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Tiger trend trading -long term position trading

  • #221
  • Edited 2:54pm Jul 24, 2012 2:22pm | Edited 2:54pm
Hotjoey:
If you want the ma ribbons to show up on all timeframes
..go to visualization tab in the indicator properties and click all timeframes.

I see that Brigadier answered your question..

also, i would like to share some thoughts..
I would like to say that it would be nice to do a partial close based on
any of the rules here..so that you retain some of the pips..
maybe use the daily chart (or hourly chart)..
it will build your confidence!!!!

as you know, the EA is still in this FF-think-tanks(i mean all of us) wall breaking phase,
i am sure there will be some more of the healthy improvements...
meanwhile..please keep running it!!

thanks,
manny

Quoting hotjoey
my friend supercat,
thanks to your kind sharing for this wonderful system. I trade with this system manually; and it works good.

Now iam testing the EA; so far it works so well, too.

I get one questions. how does the EA automatically add positions after the signal gets confirmed? I mean the logical of the system?

when i manually trade the MA ribbon system , how do i add positions?
thanks


PS: the trading results is so great. i am still demo on it. Guys could see my performance.
"Quod me alit, me extinguit" - Pericles, Prince of Tyre
  • #222
  • Jul 24, 2012 2:26pm Jul 24, 2012 2:26pm
Quoting supercat1977
Amiralifx:

Have you tried the 2nd lot exit based on the daily high-low violation..
or are you just going with 1 lot entry only?

thanks,
manny
I just going with 1 lot entry only becaue my real account is very small.


thanks
  • #223
  • Jul 24, 2012 2:32pm Jul 24, 2012 2:32pm
cool..no problem..
i was just curious..thats all.


Quoting amiralifx
I just going with 1 lot entry only becaue my real account is very small.


thanks
"Quod me alit, me extinguit" - Pericles, Prince of Tyre
  • #224
  • Edited 3:26pm Jul 24, 2012 3:12pm | Edited 3:26pm
as you know the results are based on less than 50% data accuracy..
so..you know!!
for some reason my mt4 tester is not running with this ea..dont have a clue why.

anyways..i tested this EA 1.1 for gbpusd..
various iterations..with slight changes in the modeling parameters..
here is how its looking..

for the past 2 months i.e. from may, 2012 until july25th, 2012
all of the runs were simulated for
5min 3/5 EMA ON gbpusd pair w/ ttt1.1


SL-EMAS-PC-L-NTG-GRLS-DD
10 1-5 NO 0.01 1179 942 15%
15 2-5 NO 0.01 2280 1282 18%
20 2-5 YES 0.02 2535 2615 23%
20 1-5 NO 0.01 2310 1566 22%

SL-STOPLOSS
EMAS-DAILY EMAS FOR TREND SIGNAL
PC-PARTIAL CLOSE
L-LOT SIZE
NTG-NET GAIN
GRLS-GROSS LOSS
DD-DRAWDOWN


It seems much better when daily emas are sensitive..
lets see...i am testing on other pairs..


thanks,
manny

p.s: please note that the pdfs titled 35ema are actually 25ema for the daily.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf gbpusd-sl10-15ema.htm.pdf   265 KB | 403 downloads
File Type: pdf gbpusd-sl15-35ema.htm.pdf   261 KB | 407 downloads
File Type: pdf gbpusd-sl20-15ema.htm.pdf   265 KB | 403 downloads
File Type: pdf gbpusd-sl20-35ema-partialclose.htm.pdf   174 KB | 263 downloads
"Quod me alit, me extinguit" - Pericles, Prince of Tyre
  • #225
  • Jul 24, 2012 10:38pm Jul 24, 2012 10:38pm
What TF are you guys running it on. I've got it set on M15 on 5 charts now, so far after 24 hrs it's 16.6 pips up. Gonna let in run a few days then gonna change TF's to daily.

Kinda slow going so far, maybe it's the pairs I'm testing
EURUSD
GBPCHF
GBPUSD
EURNZD
AUDUSD

Thanks for all your hard work
Cooly
  • #226
  • Jul 25, 2012 2:25am Jul 25, 2012 2:25am
Quoting TheBrigadier
Looking over all the testing data for the past few months paints a rosier protrait of trading conditions than they should actually be. GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD were perfect scenarios for trading this system from May until the present. Too good perhaps, because the data during that time frame did not mimic the full range of market conditions. Nevertheless, GBP/NZD and EUR/NZD still produce strong results in the long term.

I like the main idea of this system: determine the long trend and let the profits run while cutting losses. It boils down to three...
Brigadier,

With your permission, I would like to offer some constructive criticism.
In the first place, the exits are not the problem, the entries are. By entering on every signal, you're increasing your risk proportionally to your exposure. While you should aim to increase your exposure while keeping your risk relatively static. You could use different approaches for this - for example, you could only enter a new position if all the opened positions are in profit and their SL is set at BE. This will give you a vast number of breakevens, however, it will also reduce dramatically the drawdown. The big number of entries could still cause 'account bleeding', though, especially in ranges. To handle ranges, you could intentionally 'ignore' areas when you recently lost a position (e.g. you don't take a trade if the price didn't move at least 20-30p from the last loss).
Last, but not least, there is no such thing as accurate method of predicting the long term trend. Also, you don't need one. Your aim should be to place as many positions as possible on the right side of the trend, while keeping losses as small as possible. How do you do that? By entering positions, moving SL to BE and letting them either grow or die. If they are on the correct side of the trend - which you could never know for sure at the time you enter - they are going to survive and grow. If not, they die at BE and you lose nothing. If you're still not happy with the results and think a lot more than needed positions die because of random fluctuations, you could use an 'intermediate' signal - say, H1 ema cross in the opposite direction - to evaluate the status of the group and close some of the smaller positions to reduce your exposure and bank some pips.

Hope that helps.
Please keep in mind, that all examples are just things I thought of 'on the fly'. I've never tried them in the context of the system discussed here, some I've never tried at all. They are by no means a recommendation. I'm just giving them as a reference to what I would think of first.

Best regards,
Barbossa
  • #227
  • Jul 25, 2012 6:52am Jul 25, 2012 6:52am
Hi Guys,
Sorry if I have not understood correctly.. I agree with the system as I have been following this for last 2-3 weeks. Can someone explain why below on daily says BUY using MA-5 & 10 and on M15 SELL- if i took all buy then all looses. I understand sometime it is loss but is there anything which I am missing....

Thanks
Sham
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.jpg Size: 136 KB
  • #228
  • Jul 25, 2012 8:10am Jul 25, 2012 8:10am
Quoting Barbossa
Brigadier,

With your permission, I would like to offer some constructive criticism.
In the first place, the exits are not the problem, the entries are. By entering on every signal, you're increasing your risk proportionally to your exposure. While you should aim to increase your exposure while keeping your risk relatively static. You could use different approaches for this - for example, you could only enter a new position if all the opened positions are in profit and their SL is set at BE. This will give you a vast number of breakevens, however,...
I never gave you permission...

j/k

Ok, well if you look at the second point I made, I had said that we need to draft some refined entries on the 15 minute charts, so that we don't flood the market with precarious trades when we get a high volume of signals. The idea of increasing exposure without increasing risk certainly makes sense. I'll try testing this out on previous data. Only open new trades after the last trade has been set to BE. Set trades to break even when... uh, I'll have to experiment with that.

I still think we can improve trend exits though. At the end of a trend we have so many trades open that waiting for an MA cross can lead to a lot of lost profit. Maybe this wouldn't be so bad if range period drawdown is reduced, but this is still worth looking into.
  • #229
  • Jul 25, 2012 8:32am Jul 25, 2012 8:32am
Quoting TheBrigadier
I still think we can improve trend exits though. At the end of a trend we have so many trades open that waiting for an MA cross can lead to a lot of lost profit. Maybe this wouldn't be so bad if range period drawdown is reduced, but this is still worth looking into.
Waiting for the MA crossover can be improved upon for sure. However, how do you know it's the end of the trend and not just a pullback? Back in "Building equity millipede" there was a description of a nice aggressive position management that tackled the issue. Suppose you're building a short group. Whenever a candle closes above the most recent down candle on the higher TF, close half of the opened positions. That way you'll quickly scale out of the market on a trend change, while you'll still have some positions left in case it's only a pullback and the trend resumes. Yeah, you'll still lose some potential profits, however, you'll be more flexible. Worth some backtesting maybe?

Sincerely,
Barbossa
  • #230
  • Jul 25, 2012 9:11am Jul 25, 2012 9:11am
just now， after the US markets opening, the system again gives signal. I enter demo and wait for the growth of the profit.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7-25 2eurusd short.jpg Size: 134 KB
  • #231
  • Jul 25, 2012 9:22am Jul 25, 2012 9:22am
Quoting shamnonu
Hi Guys,
Sorry if I have not understood correctly.. I agree with the system as I have been following this for last 2-3 weeks. Can someone explain why below on daily says BUY using MA-5 & 10 and on M15 SELL- if i took all buy then all looses. I understand sometime it is loss but is there anything which I am missing....

Thanks
Sham
hi, shamnonu,

i get two answers for u. hope it can make things clear.

first. any system get wrong signals. there is no holy grail on earth. supercat told us at the beginning that his system's win rate is lower than 50%(30%).Still, the system can bring profit. why? the failed trades are very small losses. but the wins can make u rich.

hence, just stick to the engaging rules (supercat said, u could build confidence).
second. about the entry rules. u could re-read it at page 1. Or u could check the posts by supercat @ page1 and the posts @ page 14. A friend gave examples for me on how to use the system correctly.

about the the pair u choose:usdcad. it seems supercat said that is not very good choice for the system.

good luck.
  • #232
  • Jul 25, 2012 9:44am Jul 25, 2012 9:44am
Thanks hotjoey.. I agree and will go back again to read the page. Just need to make sure I am following the system correctly.
  • #233
  • Jul 25, 2012 1:35pm Jul 25, 2012 1:35pm
well..
Although I think pipeasy's method to be the greatest trend trading education I have ever received in my life...my personal choice is NO BE..
But, I am willing to look at the results with BE on all entries.

Anyways..
I have always looked at the gross losses for some reason to give me
an idea if the EA will stand a chance to fight the monster in the cage..
(i do know that the cluster trades are bothersome)
so far with the crude testing on a few pairs..it is excellent!!

Maybe, banking some pips will be great because...
we are losing a lot of the floating equity, during the trend change
I tried to lessen this by using a much more sensitive ema as the signal.

thanks,
manny
"Quod me alit, me extinguit" - Pericles, Prince of Tyre
  • #234
  • Edited 3:50pm Jul 25, 2012 1:52pm | Edited 3:50pm
for the past 3 months i.e. from may, 2012 until july25th, 2012
for some of the pairs that i ran today are s follows..

all of the runs were simulated on a 10,000 account..using dime orders(0.01)

5min 3/5 EMA ON
eurjpy 5 min
SL-EMAS-PC-L-NTG-GRLS-DD
20 1-5 NO 0.01 1249 1979 19%

5min 3/5 EMA ON
eurjpy 5 min
SL-EMAS-PC-L-NTG-GRLS-DD
20 2-5 NO 0.01 5616 1985 26%

5min 3/5 EMA ON
eurnzd 5 min
SL-EMAS-PC-L-NTG-GRLS-DD
30 1-5 NO 0.01 6375 2214 15%

5min 3/5 EMA ON
eurnzd 5 min
SL-EMAS-PC-L-NTG-GRLS-DD
30 2-5 NO 0.01 5983 2228 15%

5min 3/5 EMA ON
eurnzd 5 min
SL-EMAS-PC-L-NTG-GRLS-DD
40 2-5 NO 0.01 7749 2557 15%

5min 3/5 EMA ON
gbpjpy 5 min
SL-EMAS-PC-L-NTG-GRLS-DD
30 2-5 NO 0.01 3282 3035 39%

5min 3/5 EMA ON
gbpjpy 5 min
SL-EMAS-PC-L-NTG-GRLS-DD
25 2-5 NO 0.01 2800 2690 36%

5min 3/5 EMA ON
eurusd 5 min
SL-EMAS-PC-L-NTG-GRLS-DD
10 2-5 NO 0.01 -410 -950 10%



SL-STOPLOSS
EMAS-DAILY EMAS FOR TREND SIGNAL
PC-PARTIAL CLOSE
L-LOT SIZE
NTG-NET GAIN
GRLS-GROSS LOSS
DD-DRAWDOWN
"Quod me alit, me extinguit" - Pericles, Prince of Tyre
  • #235
  • Edited 3:29pm Jul 25, 2012 2:14pm | Edited 3:29pm
the only thing that i dislike about these results
is the floating dd..its big for a dime account..
now, this dd is what we are losing when the trend changes..
and I do want to to retain at least 20%-50% of those losing pips when the trend change happens(or at least +20% overall..whatever)

Brigadier,
I do think the ea is great..or at least, i want to see it in a very holistic manner..its all right to me...believe me..in the long run it will kick ass!!
but..
if you could please incorporate just one addition,
that would make it even more effective (I think as per my initial rule)..in banking more pips..by a PARTIAL trailing stop..on the daily candle..
please look into it when you find some free time.
this is again a 1/2 close option!!
(because i just feel that tp=sl is not doing any good in the long run)

here are the details..

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...48#post5838948

please let me know your thinking as well..

thanks,
manny
"Quod me alit, me extinguit" - Pericles, Prince of Tyre
  • #236
  • Jul 25, 2012 2:23pm Jul 25, 2012 2:23pm
lets say, if you stand to gain these net gains
or the whereabouts, from the past two months..its a significant increase in your account balance!!
20% on 1 pair is really good from a 3 month period..
but, i am sure with super-pairs like gbpnzd and eurnzd..it will go crazy!!
"Quod me alit, me extinguit" - Pericles, Prince of Tyre
  • #237
  • Jul 25, 2012 2:48pm Jul 25, 2012 2:48pm
thanks hotjoey,
for your help in making this forum
helpful to others.


Quoting hotjoey
hi, shamnonu,

i get two answers for u. hope it can make things clear.

first. any system get wrong signals. there is no holy grail on earth. supercat told us at the beginning that his system's win rate is lower than 50%(30%).Still, the system can bring profit. why? the failed trades are very small losses. but the wins can make u rich.

hence, just stick to the engaging rules (supercat said, u could build confidence).
second. about the entry rules. u could re-read it at page 1. Or u could check the posts by supercat @ page1 and the posts...
"Quod me alit, me extinguit" - Pericles, Prince of Tyre
  • #238
  • Jul 25, 2012 2:57pm Jul 25, 2012 2:57pm
Coolyman:

I am really interested in seeing how the "madman" gbpchf behaves..
lets wait to see..

thanks for being a part of this testing.

thanks,
manny


Quoting thecoolyman
What TF are you guys running it on. I've got it set on M15 on 5 charts now, so far after 24 hrs it's 16.6 pips up. Gonna let in run a few days then gonna change TF's to daily.

Kinda slow going so far, maybe it's the pairs I'm testing
EURUSD
GBPCHF
GBPUSD
EURNZD
AUDUSD

Thanks for all your hard work
Cooly
"Quod me alit, me extinguit" - Pericles, Prince of Tyre
  • #239
  • Jul 25, 2012 3:08pm Jul 25, 2012 3:08pm
Coolyman:
glad to see your trading is going good.

i am pretty sure, the longer you hold on to the system and follow the rules
the more confidence you will have in following the system...
its just the way we are made.

keep posting.

thanks,
manny




QUOTE=thecoolyman;5866469]Manny,
Glad to see the new version of the EA, the older version was working but I hadn't seen any real profits from it, but then again I only had it running about 1 week. Although even with the crossover EA I was banking some good pips on my Demo account.

Manual trading I was delighted to see Sundays balance at over 300 plus pips. I banked 200 of them and am up 300 more pips now before midnight. I might bank another 200 pips before I go to bed and let the rest run with the trends.

I've got my platform set up so I can easily scan through my charts. Set aside the coming possible set up's and stack up the others, then I can easily scan through the possible 1's through out the day and place my trades as they set up.

I've been having problems back testing, I'm new at it so go figure, LOL. I downloaded the strategy tester and trying to get it working so I can give ya some more results. I've added the new EA to a set of charts to run demo on and I'll keep ya informed.

Thanks again for helping to become a better trader[/quote]
"Quod me alit, me extinguit" - Pericles, Prince of Tyre
  • #240
  • Jul 25, 2012 3:26pm Jul 25, 2012 3:26pm
Carlitodog:

The ttt ver1.1 is ready!!

please if you can..
you might want to test it on much more accurate data than what i have used and see how you feel...
for some reason my tester with 90% data is not letting the EA run.

thanks,
manny



Quoting carlitodog
Brigadier, manny. I've been absent from this thread for a while now.... long enough to get utterly frustrated with my own trading and i am now looking forward to following and testing your system.
i was thinging i would put together an EA to trade this strategy as it really would be better if I was not involved in day to day decisions.... then i see that you guys have already started.

i intend to begin testing your EA this weekend, is there any modifications / refinements that you were thinking of which you might like some assistance?
"Quod me alit, me extinguit" - Pericles, Prince of Tyre
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