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Ruler of the Universe

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 27, 2008 3:03am Aug 27, 2008 3:03am
I'm a long time lurker - but something just doesn't stack up. I can't count how many times I've seen boasts of 90% win rate - 10 wins in a row etc. I know, I know - it depends on the size of the wins v size of losses. But the braggadocios are implying they are super traders. If they could make a few percent a week, compounded on a regular basis they'd soon own the universe. How come none of these people is wealthier than Bill Gates.
As for those that are on a winning run - read 'Fooled by Randomness' by Taleb. He's seen more superstars crash and burn than most. If a million people are trading forex worldwide, you are bound to get a few superstars for a period - then they crash and burn.
If you really are a superstar - my apologies.
As for myself - I win some and I lose some - at the moment it's more of the latter. But with micro lots it's a fairly cheap form of entertainment. Please don't tell me to use a demo - it's no good for emotional training.

bigblue
Irregular
  • #2
  • Aug 27, 2008 4:57am Aug 27, 2008 4:57am
Quoting bigblue
I'm a long time lurker - but something just doesn't stack up. I can't count how many times I've seen boasts of 90% win rate - 10 wins in a row etc. I know, I know - it depends on the size of the wins v size of losses. But the braggadocios are implying they are super traders. If they could make a few percent a week, compounded on a regular basis they'd soon own the universe. How come none of these people is wealthier than Bill Gates.
As for those that are on a winning run - read 'Fooled by Randomness' by Taleb. He's seen more superstars crash and burn than most. If a million people are trading forex worldwide, you are bound to get a few superstars for a period - then they crash and burn.
If you really are a superstar - my apologies.
As for myself - I win some and I lose some - at the moment it's more of the latter. But with micro lots it's a fairly cheap form of entertainment. Please don't tell me to use a demo - it's no good for emotional training.

bigblue
Yes, but I think you misunderstand the point of what Taleb was saying - the market is not entirely random, but if it were then we would expect some lucky fools to become superstars and in that world (and in ours), they would (and do) attribute their success to their skill rather than chance. They think everything they touch will turn to gold, grossly overestimating their ability, underestimating how much the market can hurt them and then blow up spectacularly. 'Picking up pennies in front of a steamroller'; possibly the best line I have heard to describe a trading strategy.

The reality of it is that skillful superstars do exist, there just are not that many of them. Even less still on this forum.
  • #3
  • Aug 27, 2008 6:38am Aug 27, 2008 6:38am
I think Taleb found that big moves happened more frequently than people thought - he makes his living from trading options - just waiting for the big moves. I certainly don't discount the fact that there are real superstars - but I'm sure they are not getting a profit factor of four or five - even Soros only manages 30% - in a good year.
I think part of our problem might be all the bullshit we've (I've) swallowed. Lower expectations would probably deliver more of the goods.
Irregular
  • #4
  • Jul 20, 2012 12:58pm Jul 20, 2012 12:58pm
I imagine you have a very different view on this topic now Blue.
  • #5
  • Jul 20, 2012 1:07pm Jul 20, 2012 1:07pm
Quoting jag1966
I imagine you have a very different view on this topic now Blue.
Not all that different. I still think 30% a year is a decent turn (although this year I will probably do more than that - but year on year it remains to be seen). In fact I just read on the Really Useless Thread several claims of 25% in a week. Maybe - but not every week - unless they intend to fund the Fed at some point.
Taleb has made me super cautious - always mindful that a good run may be nothing more than a fluke. It will be a couple of years before I can claim consistency and claim that the methods I use do indeed represent some fundamental property of the markets.
Irregular
  • #6
  • Jul 20, 2012 1:21pm Jul 20, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting jag1966
I imagine you have a very different view on this topic now Blue.
Not too difficult to be a trader superstar when you work for one of the banks and manipulate the market along with your fellow bankster colleagues.

But what else could we expect.

Market makers are not making the market to help companies hedge or whatever, and profits from the spread are boring, not bringing a six-figure bonus, so why not manipulate.
  • #7
  • Jul 20, 2012 1:39pm Jul 20, 2012 1:39pm
Quoting CaymanTrader
Not too difficult to be a trader superstar when you work for one of the banks and manipulate the market along with your fellow bankster colleagues.

But what else could we expect.

Market makers are not making the market to help companies hedge or whatever, and profits from the spread are boring, not bringing a six-figure bonus, so why not manipulate.
Agreed, and I am 100% with you that the markets are totally manipulated, the charts actually tell us that if you know what to look for.
  • #8
  • Jul 20, 2012 1:44pm Jul 20, 2012 1:44pm
Quoting bigblue
Not all that different. I still think 30% a year is a decent turn (although this year I will probably do more than that - but year on year it remains to be seen). In fact I just read on the Really Useless Thread several claims of 25% in a week. Maybe - but not every week - unless they intend to fund the Fed at some point.
Taleb has made me super cautious - always mindful that a good run may be nothing more than a fluke. It will be a couple of years before I can claim consistency and claim that the methods I use do indeed represent some fundamental...
25% a week on a £10,000 account isn't unreasonable. You have to get the perspective right.

What if you had £100k trading capital and want to risk 1% per trade but don't want to risk £100k with your broker.

You put 10k in your account and risk 10% per trade, you can never lose more that 10k whatever happens. Nett 5 or 6 winners a week and you have made 50-60%. People do it.
  • #9
  • Jul 20, 2012 2:01pm Jul 20, 2012 2:01pm
Quoting jag1966
25% a week on a £10,000 account isn't unreasonable. You have to get the perspective right.

What if you had £100k trading capital and want to risk 1% per trade but don't want to risk £100k with your broker.

You put 10k in your account and risk 10% per trade, you can never lose more that 10k whatever happens. Nett 5 or 6 winners a week and you have made 50-60%. People do it.
It's possible that my expectations are too low - but 50% on 10K is 5% on the 100K in a week - 1% a day. That is definitely outside my league - 5 to 10% a month is OK for me if I can avoid stress and spend the day walking the dog - or whatever.
Irregular
  • #10
  • Jul 20, 2012 2:06pm Jul 20, 2012 2:06pm
Quoting bigblue
It's possible that my expectations are too low - but 50% on 10K is 5% on the 100K in a week - 1% a day. That is definitely outside my league - 5 to 10% a month is OK for me if I can avoid stress and spend the day walking the dog - or whatever.
Haha, actually I do spend all day walking the dog.
  • #11
  • Last Post: Jul 20, 2012 2:38pm Jul 20, 2012 2:38pm
http://kids-book-club.wikispaces.com...07/titanic.jpg

That the Picture I keep on my wall. It's to remind me that just cause things are going well doesn't mean disaster isn't around the corner - or over the next wave.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
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