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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #34,841
  • Jul 14, 2012 9:50am Jul 14, 2012 9:50am
Hi lusan...
yes i have spent the past week and a half grasping the concept.

i once read a buddhist book and it stated something along the lines that ...once a man becomes enlightened....there is no possibility of him ever being able to become unenlightened and to see reality as he used to...

all i can say is with regard to trading.
this thread has enlightened me.
  • #34,842
  • Jul 14, 2012 9:53am Jul 14, 2012 9:53am
Quoting eblip
Hi lusan...
yes i have spent the past week and a half grasping the concept.

i once read a buddhist book and it stated something along the lines that ...once a man becomes enlightened....there is no possibility of him ever being able to become unenlightened and to see reality as he used to...

all i can say is with regard to trading.
this thread has enlightened me.
So true. Seeking pathway to enlightenment...
  • #34,843
  • Jul 14, 2012 10:07am Jul 14, 2012 10:07am
Quoting eblip
Hi lusan...
yes i have spent the past week and a half grasping the concept.

i once read a buddhist book and it stated something along the lines that ...once a man becomes enlightened....there is no possibility of him ever being able to become unenlightened and to see reality as he used to...

all i can say is with regard to trading.
this thread has enlightened me.
Good. Join us more often. Babypips is full of crap TBH with you.
  • #34,844
  • Jul 14, 2012 10:15am Jul 14, 2012 10:15am
Quoting duyk20
Good. Join us more often. Babypips is full of crap TBH with you.
hi duk....good to see you.

i recently had big ego issues...ha ha...and now they are in hand.

right now i havent had much to say TBH..
i know what i got to do....and im getting on with it.

i found the goose that lays the golden eggs and im keeping a low profile.
but hope you are keeping well and are trading profitably.

kind regards.
  • #34,845
  • Jul 14, 2012 11:31am Jul 14, 2012 11:31am
Quoting eblip

my question is prior to moving to the short term charts...what bias would you have on the daily trend....bullish or bearish.
For me, my bias will be long.

However, if i am wrong.. i wouldn't go crazy on the rescue.
  • #34,846
  • Jul 14, 2012 4:15pm Jul 14, 2012 4:15pm
Quoting kinky
For me, my bias will be long.

However, if i am wrong.. i wouldn't go crazy on the rescue.
Bias can end in death battles.

I know all to well.

Proceed with caution.
  • #34,847
  • Edited 8:26pm Jul 15, 2012 7:54pm | Edited 8:26pm
Quoting eblip
Hi fti and all.

just a quick question about daily trends.
lets say the daily chart is bearish but the previous days candle is bullish and solid...

my question is prior to moving to the short term charts...what bias would you have on the daily trend....bullish or bearish.

the reason i asked this question is that i understand that you use compounded candle reads...but as we are taking a reading from such a large timeframe in order to trade a much smaller timeframe....does the direction of the previous candle carry much more weight that...
i have major problem trying to understand what you talking about.
i think you need read the thread seriously.

1stly candle carrys no weight.
The dance is very fluid.
if you trapped scouts, then you need find what longer time frames doing.
otherwise you just dance the rhythm.
What has pervious candles have anything to do with the now?
you supposed to read the momentum of the drive relative to your sigma.
if anything, bullishness only makes you more agressive on buying.
berishness only makes you more aggressive selling.

I really still cannot figure out what you asking.
seems you do have some hangups about being right instead of being profitable.
Maybe if you write long long post explain what you actually thinking, in precision.


regards

like we have a possible key reversal candle, but markets are still soft.
and rally was a rubber band in vacuum.
so you expect lots 2 way action
seeking tops and bottoms.
If they play consolidation , then you just wait.
we could try anything between 1.20 to 1.26
i don't know what else to tell you.

I can alwaystell you what you already know.
If it takes out the 1.2350 can go to 1.25.
if 1.25 cracks can go 1.30.
or it can go 1.2250 and go 1.20 , if cracks 1.20, and if cracks 1.15.
or it can sit here at 1.225 for eternity.
be my guest, lay your bets.
if not goes up will go down, if not goes down will go up.
if it sits here then i need find indoor hobby.
OR find a girlfriend keep me busy and frastrated, OR try walking outdoors and ram into a stationary truck OR something.
Or maybe start an ants farm and watch em collecting dirt.

And if anyone knows where its going , then just sell everything you own and nmake a big bet.
then go stand near a cliff and wait the results if good go home, take profits, otherwise jump.

regards
  • #34,848
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:27pm Jul 15, 2012 8:27pm
Quoting fti
i have major problem trying to understand what you talking about.
i think you need read the thread seriously.

1st candle carrys no weight.
The dance is very fluid.
if you trapped scouts, then you need find what longer time frames doing.
otherwise you just dance the rhythm.
What has pervious candles have anything to do with the now?
you supposed to read the momentum of the drive relative to your sigma.
if anything, bullishness only makes you more agressive on buying.
berishness only makes you more aggressive selling.

I really...
Hi...
the type of situation i am talking about is reflected in this chart...
it is not something i trade but it shows what i mean.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: example.png Size: 19 KB


when i look at the chart above....the previous daily candle is bullish yet the trend is bearish.

my question was if bias was to be read from this chart would it be bearish or bullish.


i feel that i am learning how to dance on the 5 minute chart as the price is so active that i feel it is easier to follow.
my problem is that on friday price was moving up on the euro and i made pips on the up move...(no resuces ) then it was clear that price was turning so i made pips on the down move ( no resuces).

on the daily euro the bias i read from the daily chart was bearish...so when i went to the 5 minute chart i was looking for bearish entry..
but price was saying it was bullish....so i entered long and made pips.

in the back of my head....i was saying ( bias on the daily is bearish ...so maybe i am on a retracement move rather than an impulse move....maybe i am not doing the right thing).
so i took pips on the bull move and then price said it was going bearish ....so i then entered again bearish..in my head i thought ( this is the bias for the day ... maybe this is the impulse move ...or maybe it is retracement from the bullish move i just had ...so i took only 15 pips and then pulled out of the trade )

when i thought about what i had done...i thought fti may say i am behaving like a pig...

but i want to learn the right way ..so what is the problem i asked myself.
and i said the problem is when daily bias says bear...but 5 minute chart says bull.....that is the problem ...that is what made me a pig.

i then said i need to ask fti ...to see if he can understand my mistake and help....becausee i read so many times in the thread ...that bulls make money ...bears make money ...pigs get slaughtered.

if i just took the bull trade and then left it...i would have been lying to myself...because the price said (now we are going to turn bear.. and i took it)

am i being irresponsible and irrational..
if so ....what do i need to change about my approach.

thank you .
EDIT
...thank you for your jokes and stuff..
but with upmost respect...i dont want advice in what could happen (thanks for offering anyway).....i dont want a fish....

old saying ...give a man a fish and he will eat for a day.
teach a man to fish and he and his family will eat for the rest of their lives.
  • #34,849
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:32pm Jul 15, 2012 8:32pm
Dear FTI, first of all thank you for sharing your insight and wisdom with us. Although I am a consistent reader of your thread (now I am going through the posts second time) this is my first message. As many others here, I am learning a lot about Forex and trading from you. Your contribution is priceless.
I would like to discuss a current trade of mine with thread readers, if anybody have advice or suggestions, please share.
EU pair overall showing weakness for a long time and it is in downtrend. however these days look quite dangerous since it hit a few years bottom. it looks that the trend is not over but nobody can guarantee that a reversal may not happen.
Taking into account that there is no significant evidence for reversal I decided to short and use FTI attack method. after seeing that uptrend showing weakness, got into the bus in south direction, after retracements martingaled with 2-3-3 troops. I approximately know where i should be looking for an exit - it is the upper blue line in 1H chart where i feel a demand level. If it does not go there and start making higher highs and higher lows I will exit all trades and keep the profit. Is my approach correct, or have i misunderstood FTI's attack method?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-7-16.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-7-16-1h.gif Size: 20 KB
As Above, So Below
  • #34,850
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:37pm Jul 15, 2012 8:37pm
Quoting fti
i have major problem trying to understand what you talking about.
i think you need read the thread seriously.

be my guest, lay your bets.
if not goes up will go down, if not goes down will go up.
if it sits here then i need find indoor hobby.
OR find a girlfriend keep me busy and frastrated, OR try walking outdoors and ram into a stationary truck OR something.
Or maybe start an ants farm and watch em collecting dirt.

And if anyone knows where its going , then just sell everything you own and nmake a big bet.
then...

Morning Fti!
Better stay indoor and sell Euro.... more safe..
P.S. How is your mom doing?
  • #34,851
  • Edited 9:09pm Jul 15, 2012 8:37pm | Edited 9:09pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/jpmor...Ug5KZA9nQ.html

hedge my ...
they took a gamble position and it cost them their shirts.

hedgers insures against volitility risk.
They no make or lose. they ensure effective cost for production.
theese peeps took volitility risk.
Thats not hedging, that gambling.

and they can say anything they like.
But not all who listening are fools.

regards
  • #34,852
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:48pm Jul 15, 2012 8:48pm
Quoting eblip
Hi...
the type of situation i am talking about is reflected in this chart...
it is not something i trade but it shows what i mean.

when i look at the chart above....the previous daily candle is bullish yet the trend is bearish.

my question was if bias was to be read from this chart would it be bearish or bullish.

neither
is in consolidation.
the worst kind , is assasin patterns.

Quoting eblip
Hi...

on the daily euro the bias i read from the daily chart was bearish...so when i went to the 5 minute chart i was looking for bearish entry..
but price was saying it was bullish....so i entered long and made pips.

in the back of my head....i was saying ( bias on the daily is bearish ...so maybe i am on a retracement move rather than an impulse move....maybe i am not doing the right thing).
so i took pips on the bull move and then price said it was going bearish ....so i then entered again bearish..in my head i thought ( this is the bias...
yes the actions seems some what piggish to me.
You could always take 50-60% profits and enhance cost of book.
while waiting find out what markets want to do.

You seem punting. Is nice to punt, but thats not the buisiness.
You seem have lack of patience and action orientated.
25 pips, i give away 25 pips to get into positions.


regards
  • #34,853
  • Jul 15, 2012 8:52pm Jul 15, 2012 8:52pm
Quoting fti
neither
is in consolidation.
the worst kind , is assasin patterns.



yes the actions seems some what piggish to me.
You could always take 50-60% profits and enhance cost of book.
while waiting find out what markets want to do.

You seem punting. Is nice to punt, but thats not the buisiness.
You seem have lack of patience and action orientated.
25 pips, i give away 25 pips to get into positions.


regards


i understand now ...that it was not clear what markets wanted to do..so trading without more clarity is just punting...

there will be no more punting from me.

thank you very much.
  • #34,854
  • Edited 9:05pm Jul 15, 2012 8:52pm | Edited 9:05pm
Quoting tashkent
Dear FTI, first of all thank you for sharing your insight and wisdom with us. Although I am a consistent reader of your thread (now I am going through the posts second time) this is my first message. As many others here, I am learning a lot about Forex and trading from you. Your contribution is priceless.
I would like to discuss a current trade of mine with thread readers, if anybody have advice or suggestions, please share.
EU pair overall showing weakness for a long time and it is in downtrend. however these days look quite dangerous since it...
the lines.
if you notice the lines are on top and weighing down.
also note sometimes they stop at the lines. sometimes they over shoot the lines.
Is up to the markets. 50% of the time it may stop 50% of the time it will overshoot.
Your guess is as good as mine. But I have advantage, I money manage.

To me the lines doing nothing, but seems weighting on the market thats all.

Mostly what markets doing is when they selling euro they buying cable or aud or both.
There is no spot crosses markets is a derivative of the spot.
so they can price crosses anywhere they like if no Cbs stopping them.
note where the euro/ cable and euro/aud is.
and where the euro /yen is.

I expect the volitility be wild both ways kill ducks both sides of the pond.
'or they will hold so dang still grind all the impatient to death.
But i can't tell what they want do yet.
I am still trying read them.


regards
  • #34,855
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:06pm Jul 15, 2012 9:06pm
Quoting fti
the lines.
if you notice the lines are on top and weighing down.
also note sometimes they stop at the lines. sometimes they over shoot the lines.
Is up to the markets. %0% of the time it may stop 50% of the time it will overshoot.
Your guess is as god as mine. But I have advantage, I money manage.

To me the lines doing nothing, but seems weighting on the market thats all.

Mostly what markets doing is when they selling euro they buying cable or aud or both.
There is no spot crosses markets is a derivative of the spot.
so they can price crosses...
Thanks for your response.
the lines
well, they are just levels where I have to be very careful, which either increase or decrease dramatically my profit. on the other hand, the lines are there to be broken...
my MM looks not so well, i conclude?
PS.
Sir, there is smth giving me really headache for a few weeks, may be it is not the right time to ask, but i will risk being a stubborn: the correlation between pi (or phi?) and the trade...
As Above, So Below
  • #34,856
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:11pm Jul 15, 2012 9:11pm
Quoting tashkent
Thanks for your response.
the lines
well, they are just levels where I have to be very careful, which either increase or decrease dramatically my profit. on the other hand, the lines are there to be broken...
my MM looks not so well, i conclude?
PS.
Sir, there is smth giving me really headache for a few weeks, may be it is not the right time to ask, but i will risk being a stubborn: the correlation between pi (or phi?) and the trade...
oh, one creates an eye and a whirl pool and tsunamis,
the other just a ripple on the waters.
depends on the eye.
and still water can runs deep, very deep.


regards
  • #34,857
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:13pm Jul 15, 2012 9:13pm
Quoting fti
Mostly what markets doing is when they selling euro they buying cable or aud or both.
There is no spot crosses markets is a derivative of the spot.
so they can price crosses anywhere they like if no Cbs stopping them.
note where the euro/ cable and euro/aud is.
and where the euro /yen is.
correlated pairs - another subject in the list to be studied. I feel like there are so many things to learn and have no clue where to start. well, actually i did start - from this thread.

Quoting fti
I expect the volitility be wild both ways kill ducks both sides of the pond.
'or they will hold so dang still grind all the impatient to death.
But i can't tell what they want do yet.
I am still trying read them.


regards
that implies that we have to keep MM very tight these days


Quoting fti
oh, one creates an eye and a whirl pool and tsunamis,
the other just a ripple on the waters.
depends on the eye.
and still water can runs deep, very deep.


regards
OK. this was very ticklish. my brain is feeling it. I almost feel like understood the clue
As Above, So Below
  • #34,858
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:18pm Jul 15, 2012 9:18pm
Quoting Jaro
Morning Fti!
Better stay indoor and sell Euro.... more safe..
P.S. How is your mom doing?
mom's very busy.
I have a paralysed uncle recovering from stroke .
Seems he will live.
But the problem is that his gf ran away with his moneys.
Hope he not get another stroke.

and i cannot help. also busy.
still trying figure out, how many layers glass to glue together make a nice underground visible ant farm.
maybe make a few kingdoms see if they can live in peace, but i guess theywill be like euros , if i put the food in the middle of the kingdoms.


regards
  • #34,859
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:29pm Jul 15, 2012 9:29pm
Quoting fti
mom's very busy.
I have a paralysed uncle recovering from stroke .
Seems he will live.
But the problem is that his gf ran away with his moneys.
Hope he not get another stroke.

and i cannot help. also busy.
still trying figure out, how many layers glass to glue together make a nice underground visible ant farm.
maybe make a few kingdoms see if they can live in peace, but i guess theywill be like euros , if i put the food in the middle of the kingdoms.


regards
do you want to walk on the glass?
  • #34,860
  • Jul 15, 2012 9:32pm Jul 15, 2012 9:32pm
Quoting tashkent
correlated pairs - another subject in the list to be studied. I feel like there are so many things to learn and have no clue where to start. well, actually i did start - from this thread.



that implies that we have to keep MM very tight these days




OK. this was very ticklish. my brain is feeling it. I almost feel like understood the clue
is no clue.
is a statement.
still water can hurricane very deep with the right kinda eye.
choppy waters, is hard create any eye, to start any stiring.
little ants like us, best stay clear of the storm.
but when the wind subsides we go scoop up buckets fulls of the good stuff that we need.


regards
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