Macroeconomic Analysis

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Some notes/charts about Financial Stress Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous 2011-study; previous Summation study.

In this post there are some notes about a personal curve (about in phase vs. underlyings), obtained by r-spread between NYSE Summation Indicator (Adj. format) vs. US TED spread (3mo. curve).
The key elements of the attached chart I are the followings:
I.a) from the top of 2010 we can see a descending-array of curve with high slope (red channel), except for 2012 top (white channel), in divergence vs. underlyings (negative sign);
I.b) lows of curve in 2010 are in-line vs. 2008 lows (divergence behaviour: negative sign);
I.c) lows of curve in 2010 > 2011 (divergence behaviour: negative sign);
I.d) lows of curve in 2012 < 2010 (divergence behaviour: negative sign);
I.e) actual value of curve < 0 level (negative sign);
The additional key elements of the attached chart II are the followings:
II.a) recent ema-knot very bearish (structural increase of financial stress);
II.b) full descending test of 0 level;
II.c) lows of curve in 2010 well above actual lows and 2011 lows !!! (structural divergence behaviour: negative sign);
II.d) 2011 lows about in-line with previous 2008-lows of curve (structural divergence behaviour: negative sign);

Annotations:
U.S. stocks-market shows increasing financial stress in the sequence of tops 2010/2011/2012, and in the sequence of lows 2010/2011 (compare to 2008), in divergence vs. price-evolution of underlyings.
Curve evolution now shows mid-short term important sign of financial stress increase, according to value below 0-level (chart I); for this reason there is an important alert about the full descending test of 0-level in the chart II (long-term format).
Only curve above 0-level can stop this pattern of financial stress increase inside U.S. stocks-market; the real stop of financial stress increase there will be only above the previous 2012-top !!!

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

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Some notes/charts about Precious benchmarks & spreads.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some notes about some benchmarks of precious metals.
Charts are in two format: up (I) in simply & linear ema-format (weekly frame); down (II) in long-term & linear ema-format (daily frame).
See some ETF on precious metals: (charts & data).
Chart source: StockCharts.

The RYDEX precious metals is a stocks-based index; the key elements are the followings:
-) main trend is bullish, with two big pauses in 2008 and in 2011/2012 (see continuous & dotted white lines);
-) megalithic bullish cup 1996/2006, with a completion of the bullish target (see the gray-dotted zone);
-) actual price-evolution in full descending test of previous cup-neck (or the 1996 top levels);
-) important & bearish ema-knot on long-term chart (red circle);
-) theoretical bullish cup in action is the deep 2008/2011; price now are in full test of 50% of price-space of the cup, in wonder set-up with the neck of previous cup (neck as 1996-top level).
Actual price are in full test on the main set-up area of the chart (pink-area: dotted & white ascending line vs. neck from top of 1996 vs. red descending from 2008 top).
Prices below (consistently & persistently) this set-up area, shows two targets: continuous ascending line (base of channel); lows of 2005 !!!
Prices above (consistently & persistently), or in continuation-bull above this set-up area, shows two targets: 2008-tops; 2011-tops.
Alert with prices well above the tops of 2008, because of giant cup 2008/2011 in bullish-action (56$ above 80$ of 2008-tops).

The S&P GSCI precious metals is a commodity-based index; the key elements are the followings:
-) index shows a monster bullish action, without important descending lines !!!
-) an important structure is the bullish H&S 2008/2009 (see: gray-area; gray column as target);
-) from 2001/2002, there are only bullish ema-knots on long-term format;
-) at the 2011/2012 apex (dark-red area) there is a GraphicalContest between a bearish H&S vs. bullish multiple lows, with a theoretical bearish target as dark-red column, and a theoretical bullish target at 3300$ !!!
Alert on the apex neck (about 2100$); the theoretical bearish target do not break the structural bullish-array of index, because it is well above the neck of previous H&S 2008/2009.

The r-spread between S&P GSCI precious vs. industrial metals; this curve or indicator is about contrarian to underlyings main trend; the key elements are the followings:
-) bullish cup 2003/2008 with the price-target as the gray colmn;
-) robust & structural bullish-array of indicator as we can see from the high slope white channel;
-) actual top of chart (2009/2011 according to chart I or II) above the 2X target of previous 2003/2008 cup;
-) cup 'in progress' 2009/2011 with different level of evolution, according to I or II chart-format.
This indicator shows a first important alert because of the continuation-bull od curve, contrarian to main trend of underlyings; a second alert is the giant cup 2009/2011, in full ascending test on neck according to cimple chart (I), but in preliminary bullish sign according to long-term chart (II).
Possible bullish targets of this giant cup are: 9.4 pt. (price-area: low of cup until to 2011-top); 10.6 pt. (price-area: low of cup until to 2009-top).
This indicator shows graphical elements similar to Au/Pt spread.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

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Some notes/charts about D.J. Precious Metal Index.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous study on Precious Benchmarks.

In this post there are some notes about some benchmarks of precious metals: D.J. Precious Metals Index (chart source: BigCharts).


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...045&mocktick=1
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...045&mocktick=1
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...045&mocktick=1

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Some notes/charts about D.J./U.B.S. Precious Metals Index.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous study on precious benchmarks: S&P GSCI Precious Metals Index -- D.J. Precious Metals Index.

The D.J./U.B.S. Precious Metals Index (chart source: StockCharts) shows a graphical structure very very similar to S&P GSCI Precious Metals Index.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

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Some notes/charts about Au Indexes.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some Au Indexes in order to show some giant yearly inside structures ''in progress'', very similar to D.J. Precious Metals Index (DJGSP).
The benchmarks used are the followings:
ARCA Gold Bugs Index or HUI;
Philadelphia Gold & SIilver Index or XAU;
D.J. US Gold Mining Index or DJUSPM;
Nyse Gold Miners Index or GDM.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

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Some notes/charts about U.S. Bond Yield Spreads.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

The spread between BAA vs. AAA U.S. Corporate Bond Yields (according to Moody's data) is a stress indicator for financial markets, about contrarian to main trend of underlyings.
In the attached charts there are two spread formats (difference and ratio) and two frames (Charts I-II from 1920; Charts III-IV from 1960).
Previous 2011-chart.
-) Actual top of 2012 is about in-line with previous key-tops of curve (see circled levels); this is an important alert for the stress level inside the financial markets.
-) There are divergences in top & lows of curve vs. lows & tops of underlyings of 2010/2011/2012.
-) The global array of curve is bullish (see red trend-lines), with ascending tops '82 & '08 (see particularly r-spread).
-) A litthe bullish cup is visible on long-term chart (white-area) with a completed (& more) target.
-) There is a giant & theoretical cup 'in progress' (gree-area), with a monster bullish target, and with a stop of bullish-action only below the ''20 decade level of lows.
A continuation-bull of curve above the circled-levels, will cause greater increase of financial stress in the underlyings.

The Option-Adjusted d-Spread is a stress indicator for financial markets, about contrarian to main trend of underlyings (Charts V-VIII).
Previous 2011-charts.
-) As we can see, the dark-red cups have obtained the bullish target during the MeltDown of underlyings in 2008/2009, or the SkyRocket of curve.
-) The 3 simple curve (AAA, BBB, CCC) shows increasing value during 2009/2010/2011, in divergence-behaviour vs. underlyings ascending lows.
-) This is also showed by the average-curve, with a clear ascending structure (see blue-lines).
Actual values are about in-line with the I & II quarters of 2008, and this is an alert if there will be a continuation-bull above this level.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

H! Mr. S.Noel.
I agree with you.

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Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
Previous post.

The benchmarks of this posts are the following:
IXG (data & chart);
DJUSFN (data & chart);
IAI (data & chart);
EUFN (data & chart).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
Previous post.

The benchmarks used are the above ''global U.S. stocks-benchmarks''.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
Previous post.

The benchmarks used are the above ''global World stocks-benchmarks''.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
Previous post.

The benchmarks used are the above ''main U.S. stocks-benchmarks''.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

The benchmarks used are some main Au-based ETF.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

The benchmarks used are some main metal ETF.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

The benchmarks used are some main Tech.-ETF vs QQQ.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

The benchmarks used are some main iShares MSCI European Indexes:
EWI (jun.2012 (P&F) -- apr.2012)
EWG
EWK
EWL
EWN
EWO
EWP
EWQ
EWU

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1

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❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about €/US$.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

A very long-term chart of €/US$ (see previous study).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

Source: elliottgannforecasting.com
http://www.elliottgannforecasting.co...roCollapse.GIF
Source: post n.535
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1337941123
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1337941254
Source: personal & actual elaboration

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Some notes/charts about Aluminium (Al).

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous 2010-chart -- 2009-chart.
► Some ETF Al-based.
► RT-prices: US$/lb -- US$/mt -- €/mt -- ¥/mt.

In this post there are some notes about Aluminium [ Al ].
The first chart is a semilog. monthly of secular price-evolution of Al (not up-dated).
The second is the PPI-Adj. of the previous first chart (not up-dated).
The III chart is the linear price-evolution of Al from 1989.
The IV chart is the r-spread between Al vs. Cu.
The V two charts are the long-term (I.M.F. source) price-evolution of Al, and its r-spread vs. Au;
The last two chart (VI) are the DJ US Aluminium Index in linear ema-format (simply, up; long-term, down).
The main graphical elements are the followings:
-) secular-array is in bullish status, but in reversal attempt, as we can see both from the lows of 2009 (below the blue channel of chart I), and from the full descending test of the base of blue-channel in 2012;
-) long-medium term trend shows important descending-array of key historical tops (1988 > 2006-spike > 2008 > 2011);
-) actual prices are below the levels of tops 1980, 1990, 1995 (bad structural sign);
-) actual prices in full descending test of the binary blue-line from 1999 & 2002 lows (bad structural sign);
-) structural-array of charts of r-spreads Al vs. Au & Cu shows a MeltDown of Al-strength;
-) price-structure of 2009-2012 shows a local GraphicalContest between a bearish H&S vs. bullish multiple-lows, based on neck as lows of 2010; area is in dark-red, and the two price-targets are showed as dark-red columns.
Key elements of charts.
A continuation-bear of prices below the pink set-up of chart III, and below 2010-lows, will cause a SellOff toward the down target of the 2009/2012 GraphicalContest, inside the red & basal set-up (1.0/1.2$ about). This event is very dangerous for a long-term view of price-structure of Al, because of collapse of ascending giant blue rectangle (chart I).
With prices below the lows of 1982/1985, there is an increases of the risk of metal-MeltDown.
Prices above the pink set-up of 2009/2012 GraphicalContest, stops the bear in action, with a first target at test of main descending line (link of tops 1988, 2006, 2007, 2011). Only above the top of 2011 there will be the reversal of GraphicalContest, with target as dark-red column (3.5$ about).
The DJ US Aluminium Index shows a very important and about complete bearish structure.
According to secular Al chart (I), it is possible recognize a long-term operating pattern:
a) if the 1988 top is the apex of wave n.5 (bull-start: 1946), Al prices now are in a primary bearish phase, with 'A' wave as 1988/1993, 'B' as 1993/2006-2008, and 'C' in progress, with a possible final (%-only) target at 777.9$ (see 1920-top !!!);
b) if the 1988 top is the apex of wave n.3 (bull-start: 1946), Al prices now are in a secondary bearish phase, with a possible target at 1.2/0.9$ (already obtained in 1990 or in 2009; now in a new wave of re-test ???); in this model, the Al will not go below 0.9$, and the final target of wave n.5 will be 8-10$ (???).
According to these data, the Al-prices GraphicalƉetonator is the 2009/2012 GraphicalContest.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
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Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
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►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖

Some notes/charts about ZEW & IFO Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► European benchmarks (general; single countries);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
See also the ZEW Zephyr Indicator.


The main graphical elements of ZEW curves are as follows.
► Previous study sep.2011.
The 6mo. indicator shows very important anticipatory behavior (see yellow boxes as main turns of economic trends), with some important divergences (see triangle-markers).
The 0-line is a confirmation-pivot for trend-reversals.
The indicator spread 'Current' vs. '6mo.' is an interesting contrarian indicator: if there is an increased values of the spread, Germany shows a decreasing array of economic status.
The 6mo. indicator in IV quarter of 2011 was in full descending test of previous double lows of 2008.
From 2011-lows, this indicator goes toward 0-line (with a little & local bullish signs: green-circle on spread; curve above 0-line) and then again in continuation-bear toward an important set-up zone (see gray-area on 6mo. curve).
A continuation-bear below gray set-up area is a very dangerous sign for DEUT.-economy.
A decrease of 'Current' vs. '6mo.' spread is very important in order to decrease the financial stress of these curve. A second step there will be with 6mo. curve > 0-line.
According to these indicators, German and European economy shows now a bearish-array, with a possible great increase of financial stress (gray set-up zone).

From the ⒾⒻⓄ DataBaseCharts we can see the following graphical elements.
► Previous studies: oct.2011 -- jan.2012 -- apr.2012
-) The World Average Ind. showed an important SellOff toward 1998-2001/2002 lows, with curve well below long-term mid-line; now is in a recovery up-side, againg in negative values, and toward long-term mid-line. The spread between 6mo. curve vs. actual curve is positive !!!
-) Europe Ind. shows an array of curve very similar to World Ind.
-) North America Average Ind. showed an important SellOff toward 1998-2001/2002 lows, with curve well below mid-line; now the recovery phase goes above the long-term mid-line.
-) Asia Average Ind. shows a Pyroclastic divergence between tops of 2010 > 2011 (and also > 2012); actual values are in full ascending test of long-term mid-line.
-) Deut.IFO-Empl. shows a distribution structure in 2011/2012 ??? The global array of tops are very impressive (positive for underlyings).
-) IFO Credit Stress Ind. shows a not-stressed structure of curves; follows the knot marked in red for a dangerous reversal.
According to these indicators, there is an important attempt to recovery & reversal of curves, after the SellOff 2011/2012.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

Moody's Investors Service has today downgraded Italy's government bond rating to Baa2 from A3. How much do you think this will influence on EUR or Europian stocks on short or long term?

Hi.
The data of rating agencies are not 'in-time' vs. stocks-markets, but they are already in the market sentiment.

Sorry for my bad English.