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Silent Service Method

  • #14,161
  • Jul 11, 2012 4:38pm Jul 11, 2012 4:38pm
Been short of this pair, but with the candle forming, I am closing out my shorts, and looking to sell again a bit higher......
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  • #14,162
  • Jul 11, 2012 4:47pm Jul 11, 2012 4:47pm
Quoting clockwork71
Been short of this pair, but with the candle forming, I am closing out my shorts, and looking to sell again a bit higher......
I've had a similar play on the E/U and closed mine out yesterday. Wedge'ish action and a slow down in price as we approach the next daily and weekly demand zones. Still a little bit more to drop there, but it's time for a retrace.
  • #14,163
  • Jul 12, 2012 7:06am Jul 12, 2012 7:06am
Quoting Venice
I've had a similar play on the E/U and closed mine out yesterday. Wedge'ish action and a slow down in price as we approach the next daily and weekly demand zones. Still a little bit more to drop there, but it's time for a retrace.
Ug. Premature exit as always. haha. I get annoyed with price jacking around for a few days and I always end up exiting too soon. Oh well, I started selling aussie last night. Lets see if this thing can turn the Daily. It will still a 250 pip'er trade...
  • #14,164
  • Jul 12, 2012 7:37am Jul 12, 2012 7:37am
Quoting clockwork71
Been short of this pair, but with the candle forming, I am closing out my shorts, and looking to sell again a bit higher......
The GBPCHF is the same but flipped around. 1.51 breakthrough and retest.
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  • #14,165
  • Jul 12, 2012 10:35am Jul 12, 2012 10:35am
Quoting C-12
The GBPCHF is the same but flipped around. 1.51 breakthrough and retest.
Yes, this is a chart that has caught my attention as well.........looks like a classic move waiting to happen....
  • #14,166
  • Jul 12, 2012 10:36am Jul 12, 2012 10:36am
Quoting Venice
Ug. Premature exit as always. haha. I get annoyed with price jacking around for a few days and I always end up exiting too soon. Oh well, I started selling aussie last night. Lets see if this thing can turn the Daily. It will still a 250 pip'er trade...
Funny, I shorted the AUD/USD last night as well. Great minds think alike I suppose.
  • #14,167
  • Jul 12, 2012 10:43am Jul 12, 2012 10:43am
Eurcad looks interesting.
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  • #14,168
  • Jul 12, 2012 12:39pm Jul 12, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Eurcad looks interesting.
This was actually brought up by a new member of my site yesterday. The monthly chart tells the whole story I think.....

Technically speaking, we are roughly 7 pips below the support level at the moment. There is a really good chance I will short this pair if we can get a little follow through.
  • #14,169
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:23pm Jul 12, 2012 1:23pm
Quoting stewrigh
This is the sort of PA I like

Attachment
Anyone still in this?

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  • #14,170
  • Jul 12, 2012 1:27pm Jul 12, 2012 1:27pm
Quoting stewrigh
Yep It's been a good run but all trends eventually end - maybe nows a bit late to join the party.
Party still in full swing.

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  • #14,171
  • Jul 12, 2012 2:03pm Jul 12, 2012 2:03pm
Quoting stewrigh
Party still in full swing.

Attachment

Yeah there was a report that wheat was in trouble by the USDA.......should continue to rise over time I suppose. However, pay attention: These moves tend to have vicious pullbacks......
  • #14,172
  • Jul 12, 2012 8:58pm Jul 12, 2012 8:58pm
Quoting clockwork71
Yeah there was a report that wheat was in trouble by the USDA.......should continue to rise over time I suppose. However, pay attention: These moves tend to have vicious pullbacks......
Agreed.....if we get rain then these could turn around rapidly.....Soybeans perhaps the most potential for reversal.....corn and wheat have been damaged beyond repair even with perfect weather conditions from now....very volatile at the moment as with any 'weather driven' market.
  • #14,173
  • Jul 12, 2012 10:07pm Jul 12, 2012 10:07pm
Quoting mypipbull
Agreed.....if we get rain then these could turn around rapidly.....Soybeans perhaps the most potential for reversal.....corn and wheat have been damaged beyond repair even with perfect weather conditions from now....very volatile at the moment as with any 'weather driven' market.
Yes, I think soybeans could be the most interesting trade in the ags at the moment. It really hasn't taken off yet, simply because beans are much more hearty than the grains, and it takes more to kill them. If we get rain soon, and we are......this could be a market that sells off a bit. But if we don't get enough.....this will be the next massive bull run.

Interestingly enough, if the beans get wiped out - they are saying the meats will spike like crazy......as the grains AND beans aren't around for them to feed. As for hay and grasses, they are non existent at this point.

None the less, I still think the big money will be made on the fall. Not saying you can't make money on the way up - most certainly you can.....but when these markets fall - man it gets ugly fast.
  • #14,174
  • Jul 12, 2012 11:31pm Jul 12, 2012 11:31pm
Quoting clockwork71
Yes, I think soybeans ......... - man it gets ugly fast.
Yep.....meats and grains all intertwined. These are volatile times.....
  • #14,175
  • Jul 13, 2012 11:19am Jul 13, 2012 11:19am
Another opportunity for more shorts on the euro? I see we closed below the most recent swing low on the H4.

Still no break of supply. lol.
  • #14,176
  • Jul 13, 2012 1:18pm Jul 13, 2012 1:18pm
I see that the CEO of PFGBest has admitted to forging bank statements for 20 years. Wow....just wow.

And to think this was one of the more respected retail brokers.
  • #14,177
  • Jul 13, 2012 1:18pm Jul 13, 2012 1:18pm
Quoting Venice
Another opportunity for more shorts on the euro? I see we closed below the most recent swing low on the H4.

Still no break of supply. lol.
I think we are simply seeing a lot of short covering at this point. Friday is a good day to do it.
  • #14,178
  • Jul 13, 2012 4:52pm Jul 13, 2012 4:52pm
Quoting clockwork71
I think we are simply seeing a lot of short covering at this point. Friday is a good day to do it.
I have never really looked at the movements in relation to taking profit. Out of curiosity, is their a way to actually identify if the profit taking is just people clearing out and preparing for the next leg down, or if the profit taking it happening so that they can reverse their positions in the market? Any tell tale signs?
  • #14,179
  • Jul 14, 2012 1:50am Jul 14, 2012 1:50am
Quoting Venice
I have never really looked at the movements in relation to taking profit. Out of curiosity, is their a way to actually identify if the profit taking is just people clearing out and preparing for the next leg down, or if the profit taking it happening so that they can reverse their positions in the market? Any tell tale signs?
Since no info is available in the Spot FX for such things (as far as I am aware due to the nature of the market), the best proxy would be to look at the Futures COT data.
Although only released weekly you can gauge directional sentiment by looking at they way the 'Funds' are positioned and the total amount of open positions they are holding. It separates their Long and Short positions. For example if their shorts are decreasing and their longs are somewhat unchanged then the move is most likely profit taking, i.e. potential to sell a rally. If their shorts are decreasing AND their longs increasing then there may be a reversal or at least a deeper retracement under way.

Since we can only see these figures weekly it is more helpful as a longer term or bigger picture analysis. Still pretty useful in any case imho.
The FX futures contracts and the spot FX markets are pretty closely related in regards to movement.

Not sure if it was of any use but something to think about.
  • #14,180
  • Jul 14, 2012 7:01am Jul 14, 2012 7:01am
Probably the best answer, yes. As for figuring out what happened yesterday, this is more along the lines of experience I think....

Quoting mypipbull
Since no info is available in the Spot FX for such things (as far as I am aware due to the nature of the market), the best proxy would be to look at the Futures COT data.
Although only released weekly you can gauge directional sentiment by looking at they way the 'Funds' are positioned and the total amount of open positions they are holding. It separates their Long and Short positions. For example if their shorts are decreasing and their longs are somewhat unchanged then the move is most likely profit taking, i.e. potential to sell a rally. If their...
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