Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Tuesday 5/16/2006 14:15 ET

TS#53 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8890 (market price) or higher

Stop is 1.8912

Target is 1.8725

Reward is min. 160 pips

Risk is max. 27 pips

Reward: Risk ratio is min. 5.9 to 1

For testing purposes only.

Hi Itme,

Your trading signal is excellent but it get stop out quite often too ..
Can you elaborate or post some a charts to show how to increase stop loss point at reversal time . Very much appreciate for your kindness about this matter.
P.S. I like your trading signal and it's free . Thanks . I don't mind to subcribe for your tradind signal if you offer the service too.

Dear Newbie,

We will take your comment into advisement, and try to develop a procedure for refining the stop price and entry price at the time of entry. Thanks for your suggestion.

However, we believe that with further research we will be able to provide signals which work most of the time without user involvement.

Of course, we are right up against the challenge inherent in developing high performance trade signals. That challenge is in prescribing a small or close stop which is not hit very often, at the beginning of a long trend. And to add to the challenge, we have to try to capture the majority of trend profits, without placing the limit too far, in which case we would risk the market turning around and us being stopped out even though the trade came close to the target.

We are tackling the ultimate challenge of trading - precision predictions of trend reversal points. The difficulty is very great, but the benefits of success is very high rate of return on capital.

In some cases we have failed to specify the exact ultimate top of the trend, and in these cases the market may go one or two times back and forth, repeatedly challenging the reversal zone.

In some cases the procedure outlined in the attachment will be useful for adjusting the stop to avoid being stopped out when the trade is valid in principle, but just a little too short in the stop.

Hi ITME,

Thanks for your instruction of adjustment your stop loss signal.
Now i 'm comfortable to trade your signal with large lots .
I have to tell you that i trade live account with your signal.
So far , it's fantasfic . My account grew 300 % up today.
Thanks so much . Your're my man .

This trade missed being stopped out by only 1 pip.

We recommend that you exit at market price which is 109.66 to 109.60 to take profits of about 100 pips. We anticipate a rise in the market before the trend continues to the lower target of 109.00. A re-entry at a higher price will increase profits.

Original trade:

TS#46 Sell USD/JPY at 110.60 Monday 5/15/2006 6:45 ET
TS#46 Sell USD/JPY at 110.60 or higher
Stop is 110.86
Target is 109.00
Reward is min. 151 pips
Risk is max. 30 pips
Reward :Risk ratio is min. 5.0
For testing purposes only.

If anyone shorted USD/CAD at 1.1172, then they should exit at 1.1058, as USD/CAD is likely to rise from that point a fair amount before it continues with its decline.

Original signal:

Exit TS#44 Short USD/CAD at market price - approx. 1.1130 Monday 5/15/2006 8:30 ET
Exit TS#44 (Short USD/CAD) at market price - approx. 1.1130
USD/CAD is likely to rise to a new high or double top. The safe strategy is to exit at market price of 111.20 to 1.1135 and take profit, then re-enter when the price rises to approx. 1.1175 to 1.1185.

Original trade signal:
Monday 5/15/2006 6:45 ET
Re-enter TS#44 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1175
Stop is 1.1204
Target is 1.1000
Reward is min. 170 pips
Risk is max. 34 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5: 1
For testing purposes only.

We backchecked why we hit the stop on TS#47 Sell USD/CHF by only about 5 pips, and discovered that our system performed well. The correct place for the stop should have been 1.2175, not 1.2161. The problem was human error, not system failure.

We shall try to spend more time checking and updating the trade signals, in order to avoid similar unnecessary system failures.

If the price of USD/CHF rises to somewhere between 1.2126 and 1.2170, then a re-entry opportunity may present itself, as the original target is still good. We shall have to wait and see what unfolds.

Original Trade Signal:
Monday 5/15/2006 7:30 ET
TS#47 Sell USD/CHF at 1.2127 or higher
Stop is 1.2161
Target is 1.1920
Reward is min. 188 pips
Risk is max. 39 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 4.8 to 1
For testing purposes only.
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Tuesday 5/16/2006 17:30 ET

Due to the long time since this trade signal was issued, the price paramaters have changed.

Revised TS#49:

Sell CAD/JPY at 99.76 or higher

Stop is 100.16

Target is 97.50

Reward is min. 216 pips

Risk is max. 50 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 4.2 to 1

_____________________________________

Original Trade Signal:

Monday 5/15/2006 17:45 ET
TS#49 Sell CAD/JPY at 99.70 or higher
Stop is 100.03
Target is 98.25
Reward is min. 135 pips
Risk is max. 43 pips
Reward : Risk Ratio is 3.1 to 1
For testing purposes only.

Congratulations on your excellent performance, Newbie. We must remind you that this is only the beta test of a trading system, so the performance results have not been long term backtested. Furthermore, the trading analysts are just now learning to use this system properly. I hope that you are trading with capital that you can afford to lose.

That being said, I am partial to this model, and feel that it is the best analytical model that I am aware of.

A trading system has two components - the analytical model for market predictions, and the money management strategy. The two have to be married together like the engine and transmission in an automobile or other means of conveyance. The market analytical system is like the engine, and the money management system is like the transmission.

We have tried to develop a high performance trading system employing a very sophisticated market analytical model, and married it to a high performance money management strategy. Thus the small stops and large rewards. This is the way to achieve the highest rate of return. It is the most difficult way to trade, but our analytical model is very strong, precise and reliable, so we hope that we can achieve this ultimate goal of the forex trader.

Would you care to describe your trade history so far, and the rationales behind what you did?

Hi Itme,

I traded live account about a month ago after few weeks of demo account.
One professional trader in this forum mentioned that trading demo account did
not have psychologycal factor and wont help anything in reality.
That was true . My demo account grew 200% in 2 weeks from 50k to 107k.
So what's the heck , i jumped in 2 feet in 5k live account. I use my saving money though. Yeah, it will hurt if i lose my saving .
From the beginning i followed the signal from trading journal in this forum.
I won some and lost some here and there 15 pips 8 pips but i lost more than
won though .All signals i picked were mediocre .I lost 137 pips and 174 pips from the signal of adam 3000 , this woman has signal w/o stop loss or target at all.
Fornatunely i came across your thread a week ago , i tried out your signal,
it was excellent .
So , i used them only for my trade .I trade mini account with 5 to 10 lots a time.
Your signal is a winner although i got stop out quite often .
Lately i increase your stop loss around 10 pips and it works like a charm.
Now my account grew to 15.3k . Thanks so much my friend ...
I will continue to use your signal until my account reachs 1mil .
What do you think? Is it possible?
Thanks again.

Revise stop on TS#53 to 1.8845

GBP/USD could go down to 1.8830, but to be safe we advise exiting at 1.8845 for a profit of about 40 to 45 pips. We expect GBP/USD to rise to between 1.8925 and 1.8950 tonight, at which point a prime opportunity to sell GB/USD will present itself for a large 200 pip profit downwards trade towards a target of about 1.8725.

Original trade signal:
Tuesday 5/16/2006 14:15 ET
TS#53 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8890 (market price) or higher
Stop is 1.8912
Target is 1.8725
Reward is min. 160 pips
Risk is max. 27 pips
Reward: Risk ratio is min. 5.9 to 1
For testing purposes only.

Example of third entry opportunity - Sell AUD/USD at about .7700 There is a third opportunity to enter the trade shorting AUD/USD now at a price of approximately .7686 - .7700

It rose to .7693, which may be the third high, but it could go all the way up to about .7700. Those who want the lowest risk and highest reward should wait in the chance it rises to .7700. Those who are wanting to be in a trade for sure can sell at market price ( approx. .7687) and set stop to .7714

New stop price is .7714

Original signal:


TS#52 - Sell AUD/USD at market price - approx. .7675 or higher Tuesday 5/16/2006 10:45 ET
TS#52
Sell AUD/USD at market price - approx. .7675 or higher
Target is .7500
Stop is 1.7691
Reward is min. 170 pips
Risk is max. 20 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 8.5 to 1
For testing purposes only.

If you were paying attention, we tried to get you out of this trade before it shot up. We advised revise of stop to 1.8845. Of course this doesn't make sense. We meant to revise target, not stop to 1.8845. Sorry for the confusion. Perhaps it was our error, as it only descended to 1.8852 before shooting up to 1.8927. We thought that it would descend to 1.8845 before turning around, but it turned around slightly sooner. We should have said exit at market price or a bit lower. But we warned you that it would go up to between 1.8925 and 1.8950 tonight before descending further.

_____________________________

Advise to exit this trade to protect profits:

Revise stop on TS#53 to 1.8845

GBP/USD could go down to 1.8830, but to be safe we advise exiting at 1.8845 for a profit of about 40 to 45 pips. We expect GBP/USD to rise to between 1.8925 and 1.8950 tonight, at which point a prime opportunity to sell GB/USD will present itself for a large 200 pip profit downwards trade towards a target of about 1.8725.

Original trade signal:
Tuesday 5/16/2006 14:15 ET
TS#53 Sell GBP/USD at 1.8890 (market price) or higher
Stop is 1.8912
Target is 1.8725
Reward is min. 160 pips
Risk is max. 27 pips
Reward: Risk ratio is min. 5.9 to 1
For testing purposes only.

Wednesday 5/17/2006 2:30 ET

TS#54

Sell GBP/JPY at slightly higher than current market value (approx. 207.25 - 207.35)

Stop is 207.75

Target is 205.00

Reward is min. 225 pips

Risk is max. 59 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 3.8 to 1

For testing only.

I have been following this thread from begining, and passes my appreciation for itme.

Wednesday 5/17/2006 3:00 ET

TS #55 Sell USD/CAD at 1.1075 or higher

Stop at 1.1088

Target is 1.0880

Reward is min. 190 pips

Risk is max. 18 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 16 to 1

For testing purposes only.

Wednesday 5/17/2006 3:10 ET

TS# 56

Sell AUD/USD at .7740 or higher

Stop is .7761

Target is .7600 or lower

Reward is min. 136 pips

Risk is max. 25 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 5.4 to 1

For testing purposes only.

You advised getting out of the cable short trade on the basis that it would go up to 1.8925 to 1.8950 at which time it would turn downward again. While this may sound simplistic, I interpreted that to mean that it could be a good trade to go long until it reached the target area for going short again. I know that you did not specifically suggest the long trade, but I still want to thank you for the 90 pips I just made on that trade because if you had not pointed out that trend I probably would not have thought of it myself.
Now I will hope to equally well or better shorting cable. Thank you again

Wednesday 5/17/2006 3:50 ET

TS#57

Sell EUR/USD at 1.2929 or higher

Stop is 1.2956

Target is 1.2600

Reward is min. 326 pips

Risk is max. 30 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 10.9 to 1

For testing purposes only.