I have a profitable trading strategy. Should I quit my job? | Forex Factory

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I have a profitable trading strategy. Should I quit my job?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jul 7, 2012 8:41pm Jul 7, 2012 8:41pm
Hi, I am a senior engineer in an IT company with salary about USD$60,000. I have been trading Forex/gold/oil at part time after work time for two years. I developed a good strategy and applied it (it is countertrend). For the last 15 months, it works perfectly and makes consistent profit. The system includes when to enter the market, how to set stop loss, how to set stop profit. The temporary loss can be set to 15% with margin.

The past profit is listed monthly as follows. part time trading only (manual trading after working hour).

Forex.com account:
starting fund Vs profit (USD)
2011-05 1263 +97 or 7.68% fund top up $2170
2011-06 3530 +298 or 8.44%
2011-07 3828 +257 or 6.71% fund top up $1000
2011-08 5087 +848 or 16.67%
2011-09 5936 +167 or 2.81%
2011-10 6106 +169 or 2.76%
2011-11 6275 +454 or 7.23%
2011-12 6729 +334 or 4.96%
2012-01 7066 +98 or 1.38% fund top up $34000
2012-02 41170 +6456 or 15.68%
2012-03 47626 +925 or 1.94% fund top up $10490
2012-04 59041 +1309 or 2.21% (+2943 deposit bonus)
2012-05 63295 +4261 or 6.73%
2012-06 67556 +2129 or 3.15%
2012-07 69685 +1583 or 2.27% by 07-July

15 months accumulative profit: USD 19385 +2943(deposit bonus), Total fund invested during the period $46261
15 months accumulative profit ratio if fund fix: 137.9% (product of each month profit ratio)

Oanda account:
starting fund Vs profit (USD)
2011-05 6927 +209 or 3.01%
2011-06 7147 +211 or 6.05%
2011-07 7358 +260 or 3.53%
2011-08 7620 -128 or -1.68%
2011-09 7492 +572 or 7.63%
2011-10 8065 +207 or 2.56%
2011-11 8273 +491 or 5.93%
2011-12 8765 +320 or 3.65%
Fund withdrawal and transfer to Forex.com account.
Fund deposit 14000 SGD
2012-01 14000 +649 or 4.63%
2012-02 14649 -567 or -3.87%
2012-03 14071 +231 or 1.64%
2012-04 14303 +126 or 0.88%
2012-05 14431 +668 or 4.63%
2012-06 15100 +202 or 1.33%
2012-07 15302 +84 or 0.55%

I wish to work for a firm, but they simply distrust me for my short trading experience and non-financial background. I can raise the capital to 3 times, so that I can earn my salary now. However, I have a family to support. It is very hard to decide whether trade full time. Any suggestion is appreciated. Thanks a lot.
  • #2
  • Jul 8, 2012 2:49am Jul 8, 2012 2:49am
Quoting yunben
Hi, I am a senior engineer in an IT company with salary about USD$60,000. I have been trading Forex/gold/oil at part time after work time for two years. I developed a good strategy and applied it (it is countertrend). For the last 15 months, it works perfectly and makes consistent profit. The system includes when to enter the market, how to set stop loss, how to set stop profit. The temporary loss can be set to 15% with margin.

The past profit is listed monthly as follows. part time trading only (manual trading after working hour).

Forex.com...
I too wrestle with the idea of going full time but trading can be a very lonely career. I did take 4 weeks off work and couldnt wait to get back to work. Need to ask yourself if you enjoy your work and can you do without interacting with others outside your family. Im staying as a part time trader and can still earn a full time wage from it, so my advice is to take a month off work (if you can) and see how you feel at the end of it, just my opinion some others may love trading full time from home or where ever maybe they will post with ideas to get over the boredom.
  • #3
  • Jul 8, 2012 2:52am Jul 8, 2012 2:52am
Is it a manual, discretionary strategy that you developed from lot's of screen time? If not, a change in the market could disrupt your strategy.
  • #4
  • Jul 8, 2012 3:04am Jul 8, 2012 3:04am
Based on your numbers, the strategy looks awesome - However if I were you, I would not quit my job just yet.

In these times it is always smart to have more than one source of income. This goes for everyone. Employees, full time traders, porn stars, whatever.

There is always the chance that your income source may be removed. You can insure yourself for losing a job - or being in an accident so you are unable to work - but I don't think I've seen any insurance for your broker having difficulties and suspending trading for a month. Or if you go blind from drinking some 120% Vodka - That would make trading hard!

What I would do -

Build your capital to a point where you can invest in other income producing assets - eg. a rental apartment or two then explore the possibility of going part time with your work. Consulting or contracting ect.

Then, although it probably wont match your 60k income - you'll at least have a backup should anything go horribly wrong with your trading.

Family always comes first - and if they rely on your 60k then you need to find a way to replace that before you trade full time. Otherwise you'll be putting them at risk.

Just my 2cents.

Good luck,
  • #5
  • Jul 8, 2012 3:11am Jul 8, 2012 3:11am
Hi

I am a full time trader.

I would not suggest that you go into trading full time at this juncture.
It will basically take away a part of your earnings without giving significant improvement over your salary in the short term, assuming the strategy keeps working.

From what I understand per your post, you are making profits even while keeping your job. Why kill the goose which is allowing you to increase your account size and a safety net for monthly-yearly expenses.

You need to consider: If you were trading full time without the safety net of a permanent job would you be able to generate the same results, cope with the stress? Remember when trading full time, capital protection and growth becomes the priority and the position sizing and SL levels all have to be thought over again.

I have sent you a PM.

Cheers
  • #6
  • Jul 8, 2012 3:20am Jul 8, 2012 3:20am
Quoting yunben
Hi, I am a senior engineer in an IT company with salary about USD$60,000. I have been trading Forex/gold/oil at part time after work time for two years. I developed a good strategy and applied it (it is countertrend). For the last 15 months, it works perfectly and makes consistent profit. The system includes when to enter the market, how to set stop loss, how to set stop profit. The temporary loss can be set to 15% with margin.

The past profit is listed monthly as follows. part time trading only (manual trading after working hour).

Forex.com...
If you have to ask such a question, then it's not time for you to switch to full-time trading. Only if you can "easily" get your current annual income by trading are you ready for full-time trading. Otherwise stay with your job. Dude, you are anyways making 100% a year. Give yourself a couple of years to 1) prove to yourself that the strategy is working well 2) build up the equity to a point that earning enough money to support your family is easy.
  • #7
  • Jul 8, 2012 5:55am Jul 8, 2012 5:55am
Quoting fxterrapin
Is it a manual, discretionary strategy that you developed from lot's of screen time? If not, a change in the market could disrupt your strategy.
Thanks for reply. It is a manual strategy. As a part time trader, primarily I trade short term. usually, position is closed in 30 minutes. I use a self-definition indicator and it will make a sound alert when suitable for entering the market. I don't have to always sit beside the screen all the time.

Yes. I need at least 3 times size of the capital I have now to ensure minimum 2% is enough for the living of my family. Maybe I need another year to prove the strategy. Thanks.
  • #8
  • Jul 8, 2012 5:58am Jul 8, 2012 5:58am
Just do it!
  • #9
  • Jul 8, 2012 6:09am Jul 8, 2012 6:09am
Like megajester wrote, why not take a few weeks off and try how it feels to be a full time trader. You don't have to burn your bridges...

Quoting yunben
I wish to work for a firm, but they simply distrust me for my short trading experience and non-financial background.
forget about tomorrow, just steal away into the night
  • #10
  • Jul 8, 2012 6:20am Jul 8, 2012 6:20am
Your ability to success and performans extraordinary. But I recomended you that protect present job. Because it is almost impossible earning money from Fx market, rich men also lose their capital.
  • #11
  • Jul 8, 2012 8:55am Jul 8, 2012 8:55am
to quote karate kid "patience Daniel my son!"
tradewith60
  • #12
  • Jul 8, 2012 9:10am Jul 8, 2012 9:10am
Quoting 60minuteman
to quote karate kid "patience Daniel my son!"
well, if you gonna quote something, then do it in a correct way: "patience Daniel-san"
  • #13
  • Jul 8, 2012 9:39am Jul 8, 2012 9:39am
Quoting yunben
Hi, I am a senior engineer in an IT company with salary about USD$60,000. I have been trading Forex/gold/oil at part time after work time for two years. I developed a good strategy and applied it (it is countertrend). For the last 15 months, it works perfectly and makes consistent profit. The system includes when to enter the market, how to set stop loss, how to set stop profit. The temporary loss can be set to 15% with margin.

The past profit is listed monthly as follows. part time trading only (manual trading after working hour).

Forex.com...
It's very good result to see your win percentage there. If you think that your system could go for long time you could consider for resign from your work, but I think you should try your system about 2-3 years to make sure that the system still working. It's just my opinion. Anyway if you don't mind could you share your system you are using? thanks
  • #14
  • Jul 8, 2012 9:46am Jul 8, 2012 9:46am
Quoting ronald_fsm
It's very good result to see your win percentage there. If you think that your system could go for long time you could consider for resign from your work, but I think you should try your system about 2-3 years to make sure that the system still working. It's just my opinion. Anyway if you don't mind could you share your system you are using? thanks
haha, get off your couch and develop one by yourself instead of asking strangers to give their profitable system to you.

It's like asking a successful entrepreneur to hand you over his business plan so that you can copy it. haha.
  • #15
  • Edited 12:46pm Jul 8, 2012 9:59am | Edited 12:46pm
Quoting yunben
I wish to work for a firm, but they simply distrust me for my short trading experience and non-financial background. I can raise the capital to 3 times, so that I can earn my salary now. However, I have a family to support. It is very hard to decide whether trade full time. Any suggestion is appreciated. Thanks a lot.
You could try to take a year off (sabbatical). A lot of companies offer this now a days. Have a safety net of funds and take a decision when your sabbatical is over. If your company does not offer this, wait a bit longer and if you are still profitable after a year or more beyond this point, and you are still confident enough with your strategy, then go for it. If it does not work out your resume will surely get you another job at a similar pay quickly.

This is a big decision and a whole new psychological dynamic will need to be tamed. That part is not so easy. Scared money is losing money.

All the best.
Fuck Forex Factory.Wake up people.
  • #16
  • Jul 8, 2012 10:01am Jul 8, 2012 10:01am
My strategy is very simple. It is a sure-win strategy. But it requires long time observation on different market condition, and good money management. I think if it works forever, it is very easy to earn over 30% yearly. Actually I am quite wondering why so many hedge fund can't earn over 20% yearly. I don't think one can easily copy other's strategy easily.

I know there are many good traders who earn more, but I just don't wanna lose. I only earn 10-20 pips each time. I also trade crude oil. it has different feature but still follows the strategy and very profitable.

I have only 14 days annual leave. I only trade when the market is choppy. sometimes there is no trading opportutiny in one week. Compared with trading the financial market, I am bored at engineering work. Hopefully I can start full time trading at the beginning of Y2013.


Quoting ronald_fsm
It's very good result to see your win percentage there. If you think that your system could go for long time you could consider for resign from your work, but I think you should try your system about 2-3 years to make sure that the system still working. It's just my opinion. Anyway if you don't mind could you share your system you are using? thanks
  • #17
  • Jul 8, 2012 10:15am Jul 8, 2012 10:15am
This sounds scary....

Quoting yunben
My strategy is very simple. It is a sure-win strategy... but I just don't wanna lose. I only earn 10-20 pips each time.
perhaps you should include in-trade drawdowns and worst drawdowns in your performance statistics.

So, you've got about a year at Forex.com and Oanda....averaging a little better than 2% per month...

Honestly, what was your worst in-trade drawdown on either account, time in-trade to recovery,
and worst consecutive number of losing trades??

It sounds as if you have a very high win-rate strategy... but when the losses come....how large are they?
(Feb 2012, you were down -3.87% for the month.... what was the maximum drawdown that month?)
  • #18
  • Jul 8, 2012 10:27am Jul 8, 2012 10:27am
Hola from singapore
  • #19
  • Jul 8, 2012 10:38am Jul 8, 2012 10:38am
Both those accounts were traded during the same market conditions generally.
Market conditions can change year to year.

Statistically significant...

Those performance numbers.... are they based upon at least 500 trades?
500 trades would be the absolute minimum I would consider statistically significant for a high win-rate system (+70% winning trades).

Anything less, and you haven't seen your worst case scenarios...
and those losses will come....

You can be very "lucky" within 500 trades and not have many losing trades or sequences appear
.... but they will arrive within 1000 trades or more.

When you are down 8% for the month, averaging 2% gains when positive,
you've suddenly got 4 months of work just to get "flat" again.
  • #20
  • Jul 8, 2012 10:41am Jul 8, 2012 10:41am
Quoting Intu
This sounds scary....



perhaps you should include in-trade drawdowns and worst drawdowns in your performance statistics.

So, you've got about a year at Forex.com and Oanda....averaging a little better than 2% per month...

Honestly, what was your worst in-trade drawdown on either account, time in-trade to recovery, and worst consecutive number of losing trades??

You could end up like this person, became a Trade Leader at Currensee after 8 months of enviable performance, had +$100,000 under management and soon after put up a -41%...
I use two accounts, one is Oanda for aggressive and trial strategy. The other is Forex.com. Usually trade the same currency pair. There is one max temporary 25% draw down in Feb, 2012 when I traded E/J, I worked over weekend. Finally it turns back and earn 15% 1 hour later just before I went to work on monday. That is a lesson for me. Although I know my strategy can work even with this hard time, I would limit my temporary loss to 15% at most. After that, I win each trading round and never allow over 10% temporary draw down during the last 5 months. I only met twice I have to work overnight in the past.

I think I have traded over 1000 rounds winning rate over 75%.
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