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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #34,861
  • Edited 9:59pm Jul 15, 2012 9:38pm | Edited 9:59pm
Quoting Jaro
do you want to walk on the glass?
nope, not want to scare em ants.
only want study them.
why they can carry 100 times their own weight and i cannot even carry this old body around without wobbling.
But mom warned me against breeding pest , she's worried for her beautiful garden.

I keep telling her not to worry.
That the ants will keep other pest out of her garden.
But she not believes me.
If only i can make the ants abide by some laws.
Like no disturb mom's stuff.
But i also not want spray sulphur all over her garden.

Maybe is bad idea.
If i start buying sulphur in bulk , some peeps may suspect i want make bombs.
the last time i tried order 100k nitrates fertilise the garden and was given the cold shoulder.
Ah i guess just have to keep peeing into the garden. ya i make sure mix 5x water so they not dry up.



regards
  • #34,862
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:52pm Jul 15, 2012 9:52pm
Quoting fti
nope, not want to scare em ants.
only want study them.
why they can carry 100 times their own weight and i cannot even carry this old body around without wobbling.
But mom warned me against breeding pest , she's worried for her beautiful garden.

I keep telling her not to worry.
That the ants will keep other pest out of her garden.
But she not believes me.
If only i can make the ants abide by some laws.
Like no disturb mom's stuff.
But i also not want spray sulphur all over her garden.

Maybe is bad idea.
If i start buying sulphur in bulk , some...
Yes, I see.. You have a bigger problem than thickness of the glass.
  • #34,863
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:55pm Jul 15, 2012 9:55pm
Quoting fti
is no clue.
is a statement.
still water can hurricane very deep with the right kinda eye.
choppy waters, is hard create any eye, to start any stiring.
little ants like us, best stay clear of the storm.
but when the wind subsides we go scoop up buckets fulls of the good stuff that we need.


regards
seeing the eye is a gift, only initiated possess.
this eye must be well proportional, geometrical beauty? the diapason of its power is probably quite wide.
As Above, So Below
  • #34,864
  • Jul 15, 2012 10:04pm Jul 15, 2012 10:04pm
Quoting tashkent
seeing the eye is a gift, only initiated possess.
this eye must be well proportional, geometrical beauty? the diapason of its power is probably quite wide.
is easy , only you need keepmind still and listen to the market.
Is no rocket science.
one eye on the info wires and 1 eye on the pulses.
any thing happens shoot first argue later.
but aim well. not wild shooting.
1 round 1 kill.
read terrain well.



rgards
  • #34,865
  • Jul 15, 2012 10:05pm Jul 15, 2012 10:05pm
Quoting fti
is no clue.
is a statement.
still water can hurricane very deep with the right kinda eye.
choppy waters, is hard create any eye, to start any stiring.
little ants like us, best stay clear of the storm.
but when the wind subsides we go scoop up buckets fulls of the good stuff that we need.


regards
Hi fti,

Are you talking about volatility and sigma?

Regards
King
  • #34,866
  • Jul 15, 2012 10:13pm Jul 15, 2012 10:13pm
Quoting Kingsw
Hi fti,

Are you talking about volatility and sigma?

Regards
King
yes, markets volitility and your sigma.
never let your sigma steep unless you deep in the money.

regards
  • #34,867
  • Jul 16, 2012 4:30am Jul 16, 2012 4:30am
Quoting fti
yes, markets volitility and your sigma.
never let your sigma steep unless you deep in the money.

regards
Thanks, fti.

One more question: Is thrust/impetus/momentum directly related to the combinational effects of volatility (vega) and sigma?

Regards,
King
  • #34,868
  • Edited 7:12am Jul 16, 2012 6:29am | Edited 7:12am
Quoting Kingsw
Thanks, fti.

One more question: Is thrust/impetus/momentum directly related to the combinational effects of volatility (vega) and sigma?

Regards,
King
not directly.
so the answer is no.
thrust/impetus/momentum is a direct reflection of the markets urgency.
Basically is a direct factor of traders agression or lack of because of fear/greed or over exposure.

volitility is a function of liquidity.

and please read up about sigma.
It has nothing to do with the market, only with your rate of change of your blotter due to your managing of the book.
for outright trades the delta is 1/-1 for every $1 exposed, but due to volitility change the change of your sigma is an exponential function to the change in volitility.
You best check that your sigma is within your risk appetite as it can put you in very dark places, and esp if you invoke skewing positions.
otherwise you may become the factor to create the volitility secause of your stops when your delta suddenly blows up in your face.

Normally you should see your sigma skewing in tendem with log binomal distribution of standard deviation.but markets are never normal.its always skewed.

For sophisticated traders who have incorporated syntehtics into their portfolio the delta is 0.5 at the money and will exponentially snowball as volitility increases.

Sorry , but much of this will be dang greek to many traders.Read up and learn how the risk vectors will behave. This the sciences of risk management.
Of course ability read market terrains with appropriate strategies will enhance your ability survive very high sd pumping. But unfortunately no one has perfect read of the markets. So best you can do is manage the down side of your book. The upside , normally no one needs manage.

you are lucky, you only need manage your own book. i used to had to manage a bunch of egors. try visualise a book who's sigma that keeps changing on you by the seconds. This i can tell you, is more volitile than the markets. I already gave you the methdology and strategy manage it. Read the thread.


regards
  • #34,869
  • Jul 16, 2012 7:02am Jul 16, 2012 7:02am
Quoting fti
not directly.
so the answer is no.
thrust/impetus/momentum is a direct reflection of the markets urgency.
Basically is a direct factor of traders agression or lack of because of fear/greed or over exposure.

volitility is a function of liquidity.

and please read up about sigma.
It has nothing to do with the market, only with your rate of change of your blotter due to your managing of the book.
for outright trades the delta is 1/-1 for every $1 exposed, but due to volitility change the change of your sigma is an exponential function to the...
Thanks fti I will read up on risk management.

Regarding thrust I would think a combination of individual bar range and close-to-close range would tell me how aggressive/conservative the traders are.

Give we don't have access to order book how do we gauge liquidity?

Thanks.

Regards,
King
  • #34,870
  • Jul 16, 2012 7:26am Jul 16, 2012 7:26am
Quoting Kingsw
Thanks fti I will read up on risk management.

Regarding thrust I would think a combination of individual bar range and close-to-close range would tell me how aggressive/conservative the traders are.

Give we don't have access to order book how do we gauge liquidity?

Thanks.

Regards,
King
sorry busy now.
Usd figs due.
will reply later.
  • #34,871
  • Edited 9:40am Jul 16, 2012 9:31am | Edited 9:40am
wow....that was exhillerating.
had been shorting the fiber on the way down....and everything was going wonderfull....lots of pips in the bag...

then the news which i wasnt intending to trade...caught me by surprise and the bullish move began...

this time i thought best not to panic...let price do her thing..and wait for the opening...

i let price do her thing...and then when price was happily moving my way again, i put decent skew order in for a very short period of time and grabbed back some of the lost ground.
then waited as price was coming back down...as it retraced over some of my positions i closed them down after taking a little profit on some..
i also put in a small skew for a short period of time...and got a few more pips back.

(note i had to use several small skews for rescue...just in case my dancing was off...as i am not yet experienced in that area)
the end result was from being 1 percent up on total equity at the bottom of the initial bearish move on the fiber...the bullish move took me to about 2 percent down and whilst battling at one stage i was 3 percent down on total equity.....

i finished the battle just over 1 percent up.
and that is me for the day.

i am writing ...because i am happy that a normal loss in book has turned into a win...plus i am still quite lifted by the hard battle...which involved 12 selling positions ...from beginning to end....

about half were initial attacks and the rest were rescue.

thank you for your teaching fti.
dont think that i think i know it all....im just excited by the battle.
  • #34,872
  • Jul 16, 2012 9:34am Jul 16, 2012 9:34am
Quoting eblip
wow....that was exhillerating.
had been shorting the fiber on the way down....and everything was going wonderfull....lots of pips in the bag...

then the news which i wasnt intending to trade...caught me by surprise and the bullish move began...

this time i thought best not to panic...let price do her thing..and wait for the opening...

i let price do her thing...and then put decent skew order in for a very short period of time and grabbed back some of the lost ground.
then waited as price was coming back ...as it retraced over some of my positions...
It's good to hear to come up positive at the end. I think that's great
  • #34,873
  • Jul 16, 2012 10:14am Jul 16, 2012 10:14am
Quoting eblip
wow....that was exhillerating.
had been shorting the fiber on the way down....and everything was going wonderfull....lots of pips in the bag...

then the news which i wasnt intending to trade...caught me by surprise and the bullish move began...

this time i thought best not to panic...let price do her thing..and wait for the opening...

i let price do her thing...and then when price was happily moving my way again, i put decent skew order in for a very short period of time and grabbed back some of the lost ground.
then waited as price was coming...
Way to go! glad you managed to get out ahead.
  • #34,874
  • Edited 11:39am Jul 16, 2012 10:34am | Edited 11:39am
hi tubguy and kingsw.

it may have been luck...as i have just looked at several of the euro charts and they look like digital images...square waves...so recently in a lot of places there is not much chance to rescue on square waves....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-16_1736.png Size: 29 KB

maybe i give euro a miss for a few days...until they have done whatever they are doing...
  • #34,875
  • Jul 16, 2012 10:40am Jul 16, 2012 10:40am
http://www.amazon.com/Dark-Pools-Hig.../dp/0307887170

Rgs.

T.
  • #34,876
  • Jul 16, 2012 11:46am Jul 16, 2012 11:46am
Quoting eblip
hi tubguy and kingsw.

it may have been luck...as i have just looked at several of the euro charts and they look like digital images...square waves...so recently in a lot of places there is not much chance to rescue on square waves....

maybe i give euro a miss for a few days...until they have done whatever they are doing...


Hi eblip


I am happy for you that you came out with profit.


Luck always runs out though....


you may have missed that there was an impulse on friday that warned of a possible stalling/change in direction, you should watch out for these and be very careful about trading against them, you can find a lot in the thread about these impulses and how to make use of them.


Keep practising, reading the thread, work on emotions and it will start to come to you.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #34,877
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:07pm Jul 16, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting eblip
wow....that was exhillerati
ng.
had been shorting the fiber on the way down....and everything was going wonderfull....lots of pips in the bag...

then the news which i wasnt intending to trade...caught me by surprise and the bullish move began...

this time i thought best not to panic...let price do her thing..and wait for the opening...

i let price do her thing...and then when price was happily moving my way again, i put decent skew order in for a very short period of time and grabbed back some of the lost ground.
then waited as price...
When fti taught trade "news"? and rescue this?!?
You'll thank him that you listen to what he says.
Similar die in the market and then say, "fti taught this" ...
Repair your mindset!
  • #34,878
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:07pm Jul 16, 2012 12:07pm
hi phil...
yes im starting to look into elliott waves...

like fti said in the thread ..the original elliott stuff.
it seems quite difficult to be able to tell if im in an impulse or a correction.

i mean these poeple have studied waves for years and i have to respect them they seem to know what they are talking about...but if im being honest.
i look at the counts they do ...and i think they are making it up.
making it fit the wave after it has happened..

on all the waves on the real chart images that i look at, based on elliott...
it seems like they missed this wave and that wave and counted this wave as part of that wave...
it seems like total confusion to me..like a case of the emperors new clothes.

3 waves and 5 waves thing...
well i saw 16 waves and 8 waves....so what is going on...how come you guys saw 3 waves and 5 waves....but conveniently skipped that big wave in the middle.and that big wave at the start...and how can you class THAT as a wave..when you didnt class THAT as a wave....

maybe with 40 or 50 years of chart study ...elliott will start to make sense...but i just cant see it...and im trying....im really trying to see these things....but im not going to make myself see them...

the only thing i know is sometimes there is a big wave and it seems to have direction and purpose...other times there are weak waves that dont seem to have much direction and purpose....and that no matter if a wave goes up...it always comes down some....if it comes down a lot ..then maybe that is impulse and so more to impulse follow....if it comes down a little then maybe it was correction...

but always after the wave...and by that time ...the bailiffs are banging my door down wanting the rent.

but i will continue to look into it...
  • #34,879
  • Edited 12:32pm Jul 16, 2012 12:11pm | Edited 12:32pm
Quoting Gro
When fti taught trade "news"? and rescue this?!?
You'll thank him that you listen to what he says.
Similar die in the market and then say, "fti taught this" ...
Repair your mindset!
hi gro...if i die in the market it is fate.
it just means i have made mistakes and misunderstood many things.

but i wont die in the market...
i am practicing good money management..so its impossible to happen..
it may happen slowly ...but not quickly....i have a cut of point...that is non negotiable...but up until i reach that point...its all fight to the bitter end.

a saying...
a fool blames someone else.
an intelligent man blames himself.
a wise man blames neither.

ps..i understand fti hasnt taught me how to trade.
he has only revealed a mindset and an approach that skillful professionals use...and also showed many warnings...and quite a bit about market structure....and flow.

from the thread it is clearly stated lots of times NOT to trade the news..
(this was an accident on my part.....).i was so engrossed in dancing that i completeley forgot about the news..until it was too late.

what i have learned from fti..is not how to trade...its that if you take a position in the market. then if it is sensible to try and rescue ...and the rescue is well well well within the tollerance of you account....then do not despair.
with careful strategy and patience the position may be salvaged.
that is how i interpreted the thread.

whereas in the past (i have not been trading long) but in the past trade used to hit stop loss..then i would look for another trade.

but gro i understand you thinking ...maybe i am the type of person who will say this and that if i fail in this venture.
thank you for your concern...but i am not that type of person.
i am the type of person that is just happy to have found something he loves....and its win win all the way.. .
even if i lose all my money....i will learn some valuable lesson...i will still be happy...like a painter...who lives a life of poverty but enjoys the game of painting...its an art...(to me this is also an art...a skill that i want ..and i am enjoying getting the skill...win and lose )
(probably because currently i dont have that much to lose)
  • #34,880
  • Jul 16, 2012 12:34pm Jul 16, 2012 12:34pm
Quoting eblip
hi gro...if i die in the market it is fate.
it just means i have made mistakes and misunderstood many things.

but i wont die in the market...
i am practicing good money management..so its impossible to happen..
it may happen slowly ...but not quickly....i have a cut of point...that is non negotiable...but up until i reach that point...its all fight to the bitter end.

a saying...
a fool blames someone else.
an intelligent man blames himself.
a wise man blames neither.

ps..i understand fti hasnt taught me how to trade.
he has only...
Your advocacy OK but market say "f..k this".
You lose mindset.
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