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Higher low, lower high system

  • #5,501
  • Edited 2:06pm Jul 11, 2012 1:55pm | Edited 2:06pm
Quoting Vantage
GU 1hr had a hl today and a positive close. Price pulled back to the previous resistance level/pivot 5533. 5 min hl little/no upper wick. Scalp out for +20.

Mrs V had another buy, whilst it was a hl the 1hr had by that time had several upper wicks. I thought it was a poor trade, sideways junk (and she's normally good at avoiding those) she was lucky to get out at BE.
I had one slightly scrappy EU trade today and missed the GU, which would have been a far better trade, completely.

Price retraced 61.8% of yesterdays fall and couldn't close above MR1, hourly upper wicks making me think we were going to return to the downside. We were still on 1hr lower highs and the RSI turned down through its ma. 50 sma still headed down.

Price returned to MR1 and couldn't close above on the 5 min. I sold the lh at 87 against the ma's, took 50% off at +10 as we were effectively ranging short term and went to BE on the remainder. We made another lh and I moved my stop to 70 as I had to leave my comp, and was shortly taken out. Avg +13.5 pips on full position.

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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #5,502
  • Jul 11, 2012 9:25pm Jul 11, 2012 9:25pm
Quoting Ian
I had one slightly scrappy EU trade today and missed the GU, which would have been a far better trade, completely.
Days like this will happen. At least EUR is still into 1hr lh/ll cycle on 1hr.

GU cycle on 1hr was broken and the failure to go lower a little more pronounced. GU has a D neg close shooting star but 5500 looking like support with a hammer and US close reversal over the last 2 days when that level broken.
  • #5,503
  • Jul 12, 2012 8:59am Jul 12, 2012 8:59am
Mrs V missed the nice early moves and then had to leave so no trades at all today.

The 5 min lh's are nicely in trend with 1hr lower high negative closes setting the moves up.

We would avoid the weak counter trend pre/early US open candles waiting for the trend to resume (as posted here many times).

Oh well tomorrows another day.
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  • #5,504
  • Jul 17, 2012 9:30pm Jul 17, 2012 9:30pm
GU struggled at our identified resistance level 5670, see the D chart posted yesterday on blog. Giving no decent 1hr buy candles.

1hr chart. London session had a strong shooting star after divergence. Going into US session a weak candle (upper wick) and a lower high shooting star suggested that a fall may come.

The good angle on 5 min ma's with nice 1hr set up is within our rules to sell GU counter trend.
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  • #5,505
  • Jul 17, 2012 9:32pm Jul 17, 2012 9:32pm
Quoting Vantage
GU struggled at our identified resistance level 5670, see the D chart posted yesterday on blog. Giving no decent 1hr buy candles.

1hr chart. London session had a strong shooting star after divergence. Going into US session a weak candle (upper wick) and a lower high shooting star suggested that a fall may come.

The good angle on 5 min ma's with nice 1hr set up is within our rules to sell GU counter trend.
Forgot to add you could just as easily see the failed move up pre/early US session as one of the US open fake outs, returning to London (albeit weakish) move down.
  • #5,506
  • Jul 17, 2012 9:36pm Jul 17, 2012 9:36pm
Quoting Vantage
Forgot to add you could just as easily see the failed move up pre/early US session as one of the US open fake outs, returning to London (albeit weakish) move down.
Oh also forgot to mention that a 1hr lower high (after divergence) is also a decent set up in itself.
  • #5,507
  • Jul 18, 2012 3:05am Jul 18, 2012 3:05am
GU couldn't push up to Y's high this morning so the lh/ll cycle on 1hr is still intact.

News gave a push down for a 1 hr negative close below the pivot. There was a 50% retrace of the move down from LO culminating in an evening star pattern at FH lows which closed just below the pivot.

Sold at 5623, price pushed below MS1 and the RN and I closed for just over +30 at the highs from Asian session on Monday morning. Could have held on for a few more down to the Monthly pivot as it turned out.

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Follow, don't anticipate.
  • #5,508
  • Jul 18, 2012 3:15am Jul 18, 2012 3:15am
I sold this at break of mov avs.. also 1..2..3.. also strong pivot cluster aboveof various time frames.. 5 min chart.. corrosponding chart in reverse.. USDx
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  • #5,509
  • Jul 18, 2012 4:26am Jul 18, 2012 4:26am
Quoting Ian
GU couldn't push up to Y's high this morning so the lh/ll cycle on 1hr is still intact.

News gave a push down for a 1 hr negative close below the pivot. There was a 50% retrace of the move down from LO culminating in an evening star pattern at FH lows which closed just below the pivot.

Sold at 5623, price pushed below MS1 and the RN and I closed for just over +30 at the highs from Asian session on Monday morning. Could have held on for a few more down to the Monthly pivot as it turned out.
Nice one Ian. The failure to follow through higher on Y's close was a clue. Love the evening star trade. Turned out to be a nice 15/85 set up.

Mrs V phoned, she is in bed with flu so no trades our side.
  • #5,510
  • Jul 18, 2012 4:31am Jul 18, 2012 4:31am
Quoting danc
I sold this at break of mov avs.. also 1..2..3.. also strong pivot cluster aboveof various time frames.. 5 min chart.. corrosponding chart in reverse.. USDx

Nice also danc, again the good candles on D chart that don't follow through higher (pos engulfing 3 days ago then 2 hammers) gave a clue that something was not right. A positive close in and around LO on 1hr rejected immediately with a shooting star setting up this trade.
  • #5,511
  • Jul 18, 2012 5:41am Jul 18, 2012 5:41am
Quoting Vantage
Oh also forgot to mention that a 1hr lower high (after divergence) is also a decent set up in itself.
GOOD.. clue V..
  • #5,512
  • Jul 22, 2012 1:37am Jul 22, 2012 1:37am
After Fri's engulfing neg close, rsi below 50 level the W chart provides next target for eur.
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  • #5,513
  • Edited 9:17am Jul 22, 2012 1:41am | Edited 9:17am
GU had an engulfing neg close reject of a resistance level. 4hr divergence, TL break lower. So whilst the back of the TL may get tested (say around 5660-80) a D candle like that should follow through lower IMHO.
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  • #5,514
  • Jul 22, 2012 1:49am Jul 22, 2012 1:49am
Taking 1 small step further, if we get a sell at price extremes (see post 1) fine otherwise we would leave CT positive closes on 1hr and be waiting for 1hr neg closes. We'd specifically avoid weak LO and pre/early US pos closes as fake outs.
  • #5,515
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:23am Jul 23, 2012 8:23am
Mrs V wasn't in front of the computer this am.

We left the positive close candle pre/early US session as a CT fake out, often discussed here. 1hr turned neg again. 5 min lh below 25 psych level, little/no lower wick. Ran straight down to RN for +22.
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  • #5,516
  • Jul 24, 2012 8:23am Jul 24, 2012 8:23am
Unfortunately 2 losing trades for Mrs V today putting a bit of a dent in an otherwise good month. Even more unfortunate was this made her hesitant about trading the intra day higher low from 1hr, reject of 5500 which we had earlier identified. See arrow up.

No worries tomorrow's another day.
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  • #5,517
  • Jul 24, 2012 10:12pm Jul 24, 2012 10:12pm
have been a secret student of your style and a couple of other on FF (Ryanmcd, Eyevoltage and Niceguy) who follow a similar basic PA approach to trading, and has enable me to be proficient at reading price. your trading ideologies had help and saved me many time in my trading. pls my understanding of this method is we dont trade LO headfake and pre US open countertrend trade, what i need clarification on is how you determine weak 1hr pos/neg close to avoid these fakes. thanks for all your effort on this thread.
Let God be true, and every other man be a liar
  • #5,518
  • Jul 24, 2012 11:25pm Jul 24, 2012 11:25pm
Quoting lkdolzfx
have been a secret student of your style and a couple of other on FF (Ryanmcd, Eyevoltage and Niceguy) who follow a similar basic PA approach to trading, and has enable me to be proficient at reading price. your trading ideologies had help and saved me many time in my trading. pls my understanding of this method is we dont trade LO headfake and pre US open countertrend trade, what i need clarification on is how you determine weak 1hr pos/neg close to avoid these fakes. thanks for all your effort on this thread.
LO head fake - GU a candle with an engulfing close that just breaks the immediate range will normally have enough follow through for a scalp trade even CT.

LO head fake - EUR take care of small inside bars that cannot break range. We are anti taking eur CT trades.

Pre/early US - any candle that clearly cannot break range so inside bars, small dojis, small hammers/shooting stars. Basically looking for trend to resume. Have a look at the blog I think I've done a few posts on this recently.
  • #5,519
  • Jul 25, 2012 12:21am Jul 25, 2012 12:21am
Quoting Vantage
LO head fake - GU a candle with an engulfing close that just breaks the immediate range will normally have enough follow through for a scalp trade even CT.

LO head fake - EUR take care of small inside bars that cannot break range. We are anti taking eur CT trades.

Pre/early US - any candle that clearly cannot break range so inside bars, small dojis, small hammers/shooting stars. Basically looking for trend to resume. Have a look at the blog I think I've done a few posts on this recently.
Now that Mrs V is actually pressing the buttons for us there were some things she was not happy to do. So the focus came more to trend, we tweaked a few things. LO head fake being CT and the return to D trend was more likely after the head fake.

The realisation of the US open fake out came when lots of genuine 5 min hl/lh trades following a 1hr candle failed (LO was often written about, never saw US open fake out written about anywhere else??). Anyway once trade notes revealed a trend of unacceptable results in that time frame some more chart back testing showed the way. CT hl/lh pre/early US open was not a high prob trade (even if supported by a 1hr candle).

The focus now much more on resumption of trend and intra day 1hr hl/lh's.
  • #5,520
  • Jul 25, 2012 6:04am Jul 25, 2012 6:04am
will it work on small TF
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