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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #35,301
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:05pm Jul 26, 2012 10:05pm
i have a question about trading plan. let's take eu as an example. in my case, i am planning to stay bearish below 1.2340, because this is serious supply zone. above that point may consider scalping long.
factors i am relying on are basically PA, demand and supply, and correlated pairs behavior.
how do you make your war plan? what is the logic behind it, what factors do you rely on?
reading this thread i came to conclusion that you only have to follow the price, be flexible, be like water, there is nothing else you need to get into a trade, just dance to the rhythm of the music. the most important thing is the feeling.
did i quote correct or missing something?
As Above, So Below
  • #35,302
  • Edited 11:09pm Jul 26, 2012 10:41pm | Edited 11:09pm
Quoting tashkent
i have a question about trading plan. let's take eu as an example. in my case, i am planning to stay bearish below 1.2340, because this is serious supply zone. above that point may consider scalping long.
factors i am relying on are basically PA, demand and supply, and correlated pairs behavior.
how do you make your war plan? what is the logic behind it, what factors do you rely on?
reading this thread i came to conclusion that you only have to follow the price, be flexible, be like water, there is nothing else you need to get into a trade,...
no, there's alot more to it than that.Try read and understand the thread.
1 very big difference between you and me is iam not so rigid as you. and i have more trading experiences.
you talk PA, dd/ss, but to you is not much meaning.
whats the PA saying now? Whats the dd/ss equilibrium?
how does it qualify your statement
"i am planning to stay bearish below 1.2340"
what supply are you talking about?
its all in your head.
I not know such things even when i seeing giant order book.
You seem just afraid of heights.
ask any child where its going.
but when i read the comments mostly, i feel peeps getting very bias, and sturborn only.
If you want compare bias, i even more bearish than any of you, but not now. Now i need trade the flow, when its time get bearish , i will know.
I not engineers like some of you. I am trader. and i not have crystal balls or hangups.
i flow with markets whereever they want to go.I am marked to markets.
To me markets are always at equilibrium at exactly where she is.

is ok, I not really sound intelligent too.

regards

for what its worth, i am already long, in cable and aud and had booked some profits in aud.

Inserted Video
  • #35,303
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:29pm Jul 26, 2012 11:29pm
Quoting fti
no, there's alot more to it than that.Try read and understand the thread.
1 very big difference between you and me is iam not so rigid as you. and i have more trading experiences.
you talk PA, dd/ss, but to you is not much meaning.
whats the PA saying now? Whats the dd/ss equilibrium?
how does it qualify your statement
"i am planning to stay bearish below 1.2340"
what supply are you talking about?
its all in your head.
I not know such things even when i seeing giant order book.
You seem just afraid of heights.
but when i read the comments...
i have very little experience in this business, that is why trying to understand it.
maybe i did not put my question correct, not sure. the matter of flow is understood, big money in, change of direction for some time. but this is not convincing, big move, ok, i can see that, so what that means? is it legitimate move, why did it happen, anything changed? is eurozone going to prosper from now on? did fundies change, figs change? what happened? what is going on behind the curtain? i have no answer. but how logical is it to follow that move? what if it was just a part of a game, to create a mirage, and then hit it so bad. now definitely many will go long, follow this big move, as it happened at the end of june, and we know how it ended.
PA is saying that things changed, it is saying that shorting is dangerous, it is saying that there is very strong guy behind the scene, and do not go against him. 1.2340 is where big money was placed several times, where it slapped bulls on their face and sent where they came from. so i am keeping an eye on it, if this 90 guy is that strong he will break the zone, and we will see his real strength and devotion. then it will be easy to decide what to do. S&D equilibrium is between 1.22 and 1.23
i do not think thinking this way makes me rigid, because i am not. otherwise would not close my shorts just before the tsunami and reverse the trade. but now i am reversing it again and looking at this big move with suspicion. as soon as i see convincing upside moves i will look forward to buy. but not right now. now i will wait the dust to settle, see what majority will decide with clear mind after some rest.
As Above, So Below
  • #35,304
  • Edited 1:20am Jul 27, 2012 12:42am | Edited 1:20am
Quoting tashkent
i have very little experience in this business, that is why trying to understand it.
maybe i did not put my question correct, not sure. the matter of flow is understood, big money in, change of direction for some time. but this is not convincing, big move, ok, i can see that, so what that means? is it legitimate move, why did it happen, anything changed? is eurozone going to prosper from now on? did fundies change, figs change? what happened? what is going on behind the curtain? i have no answer. but how logical is it to follow that move? what...
ai ya so many questions , why why why.
let me consult crystal balls.
maybe ask God may know.

ok you wait while i pocket my long position pips.
please no tell me anymore opinions, i prefer listen to market.
1.22 and 1.23
ok noted
you wait buy 1.22 and sell 1.23 , maybe later.
now i just took pips here.

maybe you buy 1.22 , what if it cracks?
what if we cannot trade 1.23
trades 1.2298?
but if you need i can sell you some at 1.2330 if you want buy.
breaks top but i need take profits, so is ok.
i not care about any lines, just want make pips.

Since you know what markets gonna do , we sell the house, buy the low sell the high, and go pub drink ourselves silly.

Did you read about the guy , afraid die of colestrol,
no eat eggs nor drink milk.
he was killed by a truck.
A DIARY truck.



there was a maidan , she wanted marry mr right.
so she decided wait.
that was in 1940s .
ya she still waiting.
oops i forgot, buried her in may 1995
ai ya my memory bad
she waited since january 1953

regards

Inserted Video
  • #35,305
  • Jul 27, 2012 1:27am Jul 27, 2012 1:27am
Quoting fti
ai ya so many questions , why why why.
let me consult crystal balls.
maybe ask God may know.

ok you wait while i pocket my long position pips.
please no tell me anymore opinions, i prefer listen to market.
1.22 and 1.23
ok noted
you wait buy 1.22 and sell 1.23 , maybe later.
now i just took pips here.

maybe you buy 1.22 , what if it cracks?
what if we cannot trade 1.23
trades 1.2298?
but if you need i can sell you some at 1.2330 if you want buy.
breaks top but i need take profits, so is ok.
i not care about any lines, just want make...
Sir, i know very well where you stand in this business and where i do. i understand how silly may sound what i wrote. i am learning, doing my best, learning includes not only studying and following but asking questions too. from your answer i understood that i am in the wrong track, if i am i accept, nobody is never right %100.
the numbers i quoted are not fixed, they change. but these points where i will keep an eye on. if up move stalls at 1.2340 i will sell, the same for 1.22 - i will buy. but this is not definite, it is just a plan, because i can not blindly follow the trend, for that i need reason. i have no crystal ball, what i am trying to do is just understand the moves, get the overall picture.
As Above, So Below
  • #35,306
  • Edited 2:00am Jul 27, 2012 1:31am | Edited 2:00am
Quoting tashkent
Sir, i know very well where you stand in this business and where i do. i understand how silly may sound what i wrote. i am learning, doing my best, learning includes not only studying and following but asking questions too. from your answer i understood that i am in the wrong track, if i am i accept, nobody is never right %100.
the numbers i quoted are not fixed, they change. but these points where i will keep an eye on. if up move stalls at 1.2340 i will sell, the same for 1.22 - i will buy. but this is not definite, it is just a plan, because...
no harm.
was just oppotunity for me highlight some stuff.
absolutely nothing personal.
just mindset.

yes, like you said they just plans.
but they have impact on your decision process.

regards

ai ya i took too early.
ai ya...
now i planning sell 15715? buy 15750?
maybe i just clear my mind first. But i much prefer buy 15715 and sell 15750.
gets some pocket money.

my friend.
Plaese no get mind in a knot. I not mean to put you down.
Just trying hightlight stuff to you.
In the world everything is wrong and everything is right. depends on perspective. I just try not be evil to others only.
thats not important.
getting pips is.

ai ya now i try sell 90 buy 70.
  • #35,307
  • Jul 27, 2012 2:06am Jul 27, 2012 2:06am
oops

Spain Q2 unemployment 24.63%

now i going sell 1.2290 may be i'll buy back 1.15?

regards

bonus
got 1.2293

1.15? maybe i need eat more big head vege.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/in...9134210AAOrXgN
  • #35,308
  • Jul 27, 2012 2:11am Jul 27, 2012 2:11am
Quoting fti
oops

Spain Q2 unemployment 24.63%

now i going sell 1.2290 may be i'll buy back 1.15?

regards

bonus
got 1.2293

1.15? maybe i need eat more big head vege.
LOL

Major trend kicking back in?
  • #35,309
  • Jul 27, 2012 2:13am Jul 27, 2012 2:13am
Quoting fti
no harm.
was just oppotunity for me highlight some stuff.
absolutely nothing personal.
just mindset.

yes, like you said they just plans.
but they have impact on your decision process.

regards

ai ya i took too early.
ai ya...
now i planning sell 15715? buy 15750?
maybe i just clear my mind first.

my friend.
Plaese no get mind in a knot. I not mean to put you down.
Just trying hightlight stuff to you.
In the world everything is wrong and everything is right. I just try not be evil to others only.
thats not important.
getting pips is....
no problem. probably my comments were just silly. we do not know each other personally so no point of taking anything personal. i know you are trying to help people here. as one wise man said 'i am ready to become a servant of anyone for 40 years for teaching me a letter'. you are giving your knowledge for free, i really appreciate that and not in a position of getting upset even if you tried to put me down.
As Above, So Below
  • #35,310
  • Jul 27, 2012 2:19am Jul 27, 2012 2:19am
Quoting tashkent
no problem. probably my comments were just silly. we do not know each other personally so no point of taking anything personal. i know you are trying to help people here. as one wise man said 'i am ready to become a servant of anyone for 40 years for teaching me a letter'. you are giving your knowledge for free, i really appreciate that and not in a position of getting upset even if you tried to put me down.


ok now my cost factor in the cable pips is round about 12360+ euro
they can try take me out.
But thats the name of the game.

regards
  • #35,311
  • Jul 27, 2012 2:27am Jul 27, 2012 2:27am
now cost is about 20+

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  • #35,312
  • Jul 27, 2012 2:42am Jul 27, 2012 2:42am
squared

i not like the feel
maybe higher.
above 90 would be more comfortable
  • #35,313
  • Jul 27, 2012 3:15am Jul 27, 2012 3:15am
Olympic paterns ahead... range? Rgds
  • #35,314
  • Edited 3:49am Jul 27, 2012 3:30am | Edited 3:49am
ok aud short 19 cable short 83

still trying euro

ok euro short 70

come la to 90

ok added 75

euro L5 short
L7 short

euro short L10, cable L3 aud L3
  • #35,315
  • Jul 27, 2012 3:42am Jul 27, 2012 3:42am
Quoting fti
ok aud short 19 cable short 83

still trying euro

ok euro short 70

come la to 90

ok added 75

euro L5 short
L7 short
all eggs in one basket?
As Above, So Below
  • #35,316
  • Jul 27, 2012 3:53am Jul 27, 2012 3:53am
ok all squared
tired
i ll rest until ny comes in

regards
  • #35,317
  • Jul 27, 2012 4:06am Jul 27, 2012 4:06am
Quoting Sampio
I thought -> Assumptions
As fti said: ASSUME = ASS of U and ME
haha, I must have missed this memorable quote.
  • #35,318
  • Jul 27, 2012 4:49am Jul 27, 2012 4:49am
Guys finished with undergraduate studies, now tougher life will begin, goin for masters lol
  • #35,319
  • Jul 27, 2012 4:53am Jul 27, 2012 4:53am
euro is wanting to rally again today...
really wants to rally ...maybe another 100 pips we will see.
  • #35,320
  • Jul 27, 2012 5:05am Jul 27, 2012 5:05am
Looks like the ECB and the Bundesbank are having an arguement about policy. My E/$ short got taken out with no profit after being up about 20, so will now sit on the sidelines until these two work out a solution to their problems. Moving my focus to the GBP and AUD. Take care and trade well!
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