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Silent Service Method

  • #14,121
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:32pm Jul 5, 2012 8:32pm
Quoting mypipbull
Call me crazy but I am Long Heating Oil (correlated to Crude) currently in profit and although I see resistance in front of me, fundamentally on the COT front at least this market (similar to Crude) could go higher if the bottom is in fact in.......flip side is I can see this as a sell the rallies move as well.....
I would love to chime in, but I must admit total ignorance to the heating oil market........

I do know that the natural gas market all of the sudden looks ready to break out......
  • #14,122
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:33pm Jul 5, 2012 8:33pm
new blog post.
  • #14,123
  • Jul 5, 2012 9:10pm Jul 5, 2012 9:10pm
Quoting clockwork71
I would love to chime in, but I must admit total ignorance to the heating oil market........

I do know that the natural gas market all of the sudden looks ready to break out......
Fair enough on HO.
As for Nat Gas its very close to that $3ish we have been talking about. If we close above that I will be buying a dip and holding.......
  • #14,124
  • Jul 5, 2012 9:12pm Jul 5, 2012 9:12pm
Quoting clockwork71
The wheat and corn markets offer a lot of possibilities at the moment. I believe the Brazilian crop and the Russian one (wheat) is falling apart as well????

The corn crop, something that is a big deal here in Ohio - as well as Hondas - is still surviving. However, we are approaching very precarious levels of disintegration at the moment.

In situations like this - commodities are a great market to be in. It's basically a matter of when you buy. There is no "sell".
A saying springs to mind....."rain makes the grain"........
  • #14,125
  • Jul 7, 2012 9:32am Jul 7, 2012 9:32am
actually not true ,spinning top has lots of meanings depending on location market condition ,

"spinning tops represent indecision"


Quoting stewrigh
Yep and monthly is showing a spinning top which is bullish.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #14,126
  • Jul 7, 2012 9:50am Jul 7, 2012 9:50am
nothing bullish to report ,major tl taken a few months back ,decending triangle ?generally bearish

Descending triangle
The descending triangle is the opposite of the ascending triangle in that it gives a bearish signal to chartists, suggesting that the price will trend downward upon completion of the pattern. The descending triangle is constructed with a flat support line and a downward-sloping resistance line.

Similar to the ascending triangle, this pattern is generally considered to be a continuation pattern, as it is preceded by a downward trendline. But again, it can be found in an uptrend.

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articl...ngTriangle.gif Figure 3: Descending triangle
The first part of this pattern is the fall to a low that then finds a level of support, which sends the price to a high. The next move is a second test of the previous support level, which again sends the stock higher - but this time to a lower level than the previous move higher. This is repeated until the price is unable to hold the support level and falls below, resuming the downtrend.

This pattern indicates that buyers are trying to take the security higher, but continue to face resistance. After several attempts to push the stock higher, the buyers fade and the sellers overpower them, which sends the price lower.


Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/universi...#ixzz1zwscNNoQ



Quoting stewrigh
Not sure about the ugly bit.

I think silver looks more bullish than it has for a long time - you watch it tank now I've said that lol.

Look at the signs....

1. Spinning top - monthly
2. Lower trend line.
3. Support at 26
4. 61 fib at 25
5. Descending triangle.
6. Long term trend is UP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold monthly 07-07-12.png Size: 26 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #14,127
  • Jul 7, 2012 10:01am Jul 7, 2012 10:01am
Quoting Bones
nothing bullish to report ,major tl taken a few months back ,decending triangle ?generally bearish
Good points Bones and I agree. Nice to see your charts again.
  • #14,128
  • Jul 7, 2012 10:33am Jul 7, 2012 10:33am
Silver in my eyes is more bearish than gold

Quoting Bones
Also no comment ,lol
except

All them dojis ,were indeed bearish
Im waiting
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silver w1 7-7-12.png Size: 26 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #14,129
  • Jul 7, 2012 6:37pm Jul 7, 2012 6:37pm
I think both precious metals are simply waiting around......trying to figure out if the world's financial system is fucked, or more importantly - the world's economies. If we see a meltdown in Europe - the Dollar is the first thing that people will buy, and that will push these prices down quick. However, in the gold markets......


The $1,500 level is absolutely critical. If it gives way, it will fall like a rock. However, I would also think sooner or later that the gold bugs would be buying.....for those of you that have been around long enough - maybe I will finally get my retest of $1,000?

Anyway, I am completely flat of this market(s) as it simply looks like a great place to lose money at the moment, and has been that way for a couple of months.

Chris
  • #14,130
  • Jul 8, 2012 3:36am Jul 8, 2012 3:36am
Quoting clockwork71
I think both precious metals are simply waiting around......trying to figure out if the world's financial system is fucked, or more importantly - the world's economies. If we see a meltdown in Europe - the Dollar is the first thing that people will buy, and that will push these prices down quick. However, in the gold markets......

Anyway, I am completely flat of this market(s) as it simply looks like a great place to lose money at the moment, and has been that way for a couple of months.

Chris
This is how I feel..and I do think it is fucked.


This seems to be a regular occurrence, it seems as if its been like this for an age, its obvious most of the IB / Funds think the same, Judging by their performance they don't know shit either.

In my opinion its a brave man to post charts at the moment predicting where its all going to go, I think the "let it show us approach" is far safer.

Once a month I have a card game, around a mates hse ( texas holdem ) The scenario is similar, right ?, until all Economies show there hands and we have complete transparency on "who's in for what" this shit is going to carry on..

As for trading its snatch and grab time, get what you can..The minimum of opportunity's that do arise, grab with both hands...

Anyway, post NFP looks like a safe haven play........or is it ?
Memories caught in time but never forgotten
  • #14,131
  • Jul 8, 2012 4:02am Jul 8, 2012 4:02am
The eur has passed target ,next I think we must look to 2.0700 ,possible retrace last week move which was very bearish



Quoting Bones
Yes Eur is in trouble till 2.1000
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur lfx 8-7-12 d1.gif Size: 27 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #14,132
  • Jul 8, 2012 4:39am Jul 8, 2012 4:39am
I really can not see anything bullish silver ,spinning top there yes support at 26 ,but nothing bullish off it ,I see some large bear candles tho ,which makes me think formation is correct
bullish pushes rejected



Quoting clockwork71
I think both precious metals are simply waiting around......trying to figure out if the world's financial system is fucked, or more importantly - the world's economies. If we see a meltdown in Europe - the Dollar is the first thing that people will buy, and that will push these prices down quick. However, in the gold markets......


The $1,500 level is absolutely critical. If it gives way, it will fall like a rock. However, I would also think sooner or later that the gold bugs would be buying.....for those of you that have been around long...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silver monthly 8-7-12.png Size: 26 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #14,133
  • Jul 8, 2012 5:11am Jul 8, 2012 5:11am
might be easier to see on 12 months ,no way were going back to 50 without fall in my eyes
we retraced that 12 months
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12 months silver.png Size: 17 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #14,134
  • Jul 8, 2012 5:27am Jul 8, 2012 5:27am
Quoting Bones
actually not true ,spinning top has lots of meanings depending on location market condition ,

"spinning tops represent indecision"
Exactly so...And in a downtrend a spinning top is normally bullish.
  • #14,135
  • Jul 8, 2012 5:43am Jul 8, 2012 5:43am
My take on PM's hasn't changed and I think I might have mentioned this before.....

But Gold and Silver are a proxy vote for the global economy.

If you think everything is wonderful and all is well in Europe - buy the Euro and sell PM's.

If you think the US can repay it's $14t debt without further debasing the dollar sell PM's and buy greenbacks.

If you believe either of the above - I got a bridge I'd like to sell you lol.
  • #14,136
  • Jul 8, 2012 6:02am Jul 8, 2012 6:02am
No stu really its not ,colour of spinning top ? ,really unless this month ends up bullish you must read as continuation

Quoting stewrigh
Exactly so...And in a downtrend a spinning top is normally bullish.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #14,137
  • Jul 8, 2012 6:06am Jul 8, 2012 6:06am
Thats a mighty long wick ,but up against a bullish year prior ,these things take time ,some traders they will be buying still ,cause thats what you do with silver


Quoting Bones
might be easier to see on 12 months ,no way were going back to 50 without fall in my eyes
we retraced that 12 months
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #14,138
  • Jul 8, 2012 6:28am Jul 8, 2012 6:28am
Quoting j4d
Anyway, post NFP looks like a safe haven play........or is it ?
Maybe. I also think some of the move has to do with the fact that the Fed might hold off on QE3 as well based upon the fact that the jobs number was weak - but not that weak.
  • #14,139
  • Jul 8, 2012 6:30am Jul 8, 2012 6:30am
Quoting Bones
might be easier to see on 12 months ,no way were going back to 50 without fall in my eyes
we retraced that 12 months
Based upon this chart - we are going to $15 or so......

However, even if this happens......

There are going to be massive spikes in both directions, and make this market difficult and dangerous. (Silver always has been more volatile than gold.)
  • #14,140
  • Jul 8, 2012 6:50am Jul 8, 2012 6:50am
Quoting Bones
might be easier to see on 12 months ,no way were going back to 50 without fall in my eyes
we retraced that 12 months
Look at the 2008 candle that one didn't work out too well, either, did it.
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