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Silent Service Method

  • #14,181
  • Jul 14, 2012 6:04am Jul 14, 2012 6:04am
Thanks guys. Nothing wrong with bumping up the edge a little bit more.

I am normally a pure techy trader. So to me, it usually doesn't matter what the 'feel' is, or what the reports are saying. I sell supply, and buy demand, and keep my risk in check. It's always nice to know when the big boys are going to pull one over on us though.

Edit: Is there a graph of the cot reports anywhere that you guys may use? My google-fu is failing me this morning.
  • #14,182
  • Jul 14, 2012 10:00am Jul 14, 2012 10:00am
Does anyone think it's time the Swissie regained it's safe haven status.

Quite a few charts look ready to turn - Audchf, Gbpchf Chfjpy.

Gbpchf looks like its heading to 1.6 but might not make it - 1.6 is a level to watch for tho. Think Aussie is my fav.

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  • #14,183
  • Jul 14, 2012 6:49pm Jul 14, 2012 6:49pm
Quoting Venice
Thanks guys. Nothing wrong with bumping up the edge a little bit more.

I am normally a pure techy trader. So to me, it usually doesn't matter what the 'feel' is, or what the reports are saying. I sell supply, and buy demand, and keep my risk in check. It's always nice to know when the big boys are going to pull one over on us though.

Edit: Is there a graph of the cot reports anywhere that you guys may use? My google-fu is failing me this morning.
Free site with basic info:
http://nowandfutures.com/cot.html (has a few currencies)
or the original source that needs a bit of deciphering:
http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/Co...ders/index.htm
  • #14,184
  • Jul 14, 2012 8:38pm Jul 14, 2012 8:38pm
Quoting stewrigh
Does anyone think it's time the Swissie regained it's safe haven status.

Quite a few charts look ready to turn - Audchf, Gbpchf Chfjpy.

Gbpchf looks like its heading to 1.6 but might not make it - 1.6 is a level to watch for tho. Think Aussie is my fav.

Attachment
I personally don't want the Swiss Franc. I think it is being punished by not only the SNB, who by the way have openly admitted to buying the GBP/CHF pair now as well, but also is being punished for their proximity to the EU.

I think we see continued selling of the Franc at this point myself. You might be onto something with the AUD/CHF pair though.....it moves in relation to risk on / risk off.......even if the Franc isn't a safety trade at the moment, it's safer than the Aussie.
  • #14,185
  • Jul 14, 2012 10:20pm Jul 14, 2012 10:20pm
Quoting mypipbull
Free site with basic info:
http://nowandfutures.com/cot.html (has a few currencies)
or the original source that needs a bit of deciphering:
http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/Co...ders/index.htm
Thanks.
  • #14,186
  • Jul 15, 2012 10:16pm Jul 15, 2012 10:16pm
What do you guys think of NZDCHF ? I am currently short NZDCHF at 0.77835 as well as AUDCHF at 1.00164.
  • #14,187
  • Jul 15, 2012 10:34pm Jul 15, 2012 10:34pm
Quiet night in Asia. No big surprise though....Japan was on holiday.
  • #14,188
  • Jul 16, 2012 1:13am Jul 16, 2012 1:13am
Quoting TheBodyguard
What do you guys think of NZDCHF ? I am currently short NZDCHF at 0.77835 as well as AUDCHF at 1.00164.
When I look at those two pairs I see very strong uptrends in place.
I personally wouldn't be considering getting short these pairs until the uptrend is broken.....I see no sign of this yet.
Recently there has been a number of overlapping daily bars or 'indecision'. There could be a breakout in one direction or another or worst case both directions to shake out the weak hands.

It sounds to me like you tried to get in early on a top....this can be an expensive game to play. All the same, as long as your risk is small it does not really matter what happens. Good luck with the trade.
  • #14,189
  • Jul 16, 2012 3:49am Jul 16, 2012 3:49am
Quoting mypipbull
When I look at those two pairs I see very strong uptrends in place.
I personally wouldn't be considering getting short these pairs until the uptrend is broken.....I see no sign of this yet.
Recently there has been a number of overlapping daily bars or 'indecision'. There could be a breakout in one direction or another or worst case both directions to shake out the weak hands.

It sounds to me like you tried to get in early on a top....this can be an expensive game to play. All the same, as long as your risk is small it does not really matter what...
Couldn't agree more.
  • #14,190
  • Jul 16, 2012 4:27am Jul 16, 2012 4:27am
Hey guys

What place do you think a manual retail trader might have in 10 years time with all this high frequency trading bullshit that's starting to surface ?
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #14,191
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:42am Jul 16, 2012 6:42am
Quoting j4d
Hey guys

What place do you think a manual retail trader might have in 10 years time with all this high frequency trading bullshit that's starting to surface ?
It's hard to tell really as the FX markets aren't regulated in the normal sense of the word.

As for the stock markets (in the US) I think we could see a shift in the way people are allowed to trade. However, in the meantime it will flourish. The main reason is that the exchanges make commission off of all of the trades. In other words - the NYSE and NASDAQ are all for this bullshit. As the HFT traders make up as much as 70% of the NYSE orders on a daily basis, it will take a lot to unwind this bullshit. However, I think there is a scenario we are going to see soon that will change things.

Sooner or later, there is going to be a major crash because of these assholes. There was the "flash crash" a couple of years ago, but this time it is going to really wreck the markets. I think a more severe crash is going to be needed - one that sticks, and not just for 5 minutes.

Since the exchanges are complicit in these nonsense, it will take business leaders pulling out of the exchanges. Take Facebook for example, they stayed out of the markets much longer than one would expect, and I have read that Zuckerburg didn't want to relinquish control, and more importantly to our discussion: didn't trust the stock markets.

Think about that for a minute. If enough of these bigger player start to lose faith in the system, then there will be changes made on the exchange side. Of course, there is going to be the usual bullshit about how HFT helps with liquidity, but the truth is that we can all live with a 5 cent spread on stocks.....especially if you are trying to invest and not scalp.
  • #14,192
  • Jul 16, 2012 7:47am Jul 16, 2012 7:47am
Seriously... QE3 rumors again? How long are we going to do this song and dance?
  • #14,193
  • Jul 16, 2012 10:51am Jul 16, 2012 10:51am
Quoting Venice
Seriously... QE3 rumors again? How long are we going to do this song and dance?
As long as morons are willing to buy into it. The truth is that those who are going long risk on the news don't need it to be true, they just need the rest of the suckers to buy assets over the next day or two.

Hope burns eternal I guess. Of course, the Fed has to understand that the QE they have done has had almost zero affect on the economy.
  • #14,194
  • Jul 16, 2012 11:04am Jul 16, 2012 11:04am
[quote=clockwork71;5844901]

Sooner or later, there is going to be a major crash because of these assholes.

I agree, I have read that Germany have moved to regulate this, everyone else seems so slow to react ?. Its the usual I suppose, something major has to happen before anything is done about it.
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #14,195
  • Jul 16, 2012 11:08am Jul 16, 2012 11:08am
Quoting clockwork71
As long as morons are willing to buy into it. The truth is that those who are going long risk on the news don't need it to be true, they just need the rest of the suckers to buy assets over the next day or two.

Hope burns eternal I guess. Of course, the Fed has to understand that the QE they have done has had almost zero affect on the economy.
Yep. All it has done is devalue the dollar and run everything counter towards inflation.

Oh well, I guess this week we are going to be bullish till the next round of drama.
  • #14,196
  • Jul 16, 2012 11:12am Jul 16, 2012 11:12am
Quoting TheBodyguard
What do you guys think of NZDCHF ? I am currently short NZDCHF at 0.77835 as well as AUDCHF at 1.00164.

FWIW I also think you jumped the gun a bit - but I'm still watching this and looking to short soon(maybe).

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  • #14,197
  • Jul 16, 2012 11:44am Jul 16, 2012 11:44am
Quoting clockwork71
As long as morons are willing to buy into it. The truth is that those who are going long risk on the news don't need it to be true, they just need the rest of the suckers to buy assets over the next day or two.

Hope burns eternal I guess. Of course, the Fed has to understand that the QE they have done has had almost zero affect on the economy.
Yep I think theres a big crash coming. Read something over the weekend about the states, going bankrupt and CAFR's

Basically all the states have huge funds invested in bonds, treasuries, equities etc. Can you imagine what would happen if the states all decided to sell their bonds etc.

I'll pst the link if I find it.
  • #14,198
  • Jul 16, 2012 11:50am Jul 16, 2012 11:50am
Quoting stewrigh
Yep I think theres a big crash coming. Read something over the weekend about the states, going bankrupt and CAFR's

Basically all the states have huge funds invested in bonds, treasuries, equities etc. Can you imagine what would happen if the states all decided to sell their bonds etc.

I'll pst the link if I find it.
You know what's sad about all of this... all I can think of... is that I hope the charts indicate the crash before it happens. Price generally does (because the big boys know whats going on before the rest of us).

Only place they can't hide their trickery is on the charts, and I mean to take full advantage.
  • #14,199
  • Jul 16, 2012 11:58am Jul 16, 2012 11:58am
Quoting stewrigh
Yep I think theres a big crash coming. Read something over the weekend about the states, going bankrupt and CAFR's

Basically all the states have huge funds invested in bonds, treasuries, equities etc. Can you imagine what would happen if the states all decided to sell their bonds etc.

I'll pst the link if I find it.
Think this is the link starts abt silver and moves on to CAFR's.

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  • #14,200
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:14pm Jul 16, 2012 5:14pm
Quoting stewrigh
FWIW I also think you jumped the gun a bit - but I'm still watching this and looking to short soon(maybe).
Yep....more so because I am long AUD/USD at the moment......and when the redback bull run stops there is plenty of room back the other way.....be it against the CHF or USD......
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