Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1742 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #34,821
  • Jul 13, 2012 2:42am Jul 13, 2012 2:42am
Quoting Gro
"Walk down the blade of the sword
walk down the slippery ice
you dont watch step sequence
To walk along the cliffs
you must have your hand free."
this is actually deep and very much trading related
  • #34,822
  • Jul 13, 2012 2:43am Jul 13, 2012 2:43am
Quoting Kingsw
Regards,
King (not a real king just the short form of my first name)
is your first name Kingslayer?
  • #34,823
  • Jul 13, 2012 2:48am Jul 13, 2012 2:48am
Quoting Kingsw
Thanks fti, luSan and eblip. I found the book "The ultimate trading guide" by Mr Hill. Is it similar to the 1979 book?

fti,

I have trouble understanding volatility. What role does it play in the general trading scheme? You mentioned sigma and vega. Given that price changes aren't normally distributed, do we really use standard deviation to calculate volatility. If so isn't Bollinger Band would also be useful here?

I am still learning to spot trend on daily chart. May I ask what are key points to note?

I am going to read the Hill's...
drop your indicators before they drop you

it is all relative, no indicator will tell you if the current leg is a big deviation or within range, until its over.
  • #34,824
  • Edited 7:19am Jul 13, 2012 6:42am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting fti
this the way,
there no other way.
if you can fly you must fly alone.
only because you can.

if you cannot fly then you need buy a plane ticket.
If you buy plane ticket then your life is not in your hands
for the duration of the flight.

But as you fly,
is nice if there are friends that can fly share the splendour
just make sure they not eagles.
doves makes nice meals.

To survive the flight,
one must be able decern between 天地
one allows you glide freely in splendour.
one you crash into.

regards

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YFt76...2A4F11AAE8665C...
Goose is a children of sky and water
At the end of the day sky and water connect in a one tone-mist
In the mist goose knows ...

My view
天-The symbol of a man reaching to symbol sky(pernament change),for he knew "middle way"
地-The symbol It is for "two drops in the well"
  • #34,825
  • Edited 9:54am Jul 13, 2012 7:41am | Edited 9:54am
Have a nice weekend everyone.

Inserted Video
  • #34,826
  • Jul 13, 2012 8:45am Jul 13, 2012 8:45am
Quoting fti
ok
here dad's lessons for you.
天

direct translated is mean sky.

chinese view

Tien is representations of things that are beyond one's control.
God is tien.
his works are beyond your comprehension nor control.

Your father is your tien.
was his will if you exist or not.

your govt is your tien.
thier policys and workings are beyond your control.

In olden days , is known as matters of the divine of fate.
.............................................................................
...............................................................................
even...
Hi fti,

I try to guess what you're saying - duality of matters? But what does the concept do with trading? Might be I am too thick

天地陰陽
地 means earth or ground. I presume something that 人 can control?

Thanks.

Regards,
King
  • #34,827
  • Jul 13, 2012 8:49am Jul 13, 2012 8:49am
Quoting piccolo
is your first name Kingslayer?
LOL! That sounds violent :nerd:

Good trading.

King
  • #34,828
  • Edited 9:11am Jul 13, 2012 8:50am | Edited 9:11am
sky ground.
sky out of your control
ground within your control

to dance is to strike a balance between both.
to use what you can control to ride that which you cant.
to read the terrrain and move accordingly.

edt..
this is my interpretation...it may not be correct.
  • #34,829
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:00am Jul 13, 2012 9:00am
Quoting piccolo
drop your indicators before they drop you

it is all relative, no indicator will tell you if the current leg is a big deviation or within range, until its over.
I gather that indicators that are based on historical price (anything other than NOW) are no way predictive. I am totally "naked" when I trade but I am "blind" even I can see the prices going up and down...

My newbie observation is that what one see on a chart is based on market structure, which I think is a constant. Because of that, forms, or "signs" as noted on the chart are actually showing what/how the MM/Brokers/Dealers are dealing with the game. However, isn't "forms" a kind of "indicators" given it's historically based? I am thinking out loud here, and I am confused...

Regards,
King
  • #34,830
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:10am Jul 13, 2012 9:10am
Quoting eblip
sky ground.
sky out of your control
ground within your control

to dance is to strike a balance between both.
to use what you can control to ride that which you cant.
to read the terrrain and move accordingly.
Thanks eblip. I think I understand now.

What are the things that retail traders can control? MM, risk management, chart reading skills? And then we go with the flow, I presume...

King
  • #34,831
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:12am Jul 13, 2012 9:12am
When Sysifos accept God's punishment(pushing the ball in front of him for ever) ...He triumphed over God.
  • #34,832
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:46am Jul 13, 2012 9:46am
Quoting Gro
When Sysifos accept God's punishment(pushing the ball in front of him for ever) ...He triumphed over God.
My interpretation: Being humble, recognise own's limitations, abandon hope...

Quote
Camus tells us that the moment Sisyphus becomes aware of his fate, his fate becomes tragic. He also alludes to Oedipus, who becomes a tragic figure only when he becomes aware that he has killed his father and married his mother. He also remarks that both Sisyphus and Oedipus are ultimately happy, that they "conclude that all is well." Tragedy, Camus seems to be suggesting, is not pessimistic. On the contrary, it represents the greatest triumph we are capable of as human beings. So long as Sisyphus and Oedipus continue to hope and to deceive themselves, they are not heroic. With tragic recognition comes a full acknowledgment of our fate and our limitations, and with that acknowledgment comes an acceptance of who we are and what we are capable of. Tragic fate only seems horrible in contrast to the hope for something more. In accepting their fate, Sisyphus and Oedipus have abandoned hope, and so their fate does not seem horrible to them. On the contrary, they have finally found the only genuine happiness.
http://www.sparknotes.com/philosophy...ection11.rhtml
  • #34,833
  • Jul 13, 2012 9:49am Jul 13, 2012 9:49am
Quoting Kingsw
Thanks eblip. I think I understand now.

What are the things that retail traders can control? MM, risk management, chart reading skills? And then we go with the flow, I presume...

King
You will "fti's gem" in one word?!?

Maybe sit and wait ...
  • #34,834
  • Jul 13, 2012 10:07am Jul 13, 2012 10:07am
Quoting Kingsw
My interpretation: Being humble, recognise own's limitations, abandon hope...

http://www.sparknotes.com/philosophy...ection11.rhtml
Continue!
  • #34,835
  • Edited 4:17am Jul 14, 2012 2:19am | Edited 4:17am
Quoting Gro
You will "fti's gem" in one word?!?

Maybe sit and wait ...
say pure.
Inserted Video


i can't tell you why,
euros
ain't easy coming down.

Inserted Video


all i can say is, if on the drop,
if markets keep making mm's very very long without breathing space to square out.
then is unlikely they will quote down, and probably rubber band the stops , 1st chance they get.
so you best mm well.

observed that the mms hand raliing the cable on the way down and ti some extend the aud.
the volitility in yen makes me suspect covert panda activities as they may like diversify their holdings as its getting quite bad and everyone's inflating subtlly.if we make see 1.15s the volitility will become wild.

also need keep eagle eyes on the inflation figs when they available..

be aware that if mm starts on back to back quoting, liquidity will evaporate.

for the benefit of those not understand back to back protocol..
Is when mm's not making decent size prices, unless have access to some big guns behind the prices. We are moving to a dangerous trading phase. so be on guard.

regards

They haven't penned the song "It takes balls to be a trader."
so we'll make do with this one

Inserted Video


incidentally my net is still crawlling, althought some peeps are checking under the hood.
just let you know its a balls breaking getting you the tubes..
I not reviewing whats posted , so if you hear anything unpleasent , is not my fault.
Doing best I can.
  • #34,836
  • Jul 14, 2012 4:54am Jul 14, 2012 4:54am
Hello fti, could you offer some comments on Euro/Usd?

Friday movement seems like profit-taking activities?

Thanks.
  • #34,837
  • Jul 14, 2012 5:07am Jul 14, 2012 5:07am
Quoting duyk20
Hello fti, could you offer some comments on Euro/Usd?

Friday movement seems like profit-taking activities?

Thanks.
what can i say?
we rubber banded in a vacuum in twilight zone.
the market makers had been very kind.
if suxh happened in active ny zone.
the causualty rate could had doubled.
expect increased volitility and lots 2 way action.

i not detected bottom yet
the euro crosses very telling.
only euro japs had any real reaction .
trend is intact its the liquidity i am a little worried about.

otherwise all seems intact.
lets hope the euro boys , comes up with something stable the markets.
More volitility and the cut gets deep.

Clear mind.
trade what you see, and mm properly.


regards
  • #34,838
  • Jul 14, 2012 5:19am Jul 14, 2012 5:19am
Quoting fti
what can i say?
we rubber banded in a vacuum in twilight zone.
the market makers had been very kind.
if suxh happened in active ny zone.
the causualty rate could had doubled.
expect increased volitility and lots 2 way action.

i not detected bottom yet
the euro crosses very telling.
only euro japs had any real reaction .
trend is intact its the liquidity i am a little worried about.

otherwise all seems intact.
lets hope the euro boys , comes up with something stable the markets.
More volitility and the cut gets deep.

Clear mind.
trade what you...
Thank you.
  • #34,839
  • Jul 14, 2012 9:04am Jul 14, 2012 9:04am
Hi fti and all.

just a quick question about daily trends.
lets say the daily chart is bearish but the previous days candle is bullish and solid...

my question is prior to moving to the short term charts...what bias would you have on the daily trend....bullish or bearish.

the reason i asked this question is that i understand that you use compounded candle reads...but as we are taking a reading from such a large timeframe in order to trade a much smaller timeframe....does the direction of the previous candle carry much more weight that the general trend read from the daily chart.

this may be a silly question...but a good answer will clear a lot of cobwebs for me.

thank you.
  • #34,840
  • Jul 14, 2012 9:40am Jul 14, 2012 9:40am
Quoting eblip
Hi fti and all.just a quick question about daily trends.lets say the daily chart is bearish but the previous days candle is bullish and solid...
my question is prior to moving to the short term charts...what bias would you have on the daily trend....bullish or bearish.the reason i asked this question is that i understand that you use compounded candle reads...but as we are taking a reading from such a large timeframe in order to trade a much smaller timeframe....does the direction of the previous candle carry much more weight that the...
Quoting fit
.... will ultimate come to the realisation that these are just tools. Tools that are built on historical and lagging databases. Moreover the rigidity of the parameters used in the studies imposes rigid responses to changing market conditions. Have we forgotten that the market is a live beast that learns and adapts to trader behaviours? Many have forgotten that the market is the sum total of the behaviour of the participants engaged in the market place. These tools are used for measuring the markets health, not so unlike the thermometer to a doctor, or the measuring tape to a carpenter, just a tool.
Today, I began doing a refresher on forex trading. So guess what, I am going back to read the first 200 pages of this thread. I am due. After 5 years of doing this and thousand of hours of bird watching, I should be able to understand better fit's teaching. Shalom
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
139 traders viewing now