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Pure Risk to reward trade System - 1 to 3- Totally random entries

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Aug 3, 2012 12:58pm Jul 21, 2012 9:19pm | Edited Aug 3, 2012 12:58pm
Pure Risk to Reward trade System - 1 to 3- Totally random entries

I opened an Oanda Demo – $100,000 cad
I will put two trades on a day for 10 days - So I will put on 20 trades
One trade before 8 am in the morning (Monday morning to Friday morning)
One trade after 8 pm at night (Sunday night to Thursday night)
I will put on 1% each trade - ( )
Going to set and forget the trades until it wins or loses.

Find a trade
A. Find the pair. Use a die
1 or 2 is eurusd if used and will kill a trade use usdchf (reverse)
3 or 4 audusd if used and will kill a trade use nzdusd
5 or 6 gpbusd if used and will kill a trade use usdcad (reverse)
B. To buy or sell. Use a die
1, 2 or 3 buy
4, 5 or 6 sell

Target 158 pips (the 8 pips are to cover the spreads on the entries average 2 pips a trade)
Stop loss 50 pips
I need a 25% win rate to break even- anything more would be a win
– I think I will get better then 33% win rate so I should make pips.


The power of RRR at 3 proffit target to 1 stop lose.... if you win % out of 20 trades
number of winning trades x 158 = number of pips
number of losing trades x 50 = number of pips
= total pips – 40 pips for spread
= total pips after spread

25% win - 5 out of 20
5 x 158 = 790
15 x 50 = 750
= 40 pips – 40 pips for spread is
= 0 pips

33% win - 6 out of 20
6 x158 = 948
14 x50 = 700
= 248 pips – 40 pips for spread is
= 208 pips

40% win - 8 out of 20
8 x 158 = 1264
12x 50 =600
= 664 pips – 40 pips for spread is
= 624 pips

50% win - 10 out of 20
10 x 158 = 1580
10x 50 =500
= 1080 pips – 40 pips for spread is
= 1040 pips


Market is wild but it is also summer slow so not sure what will happen
I will post every time I put on a trade-



TRADES
Trade 1 Sun July 22 8:26 Pm - Audusd- short 1.0336 (Dice rolls 4 and 6)
***** (this should have been a winner at one time it was 10pips beyond the target- but that is 4X
Trade 2 Mon July 23 7:30 Am Audusd- short 1.0281 (Dice rolls 4 and 5)
Trade 3 Mon July 23 8:11 Pm Eurusd –short 1.2128 (Dice rolls 1 and 6)
Trade 4 Tues July 24 6:55 Am Usdchf –short 0.9932 (Dice rolls 1 and 3)
Trade 5 Tues July 24 8:31 Pm Gbpusd–short 1.5496 (Dice rolls 6 and 6)
Trade 6 Wed July 25 7:05 Am Audusd –Short 1.0292(Dice rolls 4 and 6)
Trade 7 Wed July 25, 9:05 Pm gbpusd –long 1.5922 (Dice rolls 6 and 2)
Trade 8 Thru July 26, 7:55 Am gbpusd –long 1.5648(Dice rolls 6 and 2)
Trade 9 Thru July 26, 10:04 pm Audusd sell 1.0401 (dice rolls 4 and 4)
Trade 10 Fri July 27, 6:55 Am Eurusd Buy 1.2288 (dice rolls 2 and 1)
Trade 11 Sun July 29, 8:33 Am UsdCad Buy 1.0046 (dice rolls 3 and 5)
Trade 12 Mon July 30, 7:58 Am Audusd sell 1.0495 (dice rolls 3 and 4)
Trade 13 Mon July 30, 9:58 pm Gpbusd buy 1.5725 (dice rolls 6 and 3)
Trade 14 tue July 31, 7:40 am eurusd sell 1.2275 (dice rolls 1 and 6)
Trade 15 tue July 31, 9:29 pm eurusd sell 1.2281(dice rolls 2 and 6)
Trade 16 Wed Aug 1, 7:55 am Audusd sell 1.0521 (dice rolls 4 and 5)
Trade 17 Wed Aug 1, 8:31 pm gbpusd sell 1.5532 (dice rolls 6 and 5
Trade 18 thru Aug 2, 7:31 am Audusd sell 1.0518 (dice rolls 3 and 5)
Trade 19 Thru Aug 2, 9:19 pm gbpusd sell 1.5515 (dice rolls 6 and 5)
Trade 20 Fri Aug 3, 6:03 am eurusd sell 1.2238 (dice rolls 1 and 5)

As my son would say epic failure lol
  • #2
  • Jul 22, 2012 4:22am Jul 22, 2012 4:22am
Precisely but I will also try looking for it and will have an update so that I can have a new and fresh idea about it.
  • #3
  • Jul 22, 2012 11:40am Jul 22, 2012 11:40am
Fredd, this post make absolutely no sense at all. Care to try again?

Quoting Fredd
Precisely but I will also try looking for it and will have an update so that I can have a new and fresh idea about it.
  • #4
  • Jul 22, 2012 11:50am Jul 22, 2012 11:50am
TEB, I believe you have a very strong chance of success with this method, just as much or maybe more as those who clutter their charts with indicators. I'll be following with interest.

Quoting TEB63
Pure Risk to Reward trade System - 1 to 3- Totally random entries

I opened an Oanda Demo – $100,000 cad
I will put two trades on a day for 10 days - So I will put on 20 trades
One trade before 8 am in the morning (Monday morning to Friday morning)
One trade after 8 pm at night (Sunday night to Thursday night)
[font=Calibri][size=3]I...
  • #5
  • Jul 22, 2012 2:34pm Jul 22, 2012 2:34pm
Quoting TEB63
Pure Risk to Reward trade System - 1 to 3- Totally random entries

I opened an Oanda Demo – $100,000 cad
I will put two trades on a day for 10 days - So I will put on 20 trades
One trade before 8 am in the morning (Monday morning to Friday morning)
One trade after 8 pm at night (Sunday night to Thursday night)
[font=Calibri][size=3]I...
if they're totally random entries what are you hoping to learn...
tradewith60
  • #6
  • Jul 22, 2012 2:42pm Jul 22, 2012 2:42pm
Quoting 60minuteman
if they're totally random entries what are you hoping to learn...
He believes that random entries with a fixed SL and TP will generate a profit.

I have no idea where he got that idea. It won't work over the long haul. It won't work regardless how he handles the SL and TP.
  • #7
  • Jul 22, 2012 3:01pm Jul 22, 2012 3:01pm
Quoting billbss
He believes that random entries with a fixed SL and TP will generate a profit.

I have no idea where he got that idea. It won't work over the long haul. It won't work regardless how he handles the SL and TP.
It's an interesting idea but I'm with you, I don't think it will work in the long term.
  • #8
  • Jul 22, 2012 3:17pm Jul 22, 2012 3:17pm
and even if it did work... how you gonna feel when it's a real 100k on the line...
tradewith60
  • #9
  • Jul 22, 2012 3:18pm Jul 22, 2012 3:18pm
I would suggest that all entries are random. If you think that because the market has been going up that it will continue going up, therefore your entry is not random, just watch when you enter and it goes down 50% of the time.

I've come to conclude that all entries are random, it is just that this thread started has titled it so.

Quoting Hugh Briss
It's an interesting idea but I'm with you, I don't think it will work in the long term.
  • #10
  • Jul 22, 2012 4:45pm Jul 22, 2012 4:45pm
Quoting billbss
He believes that random entries with a fixed SL and TP will generate a profit.

I have no idea where he got that idea. It won't work over the long haul. It won't work regardless how he handles the SL and TP.
Hi Billbss

Lets see if it works.

The point I am tring to show is
1. That trading system are not meaningless
2. but much less important then RRR and MM

RRR of 3 to 1 may be to high in the summer
where we have more ranges.

I do think I will in the end make pips
but I might be wrong


TEB63
  • #11
  • Jul 22, 2012 4:48pm Jul 22, 2012 4:48pm
Quoting TEB63
Pure Risk to Reward trade System - 1 to 3- Totally random entries
I think this is really interesting. However;

Why not trade according to the best expectations of whatever method you use? Would this or would it not (as you see it) increase your chance of it being a viable method?

And, as you've been trading for a while will your entries truly be random? It seems that you would have by now, established some sort of bias as to direction. If so the trades would not be random.

I would offer that the only way to have random entries may be to close all charts and never look at any economic data. Is this what you are doing?

Just wondering. I may ponder my own version....... someday.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #12
  • Jul 22, 2012 4:53pm Jul 22, 2012 4:53pm
Quoting 60minuteman
and even if it did work... how you gonna feel when it's a real 100k on the line...

I think this system the way it is, is better
then 95% of the system on here FF
and better then 85% of the systems and bots out there you can buy

I do think we can make a system with better odds
and we could do better RRR & MM
ie use the swings rather then a fixed SL and PT .

but again see what happens

TEB
  • #13
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:01pm Jul 22, 2012 5:01pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
I think this is really interesting. However;

Why not trade according to the best expectations of whatever method you use? Would this or would it not (as you see it) increase your chance of it being a viable method?

And, as you've been trading for a while will your entries truly be random? It seems that you would have by now, established some sort of bias as to direction. If so the trades would not be random.

I would offer that the only way to have random entries may be to close all charts and never look at any economic data. Is this what you...


yes totally random entries
I am literally going to roll the dice for pair and direction

I did play with the idea of staying way from economic data, but in the end I choice not to.
I want to see is 3 to 1 with random entries will make money ... I think it will but I might be wrong

  • #14
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:08pm Jul 22, 2012 5:08pm
Quoting TEB63
yes totally random entries
I am literally going to roll the dice for pair and direction

I did play with the idea of staying way from economic data, but in the end I choice not to.
I want to see is 3 to 1 with random entries will make money ... I think it will but I might be wrong
As I said, it should be interesting. (I still have this tiny question as to whether entries are truly random) but it doesn't matter.

and

Best of Luck !
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #15
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:11pm Jul 22, 2012 5:11pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
As I said, it should be interesting. (I still have this tiny question as to whether entries are truly random) but it doesn't matter.

and

Best of Luck !

how can I make them more random then using dice?
  • #16
  • Jul 22, 2012 5:38pm Jul 22, 2012 5:38pm
Quoting TEB63
how can I make them more random then using dice?
You got me there.
So some sort of plan equals sell/buy. Snake eyes equals sell, deuces equal trade something else, sixes are buy ????

idk


but it must be good
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #17
  • Jul 22, 2012 7:28pm Jul 22, 2012 7:28pm
Trade 1 Sunday July 22 8:26 Pm - Audusd- short 1.0336

  • #18
  • Jul 22, 2012 7:31pm Jul 22, 2012 7:31pm
Quoting TEB63
Trade 1 Sunday July 22 8:26 Pm - Audusd- short

That's cool. But TRUTHFULLY

was that totally unbiased ?? If so, WHY ?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #19
  • Jul 22, 2012 7:36pm Jul 22, 2012 7:36pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
That's cool. But TRUTHFULLY

was that totally unbiased ?? If so, WHY ?
it was totally unbiased - it was in the Dice
1st dice was 4 so audusd
2nd die was 6 so it was a sell

why because i want to see what will happen

  • #20
  • Jul 22, 2012 7:48pm Jul 22, 2012 7:48pm
Quoting TEB63
it was totally unbiased - it was in the Dice
1st dice was 4 so audusd
2nd die was 6 so it was a sell

So if this is true then you're developing a system regarding the roll of the dice and forex trading.

Hardly random !

Don't think about it bro'

I think it's great (interesting) and I'll butt out
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
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