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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #34,661
  • Jul 3, 2012 2:57pm Jul 3, 2012 2:57pm
Quoting eblip
..its frustrating to have to take lets say 4 years to get up to speed ...whereas if they would just give me the break ....i could be up to speed and top performer in less than 18 months.
The market is a tough teacher. Be warn....mindset mindset warning...good luck.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #34,662
  • Jul 3, 2012 2:59pm Jul 3, 2012 2:59pm
Quoting eblip
but price HAS TO retrace at some point...even if just a little.
the first retrace can be 200 pips later, how does your MM look then?

the price will do whatever she likes.. have you seen the movie Great Expectations?
  • #34,663
  • Jul 3, 2012 3:09pm Jul 3, 2012 3:09pm
Quoting eblip
thank you fti..
the markets are teaching me.

right i did my first dance a usd cad short

ready to do battle..comentary

theory is i should be able to make this trade eventually profitable no matter what happens in the near future...as long as i manage the trade properly ...i should come out pips in at the end of the day...
i may have to send in some rescue troops (orders at some stage) but by time i close this trade...should be profitable..
hopefully highly profitable..but market conditions not too hot today for big profits.

entry...
honestly can you look at the chart and tell what you did wrong?

the wrong thing to do would be to assume you did everything right just because you managed to get out of the market with dry feet.

did you read and understood fti's response? he was too gentle in my opinion, so you might have misread him.

sorry, I am reading the thread backwards. Latest posts first.
  • #34,664
  • Jul 3, 2012 3:19pm Jul 3, 2012 3:19pm
Quoting almo
Were you ever in position to complete a rescue? Or did every attempt cause more soldiers to go down?
yes i was in a position to complete a rescue but i didnt feel i needed to .
i was dancing on the 5 minute chart euro when things got bearish.
i entered a scout shorted eur usd....and things then got more bearish.
so i put in my trade.

from there things got bullish pretty soon after i clicked my order...but it was fine....i decided that i was unsure...
so i tried to take all my profit on my trade position....but it was requoted and rejected...then price was moving up ...and i was still in profit...and i tried again to take profit and got requoted again.
by now my small profit that was going to be a quick profit cushion for my scout...was a tiny bit negative..

so i thought ...ill hold on ..im not giving broker money...then things got
really bullish...and it carried my "quick profits" rapidly into the negative...maybe 5 percent drawdown on my account.

so i.look on the daily chart.
daily chart was definitley looking bullish..then i wished i had just given my broker his pennies and taken a tiny loss...

i then had mixed feelings about my position and thought that it had run too far now for a decent rescue...and that it looked like it was losing steam on the bullish climb...and i felt it would come back down to entry price..

i thought i may do a rescue on the way down and maybe make some profit...
but the daily chart had spooked me.
and i became unsure of what the best move would be.

so i decided to let the price rally down to about 1 percent drawdown and pull the plug on the trade..as i needed to leave the computer.
so i waited...pulled the plug and left in my tiny scout..
when i came back scout was just in profit ...just..and i thought ...ill pull him out...

and then i checked myself that i need to start gettting my bias right on entry..the dance said bear...yet the hourly chart said bulll.

maybe i should not have taken the deal.

the confusion started when i started looking at multiple timeframes.

so i dont know now..i am in a bit of confusion on how to decide my bias for trade entry.

cheers

i have much to learn.
  • #34,665
  • Jul 3, 2012 3:27pm Jul 3, 2012 3:27pm
Quoting eblip
yes i was in a position to complete a rescue but i didnt feel i needed to .
i was dancing on the 5 minute chart euro when things got bearish.
i entered a scout shorted eur usd....and things then got more bearish.
so i put in my trade.

from there things got bullish pretty soon after i clicked my order...but it was fine....i decided that i was unsure...
so i tried to take all my profit on my trade position....but it was requoted and rejected...then price was moving up ...and i was still in profit...and i tried again to take profit and got requoted...
I hope you are doing it on demo or a tiny live account.. as you said, much to learn.

but it will not be a straight road..
  • #34,666
  • Jul 3, 2012 3:28pm Jul 3, 2012 3:28pm
Quoting piccolo
I hope you are doing it on demo or a tiny live account.. as you said, much to learn.

but it will not be a straight road..
yes tiny live account...demo doesnt kick in my adrenaline....plus greed issues i need to learn also on real money....fear .. etc.
  • #34,667
  • Jul 3, 2012 3:30pm Jul 3, 2012 3:30pm
Quoting eblip
yes i was in a position to complete a rescue but i didnt feel i needed to .
i was dancing on the 5 minute chart euro when things got bearish.
i entered a scout shorted eur usd....and things then got more bearish.
so i put in my trade.

from there things got bullish pretty soon after i clicked my order...but it was fine....i decided that i was unsure...
so i tried to take all my profit on my trade position....but it was requoted and rejected...then price was moving up ...and i was still in profit...and i tried again to take profit and got requoted...


This might sound like a strange question - when you look at a chart...how many bars are you looking at to determine when you are placing your trade?


I should clarify - here is a sample of what I am talking about



for you - is this enough information for you to make the trade?
Attached Image
  • #34,668
  • Jul 3, 2012 3:30pm Jul 3, 2012 3:30pm
Quoting luSan
The market is a tough teacher. Be warn....mindset mindset warning...good luck.
thank you lusan..yes i need to correct mindset...clarity and conviction......confidence
  • #34,669
  • Edited 4:07pm Jul 3, 2012 3:35pm | Edited 4:07pm
Quoting almo
This might sound like a strange question - when you look at a chart...how many bars are you looking at to determine when you are placing your trade?
i trade several timeframes...this 5 minute time frame is new to me...but it is the most alive...sometimes makes me jump...as it is much bigger scale. (usually trade 1 hr 4 hr daily chart combo ...and entry on 5 minute only)..trading decision based on 5 minute time feel is new to me..to be clear.


i look at say what has happened over the last day or 2 on 5 minute chart...then i zoom into the last 8 hours or so on screen and that is where i dance.
so in 8 hours = 40 candles on screen..
last candle is clear and nice size can see it move...plus some receent history i can see...for patterns and formations...wicks and engulfing and pinbars and stuff...if i think i need more picture then i zoom in and out maybe 200 candles back to 100 back to 500.....just to get a feel.

this is sample of typical look at on my screen.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sample.jpg Size: 84 KB

i keep eye open for support and resistance that i determined from when i was really zoomed out...and stuff like that. plus i normally like oto go long on swing low...and short on swing high..but that is ideal...not always ideal.

hehe ..alamo thanks for your help...but did you think i was basing my trades on this.
screen
Attached Image
  • #34,670
  • Jul 3, 2012 4:08pm Jul 3, 2012 4:08pm
Quoting eblip
i trade several timeframes...this 5 minute time frame is new to me...but it is the most alive...sometimes makes me jump...as it is much bigger scale. (usually trade 1 hr 4 hr daily chart combo ...and entry on 5 minute only)..trading decision based on 5 minute time feel is new to me..to be clear.


i look at say what has happened over the last day or 2 on 5 minute chart...then i zoom into the last 8 hours or so on screen and that is where i dance.
so in 8 hours = 40 candles on screen..
last candle is clear and nice size can see it move...plus...

Ok...just curious. I am finding myself comparing current bar vs last 3 bars for all my trades.
  • #34,671
  • Jul 3, 2012 4:09pm Jul 3, 2012 4:09pm
Quoting eblip
hehe ..alamo thanks for your help...but did you think i was basing my trades on this.
screen Attachment

Not at all....in fact, your doing what most people do.
  • #34,672
  • Jul 3, 2012 4:14pm Jul 3, 2012 4:14pm
Quoting almo
Ok...just curious. I am finding myself comparing current bar vs last 3 bars for all my trades.
do you find much success with such information 3 bars...what about the bigger picture the compound candles..waves..possible levels...etc...engulfing bars....and attempts to break prices and things like that...does that not impact the trade..

does it not make a difference where in the chart the 3 bars occur.

im curious...as to how you trade them.
  • #34,673
  • Edited 5:33pm Jul 3, 2012 5:06pm | Edited 5:33pm
Quoting eblip
do you find much success with such information 3 bars...what about the bigger picture the compound candles..waves..possible levels...etc...engulfing bars....and attempts to break prices and things like that...does that not impact the trade..

does it not make a difference where in the chart the 3 bars occur.

im curious...as to how you trade them.
Don't be curious about anyone's style, find you own. for m5 chart 1 hour chart is enough imo, the rest is information overload at your beginners level.

Is daily trend up? am I missing something. Do 1, 2 or 3 up bars make it uptrend?

You need lot of work to do before you do trading.

5% DD could easily turn 50% in seconds if you don't know what you are doing. You have problem with your position size or you are under capitalized.

It is a no biased trading remember that.
  • #34,674
  • Jul 3, 2012 5:11pm Jul 3, 2012 5:11pm
Quoting almo
Were you ever in position to complete a rescue? Or did every attempt cause more soldiers to go down?
What? complete rescue. Rescue is complete when succesful.
  • #34,675
  • Jul 3, 2012 5:43pm Jul 3, 2012 5:43pm
oops, energies not like they used to be.
dossed off.
I should be sacked, sleeping on the job like this.

now,, still have some scouts in.....in lots trouble.
ok, need patience extradite them.

regards
  • #34,676
  • Jul 3, 2012 5:45pm Jul 3, 2012 5:45pm
Quoting eblip
yes i was in a position to complete a rescue but i didnt feel i needed to .
i was dancing on the 5 minute chart euro when things got bearish.
i entered a scout shorted eur usd....and things then got more bearish.
so i put in my trade.

from there things got bullish pretty soon after i clicked my order...but it was fine....i decided that i was unsure...
so i tried to take all my profit on my trade position....but it was requoted and rejected...then price was moving up ...and i was still in profit...and i tried again to take profit and got requoted...
oh my goodness, rushing.

regards
  • #34,677
  • Jul 3, 2012 5:48pm Jul 3, 2012 5:48pm
Quoting eblip
hi ...thanks ..its not the money thing ..thats not a problem...i only trade small...

its the millions of questions that i have that i know its gonna be hard to get answers to being such a subjective thing...you see im dedicated to this...im basically comitting my future to it...that decision is made and is final.

i just wish i could get a position in a trading room and see it all first hand...soak it up directly.

i know a few traders...and they are the ivy league boys...or the sons of lords......these guys just aint got the hunger...or...
Your probems had begun.
take 3 deep breaths, square your positions.
switch off the systems 1 week and take your scorpions for a walk about.
where appropriate dump them.

No one wants your dedication, only ability manage & make pips.
Why you looking to others, they sons of lords is their business.
Your business is to survive.

i no want see you for at least 1 week, get your head straight first.
too much emotional blocks.



regards
  • #34,678
  • Jul 3, 2012 5:48pm Jul 3, 2012 5:48pm
Quoting simpleman
What? complete rescue. Rescue is complete when succesful.


You are correct, but your not getting what I was asking


Eblip's response was that there were a couple opportunities, but he chose to not complete the rescue, but rather to attempt to transition to an attack.
  • #34,679
  • Jul 3, 2012 5:49pm Jul 3, 2012 5:49pm
I only recently started trading with the 3 bar method. I would recommend you don't go down this road.
  • #34,680
  • Jul 3, 2012 5:55pm Jul 3, 2012 5:55pm
Quoting almo
I only recently started trading with the 3 bar method. I would recommend you don't go down this road.
Then why you put it out for?
Would you like to perform brain surgery too?

Eblip just went stood at the edge of the cliff, thanks for helping him jump.
Lke i said, the moment you believe you good, your downfall begin.


regards
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