Beyond the Candles

NZDCAD...back to 0.7933 ?

Hello my friends, it's me again. I'd like to thank you for welcoming. I have here USD/CHF pair for today. I'm feeling a bit sad about my last EUR/USD analysis where I had some problems with Alpari that time and I couldn't trade it. I hope to this one will be succesfull too. Is there everything correctly and could I go to sell with sellers this week or is there on the market too much good sentiment for USD?

1-W) Weekly candle closed below the Monthly resistance. Do you think I should wait on Monday for confirmination D1 candle?
2-D) WPG-uptrend. Trade it to Daily RM ? I break here the rule: Trade with the trend
So what do you think about it? Thank you all.

thank you for your opinions, price action is a bit of an art, but an art worth mastering in my opinion.

Hi danos
The P is going to the parity and it is very close to it..so from now on we have to be carefull with the entries....more we get close to an important target...more we will see the bearish PA candles and RMs as taking profit of long positions !

Hi Danos,

you did an excellent job with your USDCHF levels. As fxgroup points out we will have more profit-taking and hesitation as price gets nearer 1.0000.

At the moment it is

a) summer, no big trends, often just a small pip range the whole day.

b) small movements just because of news headlines or rumours.

Currently it is all about the topic if QE 3 will be announced or not.

If you want to see what happens to CHF overall, then compare the USDCHF with GBPCHF and CHFJPY.

Attached a CHFJPY chart ( fxgroup showed a chart of this pair, right at the beginning of this thread ).

Some traders want to buy CHFJPY because of some sort of pinbar in 4H etc. They probably speculate that a drop in USDCHF and GBPCHF might lead to CHF strength, this means CHFJPY would likely rise.

What do we see : WPD = consolidation in an overall down trend. It might very well go to new lows, see the down spike earlier.

So careful, at the moment it is good to think of dfumagalli`s advice of waiting for WEEKLY confirmations - even if waiting is difficult.

Best wishes,

Michael

L.O.L. Are you looking over my charts ?

The trading is simple but not easy...but let's try to simplify the charts in order to see it simplier as we could do it !

Hi All,

After extensive traveling I find some time to put my charts ;-)

CHFJPY I think in this case 81 on D was crucial. Price did not closed above.

Do you think that price stocked in M RM ?

Ciao Dariusz...nice to see you again !
Now the BRN 80 in confluence with the dynamic S level is the factor that holds the P on.
The H&S with the return of the P back within M RM give us very important clues about the direction of our trades.

Just for practice .

GBPNZD

thanks all you guys! i have learned much from the thread, and i love the trading style very much. i read all the posts, that spent me lots of time because of bad english, but its worth. so i make a post keep the thread goes on, if i have nice charts i will share certainly.

Thanks O ...no worries about your english...it is far better than mine !
Welcome and we will looking forward for your charts and comments !

NZDCAD

The P is in RM with 2MPB at S level...one of the most important SW within RM becomes the very first TG meanwhile the R level becomes the second TG.

Monthly chart (Attachment 1)

WPD
Price is inside a triangle. Buyers reacted to the very strong sellers of the past months and got price back up to BRN 1.05.
The last bars form something similar to a multi-month pin bar but first:

 

1. We have to wait till the end of this month to be sure as we only look at closed bars.
2. The composite bar as of now failed to close above 1.05. This gives less than certain evidence, it could just turn into an exhaustion bar.

Weekly chart (Attachment 2)

WPD
This chart brings a lot of better details about this market.

We are in a bullish channel strong enough to have pierced through the blue RM right before it.
Price wants to get to the upper trend line delimiting the triangle (see green arrow) but it path is far from certain.

 

1. There is BRN 1.05 in the way.
2. Price is now inside the RM to its left and this RM will act as resistance
3. A massively strong resistance is provided by the large weekly RM (middle 2011, all to the left).
4. Further ahead, there's another small RM (the one in the middle) providing its own resistance. It's small but its break out caused a weekly swing and retracement, so it's not weak. I have plotted a dashed cyan line to show the effect resistance level (which is the RM support).

Therefore, we need price to confirm its true intentions before jumping on the buyers bandwagon. Such confirmation would be a break out above BRN 1.05, then a dip / retracement back to the same BRN to turn it into support.
If price won't provide such confirmation it will be very unsafe to enter a trade.


Daily chart (Attachment 3)

WPG
Depending on whether price will break BRN 1.05 or not, we may see it (hopefully) retracing back on top of it (I have plotted some arrows to show it) or be pushed down by the channel resistance in confluence with the BRN 1.05 and then try to break the BRN again later.

Another scenario I have not drawn involves price ranging while below the BRN and gaining momentum.

my first chart, please comment

[quote=ur0zri;5887359] The fact that all happends at a very strong M S level made think rather to a TP of the long term short positions, but most of all it still is a CT BUOB.
The fact that the BUOB didn't close above the previous two candle's highs means that the sellers want to keep the P back in RM.

P.S. If you put some colour on your chart or make it lighter I would be very greatful. Thanks.

Therefore, we need price to confirm its true intentions before jumping on the buyers bandwagon.


===================

Thank you dfumagalli, similar picture in AUDJPY, daily line @ approx. 82.49.

Waiting.....

Michael

Edit : I see the pic is too dark, will try to edit or post like fxgroup´s charts.

[quote=msmarple;5892343] Hello Michael.....I'm allready in for the resons releated on chart...and is all studied here in this thread....2DPB in RM with the main trend !

Since you are already so ahead, I hope I may give you two little suggestions to further improve:

1) Try keeping the chart clean. I know I am the first guilty for "lots of levels" charts but I am working on changing that. Otherwise the many levels will easily translate in "analysis paralysis" as the many levels will bring in more doubts and fears than really helping.
You really want to look at FXGroup's terse charts examples more than at mine (expecially the first ones).

2) Your chart is not too dark, it's just blurred. This means you are saving it in JPEG or uploading it from an online service that performs image resizing with really lossy algorhythms. Limited to market charts and similar, PNG format will usually give you full quality and also smaller file size.

The most readable chart has to have very crisp lines and candle wicks.

Thanks fxgroup & dfumagalli for the quick reply. I am using Jing/Techsmith, which has png files, usually it works fine.

But with light background for posts is probably better.

Before I could read your posts I made some EURAUD charts, W + D, they show that so far there is NOTHING valid in terms of reversal.

( last ones in dark, sorry...)

Once again thank you for the suggestions / improvements.

Michael

Well, click on your charts and look at the extension: both in the previous post and in this one, all your charts are stored as JPG lossy files.