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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #35,261
  • Edited 10:20am Jul 26, 2012 9:59am | Edited 10:20am
Quoting Acs_112
So too scale in heavy and be out very quickly and fast in move like today is not part of the MO? not good practice??
scaling against trend in falling knife or rocket situation?
come on read the thread.

the problem with peeps not have experience is that they have 1 set of tools for everything.
terrain and strategies is a combination.
problem is peeps have 1 track mind and no nimbleness for change.

By the way whats the MO.
tell me?


regards

you can only begin scaling in when markets yields to you.
you want force a scaling on a waterfall or rocket shooting at you?

Ist of all i like ask you when markets move,
are you right or the market?
successful peeps always feel they smarter mostly
thats why when they come in markets they gets killed mostly.

My experiece, concures, those have phd and masters seldom make it in my rooms.
normally is those borderline acedemic fellows , very street smart able to survive.
Egors have a very uphill task , getting thru.
they too smart for their own rigidity.

for street smart fellows, some gets killed when their success gets to their heads.
After sucess they begin think they superman. Then markets retrain them.
  • #35,262
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:09am Jul 26, 2012 10:09am
Quoting fti
killing fields.
i made good.
from loss to a big bonus.

regards
Hi fti, I was not in the market when the big move started, so I did not have any skin in the game at that time. All I can say now is, thank you Mr. Draghi for today, and thank you fti for teaching me long ago to be flexible. I have banked the profits and am waiting for the next move. Good trading everyone!
  • #35,263
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:10am Jul 26, 2012 10:10am
Quoting fti
why not?
here a small tip
when markets crawling against yor position thats ok
when they rush, get out, shoot first ask later.
even if cutting first was wrong move, you will always find opportunities reestablish position when she stabalise.
and if its not a rocket or a knife, won't be far from your exit.
but if its one then at lleast you minimised losses.
.
Hi FTI and Guys This TIP i will write down and remember . I had a few times like that . Everithing Goes well and you think thats you can manage your scorpions and then suddenly with moves like that you get frozen and now knowing what to do.
So Next time for me sucha fast move Like Fti said first act and kill the position and then think and try to regroup thoughts and olny then try to feel.
Like FTI said we are as good as our last Trade . My Last Trade was bad and i dd things that i already done before and said to myself not to do . Its hard to trade very hard ' but i think i motivated enough to go threw this to live another day to trade ,
Regards
Michael
Do not be victim to conflict of the General and Commander in you - by FTI
  • #35,264
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:16am Jul 26, 2012 10:16am
Quoting fti
why not?
your brain is stone?
you cannot see the flow?

you want logic or pips?

i bet you not knopw they euro peeps are in meeting?
also you not aware of QE3?

anyway you best just clear your mind and try feel whats they doing.
if it drops down , lots peeps that caught waiting to baiol out shorts, provided they not trigger another round of ducks north first.

regards

for those new.
here a small tip
when markets crawling against yor position thats ok
when they rush, get out, shoot first ask later.
even if cutting first was wrong move, you...
This is the clearest message yu ever given ...

V

PS: i lost 1% book that is fine bcz i had small position open ...anyhow..good learning...
  • #35,265
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:25am Jul 26, 2012 10:25am
Quoting indianguyinny24
This is the clearest message yu ever given ...

V

PS: i lost 1% book that is fine bcz i had small position open ...anyhow..good learning...

is not, I said so many times already.
anyway.
I want say you are a good trader, you minimised loss, with discipline.
Good MM.

I better trader, I skined the bastards. Otherwise i am very lucky ass.
I was short euro too, but my cable profits puts the euro as nothing. 10x+ to the euro loss.

i look forward to the day, you beat me at this.
did you noticed that cable was waiting be taken , when euro started her leg?


reagrsd
  • #35,266
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:27am Jul 26, 2012 10:27am
Quoting fti
scaling against trend in falling knife or rocket situation?
come on read the thread.

the problem with peeps not have experience is that they have 1 set of tools for everything.
terrain and strategies is a combination.
problem is peeps have 1 track mind and no nimbleness for change.

By the way whats the MO.
tell me?


regards

you can only begin scaling in when markets yields to you.
you want force a scaling on a waterfall or rocket shooting at you?

Ist of all i like ask you when markets move,
are you right or the market?
successful...
let me see if i can work out right mo.
MO is to sit tight until happy that market is dancing smoothly.
and only enter with a small size and no scaling...and wait to go with daily trend which is up....otherwise sit out.until market calms down
  • #35,267
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:33am Jul 26, 2012 10:33am
Quoting eblip
let me see if i can work out right mo.
Mo is to sit tight until happy that market is dancing smoothly.
And only enter with a small size and no scaling...and wait to go with daily trend which is up....otherwise sit out.until market calms down
....please read thread.

again

try look for stuff like....

badly timed entrys.................trading with the trend.
  • #35,268
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:36am Jul 26, 2012 10:36am
Quoting fti

is not, I said so many times already.
anyway.
I want say you are a good trader, you minimised loss, with discipline.
Good MM.

I better trader, I skined the bastards. Otherwise i am very lucky ass.
I was short euro too, but my cable profits puts the euro as nothing. 10x+ to the euro loss.

i look forward to the day, you beat me at this.
did you noticed that cable was waiting be taken , when euro started her leg?


reagrsd


I wont say i want to beat you...but one day i want to make you feel proud....

i saw a lot on euro/aussie when i was going to sleep that its getting hard time to go down but when i go to bed i go with the MAJOR trend so went with some open position of short....


thanks for saying right words though

V
  • #35,269
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:38am Jul 26, 2012 10:38am
Quoting duyk20
how?
just thought it might be a good time to refresh on lecture #273 after today's tutorial..

Quoting fti

When a counter impulse wave hits, the move are very swift, sharp and directional, normally against our position.

If such was in our position I call it windfall profit and I initiate profitaking procedures to regroup for a strong skew attack later. .

If such was to my detrement, I call it a @#$% position and I take out the last attack size from the market at a loss, and allow the remaining positions to "bleed".

I then would go back to the charts to check if the impulse is "contained" within the scope of the trend. Normally it would have killed the short chart trend and indicated reversal. It would be good to see if this was so , in the hourly charts.

Then I scan through the other short charts up to the hourly to find the point where the impulse is not reversal to continue a level up rescue, if it exist.

Otherwise, if the hourly chart is impacted the next rescue is 1 level up from the last cut loss size and RESCUE IS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE IMPULSE , this means that the open positions are reversed, as the bleeding stops and built into position as the volatility wanes, normally in such instances, the retraces would hardly be 30 % normally 10%. So the reversal is executed in stages swiftly as the bleeding slows and as soon as the next wave is "felt", the rescue "last+1 level up" is pumped into the market to rescue.
  • #35,270
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:44am Jul 26, 2012 10:44am
those that didn't recognised trend changed after 12180
you best sit stare at your chart for 1 hour see if you noticed it.

Those still short after 1.2220, you best check you egor.

she tired retracing some.
don't you even DARE think selling.
  • #35,271
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:44am Jul 26, 2012 10:44am
Quoting fti
....please read thread.

again

try look for stuff like....

badly timed entrys.................trading with the trend.
ok ..i will find the information..
thank you.
  • #35,272
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:48am Jul 26, 2012 10:48am
Quoting fti
those that didn't recognised trend changed after 12180
you best sit stare at your chart for 1 hour see if you noticed it.

Those still short after 1.2220, you best check you egor.
Chief,

Not to stray away....but even with the current PA i dont feel confident enough to scale on the long side... honestly if i am me ( i take the current week off whenever i have a loss personal rule) i rather hit and run from the short side with MM then scale from the long side...

is that my egor or is that i dont trust this Euro bull or i am just having too much NEWS on my head?

what am i doing wrong here


V
  • #35,273
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:48am Jul 26, 2012 10:48am
Quoting fti
those that didn't recognised trend changed after 12180
you best sit stare at your chart for 1 hour see if you noticed it.

Those still short after 1.2220, you best check you egor.
That was my point, if the trend had changed should we not attack into it, and then scale out very quickly reducing exposure and risk banking some foreign capital..... this is wrong...??
  • #35,274
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:58am Jul 26, 2012 10:58am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Chief,

Not to stray away....but even with the current PA i dont feel confident enough to scale on the long side... honestly if i am me ( i take the current week off whenever i have a loss personal rule) i rather hit and run from the short side with MM then scale from the long side...

is that my egor or is that i dont trust this Euro bull or i am just having too much NEWS on my head?

what am i doing wrong here


V
you are BIAS.


regards
  • #35,275
  • Jul 26, 2012 10:59am Jul 26, 2012 10:59am
yes thank you for key feedback fti.
i will re read.

as today i thought sweep was taking place for sitting ducks ...and then i thought sweep going too far... and powerful and strong... but maybe downtrend still intact.

then i thought oh too late this is maybe up trend ....but probably short term...i will rescue on retrace...
then i thought too powerful ....just cut losses and run...as i am on the wrong side of a move that is powerful and seems to never ever stop...so im pulling plug...


in hidsight...after sweep for stops force upwards was very strong...i actually wanted to jump on ...but i felt like a pig if i did.
and also i thought if i jump on then trend will change...against me ...because market seems to know exactly what im thinking..
i have many thoughts now ....should have cut losses sooner...
5 minute chart would not go lower earlier on...i should have jumped on this move before it even started if i dance correctly.
experience being in the middle of change of trend ...and all the conflicting emotions...

today was a good day.
but i will read
  • #35,276
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:01am Jul 26, 2012 11:01am
Quoting Acs_112
That was my point, if the trend had changed should we not attack into it, and then scale out very quickly reducing exposure and risk banking some foreign capital..... this is wrong...??
trend changed, ok, and you know that it will run from a changed position?
You like chase things that are late?

In trading only thing wrong is lose pips.
Do you have the ability and agility? is my question.


regards
  • #35,277
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:02am Jul 26, 2012 11:02am
Quoting fti
you are BIAS.


regards

Thank you....still need to control this Egor...not enough agile yet...thank you again


V
  • #35,278
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:04am Jul 26, 2012 11:04am
Quoting fti
those that didn't recognised trend changed after 12180
you best sit stare at your chart for 1 hour see if you noticed it.

Those still short after 1.2220, you best check you egor.

she tired retracing some.
don't you even DARE think selling.
I'll stare at it.
  • #35,279
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:08am Jul 26, 2012 11:08am
Hi guys

what fti is said is so true about falling knives and shooting rockets.

Just imagine you are running WITH the wind, now imagine the wind started to pick up speed to 40km/hr. You sure you wanna go running???

Today's scenario is in conjunction with trading important figs.

I also see it as this way as well. If market is able to create a shooting rocket then it can be easily reversed, turning it into a falling knife.

Correct me if I am wrong.
  • #35,280
  • Jul 26, 2012 11:11am Jul 26, 2012 11:11am
For me I think the volatility was simply too strong to warrant any possible rescue without using outrageous amount of skew. Feel the move and act like lightning!

Thanks fti for your advice.

Regards
King
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