CPI and Core CPI

Pro's....

So best way to play tomorrows release of CPI numbers??

This can be key to go long again....I dont think any pull back is anytime soon...

thanks all

if CPI is low, sell dollars!!!

if PPI today was any indication, CPI will be low. i have my fingers crossed! (note to newbies, you know your in trouble when you start crossing your fingers: )

btw, i thought we were going to see a huge dollar slide after that PPI number today, but did you see the reaction after the capacity utilization came out? the way the market acted told me that capacity is a major influence right now. bernanke said this in one of the fed statements as well. also that produciton number was red hot. i have been leaning to a dollar negative sentiment lately (ie the fed will hold rates at 5%, at least one meeting with a pause), but this production report really gets me thinking. is the economy too hot right now? but its only one report, the fed would need to see confirmation from the other reports this month.

this is the best case for the dollar bulls out there....

but surely that capacity util is just one good report amongst other more important ones like PPI and CPI (we shall see tommorow) and housing numbers(hugely low again)..I mean Feds job is quite tricky right now as they r running out of positive things....i reckon CPI will come low from expectations and then if we have a low retails sales too...dolar will continue its way down as Fed will be forced to pause for now ....

anyway all is speculative for now , so untill we hear these words from Mr Bernanke himself I am keeping my focus on the data and also Eurozone CPI tommorow....

yeah i agree, thats why im a bear! i am trying to see the other side though

Just be careful of how much this has been already priced into the market, for me the market is going to react much more to any dollar positive news than negative.

The EU CPI was a dud. Hope the US market reacts more.

Well, one more note.....the higher the range, the more nervous traders become to buy in. This is why the major pysch levels are so hard to breach. Nobody wants to be the first in the pool just in case it's too cold to swim!

We had a nice run up this morning which gives more reason for upside rejection if the dollar news comes in good. 1.29 and 1.90 are high levels when given where we were just a month ago.

God!, trading is so cool!

very good point. and a good trading lesson.

Well that figures........no real direction,

No moves at all......


sheeeeshhhhh

i was one of those that helped push usd up in warp speed and probably one of many that got spiked out today ... oh well

It is "demo" so, but I am trying out the stuff from this thread:
http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...4&page=7&pp=15

Right now the GBP is neatly packed in a range, just as was predicted by the smart people of that thread

PS: I am not advising anything okay! Just, at the moment I wrote my reply GBPUSD was ranging 1.8962 to 1.8976. It had broken down now, and trying to "jump the wagon" might be a bad idea.. I don't know. Just don't base anything on the reply i made.

What are possible reasons why the price spiked the wrong way today after CPI data suggesting stronger USD now and in the future?

Doh!!!

Looks like I was wrong. It took some time for the market, but man did it drop!!!

So Merlin, any ideas as to what the catylist was for the strength in the USD??

thanks

Magic Man!!!

So what do you think was the catalyst for the new trend down?

BOJ not raising interest rates??

thanks dude

well in my opinion the sudden strenght in the dolar is some relief and correction due to comments from certain members of ECB , sue to strong CPI numbers and ofcourse profit taking that has been done over the last few days....

clearly the last 2 days have been mad!!! with choppy trading with no direction whatsoever....i reckon bit range trading for now, maybe some more strength in dollar BUT beware!!! do NOT be fooled!! i dont see this move THAT strong to create trend reversal.... still euro is strong and will remain strong and will try again high levels of 1.30 that couldnt break before...i mean there is a lot of risk at the moment still with oil prices, still with Iran situation and still with coming hurricane season.....bigger range for summer 1.25-1.30??? maybe.....

as for USD/JPY , this pair has proved this last week that it is driven purely by who says what....and by who i mean Mr Tanigaki and his gang.... so for now as there is not interest rate hike in the near future...and with BOJ not wanting that string of a yen , will continue its ups and downs till the next comment....


the question i have now is : Is Fed going to PAUSE the PAUSE?

Bernake said that stopping/continueing the rate hikes would depend entirely upon upcomming fundamental data. CPI was above expected, which is another tick to the "keep rising rates" list, and thus dollar-bullish.

I have said it before and I repeat it: rates, and those announcements that might affect the rates, are the main factor to drive the currencies.

All I know is the Japanese exporters are selling the dickens out of the Yen at the moment, so I wouldn't get too confident about any long dollar positons. These guys are strong hands and have the best forward looking data on the planet.

Wait a minute...

If they are selling the dickens out of the YEN, then they are going long the dollar???

Or am I just smoking something, hehe

thanks dude