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Silent Service Method

  • #14,281
  • Jul 28, 2012 6:02am Jul 28, 2012 6:02am
  •  Atom
  • | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: An atom..no more..probably less! | 44 Posts
Hey Chris, what do you think? contemplating going long 1590-1600 and targeting 1720....Triangle break!

Thanks
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  • #14,282
  • Jul 28, 2012 7:54am Jul 28, 2012 7:54am
Quoting Atom
Hey Chris, what do you think? contemplating going long 1590-1600 and targeting 1720....Triangle break!

Thanks
This trade actually has two possible entries: either the triangle break that you are talking about, or waiting until a break above the 1640 level as well. Either way, this market is a buy, and not a sell long run.
  • #14,283
  • Jul 28, 2012 12:22pm Jul 28, 2012 12:22pm
Quoting clockwork71
This trade actually has two possible entries: either the triangle break that you are talking about, or waiting until a break above the 1640 level as well. Either way, this market is a buy, and not a sell long run.
Totally agree but the reason I prefer silver is the potential.

Previous gold high was 1900 silver was 50.

So if they both regain their highs silver will almost double from here whereas gold will 'only' be up abt 20%.
  • #14,284
  • Jul 29, 2012 7:05am Jul 29, 2012 7:05am
Quoting stewrigh
Totally agree but the reason I prefer silver is the potential.

Previous gold high was 1900 silver was 50.

So if they both regain their highs silver will almost double from here whereas gold will 'only' be up abt 20%.
This is true.....but one thing has me a bit leery about silver in general: the industrial demand part of the equation. Silver is a very widely used industrial metal, and industry - therefore demand - is very quiet at the moment.
  • #14,285
  • Jul 29, 2012 7:31am Jul 29, 2012 7:31am
I read somewhere about the ratio between gold and silver being a useful tool? It looks like silver is undervalued in relation to gold at the moment. Would anyone consider this a hedging opportunity? Sell gold and buy silver?

Also is there a clue to the future direction of futures by looking at whether the prices are in backwardation or in contango? I don't trade futures at all, the metals and indicies I trade are all on cfd's or some form of rolling future.
  • #14,286
  • Jul 29, 2012 9:25am Jul 29, 2012 9:25am
Quoting Hugh Briss
I read somewhere about the ratio between gold and silver being a useful tool? It looks like silver is undervalued in relation to gold at the moment. Would anyone consider this a hedging opportunity? Sell gold and buy silver?

Also is there a clue to the future direction of futures by looking at whether the prices are in backwardation or in contango? I don't trade futures at all, the metals and indicies I trade are all on cfd's or some form of rolling future.
Think I read the same report - the long term average is abt 20-1.

It's currently 58-1.

Not sure I'd want to sell gold tho.
  • #14,287
  • Jul 29, 2012 2:49pm Jul 29, 2012 2:49pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
I read somewhere about the ratio between gold and silver being a useful tool? It looks like silver is undervalued in relation to gold at the moment. Would anyone consider this a hedging opportunity? Sell gold and buy silver?

Also is there a clue to the future direction of futures by looking at whether the prices are in backwardation or in contango? I don't trade futures at all, the metals and indicies I trade are all on cfd's or some form of rolling future.
This takes a lot of thought.....so........

I don't look at any of this. To be honest, there is supposedly a way you can look at backwardation, contango, etc......but I am not real sure how futures traders deal with it to be honest.
  • #14,288
  • Jul 29, 2012 3:29pm Jul 29, 2012 3:29pm
Quoting stewrigh
Think I read the same report - the long term average is abt 20-1.

It's currently 58-1.

Not sure I'd want to sell gold tho.
But if you were hedged with silver?
  • #14,289
  • Jul 29, 2012 3:33pm Jul 29, 2012 3:33pm
Quoting clockwork71
This takes a lot of thought.....so........

I don't look at any of this. To be honest, there is supposedly a way you can look at backwardation, contango, etc......but I am not real sure how futures traders deal with it to be honest.
Yep, sounds like it's too confusing for the average joe to use and so probably not a high probability play. It does make sense though doesn't it? The future price is expected to be lower so sell it... ?
  • #14,290
  • Jul 29, 2012 6:29pm Jul 29, 2012 6:29pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Yep, sounds like it's too confusing for the average joe to use and so probably not a high probability play. It does make sense though doesn't it? The future price is expected to be lower so sell it... ?
I believe that is the skinny, yes.
  • #14,291
  • Jul 30, 2012 12:01am Jul 30, 2012 12:01am
Quoting Hugh Briss
But if you were hedged with silver?
Trouble is that would only be worth doing if silver went up and gold fell.

Gold and silver are almost 100% correlated - so if gold goes up it normally drags silver along too and vice versa.
  • #14,292
  • Jul 30, 2012 8:38pm Jul 30, 2012 8:38pm
Quoting stewrigh
Trouble is that would only be worth doing if silver went up and gold fell.

Gold and silver are almost 100% correlated - so if gold goes up it normally drags silver along too and vice versa.
Right. The one caveat is that there is a much more important industrial component to silver than gold, so this is why the silver markets can under perform from time to time. If it is based upon fear and a crappy global economy, then silver won't advance like gold will....
  • #14,293
  • Jul 30, 2012 8:41pm Jul 30, 2012 8:41pm
I see the EUR/USD sell order triggered. I am not surprised that we didn't get a nice flush down though. With the ECB and the Non-Farm numbers later this week, we could see a real non-committal type of market this week.
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  • #14,294
  • Jul 31, 2012 12:39am Jul 31, 2012 12:39am
Quoting stewrigh
Trouble is that would only be worth doing if silver went up and gold fell.

Gold and silver are almost 100% correlated - so if gold goes up it normally drags silver along too and vice versa.
Yes but sooner or later that ratio should come back into line?
  • #14,295
  • Jul 31, 2012 8:51am Jul 31, 2012 8:51am
Quoting Hugh Briss
Yes but sooner or later that ratio should come back into line?

Over time, yes it will. But this also assumes a "normal" market as well. Statistically speaking though, it should happen.
  • #14,296
  • Jul 31, 2012 10:16am Jul 31, 2012 10:16am
I see the "risk on" trade is coming back. Traders waiting for the next handout by the Fed and ECB.

All I can say is WOW!

These markets are very dysfunctional.

We live in a time when bad news is good news.....
  • #14,297
  • Edited 12:35pm Jul 31, 2012 10:17am | Edited 12:35pm
Quoting clockwork71
I see the "risk on" trade is coming back. Traders waiting for the next handout by the Fed and ECB.

All I can say is WOW!

These markets are very dysfunctional.

We live in a time when bad news is good news.....
Yep. I just wish they would make up their fracking minds already. I haven't gotten a single solid trade in this week yet. It's these environments that really make me hate being a swing trader.

Edit: I am currently watching 2224 to the bottom && 2389 to the top on the H4 to see if we can get a direction out of her. We've got something on the H4 that kind of looks like a H&S. We have the potential to reverse the daily for a nice little retrace, but nothing has broken yet. The pressure, does feel like its to the topside though... whatever that means.
  • #14,298
  • Jul 31, 2012 1:28pm Jul 31, 2012 1:28pm
I thought I'd share some personally acquired inside info about Greece

Just came back today after a week in Greece with my friends of who two are Greeks, one dentist and one doctor (who works in Germany...)

Anyway, I've asked my dentist friend several times over the last years if he's not thinking about coming back to Sweden, but his answer has been every time that things are going well for him. He's a very good dentist with a Swedish degree so he does better than most, but this last week he said that he now believes that Greece will switch to Drachmas this fall and he's planning to leave the country if that happens.

Just some sentiment from one who probably has a better feel for things than any of us. I trust him fully and I share his belief that Greece is headed out of the eurozone within 6-12 months if not sooner.
  • #14,299
  • Aug 1, 2012 1:28am Aug 1, 2012 1:28am
Quoting o990l6mh
I thought I'd share some personally acquired inside info about Greece

Just came back today after a week in Greece with my friends of who two are Greeks, one dentist and one doctor (who works in Germany...)

Anyway, I've asked my dentist friend several times over the last years if he's not thinking about coming back to Sweden, but his answer has been every time that things are going well for him. He's a very good dentist with a Swedish degree so he does better than most, but this last week he said that he now believes that Greece will switch...
John Maulden has done really good work on this over the last two years. In a nutshell, the money that Greece owns simply can never be repaid. I agree, they are gone.
  • #14,300
  • Aug 1, 2012 4:58pm Aug 1, 2012 4:58pm
Quoting Venice
Yep. I just wish they would make up their fracking minds already. I haven't gotten a single solid trade in this week yet. It's these environments that really make me hate being a swing trader.

Edit: I am currently watching 2224 to the bottom && 2389 to the top on the H4 to see if we can get a direction out of her. We've got something on the H4 that kind of looks like a H&S. We have the potential to reverse the daily for a nice little retrace, but nothing has broken yet. The pressure, does feel like its to the topside though... whatever...
Seriously? The bar closed @ 22254. This market just loves fecking with me...

Anyone know what came out of the FOMC meeting today? BLah blah blah... world collapsing, risk on? lol...
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