Live trades - by Forex Mind Games

Next up, shorting GBPUSD. This trade is slightly trickier, as there are 2 possible scenarios for this pair. Though both scenarios are still short trades.

Scenario 1
SHORT GBPUSD around 1.5480-5500
Stop loss 20-30pips
Final target profit 1.5300

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Scenario 2
SHORT GBPUSD around 1.5540-60
Stop loss 30-40pips
Final target profit 1.5300

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Potential selling of US dollars in the Dollar Index Chart?

Review 1 - SHORT GBPUSD

In my trade previews, i posted a potential setup to short GBPUSD. According to scenario 2, there is a strong resistance zone from 1.5540-60. See link below.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...41#post5822741

I plan my trade, and trade my plan. I went SHORT GBPUSD @ 1.5560 on 11th July Wed, in accordance to my pre-identified resistance zone.

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Review 2 - LONG NZDUSD

This trade is one of my bad trades. It is a bad trade because i traded with my gut. I went in because i expected NZDUSD to rebound up. I did not follow my trading indicators. This is a well deserved loss and i gain valuable experience. Trading is a mind game. Repeat the good stuffs, learn from and avoid the bad stuffs.

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Preview 1 - SHORT EURJPY

I have identified another long term resistance zone on the EURJPY. This resistance zone is from 98.30-50. When it retraces to this level, i will looking on the intraday charts for a good opportunity to go short.

SHORT EURJPY 98.30-50
Stop loss above 98.80
Final target profit 95.50-00

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Preview 2 - SHORT GBPAUD

For this month of July, GBPAUD has been unable to break above the resistance zone of 1.5270-00. Will it continue to stay below this level? If it does, go short.

SHORT GBPAUD 1.5270-00
Stop loss above 1.5340
Final target profit 1.5000

From the 4hr chart, it is in a clear 1000pips downtrend.

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Preview 3 - SHORT NZDUSD

On the daily chart, we see 4 lower highs and a downtrend line.

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On the 4hr chart, there is a potential forming of a head & shoulders pattern. In classical technical analysis, a head & shoulders pattern is consider as a bearish reversal pattern. If this pattern is formed, find a suitable price to go short. However, if price breaks above 80.60, this pattern will be invalidated.

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I am looking to LONG USDCAD today if it touches my entry price. See my posts below.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...14#post5775514

This week is a good week for me. I made a number of green pips. If you had followed my trading call to SHORT GBPAUD posted on the weekend, you would have made more than +200pips easily with minimum risk. A high reward, low risk trade.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...12#post5841712

The SHORT GBPAUD trade was filled on 16th July monday. And as of 20th July friday, i am still holding the remaining 33% of my position. Let the profits run!

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EURUSD has been in a 200pips sideways consolidation for the past 2 weeks.

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For this week, i was trading the range and i did 2 trades. One was to attempt to long at the bottom of the range. The other was to try to short at the top of the range.

TRADE #1

The result for longing at the bottom was a loss. Although the trade was filled quite close to the bottom, and my stop loss was triggered 14pips away from the bottom.

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TRADE #2

The short at the top was a moderate win. I shorted almost at the exact top for that day, which was only 10pips away from that day's high. This is a low risk, high reward trade. I am still holding onto the remaining 33% of my position for next week. Got to let my profits run!

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EURUSD has been consolidating in a 180pips sideways range for 2 weeks from 09-20th July. For these past 2 weeks, it has given the big operators ample time to re-adjust their positions. More importantly, i believe these big operators have been re-accumulating their short positions. Therefore, I think they are just about ready to push EURUSD downwards. I have highlighted 2 possible scenarios to short EURUSD.

Scenario #1
SHORT EURUSD @ 1.2210-30
Stop loss 30pips
Final target profit 1.2000

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Scenario #2
SHORT EURUSD @ 1.2290-2320
Stop loss 30pips
Final target profit 1.2000

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Preview #2 - LONG AUDUSD

AUDUSD is found within a rising channel since the beginning of June 2012. And it has been in a very strong uptrend. Since the trend is our friend, we should go long only when trading this pair. The chart below is one of my trading indicators which i used. It shows the percentage change of the top 10 strongest and weakest currency pairs.

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LONG AUDUSD @ 1.0210-30
Stop loss 30pips
Final target profit 1.0800

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EURUSD
This week was a tough week. Especially the movement of EURUSD on friday, which was highly volatile. I was caught on the wrong side of EURUSD and manage to escape with a slight loss. Proper money management saved the day.

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AUDUSD
Another frustrating trade to LONG AUDUSD. I was stopped out 20pips away from this week's bottom, which was printed on 24th July tuesday. By friday's closing time, it went up +230pips.

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Preview #1 - SHORT EURUSD

First up, shorting EURUSD. Once again the long term resistance zone of 1.2410-30, which I posted previously 3 weeks ago is back into view. See link. Will EURUSD hold below resistance or break through this resistance zone?

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...s-part_08.html

SHORT EURUSD @ 1.2410-30
Stop loss above 1.2450
Final target profit 1.2060

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Preview #2 - GBPUSD LONG TERM PIVOT ZONE

Like the EURUSD mentioned above, this long term resistance zone of 1.5780-00 is also back in play. See link.

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...-previews.html

There are 2 possible scenarios for this trade. First up, if resistance zone holds again, we go short.

Scenario #1 - if resistance zone holds below 1.5780-00
SHORT GBPUSD @ 1.5780-00
Stop loss above 1.5820
Final target profit 1.5300

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Scenario #2 - if resistance zone is broken to the upside
LONG GBPUSD @ 1.5800-20
Stop loss below 1.5780
Final target profit 1.6000

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What a volatile week this was for EURUSD. After last week's "Believe me, we will do everything to save euro" heroic speech by ECB president Mario Draghi, the market was expecting some concrete plans to surface during thursday press conference. Instead Super Mario failed to save the princess euro. He disappeared down into a green tunnel.

EURUSD went up 180pips. It was bullish for the whole day on thursday as the market expected Super Mario to throw fireballs to save princess euro. That is right until Super Mario blurted out something about "we are still planning to have a plan to save euro" during the press conference All hell break loose after this. EURUSD reversed its uptrend and plunges 270pips!

EURUSD went up to the resistance zone of 1.2400, as i mentioned in my previous weekly trade previews.

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...-previews.html

After touching 1.2400, it plummeted to 1.2130 in 4 hours. Sometimes, the best trades are the simplest trades. Identifying strong support and resistance zones may not sound sophisticated and sexy. As compared to today's automatic trading robots and complicated mathematical indicators. But hey, support and resistance has worked for the past 100 years. And it will surely continue to work just as well in the next 100. Learn it well. It may turn us into a more consistently profitable trader.

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First up, the king of forex, the EURUSD. All other major currency pairs move in relation to EURUSD. Even if you are trading other pairs, you have to watch this. It is like watching Barcelona vs Real Madrid, all other games for that weekend is relegated to second place.

Watch 1.2400-40 closely. This pivot zone has been in play for a long time already. I think both the bull and bear operators are gunning for this zone. Either the bears will enforce this zone and bring EURUSD down again. Or the bulls will prevail and cause EURUSD to break above this zone.

Scenario 1
If bears win, 1.2400-40 as resistance zone will hold. Thereby forming a third point on the falling channel.

SHORT 1.2400-40
Stop loss above 1.2440
Final target profit 1.2100

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Scenario 2
If bulls win and 1.2400-40 resistance zone is broken to the upside and holds, expect a possible retest of 1.2400 to confirm that the breakout is real. Remember the pivotal nature of support and resistance. Often when resistance zone is broken, it reverses its role to become support zone. If resistance is broken and become support,

LONG 1.2400-10
Stop loss below 1.2380
Final target profit 1.2700

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For part 2, i am looking to go long on the aussie pair. The aussie dollar is still in a strong uptrend since 1st June. The forex market is one of the most trending markets. When a currency pairs, it can really trend for a lonnngggg time. The pair can trend on and on for weeks, months and even years.

I am waiting for AUDUSD and AUDJPY to retrace to the support zone. Do not chase the price when it has run far away. The better traders will wait for a significant retracement to a support zone before entering. This helps ensure a healthy risk to reward ratio.

AUDUSD
LONG 1.0440-70
Stop loss below 1.0400
Final target profit 1.0700

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AUDJPY
LONG 82.10-40
Stop loss below 82.00
Final target profit 85.00

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1.2440, the new magical number for EURUSD. The battle line is drawn between the bulls and bears. Bears will dig a hole to keep EURUSD under 1.2440. Bulls will use their horns to break above 1.2440. If the bulls succeed and 1.2440 defense is broken successfully, expect the old resistance zone to turn into support zone.

I have mentioned twice of this magical number. Click on the 2 links below for reference.

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...ws-part-1.html

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...s-part_08.html

If you have followed my trading call to short EURUSD at the magic number, you would have netted 200 green pips for this week.

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Trading is simple. Support and resistance do work. If you understand the crowd psychology behind S&R, you can trade it effectively. It takes practice to identify S&R. Similar to learning how to swim or ride a bicycle. The initial training is difficult, but once you get the hang of it, you get it for life. And once you reach the EUREKA moment, it is easy to spot and easy to trade with. Practice it today. Have fun!!!

Question: Why do markets have such long memories? Answer: Because the markets are traded by people, and people remember things for a long time. Do you remember where and when you meet your girlfriend or wife? I believe you do, even though it may more than 10 years ago for some of us. Now you know why long term support and resistance zones works.

Preview #1

First preview will be EURUSD. Will we see the bulls break above 1.2440 for first time this coming week?

There is a rising channel on the 4hr chart. If point 3 holds, the bulls will succeed in creating a third higher low. And if it holds, we may expect to see a re-test of 1.2440 zone again.

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Preview #2

Next is USDJPY. This pair is consolidating in a tight range of 70pips since 23rd July. One thing that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) had not done is to do a massive one day intervention. Last year in 2011, BOJ had done 3 massive interventions to prevent the yen from further strengthening. If you refer to my chart below, i will show you 2 of the recent intervention. However in 2012, BOJ has not done a single one day intervention. But what they did was monetary easing via QE Japan Style. In other words, they had done massive money printing to devalue their yen.

The USDJPY is sitting at a price level where there is a high probability for BOJ to intervene again. Remember that BOJ has done it 3 times for 2011, and not even once for 2012. Will there be another intervention soon?

http://i46.tinypic.com/10517q1.png

NZDUSD is a gentler currency pair to trade. It tends to obey long term support and resistance zones really well. NZD is a high interest yielding currency with interest rate at 2.50%. So when a trade is opened to long or buy NZD, you earn daily interest. The interest earned really builds up if you can hold the trade for weeks and months. This strategy is called the "carry trade" and is used by many professional traders.

NZDUSD is at a crossroad junction now. On one hand, it is resisted by the down trend line on the daily chart. On the other hand, it is also forming an up trend line on the 4hr chart. Here are my conditions which i want to see before i go long on this pair.

1. NZDUSD breaks above and stays above the down trendline on the daily chart.
2. NZDUSD retraces and holds at support zone of 0.8000-60.
3. NZDUSD forms a third point on the up trendline on the 4hr chart.

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I am in. According to my trade preview.

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...ws-part-1.html

Long EURUSD at 1.2270.
Stop loss 30-35pips
Target profit #1 1.2370

Went long on AUDUSD at 1.0455

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/0...ng-audusd.html

This is a dull week. EURUSD is capped in a 120pips sideway range. The big players are the ones with the $$$ to move the markets. And they are mostly on their summer holidays sunbathing on a beach. Volatility will return when they return.

On thursday i gave a live call to LONG EURUSD. See link.

http://www.forexmindgames.com/2012/08/long-eurusd.html

Here are the results of that trade. From the 4hr chart below, EURUSD touched the 3rd point of the rising channel. It attempted to go up but only managed to rise for 100pips. It is enough for me to earn some profits on this trade.

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The 10min chart shows the details of my trade. Trading is a mind game. Remember this. Take what the markets give me.

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