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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #35,141
  • Edited 5:28pm Jul 24, 2012 5:14pm | Edited 5:28pm
Quoting Kingsw
Shorted EURUSD. Had to rescue the trade a bit. Exited with a small loss due to 1. Poor timing on entry, 2. exited too soon. Generally a good lesson for my first live trade

Dust myself off and look forward to a new battle.

Thanks, fti.

Regards,
King
Hi kingsw....sounds like an interesting day and probably much better than me.hope fully you learned from your expereince..

the market took the rod to me today...he he
increased my MM and then bottled out when price moved against me about 7 pips...

didnt dare rescue as too much of account would have been exposed plus i took trade based on some new knowledge i got over the weekend....my book the major works of RN elliott...

and i decided we were possibly in wave A of correction on euro and went long...

rigidity kills...plus that elliott wave stuff cant be grasped in a weekend, but it does appear that there are waves and corrections..but im no good at identifying what is what.

so i pulled plug on the trade....as it was more of a pre determined gamble...if price moved my way account woulud build quickly and if it didnt i would pull the plug quickly... a little scorpion of mine was allowed to play today...that scorpion is now been surpressed.

we live and learn ...so good trading.

ps im sticking to cable now...this fiber is just to dangerous....i just dont trust myself with it at the moment..im breakdancing with it...but it wants to tango.
  • #35,142
  • Jul 24, 2012 5:40pm Jul 24, 2012 5:40pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Gro,

You ok?...this is the clearest message you ever written....


seriously

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/25/bu...s.html?_r=1&hp

V
Sometimes I think that this is magic.
The way things are going, we might be at 1.18 next week or sooner;
so BB and his team decided that it is a good time to have a meeting,
scare the heck a those gambling on strong dollar.
You figure...the charts never lie.

Is BB and the FED doing Forex technical analysis?
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #35,143
  • Jul 24, 2012 8:19pm Jul 24, 2012 8:19pm
Quoting luSan
Sometimes I think that this is magic.
The way things are going, we might be at 1.18 next week or sooner;
so BB and his team decided that it is a good time to have a meeting,
scare the heck a those gambling on strong dollar.
You figure...the charts never lie.

Is BB and the FED doing Forex technical analysis?
reading TAF???

V
  • #35,144
  • Jul 24, 2012 8:29pm Jul 24, 2012 8:29pm
Quoting Gro
Be like water (still better to be like the wind-master Sun) has its firm principles.It is necessary to understand.You have to have and not discovered in the action.Otherwise you are in bad habits and reactions.
rgs
Pardon my ignorance, Gro, but who's wind-master Sun? Sun Tzu?

Thanks.

Regards,
King
  • #35,145
  • Jul 24, 2012 8:37pm Jul 24, 2012 8:37pm
Quoting eblip
Hi kingsw....sounds like an interesting day and probably much better than me.hope fully you learned from your expereince..

the market took the rod to me today...he he
increased my MM and then bottled out when price moved against me about 7 pips...

didnt dare rescue as too much of account would have been exposed plus i took trade based on some new knowledge i got over the weekend....my book the major works of RN elliott...

and i decided we were possibly in wave A of correction on euro and went long...

rigidity kills...plus that elliott...
Points taken. I just have a question about the 'scorpion'. It's about the negative nature of human being and how it affects our live and, obviously, trading. I would think the notion of emotion is included in this category.

Other than suppressing it, what other methods could be used to manage it so we could "be water" yet still remain conscious of the trading battlefield?

Thanks.

Regards,
King
  • #35,146
  • Jul 24, 2012 8:48pm Jul 24, 2012 8:48pm
Quoting Kingsw
Pardon my ignorance, Gro, but who's wind-master Sun? Sun Tzu?

Thanks.

Regards,
King
how much thread have u read?


V
  • #35,147
  • Jul 24, 2012 8:56pm Jul 24, 2012 8:56pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
how much thread have u read?


V
Looks like I have answered my own question.

Regards,
King
  • #35,148
  • Jul 24, 2012 9:05pm Jul 24, 2012 9:05pm
Righteous Brothers - You've Lost That Lovin' Feeling

Inserted Video



V
  • #35,149
  • Jul 24, 2012 9:13pm Jul 24, 2012 9:13pm
Quoting Kingsw
Points taken. I just have a question about the 'scorpion'. It's about the negative nature of human being and how it affects our live and, obviously, trading. I would think the notion of emotion is included in this category.

Other than suppressing it, what other methods could be used to manage it so we could "be water" yet still remain conscious of the trading battlefield?

Thanks.

Regards,
King
My friend, this is so easy.
Look at the chart.
All is in calm.
Then you decide to buy.
You buy.
Then at that moment....
your mindset takes over...
PA moves against you 10 pips.
The calm...where is the calm?..
oh my god...i am losing...how much?
I h...it will come back...nope...it does not ...
now I am losing 40 pips...darn...now what...
let me get the heck out of here...
I close the trade...
then as soon as you close PA returns to your BE point...
that it...you scream ..."bloody murder"...
if the trader is in very high leverage...a margin call...
So PA becomes a real teacher,
those that do not learn the lesson,
move on with their lives.

what to do?
Everybody is different.
drop your indicators
and face the charts
which is facing the dragons.
In facing the dragons,
we learn their lessons
and those lessons will carry on.
Only the strong survives,
the rest...are gone.
Cheers,

Edit.: I am not bullshiting...these dragons and scorpion things are not BS. They are real...trading is mostly mindset...it is written more than 100 times in this thread. Gosh...I better go to bed. CU.

One more thing...I have the feeling that to be a good trader it takes to be as a child that does not know what is coming but which it is open to an ever coming NOW.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #35,150
  • Jul 24, 2012 9:17pm Jul 24, 2012 9:17pm
Quoting luSan
My friend, this is so easy.
Look at the chart.
All is in calm.
Then you decide to buy.
You buy.
Then at that moment....
your mindset takes over...
PA moves against you 10 pips.
The calm...where is the calm?..
oh my god...i am losing...how much?
I h...it will come back...nope...it does not ...
now I am losing 40 pips...darn...now what...
let me get the heck out of here...
I close the trade...
then as soon as you close PA returns to your BE point...
that it...you scream ..."bloody murder"...
if the trader is in very high leverage...a...
@Kingsw
shortcut version,

if a trade is taking a smile away from you...something is not right.....

Keep a smile when you trade when u r start loosing it...Bingo!!!

V
  • #35,151
  • Jul 24, 2012 9:21pm Jul 24, 2012 9:21pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
@Kingsw
shortcut version,

if a trade is taking a smile away from you...something is not right.....

Keep a smile when you trade when u r start loosing it...Bingo!!!

V
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #35,152
  • Jul 24, 2012 9:22pm Jul 24, 2012 9:22pm
Quoting luSan
right now aussie is kinda close to taking my smile away



V
  • #35,153
  • Jul 24, 2012 10:56pm Jul 24, 2012 10:56pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
Gro,

You ok?...this is the clearest message you ever written....


seriously

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/25/bu...s.html?_r=1&hp

V
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  • #35,154
  • Edited 11:40pm Jul 24, 2012 11:07pm | Edited 11:40pm
Quoting august21
Brief background. Retired (now age 50), current expenses supported by past saving - traded mainly Sg stock but started to be interested in forex in 2007, when Sg stocks went into hybernation..zzz. Went thru' some training and thot I was equiped. Started with $5K , and traded GJ - back then, I was not aware it was a beast (still is)..I thot I could make quick money - mostly long . The day I traded GJ, is the day it started it's slide. July 2007.( my luck ?!) . Evaporated the $5k. Back to studies, evaluation and stuff. Thot I was smart,..went in...
the orange is full for squeezing again

ok you are such kind caring personality.

ok here goes.

1. 1st about your neighbour.
Life is a journey, and sometimes, there is storms.
Is a blessing have peeps like you who think of others.
BUT
beaware.
she is going thru a BIG change.
with limited resources and a lot to care for.
so her mindset would probably be not so robust.
Forex had been the biggest challange in my life.
need the strongest mind and steadyness analyse and make the right decisions.
I won't send emotionally tramatised soldiers into battlegrounds.
Chances is slim they will return.
Just a general opinion without actual sightings, just my opinion.
Question is, forex is a very naughty baby, can she afford babysit this mischevious?

2. About your experiences.
You failed twice. Thst ok, we can learn heaps from failure.
If you haven't realised, I try make some points for you think about.

Trading forex is different from investing in equities.

When investing in equities, one is taking a confidence in the management of a business.
That they know their business and have a business model that will keep firm profitable.
And that they will share the profits with you.

Trading forex, is managing your own business.
Your inventory is your capital.
Then you start stocking up with the merchandise that you think has value.
For the business to be profitable, you need hold to that which sells and stay away from those that has no marketability.
But most important of all, you inventory and stockpile needs keep moving.
In business is called turnover.
So you need sell valuables that you have to realise profits and reload with merchandise to replenish your stockpile of merchandise.

Euro/USD example.
when you selling euros, you stocking up with usd.
when you buying euros you selling your usd.

apart from prices profits you have small perks called interest rate.
when you long the higher rates currency you get some interest daily.
if you long the lower interest rate currency you need pay interest.

This the business.

Forex time frame.

In forex the markets are very fast.
the less liquid markets moves faster, and command higer spreaads.
the more liquid markets have very tigh spreads and allows you buyin or out easyily.
This the fastest market of commodies known to man, because the markets are readily available and the inventory is electronic figs.
so there is little carry cost, other than the interest rates differentials.

You need decide what you participation of this trades will be like.
to Hold inventories for long periods of time requires you have lots of capital and resources.
for those with little capital and pain tresholds, it is not adviced that you take the billionaires on.

Your choice is how you want manage your business.

Any thoughts?

regards
  • #35,155
  • Edited 11:49pm Jul 24, 2012 11:34pm | Edited 11:49pm
Quoting eblip
Hi kingsw....sounds like an interesting day and probably much better than me.hope fully you learned from your expereince..

the market took the rod to me today...he he
increased my MM and then bottled out when price moved against me about 7 pips...

didnt dare rescue as too much of account would have been exposed plus i took trade based on some new knowledge i got over the weekend....my book the major works of RN elliott...

and i decided we were possibly in wave A of correction on euro and went long...

rigidity kills...plus that elliott...
7.0 pips and decision making?
7 pips would just be your broker spreads and some price slippage( blotter shading).
shift the decimal point 1 space to right please.

Try not lose money when nothings moved.


regards
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  • #35,156
  • Jul 25, 2012 12:00am Jul 25, 2012 12:00am
Quoting fti
it took me a while to clear my eyes to see what GRO wrote
  • #35,157
  • Jul 25, 2012 12:05am Jul 25, 2012 12:05am
Quoting indianguyinny24
Righteous Brothers - You've Lost That Lovin' Feeling

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m0Zinw1uDJo


V

naughty, good song.
you want quality or quantity?

and no be naughtier and ask both.
not possible eat it and have cake too. unless have many confectioneries.

oh boy what am i telling these days.
soon surely classified sick.

regards
  • #35,158
  • Jul 25, 2012 12:07am Jul 25, 2012 12:07am
Quoting fti

naughty.
you want quality or quantity?

regards
love this song from top gun time
  • #35,159
  • Jul 25, 2012 12:14am Jul 25, 2012 12:14am
http://www.upgradereality.com/be-formless-be-water/

I feel free
  • #35,160
  • Jul 25, 2012 12:15am Jul 25, 2012 12:15am
Quoting Kingsw
http://www.upgradereality.com/be-formless-be-water/

I feel free
Inserted Video


V
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