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S/D Zones, risk ratio = 3

  • #41
  • Jul 6, 2012 6:39am Jul 6, 2012 6:39am
Quoting landre
Sell @1.2420 SL : 1.2437 TP : 1.236
Buy @1.236 SL 1.2345 TP 1.242
These two orders are cancelled...NFP is coming.

Some news from the fixed income market :
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPG10YR:IND
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND

Spanish bond yield comes back above the 7%...the Draghi's speech yesterday was alarmist. BCE doesn't want to use any new unconventional stuff so that's not a good news for Europe. Maybe BCE just wants to get the EUR down to have a kind of devaluation (pure assumption..).
  • #42
  • Jul 6, 2012 8:08am Jul 6, 2012 8:08am
Quoting landre
ADP vs NFP

As you can see on the picture below, during the last 2 years around half of the times ADP and NFP were different from each other. In most of the cases, ADP is better than expected and the NFP dissapoints.

Well let's see what happens today !
I was totally wrong about NFP.
NFP disappointing...but not enough to expect QE...


Quote
Sell @80.04
SL 80.20
TP 79.83
TP hitted : +21 pips (lucky one with the news so..)

I try a small one on the NZDUSD :
Buy @0.7988
SL 0.7980
TP not really defined.. I will move SL to BE quickly and I am watching closely how PA behaves.
  • #43
  • Jul 6, 2012 9:54am Jul 6, 2012 9:54am
Quoting landre
NZDUSD :
Buy @0.7988
SL 0.7980
Useless one..I have closed it at BE.

Trades of the week (02/07/12-06/07/12) :

EURUSD
Sell @1.264
TP : 1.2585
Stop : 1.2655 : - 15 pips

EURJPY
Sell @100.63
TP : 100.00
Stop : 100.78 : - 15 pips
Comments : Both trades were is the right move of the day but my entries were too early and I got stopped.

USDCAD
Buy @1.0163
TP : 1.0205
SL : 1.0145 : - 18 pips
Comments : My TP was above the closer 1H supply, the pair reached that zone and then went down. I should have used this 1h supply
as TP.

EURJPY
Sell @100.61
TP : 99.90
SL : 100.79 : - 18 pips
Comments : There was a spike to 100.82 and then the pair went down..according to my tight SL I should work on a better entry (again).

NZDUSD
Sell @0.8054
TP : 0.8000
SL : 0.8072 then moved to BE : 0 pip
Comments : the pair has been ranging between 0.801x and 0.806. I should have set my TP to this 0.801 demand zone. I could have
used those zones at least for several trades during the last 3 days..

USDJPY
Sell @80.04
SL 80.20
TP 79.65 then moved to 79.83 for the NFP news : + 21 pips
Comments : Well my initial TP would have been hitted but anyway the entry on this trade was pretty good. The only winner of the week...

NZDUSD
Buy @0.7988
SL 0.7980 moved to BE : 0 pip
Comments : Counter-trend useless one..

This week : - 45 pips (5 losers - 1 winner).

That's pretty bad but well one winner could erase this loss..

See you on monday,

Enjoy the week-end,
  • #44
  • Jul 9, 2012 2:35am Jul 9, 2012 2:35am
Hello,

Second week of this thread, I hope this one is going to better than the last one.

Last week, I take some good trades but I should have used more my S/D zones to take my profit.

Let's start this week with the 1h chart for the EURUSD. All the demand zones were broken last week, we may see a retracement this week to the 1.2350 zone (4h supply).

I add the EURJPY chart which is a bit similar (retest of the old demand daily ?)

PS : sorry for the EURJPY I let the "demand" instead of "supply"..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 1h 2012.07.09.png Size: 75 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy 1h 2012.07.09.png Size: 78 KB
  • #45
  • Jul 9, 2012 2:39am Jul 9, 2012 2:39am
About the NZDUSD, the range 80.00-80.60 was broken on friday and now it is stuck in a 4h demand zone, it could be a good opportunity for a long one..I am waiting a bit. I am a bit afraid by the bad figures in Chinese economy.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd 4h 2012.07.09.png Size: 72 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd 1h 2012.07.09.png Size: 81 KB
  • #46
  • Edited 3:05am Jul 9, 2012 2:43am | Edited 3:05am
Last chart for today, the USDCAD..It went back in the range : 1.016-1.0205..I will trade this range till it breaks.

I have a chart for the USDJPY also but it's a mess.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 1h 2012.07.09.png Size: 73 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy 1h 2012.07.09.png Size: 82 KB
  • #47
  • Jul 9, 2012 3:04am Jul 9, 2012 3:04am
Quoting landre
Last chart for today, the USDCAD..It went back in the range : 1.016-1.0205..I will trade this range till it breaks.
USDCAD
Sell @1.0205
TP 1.016
SL 1.02023
  • #48
  • Jul 10, 2012 1:29am Jul 10, 2012 1:29am
Quoting landre
USDCAD
Sell @1.0205
TP 1.016
SL 1.02023
Still in that trade, I let my supply zone drawn yesterday. As you can see the supply around 1.0205 has been tested and it went above and came back down to test 1.0190.
I was a bit surprised by the Asian session, I did not expect so bad Chinese data..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad 1h 2012.07.10.png Size: 73 KB
  • #49
  • Jul 10, 2012 1:39am Jul 10, 2012 1:39am
Yesterday I take a long on the EURUSD (I could not post it sorry)

EURUSD
Buy @1.2281
SL 1.2268 (below the yesterday London session low)
TP 1.2350 (supply 4h)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 1h 2012.07.10.png Size: 76 KB
  • #50
  • Jul 10, 2012 1:41am Jul 10, 2012 1:41am
Last chart for today, the NZDUSD. Yesterday the pair went down next to my 4h demand...I was waiting for the 0.7925 but it bounced on the 0.7930 well it did not matter I am already enough exposed to the USD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd 1h 2012.07.10.png Size: 79 KB
  • #51
  • Jul 10, 2012 3:31am Jul 10, 2012 3:31am
Very slow this morning...
On the EURUSD, the 1.228 looks important, it has held since the London open..we need an hourly close above the 1.2302 and then we should see at least a retest of the 1.232x.
  • #52
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:38am Jul 10, 2012 4:38am
Quoting landre
USDCAD
Sell @1.0205
TP 1.016
SL 1.02023

EURUSD
Buy @1.2281
SL 1.2268 (below the yesterday London session low)
TP 1.2350 (supply 4h)
Both SL moved to BE.
  • #53
  • Jul 10, 2012 5:10am Jul 10, 2012 5:10am
u hand drawing the supply or demand lines , or using indicator like supdem or else.
  • #54
  • Jul 10, 2012 5:46am Jul 10, 2012 5:46am
Quoting vasude
u hand drawing the supply or demand lines , or using indicator like supdem or else.
I hand draw supply/demand zones, I did not know that there were some indicators..but well I prefer doing this manually..

On the EUR/USD first test of the 1.233x (15m chart consolidation zone during the drop on friday). It should bounce on the 1.2311 (consolidation today 15m chart before the first attempt to 1.233x).

USDCAD is well behaving not far from my TP ..
  • #55
  • Jul 10, 2012 6:29am Jul 10, 2012 6:29am
here it is the indi..it will draw lines
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 SupDem.ex4   13 KB | 218 downloads
  • #56
  • Jul 10, 2012 7:00am Jul 10, 2012 7:00am
Quoting vasude
here it is the indi..it will draw lines
Okay thank you, I will test it to compare with my S/D zones.

Quoting landre
On the EUR/USD first test of the 1.233x (15m chart consolidation zone during the drop on friday). It should bounce on the 1.2311 (consolidation today 15m chart before the first attempt to 1.233x).
Wrong on that one..it doesn't look good for my trades..
  • #57
  • Jul 10, 2012 7:28am Jul 10, 2012 7:28am
Quoting landre
USDCAD
Sell @1.0205
TP 1.016
SL 1.02023

EURUSD
Buy @1.2281
SL 1.2268 (below the yesterday London session low)
TP 1.2350 (supply 4h)
Quoting landre
Both SL moved to BE.
Both stopped out...0 pip.
  • #58
  • Jul 10, 2012 8:11am Jul 10, 2012 8:11am
EURUSD

Sell @1.2280
TP 1.2230
SL 1.2295 : I think if we break the 1.228x, it should retest the 1.233x

Reasons : big drop on the last 3 hours then retest of this morning low (1.2280) so i expect another drop to test the year's low.
  • #59
  • Edited 10:33am Jul 10, 2012 10:16am | Edited 10:33am
Quoting landre
EURUSD

Sell @1.2280
TP 1.2230
SL 1.2295 : I think if we break the 1.228x, it should retest the 1.233x

Reasons : big drop on the last 3 hours then retest of this morning low (1.2280) so i expect another drop to test the year's low.
I have to work on my entries...
I did not like what I did but I moved my SL to 1.2300 so it did not get hitted..now it looks like it was a good idea. I don't really like the fact that I still sometimes break one of the fundamental rule of trading : don't move your SL.
I hope I could enjoy some profit this time..

PS : I am sorry not to post any chart during the day but I don't have access to MT4
  • #60
  • Jul 10, 2012 10:33am Jul 10, 2012 10:33am
hi landre,
which timeframe u used for trading .
today i sell eu at 1.2303
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