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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #35,281
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:14am Jul 26, 2012 11:14am
Quoting eblip
yes thank you for key feedback fti.
i will re read.

as today i thought sweep was taking place for sitting ducks ...and then i thought sweep going too far... and powerful and strong... but maybe downtrend still intact.

then i thought oh too late this is maybe up trend ....but probably short term...i will rescue on retrace...
then i thought too powerful ....just cut losses and run...as i am on the wrong side of a move that is powerful and seems to never ever stop...so im pulling plug...


in hidsight...after sweep for stops force upwards...
cutting on changing trend is not a pig.
if you went long and it retraced then thats when you shuld feel like a pig.
already told you peeps, you can change your mind, but not for 3rd time thats all.

anyway you think too much without nimblemess.
its so hard clear mind and allow to flow.
In fast markets you think, and you dead in waters.
in slow markets then is ok think all you like.

in firefight , you keep head low and move fast.
when on recon then you think.



regards
  • #35,282
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:15am Jul 26, 2012 11:15am
Quoting fti
trend changed, ok, and you know that it will run from a changed position?
You like chase things that are late?

regards
Ok i think i see....


So we should not attack into a shooting rocket.....?

I only ask because it is something i have been doing, When move is so strong and fast in a direction i jump on hard, then very very very quickly start to scale out, to rapidly reduce the exposure and risk and begin banking foreign capital..

But I can see the danger in that if wrong.

If move changes suddenly which i guess in those situations when market is not flowing is very possible to rapidly change or run out of steam could get into a lot of trouble with high exposure.

If this is something bad I have been dong i will look to change it.... Perhaps is unnecessary risk? more akin to gambling...??

The only control of risk is the rapid scaling out....
  • #35,283
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:20am Jul 26, 2012 11:20am
Quoting eblip
yes thank you for key feedback fti.
i will re read.

as today i thought sweep was taking place for sitting ducks ...and then i thought sweep going too far... and powerful and strong... but maybe downtrend still intact.

then i thought oh too late this is maybe up trend ....but probably short term...i will rescue on retrace...
then i thought too powerful ....just cut losses and run...as i am on the wrong side of a move that is powerful and seems to never ever stop...so im pulling plug...


in hidsight...after sweep for stops force upwards...
I think you should really re-read.

Markets don't know what exactly you are thinking.. They may guess and set traps for you. Rather you should know these traps and what the market is thinking.

Conflicting emotions - due to your bias. BE nimble my friend.

I thought -> Assumptions
As fti said: ASSUME = ASS of U and ME
  • #35,284
  • Edited 11:36am Jul 26, 2012 11:21am | Edited 11:36am
Quoting Acs_112
Ok i think i see....


So we should not attack into a shooting rocket.....?

I only ask because it is something i have been doing, When move is so strong and fast in a direction i jump on hard, then very very very quickly start to scale out, to rapidly reduce the exposure and risk and begin banking foreign capital..

But I can see the danger in that if wrong.

If move changes suddenly which i guess in those situations when market is not flowing is very possible to rapidly change or run out of steam could get into a lot of trouble with...
ok think, try guess how i managed get the pips form cable defray the euro loss?
i not said is wrong.
i asked if you have the capacity dance it.

my cable was 10x+ times larger than the euro, ok?
the only reason why the profit was not 30x+ times was because this rush came not in tendem with my perceptions.(bias)

for this case today, even those late could had made a killing.
but is not prudent protocol only.
because is not like this all the time.

any way when 12150 was breached, it was a gap test zone.
I was already quiet ready with pulling the trriger already.
any way i was also abit slow, but the cable sat there frozen so i pump them to smitterines.
Had the aud not run away like it did , they would had been pumped to bits as well.


regards
  • #35,285
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:25am Jul 26, 2012 11:25am
Quoting fti
ok think, try guess how i managed get the pips form cable defray the euro loss?
i not said is wrong.
i asked if you have the capacity dance it.


regards
Ok yeah i see,,,

is same thing your move on the cable..,.. is what i was thinking.

"is not prudent protocol"

I get you here this is what i was wondering about..... thanks
  • #35,286
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:44am Jul 26, 2012 11:44am
ok now euro is lingering.
lets see what they do at the 12230/60 time windows.

will be a long long night.
i need focus now, sorry.
  • #35,287
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:49am Jul 26, 2012 11:49am
What a crazy day?
I am not aware of anything happening
But somebody without cash saying
"do not worry. I will save the euro."
I am definitively a fool.
We will see.
Congratulation to the flipper!
But watch out...
...still the mayor trend is south.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #35,288
  • Jul 26, 2012 12:00pm Jul 26, 2012 12:00pm
luckily i had video camera switched on ...
caught footage of fti going to get 90 guy..earlier on.

Inserted Video
  • #35,289
  • Jul 26, 2012 2:10pm Jul 26, 2012 2:10pm
Quoting luSan
What a crazy day?
I am not aware of anything happening
But somebody without cash saying
"do not worry. I will save the euro."
I am definitively a fool.
We will see.
Congratulation to the flipper!
But watch out...
...still the mayor trend is south.
Yea, he said the ECB will do whatever it takes to save the euro, except all those things they said they would not do, and everything Merkel won't approve. I guess it's safe to say that saving it is different from supporting it. And, what if saving it includes kicking out Greece, Spain, etc? Finally, wouldn't a reasonable person expect the ECB to do this, anyway? Why does he feel the need to make this statement? A lot of BS being thrown around by this guy. Anyway, glad to trade his BS and hope to get some more later tonight...
  • #35,290
  • Jul 26, 2012 4:54pm Jul 26, 2012 4:54pm
have a feeling that this rally has a short life, may long a few days. fundies have not changed, euro is still in deep sh... only usd weakening may help rising euro if there is QE. this is not the first time 200 pip a day move happening. the last one before this was a few weeks ago at Asian session, 200 smth up in couple of hours, anyone remember? then what happened - the lowest for the last couple of years 1.20xx.
high TF charts bearish, too many supply zones. higher it rises, more attractive it becomes to short. 1.18 still in my sight. i consider playing bull only at over 1.30.
As Above, So Below
  • #35,291
  • Jul 26, 2012 4:55pm Jul 26, 2012 4:55pm
Quoting GEfx
Yea, he said the ECB will do whatever it takes to save the euro, except all those things they said they would not do, and everything Merkel won't approve. I guess it's safe to say that saving it is different from supporting it. And, what if saving it includes kicking out Greece, Spain, etc? Finally, wouldn't a reasonable person expect the ECB to do this, anyway? Why does he feel the need to make this statement? A lot of BS being thrown around by this guy. Anyway, glad to trade his BS and hope to get some more later tonight...
Back home after a long day of work.
I see in metatrader how PA bounced from 1.2330.
I just wonder it this is all that the ECB broken bullshiter
can do. Can he move it up xx30 when the German lady
is on vacation? How the heck this huge news move when
there is no news but more of the same?
ECB is not going any place until the German court/people decide.
Who knows but it is fun to watch.
I will pause here until further notice.
Let us see tonight if they have more bullets.

Edit: Before I left from work I told my wife that I am losing, she look at the chart and said ,"don't bother, what goes up, comes down." We laughed, I sent more troops at 1.2260 and I went to my lab. Cheers.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #35,292
  • Edited 6:20pm Jul 26, 2012 6:08pm | Edited 6:20pm
everyone has crystal ball?
ok
lets see.

@ Lusan You should know better.
@GEfx be nimble.

all bias, no flow, will get dangerous.
clear mind and flow.
Time window over still hung up.
Lets see if there's any real retracements.
anyway, i had said what i need say.
your choices.

take a peek into the daily charts euro/usd, Euro/cable, Euro/Aud, Euro/yen.
see anything , anyone seeing weakness in euro?
I don't, but i not know why yet.

if far east retraces, i remind you of the chance.


regards
  • #35,293
  • Jul 26, 2012 6:22pm Jul 26, 2012 6:22pm
My quote:
Quoting lusan
I will pause here until further notice.
Let us see tonight if they have more bullets.
I am open...water...let us see...no real bias...at this moment...planning strategy either way...

Quoting fti
take a peek into the daily charts euro/usd, Euro/cable, Euro/Aud, Euro/yen.
see anything , anyone seeing weakness in euro?
I don't, but i not know why yet.
regards
E/U D1 is screaming ...E/G frozen...drifting south,,,
PA is frozen...everyone seem to be waiting...drinking wine, waiting...then we act..
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #35,294
  • Edited 7:59pm Jul 26, 2012 7:42pm | Edited 7:59pm
Quoting kinky
just thought it might be a good time to refresh on lecture #273 after today's tutorial..
This is a good post, thankyou!

I couldn't wrap my mind over the sudden reversal because I kept thinking short short short. Rigit mindset.. Not nimble enough
  • #35,295
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:12pm Jul 26, 2012 8:12pm
Euro?? What's changed??
  • #35,296
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:15pm Jul 26, 2012 8:15pm
only seeing some crossess activity
  • #35,297
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:52pm Jul 26, 2012 8:52pm
Quoting fti

take a peek into the daily charts euro/usd, Euro/cable, Euro/Aud, Euro/yen.
see anything , anyone seeing weakness in euro?
I don't, but i not know why yet.
I don't see any sign of weakness in recent days. The herd short term bias is long and long term bias is short. Mine is nought, all depends on where the market takes me.

Regards,
King
  • #35,298
  • Jul 26, 2012 8:54pm Jul 26, 2012 8:54pm
Everybody is waiting or drinking wine
.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #35,299
  • Jul 26, 2012 9:24pm Jul 26, 2012 9:24pm
Quoting luSan
Everybody is waiting or drinking wine
.
Yep, the one night I should be drinkin and I'm not! Just my luck. LOL
  • #35,300
  • Jul 26, 2012 9:29pm Jul 26, 2012 9:29pm
im squaring all my legs.
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