E.&O.E.

#98

EURUSD, M5, 2012 July 20
Delete the Target @ 1.2222 (murreymath 1/8)
Exit @ 1.2257, +30

#97

EURUSD, M30, 2012 July 20
Delete the Targets
Exit @ 1.2254 (2x), +27

#96

EURUSD, M15, 2012 July 20
Delete the Target @ 1.2237 (mS1)
Exit @ 1.2254, +29

EURUSD, Long @ 1.2252, Target @ 1.2292 (mR1)

EURUSD, Long @ 1.2235, Target @ 1.2270

EURUSD, Long @ 1.2206 (3x), Target @ 1.2275

EURUSD, M15, 2012 July 20

Long @ 1.2190 (5x), Target @ 1,2220 (DS1), @ 1.2246 (mS1), @ 1.2272 (DPV), @ 1.2292 (mR1), @ 1.2314 (DR1)

EURUSD, H4, 2012 July 20
EURUSD, Daily, 2012 July 20

The market price seems to move within the daily range. Abrupt or stronger price movements seems always typical for crazy fridays. Maybe that sunday will open with a gap. We'll see.

Long @ 1.2158 (10x)

#93

GBPUSD, H1, 2012 July 20
Delete the Target @ 1.5600
Exit @ 1.5611 (2x), +107

GBPAUD, Long @ 1.5050
(see also #49)

GBPAUD, M15, 2012 July 20

I have delete all these 1.2100 SL's before the market close. So I don't trade with SL's at the time. I will trade my trading plan & I don't like when he market will destroy it.
FXcube

EURUSD, Daily, 2012 July 22

Bullish Butterfly-Formation with Fibonacci-Ratios.

X = 1.2298, A = 1.2742, B = 1.2407, C = 1.2552, D = 1.2144
XA = 444, AB = 335, BC = 145, CD = 408, AD = 598

If it will be definitely broken further downside movements seems possible.
Be aware of false breakouts.

Trade with an Edge

Harmonic Butterfly Pattern

The Harmonic Butterfly Pattern is an extension harmonic pattern (that is - the D point exceeds the X point) and is used to trade highs and lows at key reversal points.
As an extension pattern, the CD leg extends towards a 1.272 to 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the XA leg. Note, that Fibonacci extension can even be as far as 2.618 - but beyond that then the pattern is invalid.
Systematic tests by FxGroundworks show Butterfly pattern success rates to be 87.4%-89.79%.

Harmonic Butterfly Pattern Structure

http://www.trade-forex-harmonic-patt...fly-pic500.jpg

 

1. B point must be a .786 Fibonacci extension of the XA leg
2. D point should ideally be a 1.27 Fibonacci extension of the XA leg (for an early reversal ) or a 1.618. Scott Carney maintains the most critical number is the 1.27 XA leg.
3. D point must not exceed the 2.618 extension of the XA leg.
4. The Butterfly pattern must contain an AB=CD

Get Started with Harmonics. After you've browsed through these pages and got to know more about harmonic trading, you'll probably feel like giving them a try. Just go to "Get Started with Harmonics" for a step-by-step guide. It tells you precisely what to do - and how to do it, so you don't waste any time setting up and getting started.

Harmonic Butterfly Pattern Trading Tips

http://www.trade-forex-harmonic-patt...-bigpic500.jpg
Bullish Butterfly example

The great thing about this pattern is that, because it indicates a high probability of a reversal at the end of a trend, you can get into a new trend much earlier than most other traders.
In fact it's quite likely that most other traders will still be trading the continuation in the CD direction, while you are taking a "contrarian" view, and taking the opposite trade.
The key thing to bear in mind about the harmonic butterfly pattern is when it fails, it can fail quite dramatically in a continuation of the trend in the CD direction. So careful risk management in terms of a tight stop-loss is required.
Here is a good example why a close Stop-Loss is absolutely necessary. This is a bullish butterfly pattern on the Eur-Gbp 30M chart. Price has just touched a Support zone at 0.8180.
The 1.618 XA leg is at the same level - and the 2.628 of the BC leg is just a few pips lower.
This is how I traded it:

 

1. Entry at 0.8183
2. Stop at 0.8163 - 20 pips away - placing it below the Support (0.8180), and 8 pips below the bottom of the PRZ. This is also below the 1.618 XA extension of the leg and the 2.618 Fibonacci extension of the BC leg.
3. Target at 0.8230

This gives a risk/reward ratio of just over 1:3 (risking $1 to make $3).
http://www.trade-forex-harmonic-patt...bp-m30-500.jpg
Bearish Gartley example

As the Butterfly is a test of an end of a trend, it's important to notice the momentum of price action on the CD leg, and watch out for strong momentum that could push through the PRZ and make the pattern invalid.
How the CD leg develops sometimes gives us a clue. If the CD leg is steeper than the AB leg, then a 1.618 XA extension is more likely than a 1.27 XA extension. Similarly, if there is a gap or unusually long candles in the CD leg we can also expect a 1.618 of the XA leg.
Generally speaking I only trade a harmonic butterfly pattern if there is a significant Support or Resistance zone near to the 1.27 or 1.618 Fibonacci XA extensions that I can use for placing a Stop.
Taking note of Price Action momentum and any close by Support/Resistance areas will help determine if we are dealing with a 1.27 extension of the XA leg or a 1.618 extension.
I don't trade a harmonic butterfly pattern if price is already past the 1.618 XA extension. If that happens it's likely to be a continuation of the trend in the CD direction, and therefore a reduced probability of a reversal.
I recommend the following pages for further details on harmonic patterns.

 

1. Harmonics "Cheat-sheet"
2. Gartley Pattern
3. Butterfly Pattern
4. Bat Pattern
5. Crab Pattern

Harmonics Basics

 

1. Trade with an Edge
2. How Harmonics Work
3. High Probability Trading
4. Low Risk Trading
5. Trading Leverage
6. Trade Identification
7. Scaling Into a Trade
8. Trade Management

http://www.trade-forex-harmonic-patt...y-pattern.html

Trading Gartley and Butterfly Patterns

The Gartley pattern is named after H. M. Gartley who wrote a book in 1935 called “Profits in the Stock Market”. The second pattern is called a “Butterfly”, which is a variation of the Gartley.
Gartley and Butterfly reversals appear on all time frame charts. They are very useful tool for every trader. These patterns formed near important support or resistance levels are very powerful. Identifying of these patterns can be used with other trading strategies.

Patterns
Bullish Gartley Bearish Gartley
http://www.forextradingplus.com/imag...sh-gartley.gif http://www.forextradingplus.com/imag...sh-gartley.gif

The first pattern on the left is a Bullish Gartley. It might not look bullish to you, but it should reverse at point D and move higher. The chart on the right is a Bearish Gartley. In this case you would short at point D because a decline from point D is expected.
There are several intricate components to a Gartley, but the most basic rules are: Leg X to A is an impulse move and the retracement leg A to D is a distinct two wave move where leg A to B equals leg C to D (in points).
There is a great indicator by nen that identifies the patterns for you.

Bullish Butterfly Bearish Butterfly
http://www.forextradingplus.com/imag...-butterfly.gif http://www.forextradingplus.com/imag...-butterfly.gif

In this case you would short at point D because a decline from point D is expected. This pattern is named based on the fact that it looked like the wings of a buttefly. The biggest difference between this pattern and the Gartley is that the A to D leg is always GREATER (in points) than the X to A leg. The A to D leg will most often be 1.272 or 1.618 times greater (in points) than the X to A leg.

http://www.forextradingplus.com/gartley-patterns.htm

follow-up

Examples from forex trading
On June 6 2007, the patterns appeared on 3 majors at the same time at the beginning of European session.

EURUSD
http://www.forextradingplus.com/imag...-eurusd-sm.jpg

GBPUSD
http://www.forextradingplus.com/imag...-gbpusd-sm.jpg

USDCHF
http://www.forextradingplus.com/imag...-usdchf-sm.jpg

Using patterns with other indicators and trading techniques
Technical analysis on 4 hours chart.
http://www.forextradingplus.com/imag...07gbpusd4H.jpg

Bearish Butterfly identified on 15 minutes chart supported by 4 hours technical analysis.

http://www.forextradingplus.com/imag...-gbpusd-sm.gif

http://www.forextradingplus.com/gartley-patterns.htm

Forex Strategy “Butterfly Effect” - is actually a Harmonic pricing model, which works quite well and the forex market (in any currency pairs and all time frames, although the higher it is, the better), the main difference between the harmonic price patterns from normal patterns (including patterns forex) - a clear model to specific mathematical ratios on Fibonacci among themselves points of this model.

Harmonic price patterns, there are several, but today we look at one of the most common of them - “Butterfly pattern” (to buy - and sell bull-bear).
This strategy, you most likely already met several times on the Internet, but a detailed description of the entrance into the market, as well as still working with this model does not explain nothing. Today, this gap will try to fill me and also explain why, in this model should pay more attention.

Model Gartley “Butterfly” - is a very good model, and usually give a fairly good entry point into the market (something the model can be confused with the flag pattern), but it has its laws, and additional conditions to enter the market.
So, let’s consider how to define and enter into the market for forex strategy “Butterfly Effect”:

http://strategy4forex.com/wp-content...butterfly1.jpg

in the figure above you can see a bullish Gartley model “Butterfly” (ie, the transaction will be concluded on the purchase)

1) red lines highlighted areas of price movement on the chart of any currency pair:
Point X - the starting point, starting point of the harmonic model, “Butterfly”
XA - impulse price movement up the chart (it was Pulse, rather than lateral movement - that movement which is directed in one direction, and without strong kickbacks - the movement as “one breath”), which we take as a basis and stretch for him Fibonacci (build in the course of price movements from the bottom-up)
AB - correcting the price movement from point X to point A, while point B should be within 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci (desirable but not obligatory, even if the price will stay around this level - also very good, but if the price is still reached 50% Fibonacci and jumped away from him - a good sign)
BC - an upward movement in the model Butterfly (directed in the same direction as the segment XA), while point C must be placed at a distance from 61,8% to 78,6% of Fibonacci, built on the segment from point A to point B
CD - 2 nd correctional movement of prices down to a segment XA, and it can be in the 1.272 - 1.618 times the segment BC!
The point D - a point the deal to buy (on the model of Gartley “Butterfly”) may be in the range from 61.8% to 0,78,6% Fibonacci.

2) Consequently, we have a vicious cycle of price constructs, and unless some correlation is not the same in this model, the bargain is simply not. And we pay close attention to the last point is the construction of D, and to this point and set aside an order to buy - Buy Limit. More precisely, for a point podhoditimenno level 61,8% Fibonacci extension of the XA or 1.618% of the sun, can also be a point of contact with the channel, etc. (for details see the deal on the pattern of the flag)
But looks like the classic example of a bullish butterfly on a currency pair USDCAD (M5):

http://strategy4forex.com/wp-content...540x363222.jpg

There’s also the 2 nd option to enter the market - a more conservative (but with this entry into the market stop-loss will be a little more than when trading Buy Limit-y, but you definitely will see you enter the market or not - tk . will be formed point D and finally you can check all the Fibonacci ratios, and only then set the order for the breakdown - Buy Stop)
Warrant a buy-stop set on the breakdown of the trend line, constructed from the maxima of the segment CD or enter the market at market price after the close of the candles above the trend line constructed (as in the forex strategy at Trendlines - just do not rebound, and the breakdown)

3) Because we got an entry point into the market, the next step we determine where to place the same stop-loss. A stop-loss, I recommend installing a few points below the level of 78,6% of Fibonacci

4) Where to place take-profit - it’s you again, you can use the Fibonacci extension to determine tochev exit from the market, set in an open position trailing stop (or relocate the position to breakeven, when you reach a certain count pips) use the important levels to exit a position. But I believe that the first goal for the profit (or part of the profit) - the point A (that it is possible to set take-profit or close the first part of the profits - for example 30% -50% of the open transaction).

For transactions on sale - check the conditions (and correspondingly the reverse pattern of “Butterfly” - bear)!


http://strategy4forex.com/wp-content...rfly_sell3.jpg

Example deal to sell the model “Bear Butterfly”, the currency pair USDCHF (H1):

http://strategy4forex.com/wp-content...540x357444.jpg

NOTE: The ideal bullish and bearish harmonic model of “Butterfly” appear not so often in the forex market, but if you notice them and they will comply with all terms and conditions - safely open trading position, because the probability of profit is very high ! But at the same time, in any case, we should not forget about the money management Forex!

http://strategy4forex.com/forex-stat...ly-effect.html

Harmonic Trading - How to a Draw

EURUSD, Daily, 2012 July 22
see #112

Targets

Bullish Butterfly-Formation with Fibonacci-Ratios.

X = 1.2298, A = 1.2742, B = 1.2407, C = 1.2552, D = 1.2144
XA = 444, AB = 335, BC = 145, CD = 408, AD = 598

Targets:
38.2% XA = 1.2467 (+169 from X 1.2298)
61.8% AD = 1.2513 (+369 from D 1.2144)
CRR 2.5 >

A (1.2742)
CRR > 10
______
Label:
CRR = Chance-Risk-Ratio


1.2158

#108

Targets:
@ 1.2467 (5x), see #118, please.
@ 1.2513 (2x), see #118, please.
@ 3 optional

Unlike other traders who just stick to one strategy for all forms of trending, i am very surprised to find you as an open-minded trader who use combination of systems according to the Market Trend.(Like a successful football coach, Different system for different team)
It's difficult but the only way to be above the water.
If you kindly mention which is better for the form of moving, better help traders.
Any way i appreciate your analysis
Kami