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  • #701
  • Edited 2:12pm Jun 12, 2012 1:59pm | Edited 2:12pm
Quoting dfumagalli
A possible evolution of price for USDJPY

Anyone feels like to explain the WPD-WPG process behind it?

Would shorting at a price action pattern at 80 be safe? Why?

What is the other important pattern to see, that I omitted?
Hi dfumagalli

I apologise in advance....

Weekly Chart

Weekly bar closes above 79.55 - price could go higher to meet resistance at BRN 80.00 – at this point we would still be waiting to see WPD

Daily
Price is in a down trend LH / LL and could be completing another retracement.


Possibilities of the last Lower high being broken with a Higher High to indicate a possible trend change on the daily chart. A HH would require weekly bar closing above weekly resistance line of 79.55


Possibilities - WPG


Weekly bar eventually closes down below 79.55, allowing to go lower and meeting resistance from top channel trend line marked on the daily and maybe convergence with further support from monthly resistance line at 78.200


Price could then retrace higherto resistance 78.99
We then look for a price action trading opportunity - daily chart to enter a sell on the market.

Would shorting at a price action pattern at 80 be safe? Why?

No lower weekly resistance to near no money management!

What is the other important pattern to see, that I omitted?

W pattern - Head and shoulders drawn!

Peter.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy2.png Size: 26 KB
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“A setback is a setup for a comeback.”
  • #702
  • Jun 12, 2012 2:10pm Jun 12, 2012 2:10pm
Hi Dfrumagalli

I'll have a go at your quizz :

WPD : on the W graph, we see that P left RM1 southwards in May, only to rebound on the top of RM2.

WPG : P is heading back to bottom of RM1 (80 level, BRN and M and W level), and might (will ?) be kicked back southwards again.

I don't see any other pattern than the triangle visible in D timeframe, which caused P to drive south in May. The apex of the triangle has been forming a resistance for the last 3 days.

Thanks again for sharing.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy daily.gif Size: 28 KB
Chance favors the prepared mind (Louis Pasteur)
  • #703
  • Edited 3:06pm Jun 12, 2012 2:31pm | Edited 3:06pm
Quoting Bluejay
Hi Dfrumagalli

I'll have a go at your quizz :

WPD : on the W graph, we see that P left RM1 southwards in May, only to rebound on the top of RM2.

WPG : P is heading back to bottom of RM1 (80 level, BRN and M and W level), and might (will ?) be kicked back southwards again.

I don't see any other pattern than the triangle visible in D timeframe, which caused P to drive south in May. The apex of the triangle has been forming a resistance for the last 3 days.

Thanks again for sharing.
Ah... I see that triangle now Bluejay.

Peter
“A setback is a setup for a comeback.”
  • #704
  • Jun 12, 2012 2:47pm Jun 12, 2012 2:47pm
Quoting Bluejay

I don't see any other pattern than the triangle visible in D timeframe, .
Look at dynamic chanell.
I think there is h&S pattern.

Regards.
  • #705
  • Jun 13, 2012 9:29am Jun 13, 2012 9:29am
@marshy
"W pattern - Head and shoulders drawn!"

I did not post a W chart, but you had good eye to spot that pattern.
It may also be considered a triple bottom and has the same effects - but less reliable than an inverted head and shoulders.


@Bluejay
Congratulations on spotting the triangle!
Those who may spot these patterns on the M and W chart are well setup for very profitable trades!


Here follows a more detailed chart.

Notice how the bottom RM is a RM because 2 (or more) swings hit the same price level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-06-13_USDJPY_D_01.png Size: 43 KB
  • #706
  • Jun 13, 2012 12:42pm Jun 13, 2012 12:42pm
Thanks Dfumagalli for the additionnal info.

So, getting back to the 80 level :
- has already rejected P, on May 22-23
- 80 is the pivot line of your 3rd RM, which is like a cement block (don't know how to say better) in between your 2nd and 4th RM. This 3rd RM should act as a strong resistance as a whole.

Thnks again for sharing
Chance favors the prepared mind (Louis Pasteur)
  • #707
  • Jun 13, 2012 4:11pm Jun 13, 2012 4:11pm
Quoting dfumagalli
@marshy
"W pattern - Head and shoulders drawn!"

I did not post a W chart, but you had good eye to spot that pattern.
It may also be considered a triple bottom and has the same effects - but less reliable than an inverted head and shoulders.


@Bluejay
Congratulations on spotting the triangle!
Those who may spot these patterns on the M and W chart are well setup for very profitable trades!


Here follows a more detailed chart.

Notice how the bottom RM is a RM because 2 (or more) swings hit the same price level.
Thanks dfumagalli

I appreciate yours and fxgroups posts and teachings.

Slightly off topic, whats that trendSqueezer indicator for?

Regards
Peter.
“A setback is a setup for a comeback.”
  • #708
  • Jun 14, 2012 3:37am Jun 14, 2012 3:37am
Quoting marshy
Thanks dfumagalli

I appreciate yours and fxgroups posts and teachings.

Slightly off topic, whats that trendSqueezer indicator for?

Regards
Peter.
Heh I had to look up what that thing was.
If you Google you'll indeed find this "trading system" sporting the same "odometer" thing I use but it's not related with it.

It's just a bar timer, one of the few that work on the weekly and monthly charts. Since I use 3-4 different MT4 platforms, and my country daylight savings love to desynchronize against everywhere else, I use it so I know how much time is left before the next day / week starts, so I get my analyses ready in time. As you know, the trades have to be initiated with closed bars, the best time to do so is right after the next market open.
  • #709
  • Jun 30, 2012 7:49am Jun 30, 2012 7:49am
Hi fxgroup, I'm practising this method for long time. Thanks you alot for this thread. I'd like to post some pictures too. Could U repair my mistakes?
(M) I'm not sure if the Monthly resistence is drawn corretly. Did the price closed above it or below it?
(W) From Monthly chart there is downtrend in range market. Could we trade the retracement here?
(D) It is still in range market. Could I wait till 1.26985 and then sell?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #710
  • Jul 1, 2012 12:49pm Jul 1, 2012 12:49pm
Quoting danos
Hi fxgroup, I'm practising this method for long time. Thanks you alot for this thread. I'd like to post some pictures too. Could U repair my mistakes?
(M) I'm not sure if the Monthly resistence is drawn corretly. Did the price closed above it or below it?
(W) From Monthly chart there is downtrend in range market. Could we trade the retracement here?
(D) It is still in range market. Could I wait till 1.26985 and then sell?
While I am not FXGroup (he should return from vacations soon) I may give you a little answer.

M => It's correct and yes.
W => Yes, with some rigid money management.
D => In line of principle yes. These days however the market is heavily being influenced by news so you might experience very high volatility that could create very big "tails" and take your stop loss before moving the way you expected.
  • #711
  • Jul 2, 2012 3:29am Jul 2, 2012 3:29am
Quoting dfumagalli
While I am not FXGroup (he should return from vacations soon) I may give you a little answer.

M => It's correct and yes.
W => Yes, with some rigid money management.
D => In line of principle yes. These days however the market is heavily being influenced by news so you might experience very high volatility that could create very big "tails" and take your stop loss before moving the way you expected.
Thank you!
  • #712
  • Edited 3:42am Jul 4, 2012 12:59am | Edited 3:42am
Keeping an eye on EURGBP, fxgroup had a previous chart in this pair and I have since been watching it.

This pair is at important levels, a RM block can be seen to the left. We will see how P behaves in this area.

If you do want to buy/sell EUR or GBP against USD ( even long-term ), then watching EURGBP to see which of them is stronger or weaker relative to USD is helpful.

Best wishes to all and welcome Danos !


Michael
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Be like water.
  • #713
  • Jul 4, 2012 3:37am Jul 4, 2012 3:37am
Hi Michael
Just came back from a wonderful vacantion.....!
The pair is stuck in a tiny RM because of a M IPB IB, but the W bearish flag is something I keep an eye on !

NZDSGD....just another classical chart !...all we have to do is to wait to see out the sellers that are keeping the P into the PB bearish and born the actuall D RM !
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Nothing personal,just business
  • #714
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:47am Jul 5, 2012 8:47am
Quoting fxgroup
EURSGD and how to identify the most important S/R levels .
Let's it today..why..because this means trading with the trend !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eursgd.gif Size: 16 KB
Nothing personal,just business
  • #715
  • Jul 6, 2012 5:25am Jul 6, 2012 5:25am
Update on AUDJPY using dfumagalli´s layout for quicker overview. We see RM on higher TF quite well, with bullish weekly candles.

Fundamentally I will wait as well with this pair, if resistance of 1.400 in S&P 500 index holds and a downtrend there follows, plus next week China`s news come out poorly, then all of this bullish AUD climbing might end abruptly.

We will wait and see what WPD & WPG....:-)

Michael
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-06_1206_audjpy_M.jpg Size: 109 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-06_1211_audjpy_W.jpg Size: 119 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-06_1214_audjpy_D.jpg Size: 105 KB
Be like water.
  • #716
  • Jul 9, 2012 6:43am Jul 9, 2012 6:43am
[quote=msmarple;5819283]
Quote
Update on AUDJPY
The only problem that we DON'T have a 2MPB pattern and that mens the buyers are not enough to push the P to the R very quick...they just need anothers buyers !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #717
  • Jul 9, 2012 6:50am Jul 9, 2012 6:50am
Yes !

There were not enough buyers as you say.

Also of interest : zooming in to my 1st chart and looking closely at 3 bullish candles ( yellow arrows ) and then seeing their respective follow-through makes for a good learning experience.

The last ( 3rd ) candle did NOT close at or above the prior bearish candle, or in other words as you say correctly : it is NOT a 2 month Pinbar.

We have to watch these details already on M and W, then the follow-through on D makes MUCH more sense.

Good trading to all !

Michael
Be like water.
  • #718
  • Jul 10, 2012 7:48am Jul 10, 2012 7:48am
[quote=msmarple;5825033]
Quote
Also of interest : zooming in to my 1st chart and looking closely at 3 bullish candles ( yellow arrows ) and then seeing their respective follow-through makes for a good learning experience.

The last ( 3rd ) candle did NOT close at or above the prior bearish candle, or in other words as you say correctly : it is NOT a 2 month Pinbar.

We have to watch these details already on M and W, then the follow-through on D makes MUCH more sense.
No one couldn't have said better than you did !
Nothing personal,just business
  • #719
  • Jul 10, 2012 8:16am Jul 10, 2012 8:16am
GBPAUD.....strong overall bearish trend...within the RM the trend is bearish also...so all we have to do is to wait RET on our leves and let the P to get at ours TGs !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nothing personal,just business
  • #720
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:58am Jul 11, 2012 8:58am
Something exotic...WPD+WPG !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: et.png Size: 44 KB
Nothing personal,just business
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