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Nihilist trading

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 30, 2012 5:40am Jul 30, 2012 5:40am
hi ,

after 6 years of trading , and losing a lot of money with a lot of systems( self-made systems ) , i found so many weird truth from my experience, market is unpredictable, r/r is unmeasurable, and no system will work for more than 3 month and so on . . . , so what is the correct answer to be profitable ?

well , its not about your first position , because no matter what , its a wrong decision( based on the fact that market and the movement depth is unpredictable ), but its about what you do after your loss ( your profits doesnt matter because they were based on a wrong decision and combined with good luck ) .
think about this mystery and if you got anything in your mind please share , and then i will continue to explain more .
  • #2
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:52am Jul 30, 2012 5:52am
May I ask: how long did you stick to trading one and only one system?
  • #3
  • Jul 30, 2012 8:14am Jul 30, 2012 8:14am
for each system , i placed three to six month most of the time .
but its not about systems , its about market structure which is actively changing everyday . . .
  • #4
  • Jul 30, 2012 12:09pm Jul 30, 2012 12:09pm
do you still actively trade?
  • #5
  • Jul 30, 2012 2:18pm Jul 30, 2012 2:18pm
yes , right now im working on the nihilist system , which i created myself , and im in the second week of live test , after one month i will move to the main phase .
  • #6
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:04pm Jul 30, 2012 5:04pm
Have you ever heard of NLP(Neuro-linguistic-programming)?

These guys have a belief that says:
If you always do what you always did, you will always get what you always got.

I think you're trying to prove them wrong. Good luck.
Don't Fight Forces, Use Them.
  • #7
  • Jul 30, 2012 5:44pm Jul 30, 2012 5:44pm
Quoting deathgod_ir
after 6 years of trading , and losing a lot of money with a lot of systems( self-made systems ) , i found so many weird truth from my experience, market is unpredictable, r/r is unmeasurable, and no system will work for more than 3 month and so on . . . , so what is the correct answer to be profitable ?
From my experience, a self-designed automated system is one of the strongest options you have to become profitable. Did you automate your systems?

Probably not, because otherwise it would have been unlikely to lose money with them.

On the other hand, creating a good automated system is not easy.
But losing money with unproven systems is not a good option at all.

As you already found out, a few months of profitability do not mean much to most systems. If you want more stability, you should make sure to backtest at least a year of data and/or 100 to 200 trades. If you still like the results (look for a low drawdown) you could have found a system worth trying out.

I don't want to offend you, but if you lost money trying out so many of your own trading systems then you most likely made something wrong (e.g. backtest not long enough, too much leverage, a martingale approach?).

There are also some good books on trading system development, e.g. "Trading Systems that work" by Thomas Stridsman or "Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading" by Larry Williams. Both are very good books on trading systems which I can highly recommend.

You should read both books before trying out a new system.
That is certainly better than risking to lose money again.

Let me tell you this: I developed an automated strategy which looked very good in backtest and made me money from the first day - for more than three years now. If you develop your system carefully, it is unlikely you lose money with it.
  • #8
  • Jul 31, 2012 10:56am Jul 31, 2012 10:56am
Quoting deathgod_ir
hi ,

after 6 years of trading , and losing a lot of money with a lot of systems( self-made systems ) , i found so many weird truth from my experience, market is unpredictable, r/r is unmeasurable, and no system will work for more than 3 month and so on . . . , so what is the correct answer to be profitable ?

well , its not about your first position , because no matter what , its a wrong decision( based on the fact that market and the movement depth is unpredictable ), but its about what you do after your loss ( your profits doesnt matter...
you were just trading crappy systems. The market is not unpredictable - (I speak from experience).
Have you ever backtested any of the systems you traded? And not backtesting a couple of 100 trades. A real backtest goes back 1,000 to 100,000 trades, depending on the time-frame. You can never ever get to know a system's edge if you just trade it a couple of months. Any system will fail for a couple of months or even years before taking off again and making new grounds for your equity.
If the market really was totally unpredictable and random, then even "what you do after your loss" is totally irrelevant. It would still make you lose in the long-term.
I must say guys like you piss me off. You didn't even do the work required and already try to teach other people your crap. You don't even know what the hell you are talking about. Do your research. Backtest and forward test the crap out of your methods before explaining anybody your ideas.
Right now everything you say is based on your subjective experience and not on objective reality.
  • #9
  • Jul 31, 2012 3:56pm Jul 31, 2012 3:56pm
How do you program S/R in an automated system? Or do you simply ignore S/R and work with whatever else you can program?
  • #10
  • Aug 1, 2012 12:02am Aug 1, 2012 12:02am
i can say you judge too fast , at least let me response to your question , then get pissed off .

just during the last year , the volume of my backtests on just two system reached 39 MB ( JUST INCLUDING SEVERAL PICTURES AND EXCELL AND WORD FILES .) IM CONSIDERING YOU UNDERSTAND THAT WHAT IT MEANS.


Quoting Custos
you were just trading crappy systems. The market is not unpredictable - (I speak from experience).
Have you ever backtested any of the systems you traded? And not backtesting a couple of 100 trades. A real backtest goes back 1,000 to 100,000 trades, depending on the time-frame. You can never ever get to know a system's edge if you just trade it a couple of months. Any system will fail for a couple of months or even years before taking off again and making new grounds for your equity.
If the market really was totally unpredictable and random, then...
  • #11
  • Aug 1, 2012 12:08am Aug 1, 2012 12:08am
thanks for your kind suggestion , and i will try those books .
if by automated system you mean EA ,unfortunately i dont have the required skills to write EA with mql language.
and glad to hear that your system is that powerful to survive for three years.



Quoting TraderJF
From my experience, a self-designed automated system is one of the strongest options you have to become profitable. Did you automate your systems?

Probably not, because otherwise it would have been unlikely to lose money with them.

On the other hand, creating a good automated system is not easy.
But losing money with unproven systems is not a good option at all.

As you already found out, a few months of profitability do not mean much to most systems. If you want more stability, you should make sure to backtest at least a year of data and/or 100...
  • #12
  • Aug 1, 2012 12:16am Aug 1, 2012 12:16am
it is very true that no system will exits forever, other wise this market would have gone long back.

only standard things will work forever like r/s,tl thats it.
No place for mistakes
  • #13
  • Aug 1, 2012 1:08am Aug 1, 2012 1:08am
the secret is here :

the only thing that remain , is trends which happen always .

now by this unchangeable fact , how we are supposed to trade ?
because we dont know when , where , why trends start , and for how much time and how many pips and with what kind of structure it will continue .
  • #14
  • Aug 1, 2012 1:16am Aug 1, 2012 1:16am
Quoting deathgod_ir
the secret is here :

the only thing that remain , is trends which happen always .

now by this unchangeable fact , how we are supposed to trade ?
because we dont know when , where , why trends start , and for how much time and how many pips and with what kind of structure it will continue .
ta da

http://sprocketink.com/wp-content/up...11/07/tada.jpg
No place for mistakes
  • #15
  • Aug 1, 2012 1:17am Aug 1, 2012 1:17am
I would have never guess that
No place for mistakes
  • #16
  • Aug 1, 2012 1:22am Aug 1, 2012 1:22am
Quoting deathgod_ir
hi ,

after 6 years of trading , and losing a lot of money with a lot of systems( self-made systems ) , i found so many weird truth from my experience, market is unpredictable, r/r is unmeasurable, and no system will work for more than 3 month and so on . . . , so what is the correct answer to be profitable ?

well , its not about your first position , because no matter what , its a wrong decision( based on the fact that market and the movement depth is unpredictable ), but its about what you do after your loss ( your profits doesnt matter because...

dont waste your money and time building failing system one after another

you said there is no working system so dont stick yourself to certain system

just trade when you find a good opportunity following the trend waiting for a breakout scalping etc...

the market is flexible so be flexible too
  • #17
  • Aug 1, 2012 1:30am Aug 1, 2012 1:30am
when i said secret , i didnt mean that no one knows it , but i did mean in order to develop the correct strategy the secret is that .
( maybe i said it a little bit too flashy ^_^ )
  • #18
  • Aug 1, 2012 4:41am Aug 1, 2012 4:41am
Quoting Custos
you were just trading crappy systems. The market is not unpredictable - (I speak from experience).
Have you ever backtested any of the systems you traded? And not backtesting a couple of 100 trades. A real backtest goes back 1,000 to 100,000 trades, depending on the time-frame. You can never ever get to know a system's edge if you just trade it a couple of months. Any system will fail for a couple of months or even years before taking off again and making new grounds for your equity.
If the market really was totally unpredictable and random, then...
totally agree with custos on this one. most probably the failed one has had no edge in the first place to begin with. how exactly are you supposed to make profits live when you don't have anything working in backtest? with aproaches like this there is no wonder that the 90% statistics are what they are.
  • #19
  • Aug 1, 2012 5:00am Aug 1, 2012 5:00am
Quoting deathgod_ir
when i said secret , i didnt mean that no one knows it , but i did mean in order to develop the correct strategy the secret is that .
( maybe i said it a little bit too flashy ^_^ )
Not entirely sure what are you trying to do.

Are you planning to sell a system?
Are you looking for glory because you finally found your holy grail?
Why are you asking unrelated questions to people of this forum?
Why do you want to keep your method a secret?
So if nobody says anything, will you keep your secret to yourself?
What if I told you nobody cares what your secret is?

If you want to share something, just share it. No point going in riddles. Your weak attempt at garnering "brownie points" from this place is not going to work. If you have something genuine to post you would have done it already.
  • #20
  • Aug 6, 2012 4:33am Aug 6, 2012 4:33am
well , i just wanted to share an idea , not a system , and im not a sale person .
im just someone like you guys .
well i think its better to close this topic than to continue arguing my intentions .
thanks for all of your responses .


Quoting thelws
Not entirely sure what are you trying to do.

Are you planning to sell a system?
Are you looking for glory because you finally found your holy grail?
Why are you asking unrelated questions to people of this forum?
Why do you want to keep your method a secret?
So if nobody says anything, will you keep your secret to yourself?
What if I told you nobody cares what your secret is?

If you want to share something, just share it. No point going in riddles. Your weak attempt at garnering "brownie points" from this place is not going to work. If you have...
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