ThE GriND

Purpose:

1. To organize my trading approach
2. To write down and further develop new ideas

Approach:

1. Trade daily and weekly chart support and resistance
2. Add positions as close to the initial rejection at support and resistance


Theoretical Probabilities:

Approach 1.
1. Average 1 successful trade a month yielding minimum 20:1 RR
2. Average 1 successful trade per quarter yielding minimum 40:1 RR

Approach 2.
1. Average additional 2 to 3 trades per month averaging 15:1 RR
2. Average additional 2 to 3 trades per quarter averaging 30:1 RR

Stop Loss: 25 pips (max)
Frequency: 20 trades per month (max)

Gross Profit = 100 per quarter

20% success rate
80% loss rate



IDEAS:

1. Reduce loss rate by incorporating a percentage of 0 trades



GOAL:

April 2012 - 20:1 RR trade + 2 X 15:1 RR trade

March is ending and I'm trying to get a position in for April.

The following is the first short trade. I'm hoping to see a reversal on the daily candle chart respecting the down trending resistance line.

I'm going with really cheap positions and looking to add if the opportunity arises.

At current levels I'm more interested in shorts.


Hopefully I can establish a trade in the 1.3350 to 1.3400 level with the price subsequently dropping out of the upward sloping channel.

Butchered the anticipated short at 1.3350 level. I'm pretty annoyed with that.

Life goes on. My stops were very tight and I couldn't re-enter when i wanted to

I've reverted back to undisciplined and stupid trades.

Either way it is a very important experience because I realize how quickly good work can go down the drain by varying approaches.

Ultimately I haven't effectively started stacking positions as the trend develops. Personally I think it's the best time to experience high success rates and great reward to risk ratios.

Unfortunately identifying a trend is not the most objective thing in the world.

In order to add new positions effectively I think it's important to understand the speed of which higher highs occur. On the other side it's just as important to understand the range of the lows during the period and retracements.

I'm going to look at some daily bars to see if I can get some significance out of these thoughts. If I don't act like an idiot I will post the excel and the results of my analysis.

As much as I love MAs, price moves in square blocks and horizontal lines. The question is how often should minor support lines be traded in an uptrend.

My expectancy has dropped considerably because I'm chasing trades all over the place.

Issues to correct:

1. Focus on daily chart
2. Avoid chasing counter trend trades
3. Predominantly use limit orders

Waiting for the next 1000 point move on 3 majors. If I play this correctly I can make out with a very nice return and cover all my losses.