Well I botched that up. That's what I get for trying to think while women's beach volleyball is on.
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Random entries discussion... 7 replies
DislikedBut aren't you negating the force of all those by the fact that from the beginning you are randomizing your entry.
It may be true that you have a trend, but if you enter on a coin flip your odds are still 50/50 of entering the right way. Same with the other reasons I would think.
Let's say we have a pair that always goes one way 158 pips then reverses and goes the other way 50 pips. Let's say further that we know exactly when those swings start and finish. But if we flip a coin we're still going to lose half the time.Ignored
Dislikedhalf the time is 50Pips Loss/ half the time is 150pips profit.
To my understanding: TEB63 is randomizing the entry in a "none random market".
If approx. 200 pips are the average of a move in one direction than he could be profitable.
Not so sure how it works out in action: actually in such case one might try to open a trade long and one short of the same pair and just let them runIgnored
DislikedAlright had to register to comment on this atrocity to basic game theory. Just for a little background I'm brand new to forex and came over from online poker after the US DoJ got they're panties in a twist over online gambling. One of the things that really interested me in forex is how similar it is to zero sum games such as poker. Anyways on to the thread.
Let's establish some common ground first:
1. Forex trading ...Ignored
DislikedThat is not really correct. You do have trends in games and other random events.
Just try this "Random Chart Generator" : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...50#post4686250
Personally i have not tested the one in that link so i am not sure how well it works but i have tested a couple of others. If the one in the link do not work just Google and you will find others.
The result from generators like that are 100% random so it have absolutely nothing to do with any market but still you can not tell the difference. If you...Ignored
Dislikedand then you have the trend - maybe you have a "little" in cards I have no idea where it would come from but in FX it is a "big" trendIgnored
DislikedProbably. Personally i agree with you on this but a lot of really smart people that study this are not so sure. Anyway even if it is not random i will say it acts and looks like random.
Arctic4xIgnored
DislikedIf you move to day or week chart there is no random it move as it shouldIgnored
DislikedI would not agree
If you move to day or week chart there is no random it move as it should
It changes as new information comes. To those who do not understand this it may look random, but if you know the rules it is not.
My thoughtsIgnored
DislikedStill with me? let's make up some numbers to hammer this home. I'll even throw you a bone and give you favorable odds (at least according to the way you claim the system works). Let's say you have a 40% chance of hitting your Tp of 150pips before hitting your SL of -50pips. If we throw all this along with your random direction pick (ie 50/50) into an eq equation we get:
ev= (.4)(150)+(.6)(-50)=30pips, great we made money, except we left one major variable out... the buy sell choice which is a 50/50. If we add that in we get [b][color=red]ev= ((.4)(150)+(.6)(-50))+(-1(.4)(150)+(.6)(-50))=0...Ignored
Dislikedthis is "wrong" in common sense.
if what u said below is true, why not you focus trading daily/weekly chart? due to the spread cost taking less % in daily/weekly timeframe and your "non-random" reading of the chart, you should get incredibly rich right away.Ignored
Dislikedthe gist of donko's post is simply
EV = chance2up * (chance2win * 150 + chance2lose * -50) + chance2down * (chance2win * 150 + chance2lose * -50)
because you do coin-flip:
chance2up = 50%
chance2down = -50%
now if in bullish and bearish market, the chance2win and chance2lose stay same. how come EV is NOT zero?
it is ridiculous that many readers disregard the answer to this question/equation but saying crap like "randomizing" or "non-random"
simply say: if this EV equation is wrong, then TEB's system is promising, go on...Ignored
Dislikedthe issue for day charts you need very big stops and targets
so you need a lot of money to make a lot of moneyIgnored
DislikedI have heard this many times. Even my "mentor" from the past used to say this and he was (is) a pro trader for many many years. So you are not the only one saying this so i guess there have to be some truth in it.
Anyway for some reason i can not really see why it is like that.Ignored
Dislikedif they're totally random entries what are you hoping to learn...Ignored