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  • #3,601
  • Jul 10, 2012 10:47am Jul 10, 2012 10:47am
Quoting Tyoon
Does seem like it capped it.

I am trying something out.. Looking at eu 1.2212.
For reason pointed out in the pedini chart ?

Anyway, one of the thing the i have learned watchingh charts is that even against a huge momentum a good level have an high degree of probabilty to react. [the beob on wkly is important] So maybe the lesson here is to banking profit while y can and go out at the first trouble; am i wrong Tyonn ?


[quite sure the if have taken profit around 1.2292]
Sometime the horizon disappear. Twitter: @_whiteout
  • #3,602
  • Jul 10, 2012 11:08am Jul 10, 2012 11:08am
Quoting whiteout
For reason pointed out in the pedini chart ?

Anyway, one of the thing the i have learned watchingh charts is that even against a huge momentum a good level have an high degree of probabilty to react. [the beob on wkly is important] So maybe the lesson here is to banking profit while y can and go out at the first trouble; am i wrong Tyonn ?
Nope, 2212 was calculated.. I looked back to the left then realized there was also some SR activity there and it is near the source of rally.

It's a 'strong' level but I have seen many 'strong' levels get eaten up without even a reaction. The context or 'dynamics' in which these levels exist define their true 'strength'.

ATM in my view, price is extending to the down-side.. just like price extended to the upside to 1.275.

As for trade management.. tbh I am not the best person to ask about that.
  • #3,603
  • Jul 10, 2012 11:51am Jul 10, 2012 11:51am
Quoting whiteout
For reason pointed out in the pedini chart ?

Anyway, one of the thing the i have learned watchingh charts is that even against a huge momentum a good level have an high degree of probabilty to react. [the beob on wkly is important] So maybe the lesson here is to banking profit while y can and go out at the first trouble; am i wrong Tyonn ?


[quite sure the if have taken profit around 1.2292]
If you know where price is sure to bounce, ie. a big decision point, it's totally up to oneself whether one can bear to see price come back towards one's entry.

I suppose if you have great conviction in the bigger picture setup, or your screen time is limited, you can set and forget.

So many variables.....................
  • #3,604
  • Jul 10, 2012 11:56am Jul 10, 2012 11:56am
Quoting Sebastiaan76
would this be a valid QM setup?

amazing how it co-incides with base of a pole
nice view there, It is "possible", but better to watch price "arrival" and make sure it arrive @ a fresh Demand in related TF you see the PA.

Simplicity Is The Ultimate Sophistication ~LDV~
  • #3,605
  • Jul 10, 2012 1:32pm Jul 10, 2012 1:32pm
Quoting Ifmyante
XM

It's really been playing on my mind lots about that au trade long ago

At the time, I hadn't been watching au, and gave you a quick answer without studying the charts fully.

If you look back, there was a beautiful 3Drive into that supply on the m5.
Had I checked that TF, I would've given a far more affirmative response.

I'm truly gutted you didn't make a killing on that trade - I won't answer again without proper consideration.

Best

If
Donīt be IF, I know youīre a busy person and that you donīt have the oppertunity to reply to every post properly that is addressed to you. You must be a very good and sincere person indeed as such small matters bothers you I did btw score some descent pips from that AU/trade
Pipcrawler
  • #3,606
  • Jul 10, 2012 1:36pm Jul 10, 2012 1:36pm
Quoting xmzhang
Donīt be IF, I know youīre a busy person and that you donīt have the oppertunity to reply to every post properly that is addressed to you. You must be a very good and sincere person indeed as such small matters bothers you I did btw score some descent pips from that AU/trade
  • #3,607
  • Jul 10, 2012 1:47pm Jul 10, 2012 1:47pm
Quoting FX.Sniffer
The reason I didn't use a SL in above post is the higher supply zone (level on top of level) even though it had a +100pips prior to a -275pips DD, breaking risk management rules, still I've never been so relaxed with such a DD as currently I'm since learning the S&D/PIE
Quoting FX.Sniffer
emene will like this, so am gonna copy his words from his AG blog with a little tweak

Finally price arrived and landed peacefully to my 1st TP zone after six trading days, closed the nearest two orders and the remaining two shall follow shortly.... hopefully.


PS. thanks a lot HiddenGap and emene
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Sniffing Snake's Tracks...
  • #3,608
  • Jul 10, 2012 1:52pm Jul 10, 2012 1:52pm
Quoting xmzhang
You must be a very good and sincere person
+1
Hello.
  • #3,609
  • Edited 3:06pm Jul 10, 2012 2:50pm | Edited 3:06pm
Here you go. Put these two tools in your bag and smile. I could say that SR is the trapped SD traders getting out, thus reversing their orders, and SD zones new orders defining new values of interest.

Quoting emene
I value very much all the debate on SD and SR and PPZ. I have a different opinion as this question has been haunting me for ages. Sometimes, often should I say, the biggest moves down will start at a previous support become resistance whereas the pure supply is 100 pips higher.

In the end, as we all know it, price will reach this highest supply zone because flags fill poles, but it is worth to be able to identify important S/R points that work often to the pixel to profit from those trades too and not only S/D.

I have worked a lot on this with...
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Hello.
  • #3,610
  • Jul 10, 2012 3:22pm Jul 10, 2012 3:22pm
This is what i saw but only after it happens.Correct me if im wrong.

1st pic ) in H4 the expected demand level( 1st June NFP) got breached with a strong bear candle. So the base is no longer valid (voided)

2nd pic) since its voided, price has to find buyers or sellers to continue its direction up or down. So it created a swap level. In the range of the used to be demand base, we spotted a couple of smaller base( seen from m30 n below) So price decided to go up at the start of the week but its compressing. and the highest base in the range of the voided demand base turns to be a supply base and thats why price drops.

If this is correct then i have a question if anyone could answer. Based on the PA , most are looking to long this pair including me. How to train my eyes and confidence to trade this kinda hidden level? And yes i longed the qm but got stopped out.
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  • #3,611
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:04pm Jul 10, 2012 4:04pm
Quoting emene
I could say that SR is the trapped SD traders getting out, thus reversing their orders, and SD zones new orders defining new values of interest.
hmmm I like it
Sniffing Snake's Tracks...
  • #3,612
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:04pm Jul 10, 2012 4:04pm
Quoting emene
Here you go. Put these two tools in your bag and smile. I could say that SR is the trapped SD traders getting out, thus reversing their orders, and SD zones new orders defining new values of interest.
Hi Emene,

I trade the flip of zones more often then just standard supply/demand, but I have always read price at these as simply demand becoming supply, or supply becoming demand.

The reason I like them so much, is that it is the very definition of a reversal in the current trend (whatever TF you are looking at). Lets say price is currently bullish, and is continually doing RBR's. Sweet trend, buy till the cows come home. Then all of a sudden we see a DBD. Price has blown through demand and this area should now act like supply.

Unfortunately, sometimes this area holds, and sometimes it doesn't. You are not actually wrong until the supply near the most recent higher high is broken, so that can cause issues on it's own. But the idea is that DBD's will now continue through, and your risk is the high.

This is the core style to my trend trending. Very simple, very easy to spot the reversals. Even more important, the risks are clearly defined. Although, sometimes I will enter on the demand turned supply and play the risk from that. If price wants to go higher but still not invalidate the DBD, i'll try again a little higher. Nothing wrong with that.

This is a little hard to picture, i'll try and get some example charts up later tonight. As you may or may not know. I'm a swing trader so it is of the utmost importance that I am in the direction of the current flow. Counter swings are painful, and just generally not worth it. More often then not, its far more useful just to hold through the retrace, or take a bit of profit to buy lower/sell higher.

What was the last zone defeated? Supply? Then were bullish. If it was demand, then i'm bearish.

Simples.
  • #3,613
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:25pm Jul 10, 2012 4:25pm
Quoting Luska
If this is correct then i have a question if anyone could answer. Based on the PA , most are looking to long this pair including me. How to train my eyes and confidence to trade this kinda hidden level? And yes i longed the qm but got stopped out.
I'm not sure if this would answer your question but I'd like to see any bullish price behavior on LTF to be confirmed either by price shooting out of the blue demand zone, or better the price would decline deeper into the two orange doted horizontal lines before shooting out of the blue demand zone.
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  • #3,614
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:44pm Jul 10, 2012 4:44pm
Hey Emene,
I use both definitions, the definition of S/R according to the JAMES-thread and the definition of S/D according to the PIE-thread in harmonie with each other, for me there's is no wrong or correct definition. I mainly use both definitions together to trade bull- and beartrap setups, this afternoon there were 3 very nice examples :
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Pipcrawler
  • #3,615
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:49pm Jul 10, 2012 4:49pm
Quoting xmzhang
I use both definitions, the definition of S/R according to the JAMES-thread and the definition aof S/D according to the PIE-thread in harmonie with each other, there's is no wrong or correct definition. I mainly use both definitions together to trade bull- and beartrap setups, this afternoon there were 3 very nice examples :
U/J a bull- and beartrap setup
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Pipcrawler
  • #3,616
  • Jul 10, 2012 5:14pm Jul 10, 2012 5:14pm
Quoting emene
Here you go. Put these two tools in your bag and smile. I could say that SR is the trapped SD traders getting out, thus reversing their orders, and SD zones new orders defining new values of interest.
Nice to see some spoiler from the new AG.

Before anythingh elese could you give me a sanity check, just to see if i have understood.
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Sometime the horizon disappear. Twitter: @_whiteout
  • #3,617
  • Jul 10, 2012 5:32pm Jul 10, 2012 5:32pm
Quoting whiteout
Nice to see some spoiler from the new AG.

Before anythingh elese could you give me a sanity check, just to see if i have understood.
This is superb. I never saw it like this before.
  • #3,618
  • Edited 5:43pm Jul 10, 2012 5:40pm | Edited 5:43pm
Quoting whiteout
Nice to see some spoiler from the new AG.

Before anythingh elese could you give me a sanity check, just to see if i have understood.
I assume you wonna get to this...and ask whats the difference!
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  • #3,619
  • Edited 6:09pm Jul 10, 2012 6:01pm | Edited 6:09pm
Quoting xmzhang
Hey Emene,
I use both definitions, the definition of S/R according to the JAMES-thread and the definition of S/D according to the PIE-thread in harmonie with each other, for me there's is no wrong or correct definition. I mainly use both definitions together to trade bull- and beartrap setups, this afternoon there were 3 very nice examples :
Quoting xmzhang
U/J a bull- and beartrap setup
Hi xmzhang, I hope you don't mind I've redrawn the S/D zones on your charts as it should be drawn or at least as per my understanding from sam's and PIE teachings, so actually you don't need the SR/PPZ in these specific cases. however, it doesn't harm to have it as a confluence.

sorry guys if I forced myself..it's the redbull effect now its my bed time.
cheers,
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  • #3,620
  • Jul 10, 2012 6:25pm Jul 10, 2012 6:25pm
Quoting FX.Sniffer
I assume you wonna get to this...and ask whats the difference!
It'll be interesting to see whether it bounces from the decision point or the affirmation point here

If it reaches the upper, it'll still need alot of bear pressure to get down through the base it's forming now
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