Pure Risk to reward trade System - 1 to 3- Totally random entries | Page 3 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

50% win ratio, 1:1 sl tp, and random entries 127 replies

Coin tossing and random entries 44 replies

How to Pyramid Entries to Increase Initial Risk/Reward 10-fold 64 replies

Expert Advisor with random entries 3 replies

Random entries discussion... 7 replies

Attachments: Pure Risk to reward trade System - 1 to 3- Totally random entries
Exit Attachments

Pure Risk to reward trade System - 1 to 3- Totally random entries

  • #41
  • Jul 22, 2012 9:51pm Jul 22, 2012 9:51pm
Quoting Dreamliner
Can you please quote the exact words where he mentioned anything about looking at charts or data? I have only read where he would use the dice. Where did you read otherwise?
So does that satisfy you for now? If not, please proceed with your rebuttal.

I would like to add; he shorted Aussie

Does that really seem like a lucky roll of the dice? If so, then randomness does wondrous things.

Wouldn't you agree? Or are you just a dunce ?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #42
  • Jul 22, 2012 10:09pm Jul 22, 2012 10:09pm
Since you've now quoted the "dunce" comment 4 times, it must have hit home with you somehow.

I just honestly can't understand why you can't get "random" out of rolling dice. He went short on Aussie because the dice he rolled came up "short." What is it about that you can't seem to quite comprehend?

Quoting Slim Buffett
So does that satisfy you for now? If not, please proceed with your rebuttal.

I would like to add; he shorted Aussie

Does that really seem like a lucky roll of the dice? If so, then randomness does wondrous things.

Wouldn't you agree? Or are you just a dunce ?
  • #43
  • Jul 23, 2012 1:20am Jul 23, 2012 1:20am
Hi TEB63,

nice that you started this kind of experiment.

But you need to compare results to say that RM & MM does trade profitable with no-edged system vs. edge system in the same time.

my proposal will be: Add one MA like 50 or 100 in the 1h chart.

Roll the 1st dice for the pair like you do.
then roll the 2nd dice for direction and set an order in the direction what the dice told you.
for the comparison open an order in the same pair but with direction of MA in this pair. above long / below short with the same set of TP and SL(3:1).

after a month you have equal amount of orders to compare the random chart entries and the MA biased entries, but this say nothing, because in a trending month, the MA system could gain better than random and in ranging market both could gain the same. it depents how big the swings are.

this is one example of many. you could do this instead with another indicator or any set of indicators. important is, that you have equal amount of orders and set them at the same time like your random orders.

i already know what the results will be, but interesting to see what happens.

Kind Regards

Mediator
  • #44
  • Jul 23, 2012 1:26am Jul 23, 2012 1:26am
Paulus is already doing a similar thing with his ridiculous 1 trade a day 3:1 RR or bust method. His entries may as well be random as well as most of the threads on FF. I swear some of you thread starters are employed by dodgy brokers. At least you are taking a more 'academic' approach. Be careful of those 'black swans'.
  • #45
  • Jul 23, 2012 2:34am Jul 23, 2012 2:34am
Quoting Dreamliner
I would suggest that all entries are random. If you think that because the market has been going up that it will continue going up, therefore your entry is not random, just watch when you enter and it goes down 50% of the time.

I've come to conclude that all entries are random, it is just that this thread started has titled it so.
I can't agree with you on that point. I firmly believe that through technical analysis you can increase the probability of your entry above 50%. We can discuss just how much your probability can be raised above the 50% level but I'm sure it certainly is. One problem with this sort of discussion is the terms of reference. A 50% chance of what happening? That the market will move one way before it moves another? By how much and over what time period?

I am open minded enough to express an interest in the outcome of this thread and it's method but I haven't changed my mind yet. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
  • #46
  • Jul 23, 2012 2:50am Jul 23, 2012 2:50am
Quoting Dreamliner
This is as simple as can be, and I'm truly at a loss as to why you can't grasp it.
The bloke is an idiot and has been on my ignore list for a while, I wouldn't waste your time.
  • #47
  • Jul 23, 2012 2:57am Jul 23, 2012 2:57am
Quoting California
With so many dollar-oriented pairs, you have a dollar bias. If the dollar trends strongly over the next few months, this will bias your result. I would think that using EU, AJ, and GC would make it more objective.

It has been said that a system with no edge can be made profitable through sound MM. This appears to be corroborated by Ronald Raygun's profile:

***

[i]Ignore all that hype for various systems. Remember--for...
I don't think the pairs matter because half the time you will be trading against the trend anyway so it doesn't matter if the usd does trend.
  • #48
  • Jul 23, 2012 6:11am Jul 23, 2012 6:11am
Quoting California
With so many dollar-oriented pairs, you have a dollar bias. If the dollar trends strongly over the next few months, this will bias your result. I would think that using EU, AJ, and GC would make it more objective.

It has been said that a system with no edge can be made profitable through sound MM. This appears to be corroborated by Ronald Raygun's profile:

***

[i]Ignore all that hype for various systems. Remember--for...

The USD - is just the biggest cross and so the most likely not to be munipulated esp. in the summer
again its 50% a roll if a roll will be (+) or (-) dollar

TEB
  • #49
  • Edited 6:38am Jul 23, 2012 6:16am | Edited 6:38am
Quoting Mediator
Hi TEB63,

nice that you started this kind of experiment.

But you need to compare results to say that RM & MM does trade profitable with no-edged system vs. edge system in the same time.

my proposal will be: Add one MA like 50 or 100 in the 1h chart.

Roll the 1st dice for the pair like you do.
then roll the 2nd dice for direction and set an order in the direction what the dice told you.
for the comparison open an order in the same pair but with direction of MA in this pair. above long / below short with the same set of TP and SL(3:1).

after...

you are right of corse
I had planned that for a 2nd set of 2 weeks
but I think this may make money lets see
  • #50
  • Jul 23, 2012 6:35am Jul 23, 2012 6:35am
Trade 2 Monday July 23 7:30 Am Audusd- short -1.0281

2nd trade was a 4 and a 5 on the dice

  • #51
  • Jul 23, 2012 11:19am Jul 23, 2012 11:19am
Quoting Mediator
Hi TEB63,

nice that you started this kind of experiment.

But you need to compare results to say that RM & MM does trade profitable with no-edged system vs. edge system in the same time...........


.......i already know what the results will be, but interesting to see what happens.

Kind Regards

Mediator
you said "you know the results will be ..."

what do you think they will be?
  • #52
  • Jul 23, 2012 7:13pm Jul 23, 2012 7:13pm
Trade 3 Monday July 23 8:11 Pm Eurusd –short 1.2128

Dice roll was a 1 and a 6 on the dice

  • #53
  • Jul 23, 2012 7:18pm Jul 23, 2012 7:18pm
Any results yet?

Quoting TEB63
Trade 3 Monday July 23 8:11 Pm Eurusd –short 1.2128

Dice roll was a 1 and a 6 on the dice

  • #54
  • Jul 23, 2012 7:20pm Jul 23, 2012 7:20pm
Thanks Hugh, I was beginning to think I was missing something about random. Glad to know he was just a french fry short of a happy meal.

Quoting Hugh Briss
The bloke is an idiot and has been on my ignore list for a while, I wouldn't waste your time.
  • #55
  • Jul 23, 2012 7:26pm Jul 23, 2012 7:26pm
Quoting Dreamliner
Any results yet?

no not yet
the 1st trade is at 57 pips
the 2nd trade is at 2 pips
the 3rd trade is 1 pips

I do not like the way this has gone so far all 3 trades are basically the same.
I would have like some balance we will see the balance over the 20 trades
  • #56
  • Jul 23, 2012 8:57pm Jul 23, 2012 8:57pm
I think you need to test this for a month or more. Let time/diversification kick in.

Quoting TEB63
no not yet
the 1st trade is at 57 pips
the 2nd trade is at 2 pips
the 3rd trade is 1 pips

I do not like the way this has gone so far all 3 trades are basically the same.
I would have like some balance we will see the balance over the 20 trades
  • #57
  • Jul 23, 2012 9:23pm Jul 23, 2012 9:23pm
Quoting Dreamliner
I think you need to test this for a month or more. Let time/diversification kick in.
why I think will be interesting as it is
  • #58
  • Jul 24, 2012 6:04am Jul 24, 2012 6:04am
Trade 4 Tuesday July 24, 6:55 Am Usdchf –Short 0.9932

dice rolls where 1 and 3

I could not do eurusd long as that would killed another trade.
So I will use usdchf
  • #59
  • Jul 24, 2012 7:35pm Jul 24, 2012 7:35pm
Trade 5 Tuesday July 24, 8:31 pm gbpusd –Short 1.5496

dice rolls where 6 and 6
  • #60
  • Jul 25, 2012 6:09am Jul 25, 2012 6:09am
Trade 6 Wed July 25, 7:05 am Audusd –Short 1.0292

dice rolls where 4 and 5
0 traders viewing now