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Just want some opinions

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 15, 2012 12:10am Jul 15, 2012 12:10am
Hypothetical question; say the 'holy grail' does exist, would that prove that the markets are at least 95% manipulated?
  • #2
  • Jul 15, 2012 12:54am Jul 15, 2012 12:54am
Only if the holy grail owns 95% of the available lots.

It's stable effort, rather than a super way to read the chart, that makes profit.
So some team of traders divided the task and found some obscure formula to get instant profit. That is an extra layer above an ea or a rule-bound method. Discretionary, novice flip-a-coin (not ea type) are last.

I think it's easier to think the market is manipulated, the holy grail is currently obtainable, or effortless profit from any edge is the norm.
Subconsciously, I suspect I do, however much the facts state otherwise.
It's why I still demo. The reality of one's failings is difficult to face, and to face is only one of many steps.
  • #3
  • Jul 15, 2012 4:11am Jul 15, 2012 4:11am
Even if a "holygrail" of trading being given to beginners they would still wreck it. So for me holygrail is very subjective for person to person. Some 20% per month others 200%, 2000% or 200,000% per month gains
  • #4
  • Jul 15, 2012 5:19am Jul 15, 2012 5:19am
Quoting Supertrader9
Even if a "holygrail" of trading being given to beginners they would still wreck it. So for me holygrail is very subjective for person to person. Some 20% per month others 200%, 2000% or 200,000% per month gains
How much do you risk, to attain your 200,000% monthly ROE?

Quoting return without appropriate reference to risk is meaningless.

Professional traders manage risk. Beginners are fixated on on returns.
  • #5
  • Jul 15, 2012 5:43am Jul 15, 2012 5:43am
Quoting blackstar
Hypothetical question; say the 'holy grail' does exist, would that prove that the markets are at least 95% manipulated?
a hypothetical question to,

can you specify "Market manipulated" ???
  • #6
  • Edited 6:01am Jul 15, 2012 5:50am | Edited 6:01am
Hanover well said.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/busines...MK7mb1uJeVHb0O
If they were hedging with options and futures i don't know it
  • #7
  • Jul 15, 2012 7:01am Jul 15, 2012 7:01am
Quoting blackstar
Hypothetical question; say the 'holy grail' does exist, would that prove that the markets are at least 95% manipulated?
no, it would just prove that the markets are not efficient.
  • #8
  • Jul 15, 2012 10:17am Jul 15, 2012 10:17am
Quoting hanover
How much do you risk, to attain your 200,000% monthly ROE?

Quoting return without appropriate reference to risk is meaningless.

Professional traders manage risk. Beginners are fixated on on returns.
On my previous post did i ever say i earn 200k%?? I am just saying a satisfactory return level will always vary from one person to another. I do believe there are supertraders out there which trades tick charts/smaller tf risking 2% with 1 pip stop loss to make 50 pips.

We are never too clever and possibilites are endless. Nothing is impossible. Keep that in mind. History has proven this fact. Well of course trading is all about managing risk and thinking in probabilities. No personal attack intended
  • #9
  • Jul 15, 2012 10:28am Jul 15, 2012 10:28am
Quoting Supertrader9
On my previous post did i ever say i earn 200k%?? I am just saying a satisfactory return level will always vary from one person to another. I do believe there are supertraders out there which trades tick charts/smaller tf risking 2% with 1 pip stop loss to make 50 pips.

We are never too clever and possibilites are endless. Nothing is impossible. Keep that in mind. History has proven this fact. Well of course trading is all about managing risk and thinking in probabilities. No personal attack intended
well, earning 200k% a month is impossible.
  • #10
  • Jul 15, 2012 12:38pm Jul 15, 2012 12:38pm
Quoting Custos
well, earning 200k% a month is impossible.
Haha..yeah maybe..please don't take 200k% too seriously guys. Please read back my post and understand it. I am just saying in trading there are still many possibilities and we need to be a constant learner.
  • #11
  • Jul 15, 2012 2:35pm Jul 15, 2012 2:35pm
Quoting Supertrader9
Haha..yeah maybe..please don't take 200k% too seriously guys. Please read back my post and understand it. I am just saying in trading there are still many possibilities and we need to be a constant learner.
Well, if you think in terms of single occurrences over decades, then yes, it's possible. Any boom (tulips, Internet, whatever) has its peaks and valleys.
As for using leverage really well at any time, that could be the rare person who could occasionally do it.
  • #12
  • Jul 15, 2012 3:51pm Jul 15, 2012 3:51pm
I'll try to be more specific, if there was a system that generated 100+ pips/day consistently, would that prove that the markets aren't random at all and that instead it's algorithm based?
  • #13
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:04pm Jul 15, 2012 9:04pm
Quoting blackstar
I'll try to be more specific, if there was a system that generated 100+ pips/day consistently, would that prove that the markets aren't random at all and that instead it's algorithm based?
I think this hypothesis deserves even more specific framing.

If this system required absolutely zero human intervention and still manages to CLOSE actual trades with (not just simply GENERATE) 100+ pips of profit a day EVERY SINGLE TIME with no loss, then I would consider (pending replication and validation) that markets are not random i.e. translatable to an algorithm.

Anything less than this strict standard is, to my mind, not good enough.

Personally tho, I don't believe this standard is achievable. And even if it can be demonstrated to be possible over a particular sample time period, markets will either adapt or the asset being traded will eventually evolve into an entirely different animal so as to nullify the system's long term efficacy.
I'm not trying to convince anyone. I'm not in the "convincing" business.
  • #14
  • Jul 15, 2012 11:30pm Jul 15, 2012 11:30pm
Quoting Supertrader9
On my previous post did i ever say i earn 200k%?? I am just saying a satisfactory return level will always vary from one person to another. I do believe there are supertraders out there which trades tick charts/smaller tf risking 2% with 1 pip stop loss to make 50 pips.

We are never too clever and possibilites are endless. Nothing is impossible. Keep that in mind. History has proven this fact. Well of course trading is all about managing risk and thinking in probabilities. No personal attack intended
Here's a post for you to read. I'm not saying that the author knows everything — after all, there are a potentially infinite number of ways to go about the business of forex — but he's a fairly well known trader who's apparently been successful for more than 30 years.

On the topic of personal attacks, I didn't take your reply that way. You can say almost anything you like, anonymously, on an open forum; and make any claims that you wish, without having to substantiate them. It's all part of the fun.
  • #15
  • Jul 16, 2012 4:00am Jul 16, 2012 4:00am
Actually i have read most of his post and i regard peter crown as my master. I have read all of peter crown's posts.What he told has so much depth if you could comprehend. It also hard to comprehend how generous peter crown was in revealing his method. I recommend you read his posts in full. It also mind baffling how foolished some people to attack him and said his method will not be profitable in the long term. I laughed so hard at the guy who said that. He was just so s****d

I absolutely think he is among the most successful. He said it is the most surest unknown method and to my surprise even after he revealed it all people would still not be able to comprehend(I took about one year and a half leaving and then came back to it).Even i was among the unbelievers(I believe in THE ONE). Seriously most people would not be able to comprehend no matter how hard you tell them. Well that is the way of all good things.

Just open your mind to possibilities and work hard towards it. Market evolves and we need to adapt. If i sound like a newbie then maybe i am. There are always another to trade and managing risk is the most important.

Blackstar: Think of risk and profits in percentage not number of pips. You can make 100pips per day and make 20% by the end of the month. You can also make 100pips per month and still make 20%.

All praises be to the lord of the universe.
  • #16
  • Jul 16, 2012 4:36am Jul 16, 2012 4:36am
In my view , the market manipulation hypothesis needs two factors :
1- gigantic players
2 - correlated interest.

The first one would be in play , if only some of the players control liquidity matches the USA federal reserve. Lets say for example , the market is a gambling table and one of the players keep on doubling the bet , hoping his opponent will sense the risk involved and step out. In this case scenario , the player will always win no matter what. But, If USA has dollars and would like to protect it , so as the bank of England and Central Bank of Europe has their own currency to protect.

2- There is no correlated interest in the currency market , no one will devalue his own currency for the sake of his rival. He may do that on a short term, speculating that his rival wouldn't hold his position and create a short term uncertainty and drives it further down.

The market is too big to be manipulated , whether players or quantities of money involved.
"It's the Margin, Stupid."
  • #17
  • Jul 16, 2012 5:20am Jul 16, 2012 5:20am
Quoting Supertrader9

Blackstar: Think of risk and profits in percentage not number of pips. You can make 100pips per day and make 20% by the end of the month. You can also make 100pips per month and still make 20%.
I find difficult to understand how people doesn't realize this...
  • #18
  • Jul 16, 2012 6:04am Jul 16, 2012 6:04am
Quoting Supertrader9
Actually i have read most of his post and i regard peter crown as my master. I have read all of peter crown's posts.What he told has so much depth if you could comprehend. It also hard to comprehend how generous peter crown was in revealing his method. I recommend you read his posts in full. It also mind baffling how foolished some people to attack him and said his method will not be profitable in the long term. I laughed so hard at the guy who said that. He was just so s****d

I absolutely think he is among the most successful. He said it is...
The post was written by Peter Crowns' buddy, Joel Rensink of www.infiniteyield.com
I've heard both good and things about them. But I'm grateful for the knowledge that they shared, and the way that they got me thinking about the infinite yield concept — potentially huge gains for trivial risk — taking 'trend trading' to its logical extreme. Most of the systems that Joel uses (First Strike, One Night Stand, DIBS, etc) use breakout strategies with tightly controlled risk. The millipede thread also uses much the same concept.
  • #19
  • Jul 16, 2012 10:48am Jul 16, 2012 10:48am
Quoting skenobi
I think this hypothesis deserves even more specific framing.

If this system required absolutely zero human intervention and still manages to CLOSE actual trades with (not just simply GENERATE) 100+ pips of profit a day EVERY SINGLE TIME with no loss, then I would consider (pending replication and validation) that markets are not random i.e. translatable to an algorithm.

Anything less than this strict standard is, to my mind, not good enough.

Personally tho, I don't believe this standard is achievable. And even if it can be demonstrated to be...
After watching charts a while I've realized that all markets are based on averages. Most people say that averages follow price but price also follows averages. After realizing this it made me wonder how exactly buy and sell orders are processed and charted, and I think someone had to program an algorithm to do this.
  • #20
  • Jul 16, 2012 10:54am Jul 16, 2012 10:54am
Quoting Supertrader9
Blackstar: Think of risk and profits in percentage not number of pips. You can make 100pips per day and make 20% by the end of the month. You can also make 100pips per month and still make 20%.
I was just using that as an example.
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