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Pure Risk to reward trade System - 1 to 3- Totally random entries

  • #21
  • Jul 22, 2012 7:57pm Jul 22, 2012 7:57pm
OK I've been a bit confused by your posts. For some reason you think that rolling a dice is not random. Can you explain why this is not random?

Quoting Slim Buffett
So if this is true then you're developing a system regarding the roll of the dice and forex trading.

Hardly random !

Don't think about it bro'

I think it's great (interesting) and I'll butt out
  • #22
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:01pm Jul 22, 2012 8:01pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
So if this is true then you're developing a system regarding the roll of the dice and forex trading.

Hardly random !

Don't think about it bro'

I think it's great (interesting) and I'll butt out

Hi Slim

It’s not about random or dice
It’s about the important of RRR and MM
And I am trying to show they are the king in the forex
and systems are a distant 3rd.

If you have the greatest system in the world but no RRR or MM you will lose all your money
I want to see if we have just good RRR and just average MM
and no system can we still make money in the FX

Now if we added a good system then we should make a LOT MORE MONEY of coarse.
I think most FXer spend all their time on systems when they should get to know RRR and MM

Please feel free to add – (and it might not work- because of the slowness of the summer and the craziness of world events)


TEB
  • #23
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:08pm Jul 22, 2012 8:08pm
Quoting Dreamliner
OK I've been a bit confused by your posts. For some reason you think that rolling a dice is not random. Can you explain why this is not random?
My hesitance was not whether the roll of a dice was random but if the actual trade was random.
So if he takes a random trade, indeed what do dice have to do with it in the first place?

As I previously stated, why not just close all charts and never look at economic data? TEB stated that he did not want to do this.

So the question again arises; is it truly a random trade?
TEB introduced "dice talk" but has yet to explain why he would use them in the first place.

A random entry is "RANDOM', no dice, no crystal ball. no economic data.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #24
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:16pm Jul 22, 2012 8:16pm
Wow, either you're brilliant and understand something far deeper about "chance" and "random" related to dice rolling, or a dunce that doesn't get basic randomness. Assuming you are the former, it is very clear what TEB wants to do with the dice. I suggest you re-read the first post. He rolls the dice to determine which pair, then rolls again to determine which direction. This is as simple as can be, and I'm truly at a loss as to why you can't grasp it.

Quoting Slim Buffett
My hesitance was not whether the roll of a dice was random but if the actual trade was random.
So if he takes a random trade, indeed what do dice have to do with it in the first place?

As I previously stated, why not just close all charts and never look at economic data? TEB stated that he did not want to do this.

So the question again arises; is it truly a random trade?
TEB introduced "dice talk" but has yet to explain why he would use them in the first place.

A random entry is "RANDOM', no dice, no crystal ball. no economic data....
  • #25
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:18pm Jul 22, 2012 8:18pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
My hesitance was not whether the roll of a dice was random but if the actual trade was random.
So if he takes a random trade, indeed what do dice have to do with it in the first place?

As I previously stated, why not just close all charts and never look at economic data? TEB stated that he did not want to do this.

So the question again arises; is it truly a random trade?
TEB introduced "dice talk" but has yet to explain why he would use them in the first place.

A random entry is "RANDOM', no dice, no crystal ball. no economic data.

ok
1. I am not using charts at all
2. I am not looking at economic data
3. I am using the dice because I thought it was the best way to add "random"

the 1st die is to pick the pair (as started in 1st post)
the 2nd die is to pick the buy or sell (as started in 1st post)

how would you make a random entry - please tell me a better way
I think I would cheat other wise - as I have thoughts on the pairs
and they would cloud my trades.

I want to have totally random calls. again I know I will lose a lot of trades
the question is can RRR and MM over come this

TEB
  • #26
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:26pm Jul 22, 2012 8:26pm
Quoting Dreamliner
or a dunce that doesn't get basic randomness.
That would about cover it.

I would suggest that his "nothing" (randomness) is based on "something" (roll of the dice) and so is not random. I suggest that "something" that is based on something else is not random. If it were random it could have no basis.

As for dice (and cards) the pro's know what the odds are. It might be a random toss or random deal.

Maybe you can decipher the rest.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #27
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:27pm Jul 22, 2012 8:27pm
i suggest using only 1 pair.

the more pairs you have, the less likely it will produce a consistant result due to the fact that different pairs move differently. If you don't use 1 pair only, you will need a much larger sample size to get a more normal distribution. Otherwise, the result might come out skewed if you ended up doing 10 audusd and only 2 eurusd.

Also, you can always make it more random by throwing 2 dice.
  • #28
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:32pm Jul 22, 2012 8:32pm
Quoting thelws

Also, you can always make it more random by throwing 2 dice.

Still, if you trade according to the roll of dice it isn't random, it's a system?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #29
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:37pm Jul 22, 2012 8:37pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
That would about cover it.

I would suggest that his "nothing" (randomness) is based on "something" (roll of the dice) and so is not random. I suggest that "something" that is based on something else is not random. If it were random it could have no basis.

As for dice (and cards) the pro's know what the odds are. It might be a random toss or random deal.

Maybe you can decipher the rest.

Ok but I am not using the die/dice for odds - or would I know how to?
No one outcome is better than another as far as dice goes.

The pick may lead to a win or a lose in pips -but not in the pick itself.

Every possible outcome (and there are 6) all have the same odds right?
If you can give a better way to add "RANDOM" please tell other wise
lets move on- the system is about RRR and MM


TEB
  • #30
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:42pm Jul 22, 2012 8:42pm
Quoting thelws
i suggest using only 1 pair.

the more pairs you have, the less likely it will produce a consistant result due to the fact that different pairs move differently. If you don't use 1 pair only, you will need a much larger sample size to get a more normal distribution. Otherwise, the result might come out skewed if you ended up doing 10 audusd and only 2 eurusd.

Also, you can always make it more random by throwing 2 dice.

but that would still be random-
again the point is about MM and RRR
The dice are just away to get in

one pair would not be random
1. In the FX it would not be possible as you can not buy and sell them at the same time.
2. also is one pair starts to act nuts (ie the eur - the chf the jpy)
it would kill the hole thing

  • #31
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:47pm Jul 22, 2012 8:47pm
Quoting thelws
i suggest using only 1 pair.

the more pairs you have, the less likely it will produce a consistant result due to the fact that different pairs move differently. If you don't use 1 pair only, you will need a much larger sample size to get a more normal distribution. Otherwise, the result might come out skewed if you ended up doing 10 audusd and only 2 eurusd.

Also, you can always make it more random by throwing 2 dice.

how can it be more random
Die 1 - 1/3 of the time it will come up Eurusd, Audusd and pound - each
Die 2 - 1/2 of the time it will come up buy or sell
that is as random as it can get
again there are 6 possible out comes - all have an equal chance with each set of rolls -- right
% reset with each roll

TEB
  • #32
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:51pm Jul 22, 2012 8:51pm
Quoting TEB63
Ok but I am not using the die/dice for odds - or would I know how to?
No one outcome is better than another as far as dice goes.

The pick may lead to a win or a lose in pips -but not in the pick itself.

Every possible outcome (and there are 6) all have the same odds right?
If you can give a better way to add "RANDOM" please tell other wise
[color=black][font=Verdana]lets...
"lets move on- the system is about RRR and MM"

first, I most assuredly agree.

"Every possible outcome (and there are 6) all have the same odds right?"

And there are those who know how to exploit probabilities.

If you can give a better way to add "RANDOM" please tell other wise"

I already suggested that you close all charts and never look at economic data.
to which you did not agree.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #33
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:55pm Jul 22, 2012 8:55pm
Quoting Dreamliner
, or a dunce
And we're going to have a lot of fun together.

I can't wait.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #34
  • Jul 22, 2012 8:56pm Jul 22, 2012 8:56pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
"lets move on- the system is about RRR and MM"

first, I most assuredly agree.

"Every possible outcome (and there are 6) all have the same odds right?"

And there are those who know how to exploit probabilities.

If you can give a better way to add "RANDOM" please tell other wise"

I already suggested that you close all charts and never look at economic data.
to which you did not agree.

Ok - please read
1. I am not looking at charts
2. I am not looking at economic data
  • #35
  • Jul 22, 2012 9:06pm Jul 22, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting TEB63
Ok - please read
1. I am not looking at charts
2. I am not looking at economic data
OK. I got that. Glad you finally made up your mind.

I think it's great.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #36
  • Jul 22, 2012 9:11pm Jul 22, 2012 9:11pm
With so many dollar-oriented pairs, you have a dollar bias. If the dollar trends strongly over the next few months, this will bias your result. I would think that using EU, AJ, and GC would make it more objective.

It has been said that a system with no edge can be made profitable through sound MM. This appears to be corroborated by Ronald Raygun's profile:

***

Ignore all that hype for various systems. Remember--for now--this one fundamental rule: The exit is more important than the entry.

With that in mind, I want you to do the following on a demo account:

1) Toss a coin: Heads long, Tails short
2) Manage the trade as you see fit. If you think the trade is bad, exit.
3) When you exit a trade, go back to step 1.

If you can double your account in less than 50 flips, I consider you a good enough trader to go live. I personally average between 20 and 30 flips, and I do it once a week, on the weekends, trading simulated data.

Simulator: (http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...02008%208:18pm)


Try it. It helps, LOADS.
  • #37
  • Jul 22, 2012 9:16pm Jul 22, 2012 9:16pm
Quoting Dreamliner
or a dunce that doesn't get basic randomness.
Now comes clarity.

Quoting TEB63
Ok - please read
1. I am not looking at charts
2. I am not looking at economic data
Even though that isn't exactly what was said at the beginning.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #38
  • Jul 22, 2012 9:20pm Jul 22, 2012 9:20pm
Can you please quote the exact words where he mentioned anything about looking at charts or data? I have only read where he would use the dice. Where did you read otherwise?

Quoting Slim Buffett
Now comes clarity.



Even though that isn't exactly what was said at the beginning.
  • #39
  • Jul 22, 2012 9:32pm Jul 22, 2012 9:32pm
Quoting Dreamliner
Can you please quote the exact words where he mentioned anything about looking at charts or data? I have only read where he would use the dice. Where did you read otherwise?
Quoting TEB63

I did play with the idea of staying way from economic data, but in the end I choice not to.

We could start there.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #40
  • Jul 22, 2012 9:41pm Jul 22, 2012 9:41pm
I suppose we could add;

"

Now if we added a good system then we should make a LOT MORE MONEY of coarse.
I think most FXer spend all their time on systems when they should get to know RRR and MM"

So is it really about randomness or building a system, (about RRR and MM) whatever it may be ?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
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