • #35,460
  • Aug 3, 2012 8:44am Aug 3, 2012 8:44am
Quoting peetee09
Hi fti and Wallet
I concur with Wallet re CoQ10 enzyme :-)
CoQ10 helps the cells work better. 70% of CoQ10 in the body is in the heart as this is the muscle doing the most work.

Also with age CoQ10 reduces in body to something like 30% of earlier levels

Also I think you have to take higher levels, 100mg+ from memory, lower levels less effective.

You may have already been down this path fti but a little redundancy doesn't hurt, the robot computers could have done with some ;-)
Hi peetee

thanks.
nowadays i not take any pills anymore.
not even vitamins.
I get all stuff only from natural foods.

regards
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