Akuma99 Not So Squeezy Journal

TRADE TYPE: TRENDING

May 12 | LONG | AUD/USD @ 0.7762 | SL: 0.7733 | TP: 0.7818


http://img240.imageshack.us/img240/9895/trade174re.gif

Been offline for a little while, a few nice signals have passed by, but here is one I have caught on the Aussie dollar. The main thing that worries me on this one is I live in Australia, and for the Aussie dollar to move in the the 78's is pretty rare these days, still a signal is a signal.

Trend
Strong established uptrend, nothing to fight against for now.

Momentum
Strong bullish momentum on the 4H's and solid daily bullish momentum also, plenty there to work with.

Trigger
Not really a classic CCI trigger, but it is holding well above the 0 line, with the momentum on our side and price at the lower bollinger in an uptrend, looks like time to go long.

Resistance/Support
Well above the newly added 100SMA, and 200SMA, so nothing to stop it there, yesterday's high would probably be the main barrier for further moves up.

Stoploss/Exit Strategy
Stop just below the daily pivot, while a standard target at the 161.8 extension.

Happy trading!

This one didn't get to target, but moved well above +20 and so gave me a chance to move the stop to break-even (something I think I need to do a little more).

http://img240.imageshack.us/img240/4196/trade16b0ka.gif

TRADE RESULT: +0

Well this one move very nicely to the upperBB, where I locked in +10 looking for the extension. Things started to go a little crazy though once US opened bouncing around in a 15 pip range before finally taking my stop. So a small gain, but a gain none the less.

http://img114.imageshack.us/img114/7694/trade17b1rm.gif

TRADE RESULT: +10

Akuma,

I took the exact same trade (except mine started at 7761) as you did using your method and before you posted. I ended with the same result.. So I guess you are being completely honest in this approach... LOL... I like this approach.

Scott

Well it has been a good week for the squeeze play, although in such strong trending market, this is really where we need to make our money, and most well established system really should be taking a fair bit from the markets this week.

Here is a run down of last week and this weeks results as posted here:

Week ending 5th of May:

Wednesday: +79
Thursday: +36
Friday: +145

Weekly Total: +260


Week ending 12th of May:

Monday: -18
Tuesday: +259
Wednesday: +109
Thursday: +0
Friday: +10

Weekly Total: +360

thanks scott, glad you got some pips from it, we certainly have to be nimble with the squeeze play to protect ourselves from those dreaded head fakes.

Well as I have mention a couple of times previously, I like to trade the markets "naked" every 4th week or so in an attempt to fine tune my market reading skills. These weeks I will only trade one lot per trade, and it will probably strike you that my calls, and reasoning differs somewhat from when I use the squeeze CCI trigger method I showed last week.

When I say I trade naked, in truth that is not quite right, as the squeeze still remains as a guide to volatility, however my direction is taken from pivots, chart patterns and at times, good old gut feeling.

New trade coming soon.

TRADE TYPE: COUNTER TREND

May 15 | SHORT | EUR/USD @ 1.2919 | SL: 1.2960 | TP: 1.2827



http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/914/trade182sf.gif

Ok for me, when trading naked, I always view simple as being best. So we have been presented with a blue zone on the EUR, europe was looming so I know there was not much point do anything till then, we have an ascending wedge formation, as indicated by the black trend lines in the chart above, and we are below R1 pivot for the day, I have opened on a break of that wedge.

I can feel everyone is waiting for signs of a reversal in the dollar, you could feel it in the market at the end of last week, and with the weekend to think things over, it wouldn't surprise me to see some profit taking to push things in the opposite direction temporarily.

Well that worked well this time, I have locked in +50, and let's see how long we can follow this one.

http://img234.imageshack.us/img234/6708/update1yp.gif

Ok, looks like the EUR will be my naked pair for the day. First lot outline above remains open, I now have opened a second lot on a pivot line bounce at the US open as shown below:

http://img114.imageshack.us/img114/2720/trade196ni.gif

Hi to all...

I've been watching this threat and I realy look upon you Akuma 99, Think this is one of most perspective strategys on web. Just like you said: not to learn trading Forex but to learn Trading.
So I have some questions... I'm new to Forex so do take this questions as such...
1. how do you adjust pivot points S,R? I'm now using your indicators and would like to have the right data. When I try to change them they jump to old data all over again.So Is this done somehow auto?

2. How do you measure Bulish/Bearish momentum on 1H, 4H, 1d charts, you often talk about. With CCI? How is that?

3. Why sometimes when 'candles' breake through up/bottom Bollinger bars there is not change of a trend?...How dou you know when there is, after going through upper BB, a short move or no change in a trend at all?

Hope you pardon my not well spoken English and hope seeing from your educational Threads soon again.

P.s. Did you ever think about putting a Guide For Your Strategy out?

Thanks,
keep it going...

Well not a bad little day on the Euro yesterday was it, not enough price movement to say the uptrend is over, but we do appear to entering into a period of ranging price action while the market makes up its mind.

Have closed both of the above lots, missing the second lots profit target by a pip, it may well get there later today, but with a slow asian session approaching, I have closed and will reset for the day.

http://img335.imageshack.us/img335/3908/trade19b4kp.gif

TRADE RESULT: +137

Hi there tim94, and thanks for the questions. Your english is just fine don't worry, I will try to go through your questions one by one:

The pivot points are worked out automatically by the indicator, taking yesterdays high, low and close. If you want to learn about the actual calculations and how some trade them, I have previously written a basic explanation at my web site here.


Well I personally measure it with a 14 period Momentum indicator placed on the 4H (over 100 is bullish, below is bearish), and daily charts. The CCI is also a good momentum indicator, so you can really choose which ones suits you best.


Well John Bollinger, the creator of the bollinger bands actually recommends going long on a close above the bands, and short on a close below, so really the intended use is the opposite to what you state. Personally I have found it a 50/50 bet either way, and so rarely open a long trade at the top of the bands or vise versa, I always like to see a long signal at the bottom of the bands.


Yes I am thinking about that, still a few things I want to smooth out with everyones help, and then I will probably put a small e-book together. Thanks for the suggestion

Hope that help, let me know if anything is still unclear.

Happy Trading!

TRADE TYPE: RANGING

May 15 | LONG | GBP/JPY @ 207.78 | SL: 206.29 | TP: 208.35


http://img113.imageshack.us/img113/2803/trade206ht.gif

Ok so why this one?, we are caught in a consolidation pattern, this time an equilateral triangle, and we are nearing the apex. We have a blue zone, so the breakout of the triangle is approaching, and for me it "looks and feels" like an upward break.

My target is yesterdays high for now, but I will monitor it if we do approach those levels, lock in break even and play for a breakout.

TRADE TYPE: RANGING

May 16 | LONG | EUR/JPY @ 141.39 | SL: 140.89 | TP: 142.06

http://img127.imageshack.us/img127/9598/trade211wc.gif

Another trade on a Yen cross pair, this time with the Euro. Like the trade above we are in a consolidation period after a recent drop, what interests me in this one is the length of consolidation we are seeing. Trading naked brings a different perspective when it comes to my trade decisions, using more interpratation rather than hard and fast rules, and to me, such a protracted ranging period says to me the market is changing it's mind.

I say this because, I know myself, if I have been doing one thing in life, I would only pause and think about that thing, if I was seriously thinking of changing things around, otherwise there is no need to think about it for so long. Sounds good in theory anyway, we will see.

TRADE TYPE: COUNTER TREND

May 16 | SHORT | EUR/USD @ 1.2818 | SL: 1.2870 | TP: 1.2728


http://img373.imageshack.us/img373/4589/trade228fn.gif

It is very rare I have 3 trades opened in unison, but this one I have been watching. I am short at the 50.0 retracement of the late US session crawl that formed yesterdays low. The bounce off that level has been weak, and to me looks primed to make a run at the inevitable stops that sit below yesterdays low. It just so happened that blue zone popped up right on that 50.0 level I was watching so in we go.

Oh in case you are wondering what "tip toe" candles are, that is just a term I use for small candles that creap in a direction. To me they resemble someone trying to sneak up on someone, so in this case, try to very quietly lift the EUR while noone notices to get themselves a better entry price before stomping on it hard, hope it is the case this time.

Hi Akuma,

It's an interesting thread. Thanks for taking the time and post the trades.

However, I think your entry is a bit too fast. You should wait for another hour or so for the momentum to pick up. Just my opinion.

There seems a lot of opportunities today. Just need some patience :-)

Cheers,

Ken

Thanks for the thoughts Ken, and more than likely you are right, unfortunately it works out with the time differences that I am always in transit around the late Asian, early European session when the momentum is picking up and so miss those opportunities. I used to use limit orders, but have grown to detest those

I am willing to take a little heat on this on, with the stop above 78.6 retracement and see what happens, weeks I trade semi-naked I trade in smaller lots, so my exposure is lighter this time.

Let's hope it turns before the 78.6

You are right in terms of opportunity, especially if anyone is a fan of the squeeze, the whole market is in blue zones currently

Ok let's follow up yesterdays trades. Firstly the triangle pattern on the GBP/JPY, I was long, looking for a upside break, but the triangle still holds as I write this morning. Trade remains open.


This one I was lucky on, with price moving to around +25, allowing me to lock in +1, it would have later been stopped out with a spike lower, thankfully I was online for this one.

TRADE RESULT: +1


This one moved a decent amount in my favour, where I moved my stop to +1, actually hasn't hit my original stop yet, but has hit my +1 stop, so this one is closed.

TRADE RESULT: +1

Overall a very rangy day, not too much happened really, still moving my stop to +1 has kept it from being a losing day.

For those using my squeeze indicator, here is the latest version, code has been cleaned up, and two extra types of triggers are available, momentum and macd. That means the following trigger types are available:

1 - Stochastic (defaults to 14 period)
2 - CCI (defaults to 50 period)
3 - RSI (defaults to 14 period)
4 - MACD (defaults to a 12, 26, 9 with signal line)
5 - Momentum (defaults to 14 period)

Best of luck, and please forward on ideas or suggestions on how to use it.