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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #34,621
  • Jul 2, 2012 10:58pm Jul 2, 2012 10:58pm
Quoting eblip
yes i did trade against trend..at the time i thought i was trading with the trend...because hourly chart looked like it was heading downwards..

now when i look at hourly chart it looks like higher highs...and lower lows...so i need to focus on reading trend correctly.

reason i did it was because before i entered the trade it was double bottom, and it looked like price attempting tripple bottom with conviction..i thought bottom will not hold for third time...and put scout in to get strong position on breakthrough at the third attempt at the bottom.

but...
http://content.screencast.com/users/...07-03_1054.png

700 pips straight without retrace. I'll be more than happy to see it hit my stoploss at 30 pips rather than a margin call Yes, I'm undercapitalized but most traders are
  • #34,622
  • Edited 11:29pm Jul 2, 2012 11:05pm | Edited 11:29pm
Quoting duyk20
http://content.screencast.com/users/...07-03_1054.png

700 pips straight without retrace. I'll be more than happy to see it hit my stoploss at 30 pips rather than a margin call Yes, I'm undercapitalized but most traders are
yeap, thats why you not want sit on a game with 2 players only.
takes lots anchovies feed a whale.
some news hit the wire i suspect.
Looks like musical chairs to me.

chocolates make easy sugar high huh?
no change in volume?
its the stops did that.
likely all stops filled at the gap peak.
ya you expect fills where stop was? unlikely.

ok lesson on stops.
stop loss order= market fill at besst if stop price is trrigered.
from look of it,was fast market situation, so stops price not held, unenforceable.
but you can try sue. but read your account contract carefully first.
any one have an account?
oh the risk disclosure statement also.
you know why they say your losses can exceed the moneys you deposited, when with same breath they say that if you reach call margin point you will be stopped out?

I believe some would word it, "next available price in the market".

regards
  • #34,623
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:13pm Jul 2, 2012 11:13pm
Quoting duyk20
http://content.screencast.com/users/...07-03_1054.png

700 pips straight without retrace. I'll be more than happy to see it hit my stoploss at 30 pips rather than a margin call Yes, I'm undercapitalized but most traders are

hi then in that situation if lose 5 or 10 percent of my equity it is because i am being rigid and not flexible.

i like to think if that was happening i would notice and be flexible...and pull out.

if it was just rocketing up then maybe i think ....you know what ..im gonna pull the plug on this one..it all depends on how the price is moving...that price must have been running up probably very little pull back on way up...

this would be a sign that it is extremely aggressive climb...so maybe if price was still jumping up even after 50 pips. then i would pull my scout...and lose less than 0.5 percent of account.

i dont have a set pattern..im not rigid..i will be watching market like a hawk...am prepared to be wrong and pull out with a loss...i have nothing to prove to the market or myself...i dont want to prove to market that i am right...my primary goal is to make money not lose it...so
i try and be nimble and read what is happening quickly.

and in above case..i like to think i would pull the plug on my scout.

the trade i did was 1 trade....the next will be completely different ..maybe i perform worse in next trade..that is a possibility...that was unique trade...never to be seen and done again...

my trading is going to be formless..that is my aim.....the only form it will have in a years time..is that it constantly makes money...apart from that everything else should be brand new every day....i expect to win some and lose some in the near future...not win win win ..not yet.

i think maybe you assume that i will always fight the good fight.

if i am definitely gonna lose..then lets make it short and fast....if maybe i can win..then lets fight...if i can definitely win..then lets fight..

thank you for sharing the pic ...it is an eye opener and has been noted.

i am aggressive ...but not crazy...and certainly not stupid.. ha ha.
  • #34,624
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:21pm Jul 2, 2012 11:21pm
good morning asia! just woke up to the rain.. ahhh.. beautiful. these few weeks of holiday is totally amazing.. everyday i'm trading! shiok!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2012-07-03 at 12.17.04 PM.png Size: 107 KB


when the price goes above the upper horizontal bar.. the hourly chart is killed... rescue no no.. flip and get the remaining 600 pips?

the rally was 700 pips in 3 hr. 1st hour give up... remaining 2 hrs to flip.. not bad la
  • #34,625
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:26pm Jul 2, 2012 11:26pm
Quoting eblip

i dont have a set pattern..im not rigid..i will be watching market like a hawk...am prepared to be wrong and pull out with a loss...i have nothing to prove to the market or myself...i dont want to prove to market that i am right...my primary goal is to make money not lose it...so
i try and be nimble and read what is happening quickly.
That's the hard part of it, easier said than done. However, if you can admit your are wrong and get out, great thing.

I used to having 20 consecutive winning streak without using stoploss, but one bad trade... It's just me since I don't have any proper rescue plan. Just saying that, not having stoploss or even mental stoploss is double-edge sword for any novice traders.
  • #34,626
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:31pm Jul 2, 2012 11:31pm
Quoting kinky
good morning asia! just woke up to the rain.. ahhh.. beautiful. these few weeks of holiday is totally amazing.. everyday i'm trading! shiok!

when the price goes above the upper horizontal bar.. the hourly chart is killed... rescue no no.. flip and get the remaining 600 pips?

the rally was 700 pips in 3 hr. 1st hour give up... remaining 2 hrs to flip.. not bad la
hehe, what if the mind said that they are looking for the sitting ducks?
  • #34,627
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:32pm Jul 2, 2012 11:32pm
Quoting kinky
good morning asia! just woke up to the rain.. ahhh.. beautiful. these few weeks of holiday is totally amazing.. everyday i'm trading! shiok!

Attachment

when the price goes above the upper horizontal bar.. the hourly chart is killed... rescue no no.. flip and get the remaining 600 pips?

the rally was 700 pips in 3 hr. 1st hour give up... remaining 2 hrs to flip.. not bad la

yes, provided you not like a deer in front of head lights, frozen.
the gaps and 1 bar 5 min runs, normally i cannot catch them. Normally already in before the run.
the exception is steady moving multiple bars.
For that run on the chart
i would still be making a small killing, as many scouts will be probing the rise with a large staggered army waiting for a retrace that never showed.


regards
  • #34,628
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:34pm Jul 2, 2012 11:34pm
Quoting duyk20
That's the hard part of it, easier said than done. However, if you can admit your are wrong and get out, great thing.

I used to having 20 consecutive winning streak without using stoploss, but one bad trade... It's just me since I don't have any proper rescue plan. Just saying that, not having stoploss or even mental stoploss is double-edge sword for any novice traders.

The problem I see here, is for the novice to get the experience to become the pro

The only way to get it, is to unfortunately, get burned a few times
  • #34,629
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:39pm Jul 2, 2012 11:39pm
Quoting almo
The problem I see here, is for the novice to get the experience to become the pro

The only way to get it, is to unfortunately, get burned a few times
nope.
i suggest if you novice , use no leverage.
and i not want hear about no capital please.

regards
  • #34,630
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:48pm Jul 2, 2012 11:48pm
Quoting fti
nope.
i suggest if you novice , use no leverage.
and i not want hear about no capital please.

regards
I agree with your 1st point


the 2nd - here's my dilemma


I'd rather blow out an account that is 100 while learning , than that of 1000

In my eyes - if there is any validity to this method, one should be able to keep an account alive , regardless of the size



I realize that I have < 1% chance of keeping an account of 100 alive , regardless of the method - but if I cannot learn how to manage an account of 100, I have no hope of managing one of 1000
  • #34,631
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:05am Jul 3, 2012 12:05am
Quoting almo
I agree with your 1st point


the 2nd - here's my dilemma


I'd rather blow out an account that is 100 while learning , than that of 1000

In my eyes - if there is any validity to this method, one should be able to keep an account alive , regardless of the size



I realize that I have < 1% chance of keeping an account of 100 alive , regardless of the method - but if I cannot learn how to manage an account of 100, I have no hope of managing one of 1000
use oanda! can trade with min of 1 unit. suitable for all account size anyway capital and leverage is the same if you ask me.. i use low leverage means i have relatively large capital
  • #34,632
  • Edited 12:28am Jul 3, 2012 12:11am | Edited 12:28am
Quoting almo
I agree with your 1st point


the 2nd - here's my dilemma


I'd rather blow out an account that is 100 while learning , than that of 1000

In my eyes - if there is any validity to this method, one should be able to keep an account alive , regardless of the size



I realize that I have < 1% chance of keeping an account of 100 alive , regardless of the method - but if I cannot learn how to manage an account of 100, I have no hope of managing one of 1000
???
what method you talking about?
You want gamble is your own business.
I in business , not gambling.
when i gamble i go casino.
Is easier, for the risk , double or nothing.
less time consuming and lots entertainment.

regards

Inserted Video


bets down.
and the winner is....
oops who stole my chips....while i peeping the can can girls.?
serve you right ...peeping the cans.
  • #34,633
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:23am Jul 3, 2012 12:23am
Quoting fti
???
what method you talking about?
You want gamble is your own business.
I in business , not gambling.

reagrds

AOW - aka 'the dance'


Forgive me for asking this - but isn't it quoted

Quote
The control of a large force is the same principle as the control of a few men: it is merely a question of dividing up their numbers.
?

Therefore - the size of your book should be irrelevant - the battlefield winner is determined by how the forces are divided (ie MM), and choosing the right battlefield (point in time , flow of the dance)
  • #34,634
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:26am Jul 3, 2012 12:26am
Quoting kinky
use oanda! can trade with min of 1 unit. suitable for all account size anyway capital and leverage is the same if you ask me.. i use low leverage means i have relatively large capital
Thanks Kinky - I am using Oanda actually - my scouts are a mere 9 units
  • #34,635
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:31am Jul 3, 2012 12:31am
Quoting almo
AOW - aka 'the dance'


Forgive me for asking this - but isn't it quoted

?

Therefore - the size of your book should be irrelevant - the battlefield winner is determined by how the forces are divided (ie MM), and choosing the right battlefield (point in time , flow of the dance)
Thats just trading mindset.
most not, they gambling and fortune tellers.

you read the thread yet?
a little knowledge is a dangerous thing.
Please make sure is not the holi cow.




regards
  • #34,636
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:43am Jul 3, 2012 12:43am
Quoting fti
Thats just trading mindset.
most not, they gambling and fortune tellers.

you read the thread yet?


regards
The 1st 300 pages - that covered AOW, ROT3K, and your live trading examples

I'd have to say,reading how you were applying AOW was what made me take the plunge and start trading this live
  • #34,637
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:49am Jul 3, 2012 12:49am
Quoting fti
get the scout right.
My scout is 1 lot per 100k. I'm beginning to think this is far too aggressive, and that I should focus more on getting the big attacks in and out when things are moving in my direction.

From your experience, what could happen in the market if a serious earthquake hit San Francisco, for example?
  • #34,638
  • Edited 1:22am Jul 3, 2012 1:09am | Edited 1:22am
Quoting AllanS
My scout is 1 lot per 100k. I'm beginning to think this is far too aggressive, and that I should focus more on getting the big attacks in and out when things are moving in my direction.

From your experience, what could happen in the market if a serious earthquake hit San Francisco, for example?
the ground would shake and all traders affected will leave the market.
And the fed will print more money fill the land holes.
Why?

i would be more worried if we have earthquake at north or south pole.
then where i live become north or south pole .
the problem is i not have any winter clothing.
mostly all very old and leaks.



regards
  • #34,639
  • Jul 3, 2012 1:11am Jul 3, 2012 1:11am
Quoting fti

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aiGG3Qb3NA

bets down.
and the winner is....
oops who stole my chips....while i peeping the can can girls.?
serve you right ...peeping the cans.
more peeping!

Inserted Video
  • #34,640
  • Edited 2:00am Jul 3, 2012 1:30am | Edited 2:00am
Quoting kinky
more peeping!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfGPZMqiT30
ai ya, earthquake?
shanghai nights at penang already?

I prefer shanghai nights stay in shanghai.
http://www.1ting.com/player/73/player_67834.html

If shanghai at penang, then i would be like somewhere in the Kunsa triangle?
ai ya still needs winter clothing . esp mosquito repellant.
need get lots lemon grass and catnip plant.

regards
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